Not for the faint hearted - Uraguay vs Germany thread

4. If you have steel balls you will make a load but even if you have walter softy balls you can still make money on this game

5.  There have been Fourteen 3rd place play off games (in total)

Yeah it's usually Overs but the price will reflect that so i wouldn't bother

6.  There has been ONE draw

7. No games have ended nil nil

tobermory Joined: 01 Mar 08
Replies: 12501 08 Jul 10 22:42   


Yeah it's usually Overs but the price will reflect that so i wouldn't bother

do you think the price does reflect that?

weighed in on over 2.5, price already down 3 ticks since my BANK JOB at 1.79.  Will look to trade out my BANK in around 1.7.

FREE MONEY alert

8. Average goals 3.57

Sshhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

don't know i'll have a look what it is

1.76 for Over 2.5 compared to 2.66 for the final does seem to me that the market is very aware of the stats

36k now wants 1.77

Do goals scored in the match still count in Golden Boot Competition?

yes! but Klose and Forlan both major doubts!

That Polish fella scored a million all those years ago didn't he

.. you can lead a horse to water

Paul octopus picks Germany - GAME OVER URUGUAY

Suarez hat-trick for great justice

obviously people are rushing for the overs, but its also worth noting that since the 6-3 in 1958 the number of goals has been quite tightly distributed:

12 matches 1962-2006
1  3 times (1962, 1966, 1970  GER-URU)
2  none
3  4 times (1966, 1974, 1990, 1998)
4  3 times (1986, 1994, 2006)
5  2 times (1982, 2002)
and that only one of these was uq (Sweden 4-0 up at half time in 1994).  four games have been 0-0 at half-time, ending 1-0 (twice), 2-1 and 3-1 (2006).  from an overs perspective the only notable thing is that the last seven five have been over 2.5 in the first half (about 6/1 shot) with the other two being 0-0 but finishing over 2.5.

tbh its just cherry picking data and I couldn't enthuse about betting on this any more than using stats to analyse the Charity Shield

Can't agree with that that.  The stats that I used are not cherry picking at all.  The figures I quoted relate to all the third place games ever played - 14 in total starting in 1954. 11 of these games produced over 2.5 goals - 78.5%

I'm not sure why you chose to exclude the 1958 and 1954 games which produced 9 and 4 goals respectively.

Figures for all 14 games are as follows

Over 1.5 78.5%
Over 2.5 78.5%
Over 3.5 50%
Over 4.5 21.4%

This is not a sample of games, it's all 3rd place games.  Nothing selective about it all.

Have to say you can back overs as around a 56-57% chance currently, which looks pretty reasonable, given a 100% record for the last seven times this match was played. Of course it also depends on which sides etc, but Germany have hardly been goal-shy have they here, and aren't unbeatable at the back either (cf England game eg).

A question in terms of fundamentals would be why these games have generally ended as overs - no real reason to play defensively I would suggest. Death or glory at that point the usual approach, losing doesn't really matter, but winning ends their WC on a high note.

end of discussion then?

7 is a rather small sample.

True, but 100% is a rather large effect.

If both teams want to win then i would think they will both not want to concede goals.I agree it wont be a defensive game,but at the same time defences will be disciplined i suspect.
Something like 2-1 either way for me.

2-1 is enough. [;)]

Should be a nice 0-0 lay too?

Away you go then Shrewd,quids in.

When do we even find out the team lineups? Should give us a clue to how seriously they are taking it.

Think there is value in laying Germany to score.

In the knockout stages overs have won 8-6 even though you could have got well over evens,more like 6/4, on a lot of the games.

Even though the bet is starting to look too obvious, considering the past results of the play-off & the two teams involved (uruguay concede and score) 1.78 is still a bet in my view and i'm having a similar bet on +3.5 and a small one on +4.5.

If its not then fair enough but its a bet which is well worth a stab imo.

I think it's a cracking bet - of course it's not guaranteed, but no bet ever is.

1.78!! Each to their own.Not for me though.

1.78 * 8 = 14.28,about right then,no exclamation marks needed


would maybe be less for a Man u v Spurs game which would translate to something similar.

Dont like betting at those odds in a Football match,too unpredictable for my liking.

I assume looking at the top goalscorer market, that Klose is not playing.

hey guys there have been rumours about lucas podolski not playing tonight. how true is it?

Podolski was reported to have been a doubt because he had a touch of flu.. but don't know anyhting more than that.

ive read on a german site klose is out

on a german forum ive read podolski is also out but neither official as far as i can see

And their first choice goalkeeper is also out. Fancying the Uruguayans for this now and with a second or third choice keeper, Forlan must fancy his chances of a goal or two.

don't forget suarez, monster price imo

Thanks for the reminder elise, already have him well onside.

I cannot believe that Forlam is the same price as Klose for top goalscorer. Forlan is starting and Klose is not!!

i guess they may still declare klose as a sub, not seen teams officially announced just the stuff in german press

flu for most of those missing and klose is a back injury

klose has come back in, assume he may be sub??

Klose sub confirmed

Forlan and / or Suarez starting ??????

Yes, both Forlan and Suarez are in the starting line-up.

Müller will have a good chance at top scorer now.

prophetic.

Easy money overs backers!

1.78 -

best game so far, neither side is holding midfield so it's end to end

Forlan topgoalscorer, joint top, trading at 7.0 and thre is 20 minutes left or normal time, maybe another 30 ontop if stays a draw.

Seems a bit big

Add another FIVE to the history books... [;)]

wd guys

Had 10 on 3-2 Ger at 32 and 10 on Uru 3-2 at 44. ezy game :)