World Cup Preview

Group G


Germany: Santa Cruz Cabralia


Best price = 6/1

FIFA's key players
Keeper Manuel Neuer is the undisputed No1, while many experts believe he is the real deal, equipped not only to follow in the footsteps of Oliver Kahn and Jens Lehmann, but also to develop into one of the best in the world. Full-back Philipp Lahm and schemer Bastian Schweinsteiger earned their international spurs long ago: each has reached 100 caps but is still at their peak.
The next generation appears immensely promising too. Former Real Madrid starlet Mesut Ozil, who now laces his boots at Arsenal was just 21 when he thrilled the crowds at the 2010 FIFA World Cup and is a gifted creative player with passing ability to match the best in the world. Up front, Thomas Muller won the adidas Golden Boot and was named Best Young Player at the 2010 finals, while youngsters Marco Reus, Andre Schurrle, Toni Kroos and Mario Gotze keep getting better and better.

My key player: Philip Lahm


Coach: Joachim Low
Best performances in a FIFA competition: FIFA World Cup Switzerland 1954, Germany 1974, Italy 1990 (Winners), FIFA U-20 World Cup Australia 1981 (Winners)

Portugal: Campinas


Best price = 33/1

FIFA's key players
As he showed in the play-off against Sweden, Cristiano Ronaldo is still very much Portugal’s go-to man, though the peerless Real Madrid star is supported is by a very able cast. The central-defensive pairing of Pepe and Bruno Alves is the cornerstone of a very solid rearguard that also features flying full-backs Joao Pereira and Fabio Coentrao. Joao Moutinho is the heartbeat of a creative midfield unit, while Nani can also be relied upon to shine alongside Ronaldo.

My key player: Cristiano Ronaldo


Current coach: Paulo Bento
Best performances in a FIFA competition: 1966 FIFA World Cup England (third place), FIFA U-20 World Cup Saudi Arabia 1989 and Portugal 1991 (winners), FIFA U-20 World Cup Colombia 2011 (runners-up), FIFA U-17 World Cup Scotland 1989 (third place).

Ghana: Maceio


Best price = 250/1

FIFA's key players
There are few better midfields in the world than Ghana's as the Black Stars can call on veterans Michael Essien and Sulley Muntari as well as players hitting their prime like Andre Ayew, Kwadwo Asamoah and Kevin-Prince Boateng. Up front, the athletic Asamoah Gyan will be a vital focal point and no doubt anxious to prove that Ghana can be the undisputed class of Africa.

My key player: Kevin-Prince Boateng


Coach: Kwesi Appiah
Best performances in a FIFA competition: FIFA World Cup South Africa 2010 (Quarter-finals), FIFA U-17 World Cup Italy 1991, Ecuador 1995 (Winners), FIFA U-20 World Cup Egypt 2009 (Winners)

USA: Sao Paulo


Best price = 250/1

FIFA's Key players
Jozy Altidore, of English Premier League outfit Sunderland, emerged as the complete package during the final qualifying competition. Left out of the team due to poor form and attitude in the semi-final round,  Klinsmann reconsidered and wasn’t let down by his burly striker, who scored goals for fun and was the perfect partner for Clint Dempsey in attack. Landon Donovan, long-time creative icon of the US national, made a return to football after a self-imposed months-long ‘sabbatical’ and linked up beautifully with the sturdy central midfield presence of Roma’s Michael Bradley. With Tim Howard still a dominant presence between the sticks, the Americans are loaded with ability wherever you look.

My key player: Geoff Cameron


Coach: Jurgen Klinsmann
Best performances in a FIFA Competition: FIFA World Cup Uruguay 1930 (Third place), FIFA Confederations Cup Saudi Arabia 1992, Mexico 1999 (Third place), FIFA U-20 World Cup Saudi Arabia 1989 (Fourth place), FIFA U-17 World Cup New Zealand 1999 (Fourth place), FIFA Confederations Cup South Africa 2009 (Second place)

Group G Summary
Germany have a team absolutely full of stars. Neuer, Lahm, Hummels, Boateng, Khedira, Kroos, Gotze, Schweinsteiger, Ozil, Muller etc. They have amazing World Cup pedigree, and all their players play at top teams. They are a side that everyone will be afraid of and they are rightly in the top 3 in the outright market. But they have about the worst draw of the whole tournament in terms of European sides playing in difficult conditions. They play Portugal in Salvador then Ghana in Fortaleza and finally USA in Recife. I suspect that the conditions will favour all three of their opponents more than them. They also have a fair amount of travelling to do, with 700m, 2000m and 1700m round trips from their base in Santa Cruz Cabralia. Lastly, whilst their defence and midfield is full of starsthey seem to lack quality in the forward department, with only Klose and Hofland as out-and-out strikers. For these reason, and more importantly the price, I am going to take Germany on. Portugal are my idea of group winners. In terms of conditions they have landed on their feet. They play Germany in conditions the Southern Europeans might cope better with, and then when they play Ghana, unlike Germany, it will be in cooler Cuiaba. I worry about the amount of travelling the Portugese have to do, but speaking the language might be a big advantage for the Portugese, and they may get some support from their Brazilian "brothers" as Ronaldo has requested. But even on their own terms, Portugal are an excellent team packed with talent and with Ronaldo in the side anything is possible. Ghana are the other reason I am opposing Germany. They are nobody's mugs, and taking on Germany in Fortaleza gives them a chance of an upset. They are very well organised, physical and full of technical ability. If anything I always think Ghana would benefit from being a bit more flexible and attacking, but they have threatened to go a long way despite some shocking draws in previous tournaments and this one could be the one where they do. USA are the weakest team in the group in my eyes, have three games in hot & humid conditions and have a stupid amount of travelling to do. I don't see them qualifying, but they have excellent spirit and they are capable of throwing a spanner in the works of any of these three teams, which is another reason why I don't mind opposing the short-priced Germans in this group.

Suggested Bets
Lay Germany as group winners at 1.65 or less
Lay Germany to qualify at 1.18
Ghana to qualify at 3/1

To be fair to Iran they did top the group and beat South Korea home and away in qualifying plus they are also the WR number one nation by FIFA in Asia.  Another bit of trivia for you.  They received the five biggest attendances of any nation in World Cup qualifying.  So I would say from both perspectives they definitely deserve to be there.   

Of every nation at the WC they look to have the weakest squad on paper, but results and rankings say otherwise, plus they have an excellent manager.  They conceded just 2 goals in their final qualifying group, plus Carlos Queiros's Portugal conceded fewest goals in South Africa four years ago.  I'd say they will park the bus well.  So whereas you've got probably the two most attacking teams in the tournament you might well have the most negative up against them.  Iran v Nigeria won't be pretty and if they are good enough I think there is every chance Iran can frustrate Nigeria in their opener and nick a win Mourinho Style.  The Arg/BH/Iran 1-2-3 looks a decent price at 9/1 to me.  If they get a draw with Nigeria and it comes down to gd with them at the bottom their more cautious approach might see them prevail. I'm also on the 7/1 most goals, despite Iran being so defensive, as it's too big a price with the two most attack minded teams in the group.

Group H

Belgium: Mogi das Cruzes


Best price = 20/1

FIFA's key players
On paper, Belgium can call upon an armada of stars, all plying their trade in Europe’s most prestigious championships. The depth of their talent pool is striking, with Nacer Chadli threatening to eclipse crowd favourite Eden Hazard before the latter has approached anything near his peak. Romelu Lukaku, Kevin de Bruyne, Thibaut Courtois and Toby Alderweireld are the latest stars to emerge, while the likes of Vincent Kompany, Thomas Vermaelen, Axel Witsel, Marouane Fellaini and Steven Defour have already established themselves as senior figures.

My key player: Vincent Kompany


Coach: Marc Wilmots
Best performances in a FIFA competition: FIFA World Cup Mexico 1986 (Fourth place), Men’s Olympic Football Tournament Antwerp 1920 (Winners)

Algeria: Sorocaba


Best price = 2,500/1

FIFA's key players
Madjid Bougherra is a key figure at the back, and he scored the all-important winner in the second leg against Burkina Faso. Sofiane Feghouli is an exciting attacking midfielder, while Medhi Lacen holds things down in front of the defence. Islam Slimani emerged as the most prolific option in attack during qualifying.

My key player: Sofiane Feghouli


Coach: Vahid Halilhodzic
Best performances in a FIFA competition: FIFA World Cup Spain 1982, Mexico 1986, South Africa 2010 (Group stages)

Russia: Itu


Best price = 100/1

FIFA's key players
This latest Russian side is built on solid defensive foundations. Goalkeeper Igor Akinfeev did not miss a single minute of the qualifying competition and conceded just five goals during the course of it, while Sergey Ignashevich marshalled the defence with aplomb. Yet Fabio Capello’s most prized assets can be found in what is a technically gifted and astute midfield unit, where Roman Shirokov and Victor Fayzulin have continued to hone the partnership they have forged at Zenit St Petersburg, scoring six goals between them in the qualifiers.
Perhaps not surprisingly, the team’s top scorer was Kerzhakov. Though not always a starter, the Zenit striker helped himself to five goals during the campaign, the most important of them being that winner against the Portuguese. A lethal finisher, the former Sevilla man could wreak havoc in Brazil.

My key player: Igor Akinfeev


Current coach: Fabio Capello
Best performance in a FIFA competition: FIFA World Cup England 1966 (Fourth place)

Korea Republic: Foz do Iguacu


Best price: 500/1

FIFA's key players
The squad's make-up kept changing during the qualifying and under new coach Hong Myungbo, a new-look team has taken shape. A series of emerging stars, notably German-based Son Heungmin and Koo Jacheol, have graduated into the team's backbone force. Bolton Wanderers' Lee Chungyong is the new man wearing the captain's armband and home-based Kim Shinwook and Lee Keunho are proven goal-scorers.

My key player: Young-Gwon Kim


Current coach: Hong Myungbo
Best performance in a FIFA competition: FIFA World Cup Korea/Japan 2002 (Fourth place)

Group H Summary
Belgium have a staggering amount of quality throughout their team. When you look at names like Courtois, Kompany, Alderweired, Hazard, Fellaini, Witsel and Lukaku it's easy to see why they are favourites for Group H and 5th favourites overall. They are plenty short enough now at 20/1, but they are my ideas of Group winners here. The draw has been fairly kind to them, and they will play at three favourable locations. Their base of Mogi des Cruzes is perfect for their three group games and they won't experience Brazil's hot and humid parts in this group. Algeria have plenty of players in European leagues, and whilst they will probably think this group represents a decent opportunity to go through, I think it is a tough group and can see Algeria finishing bottom. Russialook a different proposition to previous years under Capello. Gone are the days when they had a squad full of players from Western Europe. This group almost all play in the strong Russian league, and that might be a good thing as Russia have seriously underperformed in recent World Cups. But it means Russia are tough side to figure out. This group could work out as a two horse race between the Russians and Koreans to qualify with Belgium. I'm surprised the bookies  favour the Russians so strongly (1/2) and I think Korea may represent a little value to qualify at 15/8. Korea don't have the star names of Japan, or even previous Korea sides, but they have enough quality to be taken seriously by everyone in this group, they've experience of South and Central America and I think they could cause a small shock by getting through to the knockout.

Suggested Bets
Korea to qualify 15/8

My bets on the group stages

Cameroon to qualify from Group A 5/1
Croatia to finish bottom of Group A 4/1
Spain/Chile dual forecast in Group B 21/10
Japan to qualify from Group C 5/4
Uruguay to win group D 15/8
Italy to finish bottom of Group D 16/1
No bet from Group E
Group F to be the highest scoring 7/1
Lay Germany as group G winners at 1.65 or less
Lay Germany to qualify from Group G at 1.18
Ghana to qualify from Group G 3/1
Korea to qualify from Group H 15/8

mary.any1-any idea on the ball being used,was it the last wc-used a flyer and all the opening games v lowscoring

great write up even if i dont agree with it all!

thanks

don't know about the ball rommel, sorry

thanks for that  MC1 - i take from this the factual info , very nice of you

most of your bets are ok -chile not sure without key player..no chance here..korea...if you watched them over last 2 yrs they've been diabolical...

like to keep debate going here - will put up soem bets ive made after ive got them all in which will be in next day or so...

Nice on KG. Going to put my outrights up shortly along with a few other bets, but just finalising them.

marychain, you make some interesting points in your assessments but I have to disagree with you about Spain. It seems you have written off their chances because Barcelona had a bad season. I think it's very naive to believe that Iniesta and Xavi are past it. I am sure they will prove you wrong.

Spain's style of football will help them enormously in these conditions, they are all about possession football and keeping their shape, an incredibly difficult team to play against. Opponents just cant get the ball or keep the ball. Even Holland became so frustrated they resorted to kicking in the last WC final. The way Spain keep the ball and let the ball do all the work means they will conserve lots of energy while their opponents run around like headless chickens, exhausting themselves in the process. It's like playing against a brick wall.

I just cant see any team beating Spain in a competitive match. They destroyed Italy in the Euro's Final. They beat Holland 1-0 in the last WC final but they were so superior it might as well have been 5-0. They have no equal in world football.

I think France will be the biggest flops in this WC. In my experience the world tends to punish stupidity and any manager who refuses to play their best players definitely qualifies as stupid. I predict an embarrassing early exit for France. When you play the best you need your best players. Deschamp and France are about to be taught that painful lesson. You just cant get away with that kind of stupidity at this level.

If we were talking about 2008 Spain or 2010 Spain or maybe even 2012 Spain then fair enough but this team have been on the go a long, long time and time waits for no man. I saw an aging Spain in the Confederations Cup, and you can talk about their keep-ball suiting them in the conditions but if you think back to the Uruguay/Spain Confed Cup game last year in Recife Spain wilted badly towards the end despite having almost all the possession for the first hour and racing into a 2-goal lead. Since then Spain have aged and Uruguay's players have come to their peak. This is all in my opinion.

There's a good chance those two sides play each other in Salvador in the Quarter-Final. Spain will be massive favourites but Uruguay will know that if they can keep it close for the first hour they can beat Spain in the last half hour or extra time.

Yes the players are getting older but I have yet to see any evidence that Spain are on the decline. Their style of play suits the conditions. The hotter and more humid it is, the more extreme it is, the better for Spain. The Confederations Cup doesn't mean much imo.

My point was that possession style of play or not Spain wilted against Uruguay. The other thing that counts against them is that the flip side of their possession game was always their astonishing workrate and their ability to close down and harry the opposition in numbers and win the ball back quickly. Xavi and Iniesta are not able to do that anymore, as Barcelona have shown this season.

There are several competitions within each World Cup, and this one is no different.  Group winners. qualifiers, etc; etc;
In the conditions - which we can only guess at whatever info. we have gleaned - there are possibilities of at least one non-pedigree side progressing, notably Ghana, and maybe Uruguay continuing their World Cup renaissance.  I expect some immensely tedious and boring matches as coaches more and more play so as not to get beat and not to induce unwanted pressure in the first two games.  If any European sides are to impress then only the very best have a chance, which means Spain, Germany and Holland - the others have absolutely no chance.
Ghana and Uruguay are my two to do well and are very good bets to qualify.  Thereafter the draw will determine their future prospects.
Great presentation marychain1 - many thanks.

marychain you're reading far too much into an unimportant friendly tournament - the world cup will be very different

spai

spain don't care much about friendlies. everyone beats spain in friendlies...

fair enough, you are entitled to your opinion but they don't interest me.

Anyone else agree that the Dutch squad looks the worst in living memory.

Strootman is a massive loss.  Given the way Greece rolled over Romania in their play off match, their impressive qualifying form doesn't look quite so impressive.  RVP Sneijder De Jong and VDV all look on the slide.  Strootman was their one star player who looked on the up.

I do agree though.  The assumption (I think) is that the Dutch have a wealth of talented players.  Then you look at their squad and realise that actually, this year, they don't.

Absolutley superb MC congrats

metaphor  -the confed cup is always something that you should take into consideration..certain teams really struggled with the conditions

this is massive to me....

World Cup Outright Bets

Those who have read my group analyses may already have an idea on who I see as likely winners, but here’s my look at the favourites.

I can see why some people don’t rate Brazil - they don’t seem to have the stars of recent years, and some of their key players haven’t had the best of seasons. There have also been loads of rumours of the lack of support for this tournament, and bad organisation. I’ve heard talk about the pressure of being at home as well. But the way I look at it is this – the Confederations Cup gave us a big clue of how this tournament will go. The Brazil squad with its lack of stars is perfect to get the job done, and in Big Phil Scolari they have the perfect manager. Loads of Brazil’s players leave their club form far behind when they pull on the yellow shirts. I look at Brazil’s team and I like every part of it, where other teams seem to have weakness in some positions. Moreover, like the London Olympics, once this tournament gets going the public will get on board, big time! The atmosphere for the Confederations Cup final against Spain was astonishing, it lifted the Brazil team and they will get that and more match after match in this World Cup. Anyone that beats Brazil will have to do it in Brazil’s back yard, and I don’t know who is capable of that. They have a really friendly group, and if they don’t win it comfortably it will be a big shock. They will probably play Holland or Chile in the second round, which isn’t ideal, but I’d expect them to beat either. A quarter final against the Group C winners (Columbia?) or Group D runners up (Italy? England?) awaits, but that will in the humid conditions of Fortaleza and would be a tough ask for a European side. By the semi-finals they will be on a roll and this tournament will be buidling to a crescendo. Semi-finals and final could be against anyone but it will presumably be the crème-de-la-crème. Home advantage will be a massive factor at this stage and all being well I’d expect to see Brazil a very short price. They are my idea of the winners and will be my main bet.

Argentina have the best player in the world in my eyes in Messi, and have talent all over the pitch. I expect them to score a lot of goals but I think they are vulnerable against the very good sides. I backed them 4 years ago and was ultra-confident after the group stages that they would get the job done but they got turned over by a supremely professional German team and all the talent in the world is nothing if you can’t find a team and formation that suits. The suspicion has to remain that Argentina will not be as secure defensively as other top sides. A Brazil v Argentina final would be an amazing spectacle and while that could happen I think the semis might be where Argentina’s tournament ends.

Germany and Spain probably represent the best European sides on paper. Spain have a fairly tough group featuring Holland and Chile but I would expect them to get through it. This group have been on the go a long time though, and I expect Spain to suffer defeat before the semi finals. Their midfield has been head and shoulders above everyone else in the world for years but Xavi and Iniesta are no spring chickens and possible knockout games in the humid conditions of Fortaleza and Salvador may prove their undoing. Germany are rightly perceived as real challengers, they have a great combination of World Cup pedigree and a top side. They do have a tough group in terms of quality of opposition, the miles they have to travel and the conditions they’ll play in. If they get through the group they’ll be very dangerous but at the price I’m happy to oppose them. I’m not sure that Gomez or Hofland will score them enough goals for them to threaten the best sides in this tournament.

Belgium are next favourites, and when you look at their team and draw they could go a long way. At 20/1 they’re short enough now though, but well done to those who got on at fancy prices. Chile, Colombia and Uruguay will all have their fans due to it being a home continent WC. Chile are without Arturo Vidal though, which tempers my enthusiasm for them. Also, Chile and Colombia do not really get to play European sides in the most hot and humid venues so you wonder how much of an advantage a home continent WC really is. Add in Colombia missing Falcao and I’m not sure they really represent a betting proposition as the big prices have all gone. Uruguay are a different case though in my eyes. They don’t seem to have any major injury concerns, have been there and done that getting to the semi-finals last time. They have genuine class in Suarez and Cavani and face Italy in Natal which could be to their advantage. Spain in the quarter finals would be the biggest potential blot on the landscape but they represent a big danger to all.

The other sides I am interested in backing are France and Portugal. I think both these teams have the potential to go a long way in this tournament. France have strength throughout the team, a decent-looking group and have no issues with playing in difficult conditions. Portugal have a cracking looking side, and if Ronaldo fires can go a long way. They have a tough group but I think they can win it and have a very successful tournament. They may have an advantage over other sides from being in a Portugese-speaking country, and I want them on board. The issue for me with these two sides is that if they both win (or come second in) their groups they are scheduled to meet in the quarter finals. Because of this I have decided to just go with Portugal and leave France (reluctantly) unbacked.

Bets

To win 2014 World Cup
Brazil 3/1 General Those who know me will know I rarely back favourites for anything, preferring to look for something at a bigger price. But I am convinced that Brazil have the strongest all round team, even though they don’t necessarily have the best players in each position. I have had my biggest bet on Brazil at 3/1, although I have held some back as I do anticipate offers once the season ends. I will be hoping that some firms go 4/1 or bigger and I will be looking to take advantage of this.
Uruguay 28/1 Coral Of all the bigger priced South American sides Uruguay are the ones who have fewest questions to answer. The have unquestionable ability, track record, winning mentality and if they get through the group, which I think they will, they will be a tough ask for anyone. Spain in the quarters is a potential blot on the landscape, but I think they can overcome that hurdle and go a long way.
Portugal 33/1 General  Not a one-man team by any means but Portugal have Ronaldo and he is capable of beating any opposition  by himself. That shouldn’t be necessary, as Portugal have an excellent side and playing this tournament in a Portugese speaking country may make this feel a bit like a home world cup for them.

To make the quarter finals
Japan 6/1 General
Ghana 10/1 Betfair Sportsbook
With a (1,2 ¼) book in a 32 team tournament there is little point in backing outsiders each way. If you do fancy a couple of long shots to progress further than  their odds would suggest, most books are pricing up the “to make the quarters” markets. The two I am going to back in this are Japan and Ghana. They are priced up at 6/1 and 10/1 respectively. Japan have the easier group on paper, and if everything goes to form they would likely be underdogs in their second round games but they only need to win one knockout match for these bets to land.

Top Goalscorer and Player of the Tournament
David Luiz 66/1 POT
Keisuke Honda 250/1 Top Goalscorer

I’m not a big one for this sort of bets. I’ll never forget having an each way double on Baros 50/1 and the Czech Republic 18/1 as top scorer/winners in Euro 2000 and being sicker than the Czechs when Greece scored with the last kick of the game in the semi-final. It’s just a small each way bet on the top goalscorer market for me. Honda will play and take free kicks. He has a decent record for Japan and is a very nice price. In the POT market I’ve gone for a defender. Not normally a good idea and Luiz’s reputation isn’t great in Britain but the Portugese, Brazilians and Spanish love him. He’s going to be a starter for the home side and favourites and he’s extremely noticeable. I can’t get the image of Luiz lifting the trophy out of my head and I had to back him at the price.

Total list of my bets

Brazil to win World Cup 3/1 General (keeping an eye for offers in run-up)
Uruguay to win World Cup 28/1 Coral (Refund as free bet if Brazil/Argentina win WC)
Portugal to win World Cup 33/1 General
Japan to make QF 6/1 General
Ghana to make QF 10/1 Betfair Sportsbook
David Luiz 66/1 POT Betfair Sportsbook
Keisuke Honda 250/1 Top Goalscorer Paddy Power
--------------------
Cameroon to qualify from Group A 5/1
Croatia to finish bottom of Group A 4/1
Spain/Chile dual forecast in Group B 21/10
Japan to qualify from Group C 5/4
Uruguay to win group D 15/8
Italy to finish bottom of Group D 16/1
No bet from Group E
Group F to be the highest scoring 7/1
Lay Germany as group G winners at 1.65 or less
Lay Germany to qualify from Group G at 1.18
Ghana to qualify from Group G 3/1
Korea to qualify from Group H 15/8

Great write up mary.

One extra dimension I think you may have over-looked from a conditions PoV is the kick off times; 13:00 (local) kick off times will be very hot, and these will again not be favoured by the Europeans imo.

There are 6 games in the group stages which combine both the difficult humidity AND the early kick off times. These may be of interest for an anti-European play and/or Under backers:

Mexico    v Cameroon
Germany    v Portugal
Italy    v Costa Rica
Italy    v Uruguay
Bosnia    v Iran
USA    v Germany

There are a further 7 which have an early kick off time but at a venue considered 'Normal' for European teams:

Colombia    v Greece
Belgium            v Algeria
Argentina    v Iran
South Korea    v Algeria
Australia    v Spain
Holland            v Chile
Costa Rica    v England

Thanks Ted, on that basis Italy look a good lay v Uruguay.
Also a definate unders back.

Absolutely cracking point that Ted, and you're right, it's something I hadn't considered at all

Luiz is 100/1 for "Golden Ball" with skybet. Its the same thing is it not?

1) Player of the tournament is a FIFA award for the tournament's best player
2) Golden Ball is the official Golden Ball competition which is scored goals, then I think assists as a tiebreak and then even more complicated rules to separate further.
3) Top goalscorer is generally just goals but dead heat for a draw.

Make sure you know which one you're betting on. It's unlikely David Luiz will score more than a couple so I wouldn't back him in 2) or 3)

Hang on, misread that. Golden Ball....

Golden Ball and Player of the Tournament are synonymous.

Sorry thought you put Golden Boot. This is getting confusing.

It is quite late so i'll let you off

The top goalscorer and Golden boot winner are slightly different.
Top scorer market dead heat rules apply.
Golden boot award, first who scored most goals, if dead heat,finalised by most assists.
Hope this clears the water.

Fantastic write up mary. Always enjoy reading your posts and am happy to read you are on board with a few of my selections. My bets so far:

Brazil to win
Neymar Golden Boot
Uruguay to win
Portugal to win Group G
Suarez Golden Boot

dont waste your time on suarez - everything is known about him , at international level now he will be marked way tighter than ever before...no chance here zero chance....

all these bets i got through an indy - i  give him big volumeand he gives me soccer  oddschecker numbers...if i put em in they would be gone on bookmakers sites..no kidding here.

so pay attention to this stuff and bet it , i dont give this stuff out too often ....

all bets are found under team specials on oddschecker...these are sort of stuff where you can hurt the books ..great value here

1. austraila under group points 1.5  1/2
2. england   over group points  4.5  9/10
3. algeria    over group points 1.5 8/11
4. algeria   over group goals  1.5 8/15
5. costa rica over group points 0.5 8/11
6 .  costa rica over goals  1.5 17/20
7. italy under group points 5.5 21/20
8 .italy under group goals  5.5 5/6

i made italy and algeria bets stronger than rest.


i also bet at huge numbers bosnia and the swiss each way like 8 months ago , these numbers have come well in now

if you want to bet on the exchange on the outright -  i will advise to wait as closer to the event the big boys will come out to play and plenty of teams will be pushed out to something then...at moment no value really outrights - so wait..also tradtional bookmakers will have all sorts of specials also

May 18, 2014 -- 4:50AM, Kerrygold wrote:

dont waste your time on suarez - everything is known about him , at international level now he will be marked way tighter than ever before...no chance here zero chance....

Rubbish. Knowing it is one thing, stopping it is another. Everyone knew about Kareem Abdul-Jabbar's skyhook, he still scored 15 odd thousand points with it. Everyone knew about Mike Tyson's punching power, he still knocked everyone out with it. Everyone knew about the Del Piero zone, he still scored again and again from it.

Sport does not work in line with your reasoning.

I couldn't agree more. The while Premiership knew about Suarez at the start of the season and it didn't help much did it?

Can't understand the reasoning at all. Great players will always find a way to be effective.

knowing about suarez doesn't mean you can stop suarez

uruguay are an excellent side with many dangerous players - suarez will get many opportunities to score

i'm very impressed with your in depth analysis marychain. i might not always agree with your conclusions but your analysis is always interesting to read.

marychain, i see you referenced argentina's thrashing by germany last wc - i would take that result with a pinch of salt if i were you. i don't know what went wrong in that game but argentina just did not turn up - i remember it well and they struggled to string more than two passes together. the form is very suspect. if i were you i would ignore it.

Kerrygold
dont waste your time on suarez - everything is known about him , at international level now he will be marked way tighter than ever before...no chance here zero chance....

My recommendation for top goalscorer is to make a list of the "unknown" forwards, and wait until a few matches have been played. Some small country player will score a few and all prices will go crazy.
In the last World Cup I was watching Suarez, and when he didn't score in Uruguay's first match he was available at 630s (yes 630, not a typing error).  He scored two in Uruguay's second game, and his price wasn't 630.

I see Italy V Uruguay is listed above as an early kick-off match at a hot and humid venue, with the suggestion that Uruguay would be favoured by the conditions.
Are Uruguay really at an advantage?  It you look at the Uruguay World Cup squad on Wiki you will see that one player plays in Uruguay, 4 in Brazil, 16 play in Europe.
But you might say they are used to the hot conditions in their homeland, Uruguay, and they will carry that ability from their youth to handle hot conditions, even though they don't now play in them.
Is there much difference between the summer temperatures in Uruguay and Italy.  I have checked.  Not much difference.  And do they actually play football during the summer in Uruguay and Italy?

Football is now a big money game, played mostly in Europe.  Almost every squad in the World Cup is composed of European league players.
I first came across this "country" thinking in the 1994 WC when I backed Nigeria at 150/1 and they went well.  21 of their 23 man squad played in Europe (one in Ivory Coast, one in Egypt).

It may be true that the average temperature isn't much different between Italy and Uruguay, but Uruguay seemed to cope pretty easily in the Confed cup where Italy and Spain struggled noticably. Spain wilted after bossing the first hour of their game with Uruguay and similarly Italy in their game against Japan looked out on their feet in the last half an hour.

I think humiditity may be a more important factor than just heat, and the combination of the two will be hardest of all.

Spain v Italy was played in terrible conditions

just read there will be 3minute water breaks during games if temp above 32degrees ffs slow games

Poor Ireland in USA 94.  Think they played three of their four games in the aptly named Citrus Bowl.  Still remember the temperature showing 100 degrees F in one of the games

Funnily enough, although Brazil won, the seven other quarter finalists were all European

you fellas are brain washed watching suarez in the an overated league - will be funny to watch when he fails badly ..cannot wait


anyway fellas dont be bitter , i just put up proper bets here...this is strong ..just bet this stuff at different books and thank me later

IMO people make too much of the conditions . Teams will acclimatise .

I don't recall Spain wilting v Uruguay , coasting more like .

ability matters far more than weather conditions. the team with the best players will almost certainly win.

of course they will, in fact I don't know why they're even bothering playing the games.

it's difficult to see past spain. they've been there and done it all. they're winners. they have proven ability and are under no pressure. lets face it they don't owe anyone anything. no one will dare complain if they fail to win, and looking around there are no outstanding sides. the argies look good on paper but never deliver. brazil are nothing special. who else? germany, holland and italy aren't good enough to beat spain as we have seen. anyone else? i cant think of any... 


so to recap ... a settled team with a proven and settled style of football - lots of ability - under no pressure - proven winners - wont mind the conditions


spain will win the wc

Ive backed Spain £25 and bet refunded if Brazil or Argentina win it, online customers at Coral.
Great offer, check it out.

Well we've taken our positions, and we're entrenched. There's no point going over old ground repeatedly, but I wish to point out for the record my belief that Xavi and Iniesta are past their best, Spain will be found out by a more mobile outfit at some stage and won't win the World Cup.

If they do I'll hold my hands up and say I was wrong. Won't be the first time after all.

recap please mary your outright bet tx

mary reckons brazil to win it.

Portugal very much under the radar , nobody seems to be talking about them.

Ronaldo will take them to the quarter finals and from there who knows.

Portugal will enjoy the support of the locals too.

They took Spain to the wire at the semis of the euros and only went out on penalties.

Portugal could be this years version of Uruguay in 2010

World Cup Outright Bets

Those who have read my group analyses may already have an idea on who I see as likely winners, but here’s my look at the favourites.

I can see why some people don’t rate Brazil - they don’t seem to have the stars of recent years, and some of their key players haven’t had the best of seasons. There have also been loads of rumours of the lack of support for this tournament, and bad organisation. I’ve heard talk about the pressure of being at home as well. But the way I look at it is this – the Confederations Cup gave us a big clue of how this tournament will go. The Brazil squad with its lack of stars is perfect to get the job done, and in Big Phil Scolari they have the perfect manager. Loads of Brazil’s players leave their club form far behind when they pull on the yellow shirts. I look at Brazil’s team and I like every part of it, where other teams seem to have weakness in some positions. Moreover, like the London Olympics, once this tournament gets going the public will get on board, big time! The atmosphere for the Confederations Cup final against Spain was astonishing, it lifted the Brazil team and they will get that and more match after match in this World Cup. Anyone that beats Brazil will have to do it in Brazil’s back yard, and I don’t know who is capable of that. They have a really friendly group, and if they don’t win it comfortably it will be a big shock. They will probably play Holland or Chile in the second round, which isn’t ideal, but I’d expect them to beat either. A quarter final against the Group C winners (Columbia?) or Group D runners up (Italy? England?) awaits, but that will in the humid conditions of Fortaleza and would be a tough ask for a European side. By the semi-finals they will be on a roll and this tournament will be buidling to a crescendo. Semi-finals and final could be against anyone but it will presumably be the crème-de-la-crème. Home advantage will be a massive factor at this stage and all being well I’d expect to see Brazil a very short price. They are my idea of the winners and will be my main bet.

Argentina have the best player in the world in my eyes in Messi, and have talent all over the pitch. I expect them to score a lot of goals but I think they are vulnerable against the very good sides. I backed them 4 years ago and was ultra-confident after the group stages that they would get the job done but they got turned over by a supremely professional German team and all the talent in the world is nothing if you can’t find a team and formation that suits. The suspicion has to remain that Argentina will not be as secure defensively as other top sides. A Brazil v Argentina final would be an amazing spectacle and while that could happen I think the semis might be where Argentina’s tournament ends.

Germany and Spain probably represent the best European sides on paper. Spain have a fairly tough group featuring Holland and Chile but I would expect them to get through it. This group have been on the go a long time though, and I expect Spain to suffer defeat before the semi finals. Their midfield has been head and shoulders above everyone else in the world for years but Xavi and Iniesta are no spring chickens and possible knockout games in the humid conditions of Fortaleza and Salvador may prove their undoing. Germany are rightly perceived as real challengers, they have a great combination of World Cup pedigree and a top side. They do have a tough group in terms of quality of opposition, the miles they have to travel and the conditions they’ll play in. If they get through the group they’ll be very dangerous but at the price I’m happy to oppose them. I’m not sure that Gomez or Hofland will score them enough goals for them to threaten the best sides in this tournament.

Belgium are next favourites, and when you look at their team and draw they could go a long way. At 20/1 they’re short enough now though, but well done to those who got on at fancy prices. Chile, Colombia and Uruguay will all have their fans due to it being a home continent WC. Chile are without Arturo Vidal though, which tempers my enthusiasm for them. Also, Chile and Colombia do not really get to play European sides in the most hot and humid venues so you wonder how much of an advantage a home continent WC really is. Add in Colombia missing Falcao and I’m not sure they really represent a betting proposition as the big prices have all gone. Uruguay are a different case though in my eyes. They don’t seem to have any major injury concerns, have been there and done that getting to the semi-finals last time. They have genuine class in Suarez and Cavani and face Italy in Natal which could be to their advantage. Spain in the quarter finals would be the biggest potential blot on the landscape but they represent a big danger to all.

The other sides I am interested in backing are France and Portugal. I think both these teams have the potential to go a long way in this tournament. France have strength throughout the team, a decent-looking group and have no issues with playing in difficult conditions. Portugal have a cracking looking side, and if Ronaldo fires can go a long way. They have a tough group but I think they can win it and have a very successful tournament. They may have an advantage over other sides from being in a Portugese-speaking country, and I want them on board. The issue for me with these two sides is that if they both win (or come second in) their groups they are scheduled to meet in the quarter finals. Because of this I have decided to just go with Portugal and leave France (reluctantly) unbacked.

Bets

To win 2014 World Cup
Brazil 3/1 General Those who know me will know I rarely back favourites for anything, preferring to look for something at a bigger price. But I am convinced that Brazil have the strongest all round team, even though they don’t necessarily have the best players in each position. I have had my biggest bet on Brazil at 3/1, although I have held some back as I do anticipate offers once the season ends. I will be hoping that some firms go 4/1 or bigger and I will be looking to take advantage of this.

Uruguay 28/1 Coral (with money back if Brazil/Argentina win) Of all the bigger priced South American sides Uruguay are the ones who have fewest questions to answer. The have unquestionable ability, track record, winning mentality and if they get through the group, which I think they will, they will be a tough ask for anyone. Spain in the quarters is a potential blot on the landscape, but I think they can overcome that hurdle and go a long way.

Portugal 33/1 General  Not a one-man team by any means but Portugal have Ronaldo and he is capable of beating any opposition  by himself. That shouldn’t be necessary, as Portugal have an excellent side and playing this tournament in a Portugese speaking country may make this feel a bit like a home world cup for them.

To make the quarter finals
Japan 6/1 General
Ghana 10/1 Betfair Sportsbook
With a (1,2 ¼) book in a 32 team tournament there is little point in backing outsiders each way. If you do fancy a couple of long shots to progress further than  their odds would suggest, most books are pricing up the “to make the quarters” markets. The two I am going to back in this are Japan and Ghana. They are priced up at 6/1 and 10/1 respectively. Japan have the easier group on paper, and if everything goes to form they would likely be underdogs in their second round games but they only need to win one knockout match for these bets to land.

Top Goalscorer and Player of the Tournament
David Luiz 66/1 POT
Keisuke Honda 250/1 Top Goalscorer

I’m not a big one for this sort of bets. I’ll never forget having an each way double on Baros 50/1 and the Czech Republic 18/1 as top scorer/winners in Euro 2000 and being sicker than the Czechs when Greece scored with the last kick of the game in the semi-final. It’s just a small each way bet on the top goalscorer market for me. Honda will play and take free kicks. He has a decent record for Japan and is a very nice price. In the POT market I’ve gone for a defender. Not normally a good idea and Luiz’s reputation isn’t great in Britain but the Portugese, Brazilians and Spanish love him. He’s going to be a starter for the home side and favourites and he’s extremely noticeable. I can’t get the image of Luiz lifting the trophy out of my head and I had to back him at the price.

spain's only serious opponent is the ageing process. although there is no proof of this, it's possible they are past their best. that's the only thing that worries me.

Not sure about Portugal enjoying the support of the locals; colonial resentment and all that.

Spain are surely a good bet with Coral giving you money back if Brazil or Argentina win it.

it's difficult to see past spain. they've been there and done it all. they're winners. they have proven ability and are under no pressure. lets face it they don't owe anyone anything. no one will dare complain if they fail to win, and looking around there are no outstanding sides. the argies look good on paper but never deliver. brazil are nothing special. who else? germany, holland and italy aren't good enough to beat spain as we have seen. anyone else? i cant think of any... 


so to recap ... a settled team with a proven and settled style of football - lots of ability - under no pressure - proven winners - wont mind the conditions


spain will win the wc

A couple of rebuttals to this:

1) France were very much viewed the same heading into WC 2002.  Packed with world class players, had won the last two major tournaments; and they got knocked out of the group stage without scoring a goal.

2) You say Brazil are nothing special, and then list certain teams that have shown themselves incapable of beating Spain.  Do you give Brazil no credit for demolishing Spain last year in the Confed Cup?  That's as close a preview to this year's WC as you're going to get.  Sure you can question teams' motivation for a Confederations Cup versus a World Cup, but the fact is home teams tend to do very well at WCs and it's not normally the world's premier footballing nation hosting...

May 19, 2014 -- 11:28PM, bardo wrote:

Portugal very much under the radar , nobody seems to be talking about them.Ronaldo will take them to the quarter finals and from there who knows.Portugal will enjoy the support of the locals too. They took Spain to the wire at the semis of the euros and only went out on penalties.Portugal could be this years version of Uruguay in 2010

look back to EURO 2004 in portugal.1st game played portugal 1 greece 2 last game played portugal 0 greece 1

ronaldo played. had the support.

Not knocking Portugal but that 2004 side was better than the present one; Figo, Rui Costa, Deco, Carvalho, an emerging R0naldo etc etc etc...and at home.

yeah portugal had betterr players back in the day but a decade on they now have best player in the world , however seen a 10 minute interview with him in spanish yesterday- he was not very bullish on portugals chances -really talked about enjoying the tournament -talked with more vigour when talking about champs lg...

rest of my sides for first pjase of world cup already have listed alot of stuff on page 2 - people should bet that stuff as its got alot of upside to it and these bets wont be here closer to the tournament , for anyone wants to bet teams

asian handicaps have bet cam  v mexico ,             
         eng v italy
waiting on algers, and two others
also i would like to bet croatia in all there games and oppose mexico big however the condtions these matches are played in really scare me...brutal looks like...anyhow i bet cam heavy....would like to be with chile howevr the whole sharp world is on them and thats not good ethier plus looks like their main player is not on the mend as plenty believe he is, chile drifted today against aussie who are actually a terrible side -really bad outfit..  i know a few judge like italy -well i know this team very well and take it from me they will struggle ...lucky to get out of group ..if not they will be knocked out in second rd..i expect enf to go fav in the first game...
algers aint a bad side and korea are horrific , ,russia might now qualify if they are not careful
spain will get through prob an averageholland hav one good game in them might play brazil in 2nd rd - game could go either way , holland always play these brazil team v well....not mad on spain either..they will get found out in the quarts.

my best bet which is price long gone was 8/13 brazil to beat mexico -this was the openr at hills - had 1100 on it , if i could would had my 5g normal for this sort of rick but they got scared and after 2 minutes suspended fter i went through net and phones

japan i bet them in first game against the african side - might get off this as too  many people like them - not a good sign be it square people or sharps...i will prob get off them however have a reaonsble bet on them to top rest of world prop against 3 other teams

remember stay away from matches and go bet the props way better stuff , good luck

Knight Rider, the problem with your theory is the Confederations Cup is nothing more than a friendly tournament that no one really takes seriously, except maybe for the host nation because it's in their own back-yard. Spain are notoriously poor in friendlies, everyone can beat them when the fixture means nothing. However, in competitive games it is very different. No one can beat them. If Brazil defeat Spain in the WC then fair enough but I just don't think they're good enough.

I remember France in the 2002 WC and they were actually very unlucky. They outplayed the opposition but couldn't get the ball in the net. Hitting the woodwork several times. It was one of those where had they scored one they would have scored 3 or 4. Zidane was injured, missed the first 2 games and was rushed back for the 3rd game when he wasn't fit to play. A huge loss for any side.

But that doesn't matter anyway because Spain are not France. As we know France relied heavily on Zidane. Spain don't rely on one player, they are a proper team where the individual is only one cog in the machine. And that's a great way to describe Spain... they are a machine that destroys nations.

As I said before age might catch up with Spain, but until I see it with my own eyes I expect them to do what they always do...win.

Can't have Spain at all. The golden generation enjoyed a golden period - but that time is gone. Youth and bravery wins this World Cup.

BTW, terrific work and write-up MC. You've helped narrow my selection process a fair bit. Much appreciated.

looking better all the time now for costa rica deriative bets i put up page 2, smash these prop bets

told u fellas about that uruguay forward - looks like hes had a very hard season it came up on him now which always happens to strikers who have had an above average season ...not a massive shock

cr7 will suck in the wc - why ,not sure he has the hunger -  he will be pretty happy with the champs lg as i said i seen an interview with him the other day , was not positive at all about wc

Fantastic work marychain. Really great that you've put the time and effort in. much appreciated. thanks.

thankyou

Enjoyed reading this mc1, lots of ideas to work with now, thanks

reminder to all who bet outright on betfair from page 2 , please wait on the outright market many teams will be pushed out as the big players enter the market, since last week 90% of the teams have moved out

different when a player get injured then certain teams in same group will move in - so wait on outsiders in particular

Added Dzeko top scorer 80/1 with Padds & £5 free bet every goal scored.

Also added point values to my bets.

Brazil to win World Cup 3/1 General (keeping an eye for offers in run-up) 2 points
Uruguay to win World Cup 28/1 Coral (Refund as free bet if Brazil/Argentina win WC) .5 point
Portugal to win World Cup 33/1 .5 point
Japan to make QF 6/1 .5 point
Ghana to make QF 10/1 .5 point
David Luiz 66/1 POT .25 point
Keisuke Honda 250/1 Top Goalscorer .25 point ew
Edin Dzeko 80/1 Top Goalscorer .5 point ew
--------------------
Cameroon to qualify from Group A 9/2 .25 point
Croatia to finish bottom of Group A 4/1 .25 point
Spain/Chile dual forecast in Group B 21/10 .5 point
Japan to qualify from Group C 5/4 .5 point
Uruguay to win group D 2/1 .5 point
Italy to finish bottom of Group D 16/1 .25 point
No bet from Group E -
Group F to be the highest scoring 7/1 no bet placed due to price change
Lay Germany as group G winners at 1.65 or less laid on Betfair laid to win 1 point
Lay Germany to qualify from Group G laid to win 1 point
Ghana to qualify from Group G 11/4 .5 point
Korea to qualify from Group H 15/8 .25 point

Thanks for all the hard work; much appreciated and definitely made me think twice / to strengthen my confidence in certain bets

Main bets so far -

Group B - Dual Forecast Spain/Chile 2.88
          Quadcast      Spain/Chile/Holland/Australia   5.2
Group C - Japan Qualify 2.1-2.2
Group D - Dual Forecast England/Italy 3
Group E - Dual Forecast Ecuador/France 2.96

Winner
Germany 7.4  /  Argentina 5.8

Outside Bets

Top Scorer
Aguero  18 , Higuain  22 , Ibisevic  170

Tournament Hat-trick?  No 4.2

Group B
Dual Forecast  England / Costa Rica   46
Rock Bottom    Uruguay                11

what is everyones views on France.

I have them in the dark horse -long shot bracket

they have a decent team..I have them down to meet the germans in the quarter finals.

the germans have the most punishing group matches with games with 1.00 kick offs in the hottest part of brazil in recife and salvador...this will drain them no end.. the germans will be knackered

think france could then have a real chance of beating Germany to make the semis v brazil

good chance i reckon

plus i feel France really want to make amends after the debacle of 2010... Benzema,Ribery, plus that Paul Pogba looks some playerfor Juventus

Fergie made a huge mistake letting him go from Man.Utd..

by the way excellent stuff marychain.. top drawer informative analysis.. really appreciate your efforts

Twitter has just went mad with rumours Ribery is out.

v possible these rumours are true....the french papers already reported that he was not going to make it like yesterdy.....for the whole season he has had plenty of injury problems...very good player they will miss him for sure...

massive drift on France if those rumours are true..

he is their best player

For me, from a philosophical point of view a Brazilian victory would be a disaster
Not only do we have the controversial spending by the brazilian government at the
behest of FIFA
But Brazil under Scolari are a horrible team to watch
Think Mourinho's chelsea and youre getting close
There was an article in the Guardian (yes i am a coont) last saturday featuring the reminiscences by the brazilian team of 82, how awful they felt that they couldnt win the cup
That was the last great Brazilian team
A team built on possession football with stellar names like Zico, Socrates, Falcao
Ever since Brazil have gone into the world cup obsessing about the tactical threat of their european opponents
The wins in 94 and 2002 were predicated solely on the fact they had the best strikers
in the world
Romario and Bebeto in the Usa
Original-Ronaldo, Rivaldo and Ronaldinho in Japan
The rest of the team were utter dogsh!te imo (ok cafu and roberto carlos)
2014 seems no different
Tho for those taking the Brazil 3/1, are Fred, Hulk and Neymar the best strikers in the world?
Really?
I have to respect the Mary chain's opinion
The big thing for me about the world cup is what an absolute slog and a pain in the erse it must be for the players
You just finished an exhausting season and then it goes on for another 2 months in the sweltering heat of brazil
Make no mistake
There will be plenty of high profile millionaires, used to getting their own way in the big leagues of europe, dogging it at the first sign of trouble
Brazil will be at an advantage as their players will be supremely motivated
MC is right, the confed cup showed that.
But to me Brazil were fortunate to get by Uruguay in the semis, with a late goal in a game in which the home side were turgid
And as for the final
Well, to say the ref bottled it is an understatement.
The treatment of the spaniards was similar to what arsenal get at stoke
For most in england i suppose there will be little sympathy for barcelona players being dumped on their backsides but if the recent spanish run of success has shown anything it is resilience
Spain have been pasted by argentina and portugal in friendlies on their way to their world and european championships
I believe they would have learnt an awful lot from that confed cup game
I hope they have anyway.
It was a brazilian success built on counter attack and rugged pressuring in midfield
If anything, it showed that brazil are not the keepers of the beautiful game as so many lazy english journos will inform us in the coming weeks.
That honour lies with Spain now.
Spain are champions. So many of their squad have that mentality, you know that champion mentality that the likes of michael schumacher
valentino rossi, lennox lewis, mayweather, froch, ap mccoy, ruby, ryan moore, phil taylor (i could go on) have.
casillas, xabi alonso, sergio ramos, pique, xavi, ini I am convinced that they are dying for another crack at Brazil
Key man for me has to be Javi Martinez
I can not for the life of me see how Busquets gets the midfield job ahead of him
JM is the man who won Bayern the UCL last year
He is a one man antidote to the counter attack
Jupp Heynckes knew he could leave Javi protecting the back four and let schweini and the boys up field to dominate possession
Guardiola like Del Bosque is unconvinced and dropped him
THere was a telling sign in that awful 4-0 thrashing at the hands of real madrid that had so many neanderthals in the english press bellowing the death of tiki taka
Martinez came on at 3-0 down with Bale and CR7 running riot
Schweinsteiger and the hapless toni kroos were painfully unable to cope
All of a sudden a lightning fast break. Ronaldo to Bale, its on
Out of nowhere Martinez emerges closes bale down
instead of a shot on goal, the ball drifts harmlessly out into touch..

Sorry I can not have a counter attacking Brazil winning the world cup
I do not know how many teams will have the ability to prevent them winning though
THe Germans have some wonderful players but they do not seem like the Germans of old
THe one tough game in qualifying, Sweden at home, they dogged it letting in Zlatan after being 4-0 up.
I can't have argentina either
They are so ripe to be caught on the counter like 4 years ago, I would fear for them v Brazil or even Uruguay
France, Italy and the neverneverlands, I would not fancy them to beat Brazil
England, dear old bloody minded england
They will give it a good lash as usual but no

For me
Spain must have their revenge v Brazil
If the unthinkable happens and spain are eliminated before this game
then I will have to join the legions of numpties who claim the champions league is more important than the world cup
That really would be a reason to mourn the death of the importance of the world cup

My money is on Spain £25 at coral, money back if Brazil or Argentina win it,get on!

Excellent post.

By the way MC you can get 1966/1 England to win WC....Bet666 max £1 bet first 1966 customers I know you like good offers!
Perhaps it reflects Englands true odds but hey its only a quid.

great post latarps. And agree with you completely.

I have added

Brazil v Uruguay final 66/1 Betvictor
Brazil v Belgium final 35/1 Paddy Power

I've added the following team top goalscorer trixie

Griezmann (France) 9/1
Honda (Japan) 11/2
Lukaku (Belgium) 2/1

Also done a bigger single on Griezmann at 12/1

Griezmann top 4 (TG) 42.0

its been confirmed that Frank Ribery is out of world cup.

Shame for the tournament that all these top players are dropping like flies

its helping me

top fred again marychain - on a par with your Giro D'Italia fred

great shout earlier in this thread about how hot/humid it is in Forteleza and how Germany have got their games in the worst conditions -  conditions definitely helped Ghana tonight

brazil are not looking like champions elect .. expect a few more dodgy decisions to go their way if they are to reach the final

if things go as planned then on the evidence of what we have seen so far France or Germany have a great chance of knocking them out in the semi finals

Mary, was taking a look back at your group tips.  Hasn't been an easy tournament for the punter that's for sure and you are looking odds on for a Moneytree style clean sweep.

Cameroon to qualify from Group A 5/1 L
Croatia to finish bottom of Group A 4/1 L
Spain/Chile dual forecast in Group B 21/10 L
Japan to qualify from Group C 5/4 L
Uruguay to win group D 15/8 L
Italy to finish bottom of Group D 16/1 L
No bet from Group E
Group F to be the highest scoring 7/1 L
Lay Germany as group G winners at 1.65 or less Pending L
Lay Germany to qualify from Group G at 1.18 Pending L
Ghana to qualify from Group G 3/1 Pending L
Korea to qualify from Group H 15/8 L

Best laid plans and all that

I do hope that spreadsheet you distributed contained contact details for Ocean Finance.

ozy - i begged people to follow me like 5 times in this thread

i buried the books

had 7 winners one loser on my prop bets from page 2

i just put up a nice strong bet from pp website for the usa game get on them at pp asian handicaps

might not have got much right here but still one of the best tipsters on here long term..

Easy to aftertime ozymandias.

Marychain a proper judge of sport. We all get it wrong sometimes.

Quite right Jed...I am also having a poor tournament to date.

No idea where your accusation of after-timing comes from.

the previews from marychain1 were very good

i look for factual info not really opinions from this - they helped.

i put some decent prop bets ...i was always going to win

marys tips were chronic beyond belief , his silence his deafening!!

Absolute shocker from me. Never had a worse tournament in any sport. I didn't even do that well on the individual matches after a decent start, and ended up down overall on those too. I lost interest after the Brazil exit and only even watched the final cos the missus wanted to. Guess you can't win them all. Still, I'm clearing up on le tour.