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christrinder
01 Jul 10 22:18
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Date Joined: 16 Jan 02
| Topic/replies: 75 | Blogger: christrinder's blog
Call me crazy but this doesn't seem too bad a bet. Vittek (no more games) currently sharing top spot on 4 goals with 2 others. The 40/1 on the win part of the bet seems OK, but the 8/1 on the place part is what attracts me to this bet.

Any comments? Only 5 others are on 3 Goals (only 4 of which are still playing). I think it is unlikley (but possible) someone currently on 2 will get to 5.

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Replies: 12
By:
kincsem
When: 01 Jul 10 22:59
I assume this is with a bookies.  And I assume you must back each-way, so 40/1 loss, and 8/1 win equals a 4/1 win.

If one other player gets to four goals you are ok, as Vittek is still top four.  If two or more other players get to top four you are in trouble.

3 players on 4 goals = 4/1 (present situation)
4 players on 4 goals = 4/1
5 players on 4 goals = 4/1 x 4/5 = 3.2/1
6 players on 4 goals = 4/1 x 4/6 = 2.7/1
7 players on 4 goals = 4/1 x 4/7 = 2.2/1

4 players on 5 goals = no return

3 players on 5 goals, 3 players on 4 goals = 4/1 x 1/3 = 1.3/1
3 players on 5 goals, 5 players on 4 goals = 4/1 x 1/5 = 0.8/1
By:
Baz
When: 01 Jul 10 23:20
Kincsem, the 4-1 over the 2 bets should be 7-2. Chris, given the topic header why is 8-1 being used not 10-1 for the place part?
By:
kincsem
When: 01 Jul 10 23:37
Mmmm.  I didn't read the header.  1/4 for 1,2,3.  I assumed it was for 1,2,3,4.  Possibly it is 1/5 odds.

If it is 1,2,3 then it is much more risky.  On Betfair it is 1,2,3,4.

Anyway I backed Vittek here at 7.55 and laid him at 2.2, small money but a profit.
By:
CLYDEBANK29
When: 01 Jul 10 23:38
kinscem you are talking 4 places not 3 and you are talking 1/5 not 1/4 and 1/5 is 7/2 not 4/1.  There is only 3 places here and a world of difference between 4 places and 3 places with this bet

Jenningsbet were going 66/1 1/4 the other day.  I thought of getting in the car but decided it wasnt worth the effort.  40/1 borderline I think as there are so many top goalscorers chomping at the bit with games to play only 1 or 2 behind.  I think there prob isnt much difference between 9/2 top 3 and the 2.18 top 4 on here although you've always got an outside chance of a dead ht on the win section
By:
kincsem
When: 01 Jul 10 23:42
^Our posts crossed.  Not worth it if it is 1,2,3 imo.
By:
AussiInUK
When: 02 Jul 10 13:09
A suicidal bet, not worth it at all, you are looking at all games from here on in finishing 0-0 or 1-0, not a chance.
By:
christrinder
When: 02 Jul 10 18:43
That is a 'brave' call. I guess you are disappointed that you can;t lay this eventuality as there is "not a chance" of it happening. Good luck with your betting - not sure if you are new to gambling, given the 'join' date of your username of 06.05.10.
By:
CLYDEBANK29
When: 02 Jul 10 18:48
result getting Fabiano out.
By:
AussiInUK
When: 02 Jul 10 18:55
So what are you up against, Klose, Forlan, Messi et al, Villa, Robben etc

Don't fancy your chances here at all, but good luck. And you can guarantee the 3rd/4th place game is high scoring, it usually is.
By:
Rich W
When: 02 Jul 10 20:06
I am on top 4 only at 7.6, but layed off at 2 when scored vs holland!
By:
Baz
When: 02 Jul 10 20:08
I'm uncertain whether this is Chris Trinder of the kickingbets blog assume it is) but if it is, laying his bets has not proved too profitable for the bookmakers. The guy merits respect.
By:
CLYDEBANK29
When: 02 Jul 10 22:22
Suarez sent off and Gyan missed the pen... looking better by the game this one
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