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World Cup 2014

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PhGuy
06 Jul 14 17:42
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Date Joined: 07 Apr 06
| Topic/replies: 120 | Blogger: PhGuy's blog
Anyone has outright odds as they were when the group stage was over? That is, just before the round of 16 kicked off. I would appreciate any help.
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Report Makfi July 6, 2014 9:34 PM BST
Bookies    Betfair (-5%)

Brazil        16/5    3
Germany        4    21/5
Argentina    4    4
Netherlands    8    39/5
France        9    17/2
Colombia    20    18
Belgium        20    22
Mexico        33    33
Chile        33    35
Uruguay        40    51
Costa Rica    50    56
USA        80    89
Greece        125    123
Switzerland    125    142
Nigeria        250    256
Algeria        225    389
Report PhGuy July 6, 2014 10:05 PM BST
Thanks a lot for the reply. I have written a program that works "backwards" from the outright odds to give a "rating" to each team. Here are the results if anyone is interested:

BRA 1902.822
GER 1851.355
ARG 1831.561
FRA 1800.446
NED 1783.739
COL 1763.163
CHI 1736.203
BEL 1709.290
URU 1700.328
MEX 1689.723
COS 1638.122
USA 1627.500
SUI 1606.537
NIG 1597.891
GRE 1595.072
ALG 1575.903

Also, here are the ratings using the current (semi-finals) odds:

GER 1630.511
ARG 1629.246
BRA 1627.500
NED 1594.521

(Note that only the difference between ratings matters, and not the absolute values).

To find what chance each team has of qualifying against each other simply find the difference in their ratings and use this graph to get the odds of qualification:

http://fooplot.com/#W3sidHlwZSI6MCwiZXEiOiIoMStlXigteC8xNzApKSIsImNvbG9yIjoiIzAwMDAwMCJ9LHsidHlwZSI6MTAwMCwid2luZG93IjpbIjAiLCI4NTAiLCIxIiwiMiJdfV0-
Report PhGuy July 6, 2014 10:14 PM BST
If anyone has the odds between the quarter finals, that would be great too... I could extract some nice data from there.
Report Makfi July 6, 2014 10:22 PM BST
Before QFs ...

    Bookies    Betfair (-5%)
Brazil    3    14/5
Argentina    4    21/5
Germany    9/2    23/5
Netherlands    5    5
France    8    39/5
Colombia    12    64/5
Belgium    14    64/5
Costa Rica    66    80
Report wallis July 6, 2014 11:17 PM BST
So what would be the odds on the final if

Germany  v  Holland
Germany  v  Argentina
Brazil   v  Holland
Brazil   v  Argentina

Germany at 1.5 v Holland   1.8 Argentina and Brazil the same ?
Report iprefertolay July 7, 2014 12:08 AM BST
now that is complex
Report PhGuy July 7, 2014 9:54 PM BST
The following are odds to win the cup, for each of the four possible final pairs:

Germany  v  Holland      Germany 1.79 favourite
Germany  v  Argentina    Germany 1.98 favourite
Brazil   v  Holland      Brazil 1.80 favourite
Brazil   v  Argentina    Evens
Report iprefertolay July 8, 2014 12:27 AM BST
those odds look right
Report Knight Rider July 8, 2014 2:51 PM BST
The strange thing is though, Brazil are longer than Germany in the outrights but favourites to win tonight.  Can anyone explain that?
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