World Cup
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11 Jun 10
14:19
Joined:
Date Joined:
15 Mar 07
First time I've done one of these, so bear with me. Here's the plan:
1. Start with a £10 bank.
2. Bet on matches only (ie. not Group Winners or Top Goalscorer or anything like that, just the individual match markets).
3. Prices are Betfair prices.
4. Commission at 5%.
That's it. First to £1000 is the winner.
Here are my Day 1 selections:
Match 1: RSA v Mex
Over 2.5: 5.00 @ 2.8 (or SP)
Rationale: Both teams gee'd up, massive atmosphere and neither wants a draw. Only possible downside is that Mex go 2-0 up and then sit back and soak up the pressure.
Match 2: Uru v Fra
Uruguay to win: 5.00 @ 3.85 (or SP)
Rationale: France were poor in qualifying, are without a talisman and have never been that good in group stages. Uruguay can score for fun, are very attacking and will fancy this.
Yes, there's every possibility of being wiped out on the first day with this, but that's half the fun. :-)
1. Start with a £10 bank.
2. Bet on matches only (ie. not Group Winners or Top Goalscorer or anything like that, just the individual match markets).
3. Prices are Betfair prices.
4. Commission at 5%.
That's it. First to £1000 is the winner.
Here are my Day 1 selections:
Match 1: RSA v Mex
Over 2.5: 5.00 @ 2.8 (or SP)
Rationale: Both teams gee'd up, massive atmosphere and neither wants a draw. Only possible downside is that Mex go 2-0 up and then sit back and soak up the pressure.
Match 2: Uru v Fra
Uruguay to win: 5.00 @ 3.85 (or SP)
Rationale: France were poor in qualifying, are without a talisman and have never been that good in group stages. Uruguay can score for fun, are very attacking and will fancy this.
Yes, there's every possibility of being wiped out on the first day with this, but that's half the fun. :-)
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keeping it simple 10pound on france at 2.24[the undisputed bet of the week imo] avoiding the saffrica match too tricky
I'll try
(all Mexico vs. South Africa)
£5 on DRAW NO BET (back Mexico) - 1.87
£3 on Bookings Odds (lay 9pts and above) - 1.85
£2 on First Goal Odds (back 81-90 mins) - 21
(all Mexico vs. South Africa)
£5 on DRAW NO BET (back Mexico) - 1.87
£3 on Bookings Odds (lay 9pts and above) - 1.85
£2 on First Goal Odds (back 81-90 mins) - 21
£10 double 2/1
France @ 4/6 corner match bet
Uruguay -0.5 @ 1.80 Asian Hcp cards
France @ 4/6 corner match bet
Uruguay -0.5 @ 1.80 Asian Hcp cards
£5 on DRAW NO BET (back Mexico) - 1.87 - Void
£3 on Bookings Odds (lay 9pts and above) - 1.85 - Win (£2.85)
£2 on First Goal Odds (back 81-90 mins) - 21 - Lose (-£2.00)
£10 -> £10.85 slowly but surely...
£3 on Bookings Odds (lay 9pts and above) - 1.85 - Win (£2.85)
£2 on First Goal Odds (back 81-90 mins) - 21 - Lose (-£2.00)
£10 -> £10.85 slowly but surely...
cmon diego you hairbag!! we dont wanna have to re-load 2moro!!
£4 on Match odds (lay France) – 2.28
£4 on France clean sheet (No) – 1.61
£3 on DRAW NO BET (back France) – 1.67
£4 on France clean sheet (No) – 1.61
£3 on DRAW NO BET (back France) – 1.67
Rubbish. That's me wiped out, but it took the woodwork to stop the third goal in match 1. Better luck the rest of you.
Send us your pay pal addy wonga me old chum and send you another tenner over to have another bash.
you giving up already m8! after 2 matches! cmon ffs.....RE-LOAD!! you know you wanna!
RE-LOAD!
A brand new fresh £10 in the kitty, and ready for day 2.
Going to be a little more circumspect today - if nothing else, there's 3 matches to cover.
Match 3: S. Korea v Greece
Under: 2.5: 3.00 @ 1.48
Rationale: Greece will do their usual counter-punching game and South Korea will be less than all-guns-blazing since nobody wants to lose the first match. Under 3.5 is nailed on, but little value so going Under 2.5 for (hopefully some) excitement.
A brand new fresh £10 in the kitty, and ready for day 2.
Going to be a little more circumspect today - if nothing else, there's 3 matches to cover.
Match 3: S. Korea v Greece
Under: 2.5: 3.00 @ 1.48
Rationale: Greece will do their usual counter-punching game and South Korea will be less than all-guns-blazing since nobody wants to lose the first match. Under 3.5 is nailed on, but little value so going Under 2.5 for (hopefully some) excitement.
I take it we're going all in on this?
Bet 1 (placed at 365)
£10 double 2/1
France @ 4/6 corner match bet
Uruguay -0.5 @ 1.80 Asian Hcp cards
returned £30
Bet 2 (365 again)
£30 double 2.94/1
Argentina/Nigeria over 4.5 cards 5/6
England/USA +2.5 goals 23/20
Bet 1 (placed at 365)
£10 double 2/1
France @ 4/6 corner match bet
Uruguay -0.5 @ 1.80 Asian Hcp cards
returned £30
Bet 2 (365 again)
£30 double 2.94/1
Argentina/Nigeria over 4.5 cards 5/6
England/USA +2.5 goals 23/20
All-in or not, it's up to you. Good pick on the France corners, BTW.
A winner at last.
Under 2.5: 3.00 @ 1.48 wins 1.44 - 0.07 = 1.37
Bank: 11.37
Match 4: Argentina v Nigeria
Penalty taken: Yes 3.00 @ 3.65
Rationale: There's no value in the bookings markets, but I doubt anyone would be overly surprised by a penalty in this match. Good value.
Under 2.5: 3.00 @ 1.48 wins 1.44 - 0.07 = 1.37
Bank: 11.37
Match 4: Argentina v Nigeria
Penalty taken: Yes 3.00 @ 3.65
Rationale: There's no value in the bookings markets, but I doubt anyone would be overly surprised by a penalty in this match. Good value.
I'm in...
Bet 1 = Multiples +3.5 goals in both matches (Argentina v Nigeria and England v USA)
£10 stake at odds of 12.16
Bet 1 = Multiples +3.5 goals in both matches (Argentina v Nigeria and England v USA)
£10 stake at odds of 12.16
Loss from match 4: = -3.00
Bank: 8.37
Match 6: Algeria v Slovenia
Algeria +0.5 & +1.0: 2.00 @ 2.17
Rationale: There isn't as much between these two teams as all that. Given the low scoring matches so far, and again the feeling that whoever loses this one goes home, it should be pretty tight.
Bank: 8.37
Match 6: Algeria v Slovenia
Algeria +0.5 & +1.0: 2.00 @ 2.17
Rationale: There isn't as much between these two teams as all that. Given the low scoring matches so far, and again the feeling that whoever loses this one goes home, it should be pretty tight.
Winnings from Match 6: +0.16
Bank: 8.53
Match 7: Serbia v Ghana
Bookings Odds 9+: 2.00 @ 1.6
Rationale: At major champs, Serbia seem to collect cards like they have shares in Pannini. Ghana, without the star turn, will defend like terriers. 1.6 is just about value.
Also,
Under 4.5 goals: 6.53 @ 1.09 (or SP)
Rationale: There hasn't been more than 2 goals in a game yet. This one should be a little more expansive, but 5? No way. So, the rest of the bank goes on this for a few coppers.
Bank: 8.53
Match 7: Serbia v Ghana
Bookings Odds 9+: 2.00 @ 1.6
Rationale: At major champs, Serbia seem to collect cards like they have shares in Pannini. Ghana, without the star turn, will defend like terriers. 1.6 is just about value.
Also,
Under 4.5 goals: 6.53 @ 1.09 (or SP)
Rationale: There hasn't been more than 2 goals in a game yet. This one should be a little more expansive, but 5? No way. So, the rest of the bank goes on this for a few coppers.
Winnings from Match 7: 0.56 + 1.14 = 1.70
Bank: 10.23
Match 8: Germany v Australia
Correct Score 2 - 0: 2.00 @ 7.6
Rationale: Germany far too well organized to concede, especially given the low-scoring nature of the tournament so far. Proven WC goalscorers in Podolski + Klose should trouble the Ozzie defence.
Bank: 10.23
Match 8: Germany v Australia
Correct Score 2 - 0: 2.00 @ 7.6
Rationale: Germany far too well organized to concede, especially given the low-scoring nature of the tournament so far. Proven WC goalscorers in Podolski + Klose should trouble the Ozzie defence.
Losses from Match 8: -2.00
Bank: 8.23
Match 9: Netherlands v Denmark
Denmark +1: 4.00 @ 1.96
Rationale: Denmark only conceded 5 goals in qualifying (1 of which was after they had won the group). They are a good defensive unit and do not over-rely on Bendtner up front so a goal for them could come from any source.
Bank: 8.23
Match 9: Netherlands v Denmark
Denmark +1: 4.00 @ 1.96
Rationale: Denmark only conceded 5 goals in qualifying (1 of which was after they had won the group). They are a good defensive unit and do not over-rely on Bendtner up front so a goal for them could come from any source.
Losses from Match 9: -4.00
Bank: 4.23
Match 10: Japan v Cameroon
Under 3.5 goals: 4.23 @ 1.2
Rationale: Time for a banker. Eto'o has not been doing the business for Cameroon, goals have been hard to come by in South Africa. This is not going to be a goal-fest.
Bank: 4.23
Match 10: Japan v Cameroon
Under 3.5 goals: 4.23 @ 1.2
Rationale: Time for a banker. Eto'o has not been doing the business for Cameroon, goals have been hard to come by in South Africa. This is not going to be a goal-fest.
Winnings from Match 10 +0.81
Bank: 5.04
Match 11: Italy v Paraguay
Italy Clean Sheet: 5.04 @ 2.3
Rtaionale: Another banker. Paraguay never start well (OK, nor do Italy, but at least they should be well-organised at the back). Then there's the low goal count, plus the must-not-lose factor, plus it's an evening match, therefore played in a cooler atmosphere. Oh, and there's Buffon. Paraguay won't score.
Bank: 5.04
Match 11: Italy v Paraguay
Italy Clean Sheet: 5.04 @ 2.3
Rtaionale: Another banker. Paraguay never start well (OK, nor do Italy, but at least they should be well-organised at the back). Then there's the low goal count, plus the must-not-lose factor, plus it's an evening match, therefore played in a cooler atmosphere. Oh, and there's Buffon. Paraguay won't score.
Pfffffffft. Wiped out again. Enough of this nonsense - back to making markets.
Good luck the rest of you.
Good luck the rest of you.
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