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Anyone has outright odds as they were when the group stage was over?

PhGuy

06 Jul 14 17:42

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Date Joined: 07 Apr 06

| Topic/replies: 120 | Blogger: PhGuy's blog

Anyone has outright odds as they were when the group stage was over? That is, just before the round of 16 kicked off. I would appreciate any help.

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Replies: 9

By:

Makfi When: 06 Jul 14 21:34

Bookies Betfair (-5%)

Brazil 16/5 3
Germany 4 21/5
Argentina 4 4
Netherlands 8 39/5
France 9 17/2
Colombia 20 18
Belgium 20 22
Mexico 33 33
Chile 33 35
Uruguay 40 51
Costa Rica 50 56
USA 80 89
Greece 125 123
Switzerland 125 142
Nigeria 250 256
Algeria 225 389

By:

PhGuy When: 06 Jul 14 22:05

Thanks a lot for the reply. I have written a program that works "backwards" from the outright odds to give a "rating" to each team. Here are the results if anyone is interested:

BRA 1902.822
GER 1851.355
ARG 1831.561
FRA 1800.446
NED 1783.739
COL 1763.163
CHI 1736.203
BEL 1709.290
URU 1700.328
MEX 1689.723
COS 1638.122
USA 1627.500
SUI 1606.537
NIG 1597.891
GRE 1595.072
ALG 1575.903

Also, here are the ratings using the current (semi-finals) odds:

GER 1630.511
ARG 1629.246
BRA 1627.500
NED 1594.521

(Note that only the difference between ratings matters, and not the absolute values).

To find what chance each team has of qualifying against each other simply find the difference in their ratings and use this graph to get the odds of qualification:

http://fooplot.com/#W3sidHlwZSI6MCwiZXEiOiIoMStlXigteC8xNzApKSIsImNvbG9yIjoiIzAwMDAwMCJ9LHsidHlwZSI6MTAwMCwid2luZG93IjpbIjAiLCI4NTAiLCIxIiwiMiJdfV0-

By:

PhGuy When: 06 Jul 14 22:14

If anyone has the odds between the quarter finals, that would be great too... I could extract some nice data from there.

By:

Makfi When: 06 Jul 14 22:22

Before QFs ...

Bookies Betfair (-5%)
Brazil 3 14/5
Argentina 4 21/5
Germany 9/2 23/5
Netherlands 5 5
France 8 39/5
Colombia 12 64/5
Belgium 14 64/5
Costa Rica 66 80

By:

wallis When: 06 Jul 14 23:17

So what would be the odds on the final if

Germany v Holland
Germany v Argentina
Brazil v Holland
Brazil v Argentina

Germany at 1.5 v Holland 1.8 Argentina and Brazil the same ?

By:

iprefertolay When: 07 Jul 14 00:08

now that is complex

By:

PhGuy When: 07 Jul 14 21:54

The following are odds to win the cup, for each of the four possible final pairs:

Germany v Holland Germany 1.79 favourite
Germany v Argentina Germany 1.98 favourite
Brazil v Holland Brazil 1.80 favourite
Brazil v Argentina Evens

By:

iprefertolay When: 08 Jul 14 00:27

those odds look right

By:

Knight Rider When: 08 Jul 14 14:51

The strange thing is though, Brazil are longer than Germany in the outrights but favourites to win tonight. Can anyone explain that?