World Cup 2014
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21 May 14
00:59
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16 Mar 11
Any idiot can back the winner, let's start at the other end. Who's gonna be the worst team? Hard to measure accurately I'd say, given the differing standards of the groups, but we can at least bet on the team that concedes the most goals. So I thought I'd have a little look at it and see if there was any value to be found. And you know what, I think there may be.
Perhaps the unluckiest draw ever gives Australia a big shout in this market, and judging by the one or two books who have gone up and the market on here, they will share favouritism with Iran. The first point to make here is that this is not the last stand of Hiddink's Class of 2006 - this is almost a new squad, with a new Australian manager and a defence which will most likely consist of A-League performers. The Aussies will host the Asia Cup shortly, and this squad has been chosen very much with that tournament and beyond in mind. That's all very noble, but any one of their Group opponents is capable of scoring plenty against a decent defence - it could only take one whipping and a couple of routine 2-0s for this bet to cop. For a start, the Asian qualifying section is indisputably the worst - Australia in particular had a ridiculously easy path, coasting to second in the final round group, with Jordan a place behind. The Iranians, under Carlos Queiroz, have proved durable defensively, with six clean sheets in qualifying and a double over South Korea indicating that they do have some kind of plan other than the annihilation of the Western World. Australia could get smashed up more than once in my opinion, and 9/2 or thereabouts looks a very good bet to get us started.
One shouldn't put all one's eggs in one's basket though, and looking further down the list, there's a reasonable case for backing the overfaced Americans, whose itinerary is not the kindest, at 20/1, but sometimes one has to have a punt on one's gut, and I make Greece big runners at 40/1. Personally I think they are in a group with two hugely underestimated teams - Colombia and Japan - and they will also play Ivory Coast in conditions more akin to Abidjan than Wood Green. Delving into their qualification - impressive enough on paper, particularly defensively - I get the idea that this tournament could really find them out. They had the easiest group in European qualifying, for sure, and I haven't seen the away game in Bosnia, but by all accounts they were hugely flattered by the 3-1. Despite an injection of some new blood, this Greek team relies heavily on its elder statesmen, and chasing the patient Colombians around in the first game will not be ideal with two games in horribly adverse conditions to come.
Bit early to be getting involved, but this is my preliminary thinking on this one. Anyone else got any views?
Anyone else got any views on any markets?
Perhaps the unluckiest draw ever gives Australia a big shout in this market, and judging by the one or two books who have gone up and the market on here, they will share favouritism with Iran. The first point to make here is that this is not the last stand of Hiddink's Class of 2006 - this is almost a new squad, with a new Australian manager and a defence which will most likely consist of A-League performers. The Aussies will host the Asia Cup shortly, and this squad has been chosen very much with that tournament and beyond in mind. That's all very noble, but any one of their Group opponents is capable of scoring plenty against a decent defence - it could only take one whipping and a couple of routine 2-0s for this bet to cop. For a start, the Asian qualifying section is indisputably the worst - Australia in particular had a ridiculously easy path, coasting to second in the final round group, with Jordan a place behind. The Iranians, under Carlos Queiroz, have proved durable defensively, with six clean sheets in qualifying and a double over South Korea indicating that they do have some kind of plan other than the annihilation of the Western World. Australia could get smashed up more than once in my opinion, and 9/2 or thereabouts looks a very good bet to get us started.
One shouldn't put all one's eggs in one's basket though, and looking further down the list, there's a reasonable case for backing the overfaced Americans, whose itinerary is not the kindest, at 20/1, but sometimes one has to have a punt on one's gut, and I make Greece big runners at 40/1. Personally I think they are in a group with two hugely underestimated teams - Colombia and Japan - and they will also play Ivory Coast in conditions more akin to Abidjan than Wood Green. Delving into their qualification - impressive enough on paper, particularly defensively - I get the idea that this tournament could really find them out. They had the easiest group in European qualifying, for sure, and I haven't seen the away game in Bosnia, but by all accounts they were hugely flattered by the 3-1. Despite an injection of some new blood, this Greek team relies heavily on its elder statesmen, and chasing the patient Colombians around in the first game will not be ideal with two games in horribly adverse conditions to come.
Bit early to be getting involved, but this is my preliminary thinking on this one. Anyone else got any views?
Anyone else got any views on any markets?
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Replies: 24
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Good post. Haven't thought about this market but I'm quite tempted to join you on those selections.
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By all accounts Australia are a very poor side.
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Having said that Iran should get hammered by Argentina and ship a few v Nigeria.
Back either Australia or Iran in my view. |
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Australia for me.
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Queiroz is a good bus parker . Fergie admits in his book that Carlos was 100% responsible for the tactics v Barca in the 2008 CL Semi
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OK, on a related note, I've been having a look at the market for highest-scoring Group match. Again, because I've already taken the view about Iran, I'm gonna rule out any of their games, which takes out a decent chunk of the percentages.
In this market, we're probably looking at a one-sided game being our main chance of copping, so Australia have to be uppermost in our thoughts. Of their three opponents, I particularly like the chances of Holland smashing a few past them - it's not unheard of for them to demolish weak teams mercilessly. There's a bit of 16/1 available about this fixture, and again that looks too big. As I said above, I'm keen to oppose America, and to my mind they could get done a big score by either Germany or Portugal. Given CR7's history of destroying weak sides all by himself, I would favour the Portuguese to outscore the Germans, but I would also want to be having a small interest on the cohesive German unit to back that up. There is always the chance that this market could be won by a high-scoring ding-donger, although such games happen ever more rarely these days due to the better organised defences that prevail even among the weaker nations. One team happy to go toe-to-toe though, is Japan, and I'd want to be looking at them to complete my selections in this market. Make no mistake, there will be few teams at this tournament who look better and more penetrative with the ball than the Japanese, and unlike most teams they are quite happy to concede a few to score a few. I think their first match, against Ivory Coast, fits the bill for the last bet. Like Japan, Ivory Coast's strength lies in their attack, and despite the caveat that this is both side's first match of the tournament, I can see this being an open and entertaining match. Selections: Holland v Australia 16/1 Portugal v USA 33/1 Germany v USA 16/1 Ivory Coast v Japan 50/1 All prices Paddy Power. Small bets on each, weighted towards Holland v Australia. |
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I've just lumped on Australia to finish bottom of group B at a masssssssseve 1/3.
By god there's a 1/10 shot if ever I saw it.  Most books go a lot shorter (except for Bvic who also quote 1/3 but you'll be lucky to get more than a tenner on). This will pay for all my other bets. |
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One games which is surely a massive back in the unders market is, Italy v Uruguay.
Both teams may be a happy with a draw and the match will be played in very hot and humid conditions. Both sides are defensively minded and are closely matched. I predict 0-0 or 1-0 either way. |
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A minute ago I asked to add a choice to the "Nominate Finalists" market.
"Any other finalist combination not listed" Betfair list 62 possible finalist combos. My calculation is there are 32 X 32 / 2 = 512 possible finalist combos (many extremely unlikely). If an outsider got into the final against Brazil, say Brazil/Russia, then there is no winner in that market, as that combo is not listed. |
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I watched every Greece qualifier
They are much worse than a few years ago, they are extremely slow and suspect defensively. Bosnia trashed them 3-1, it could have been 6 or 7. I like Cameroon and Ghana here |
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Ivory Coast stage of elimination quarter final 8/1 and semi final 66/1 both with vcbet.
They are in an easy enough group and then play someone from englands group in the second round. Also vcbet have somehow pushed out negredo to 10/1 today to be spains top scorer,unless they know something ? with diego costa looking very dodgy to be fit now vcbet are double the odds of everyone else. skybet have england 50/1 to score no goals there is worse 50/1 shots out there. |
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are you getting those odds from Oddschecker or such? Because Victor's prices are always inflated on there. Plus anyone that isn't a total mug can't have an account with them. 50/1 is a joke for England, I'd expect them to score in every match.
Paddy has a good market, ''Belgium to be refered to as a dark horse by any pundit'' @ 2.25  be a pain keeping track of that one though. |
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2.25 is free money, be suprirsed if you can get more than £10 on though
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Will be settled within half an hour of the first broadcast JC. Especially if it's on the BBC. We had a little joke about how long it would take them to make the first "Let me entertain you" reference about Robbie Williams during the World Snooker Championship. Waited all of four minutes of the first morning to cop.
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PP had a similar bet in 2010 with the commentators to say "As it stands" a certain number of times. Won easy
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love it. my favourite was Roy Hodgson to sing the national anthem in his first Euro finals match, even though he'd already done it in the first friendly. |
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The Belgium "Dark Horses" bet has to be in the build up to the first match
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I too saw the dark horses one and thought sureeelllyyy
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ivory coast to win group c
argentina to be shown most cards |
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Not much value in the "team to concede most goals" market IMO.
Your selections are a good shout, with good reasoning, got to remember but that these teams will definitely be eliminated in the group stages. A team could get to the final, conceding a goal in every game, and end up winning the bet. If it most only restricted to group games it would be a different matter... |
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I did consider the possibility of a team advancing and conceding a few, fair point.
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there's some decent ''free money'' stuff if you're willing to take 1.03's and the like. you can back people like Rooney to start a game the next day, so bar him dropping a jar of salad cream on his foot during the night, it's free cash
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kincsem Betfair will add further runners if need be at a later stage.
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It's speculative & only worth a small investment but I think Mexico 7-1 to be awarded 1st pen of tourno is fair value. I'd expect Croatia to defend sensibly vs Brazil & not concede a pen in 1st game of tourno. Mexico have some very tricky forwards & I think it's more likely a Cameroon defender will foul a Mexican forward in the box, in what will be the 2nd game of the tourno.
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