Friday US

tam r4, laid 1, gl

Hi Risky. I'm on 1 and 7 at TAM.

I missed AQU unfortunately mate. Really glad to see you on here tonight. I'm sure I would have sympathised whatever happened!

ah, glad to see you, metaphorically speaking, i feel better already !

Well done with the lay of the 1 mate. It was absolutely nailed. Sometimes I think I need to learn some of your secrets. Pretty sure the 7 got there didn't it? So good starting with a winner.

haha glad you feel better mate. :)

yes, 7 wd

Get in. Buzzing about that. You'll have to tell me how you knew the 1 would be so bad!

Thanks Risky.

Great getting off to a flyer. Hope that sets the tone for the night.

I don't know, you can go round in circles on this. the more you analyse the more you can talk yourself into or out of something and i think in the end your gut feel after a quick pass through the pp is the way to go with an understanding of any track bias. most of the time that does me ok but every now and then you get a shock and most of us have a bogey jockey who defies the odds and for me at the moment that is definitely mr carmouche. formerly of parx fame

that's in response to your earlier praise of course but hopefully this will be a good one

also i won't deny i was more sure of the tampa lay than the aq lay, so if i was truly a pro i'd leave aq but we want to play them all. innit?!

You can definitely go round in circles. I know where you're coming from there. The truth is, there's no right answer. It's about giving each factor suitable weighting to gauge a price. A lot of angles seem very paradoxical. A class drop for instance. Is it a positive that the horse was racing at a higher claiming price last time out or does is it a sign that it's having problems hence the trainer lowering its price? It might be a downfall of mine that I don't give enough consideration to jockey bookings, although Danny Centeno is a jockey I always look out for. Seems to have the skill to give a horse a few extra lengths. I've taken note of your praise of Carmouche. You've always said he's a good jock.

I definitely I could do with passing on more races. I bet when I've only got very tight value margins when I really should weight for the bets where I've got a solid edge.

carmouche i under or over estimate in the wrong way. i haven't got the measure of the significance of him as a jockey booking, i admit it, that's all. i don't think he is great at all but he must be on the up

Well, I suppose if I should be skipping more races then the next at AQU is one to skip because I'm really struggling.

laid 1 aq hastily, gl

and also you can tell by the prices that bf video is behind the real off

That reminds me of how I am with Preciado. The high % trainer at Philladelphia. I either underestimate him or overestimate him. Never seem to quite to suss him out.

TAM

8 at 2.4.

serves me right, too hasty there

Hmm. It does appear to be behind. You can tell it's about 1 minute behind from the in-play markets.

I take it the 1 won at AQU? I was looking at it and thinking of backing it, but then just thought "what has it really achived?" There were a number of class droppers in that field and sub 3.0 was probably too short for the 1, so I don't think you made a bad bet particularly. There was logic to it.

Achieved.

TAM

9 - 10 - 8

i know, i'm not making terrible picks, on another night i'd be looking good. but i'll admit i don't think i'll have the £1m by Xmas this year

TAM

9 - 10 - 8

I'll be completely honest too. 2016 has been very poor for me so far and the £1m is in jeopardy, but I still have a lot of faith. You have to ride the rollercoaster in this game.

i'm down in 2016 for sure, not hugely but won't pretend otherwise. slightly up on a rolling 12 months but not much, so nothing to write home about. but i am definitely improving with age. like a fine wine

AQU

8 at 4.8.
9 at 13.0.

haha. I've definitely improved with age. When I started doing this I didn't have a clue. I think it was at least 7 years before I truly had an edge. I know that sounds mad.

want to lay the 10 but haven't got a single one there right tonight.. so then the over analyisis and you see reasons why it will win. it will be the reverse of how you look at a race i know

The only thing I like about the 10 is its Beyer ratings and I'm very sceptical about the credibility of Beyer ratings. I certainly use Beyer ratings, but I always see what the card looks like with the Beyer ratings hidden.

I've backed the 9 again at 16.0.

but i have laid the 10 fwiw. 1st instincts are usually the best, gl

TAM

5 to win at 3.7. 5 to finish top 3 at 1.5.

GET IN THEEEEEEEEEEEEEERRRWEEEEE

COME OOON

Well done. You nailed that 10.

Going to make a phone call now which could mean I miss the next races at TAM and AQU, but hopefully I'll be back for the races after.

Backed the 5 at TAM again at 4.7. The person I planned to call is busy.

TAM

Backed 5 again to finish top 3 at 1.75.

aq 6 laid 5, gl

I'll be very disappointed if the 5 doesn't finish in the top 3 because it would contradict all my handicapping methodology!

Gutted. Did you mean AQU or TAM?

gawd, i meant tam and said aq which is pp (piss poor) to start with and then i realise that was your back. not happy, soory

AQU R6

3 at 1.74.

ok i'll lay my cards on the table the 3 doesn't look at 1.74 shot to me in that company, so i'll lay it. but you are better at picking winners at big prices than me, so i know i'm overlooking something, gl

No, don't worry mate. As I say. I feel I could learn a lot from you. There's a lot of times you out-read me!

There are*

You may well be right. I think it's more of a 1.5 shot, but everyone agreed, there wouldn't be a market.

lol it would all be 1.0001 but we'd all be winners

but if*

could just eat drink and sleep and program bots to bring home the bacon

TAM

9 at 2.2.

Yes! Exactly.

i've clearly boobed at aq but gl to you

wd, the finish was there

Thanks mate.

What do you think of the 9 at Tampa?

tampa favours the outside on the dirt so that would make me lay the 2 at the price on bf right now

Also backed 9 to finish top 3 at 1.35.

It's on turf though isn't it?

on the turf.. but you knew what i meant

haha . after I posted that, I was thinking "that's what he probably meant".

outside has an advantage on the turf at tampa on the distances 1m+

GET IN THEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEREEEEEEEEEEEEEE

and there you are.. 9 wins

wd

That's because I knew that the outsider runners on the turf at Tampa have an advantage! LOL

In all honesty, I didn't have a clue.

Thanks mate. Well done you too.

ha ha now you tell me

you do realise people follow us anonymously and blindly on here, there was quite a kerfuffle a few weeks back when certain people hadn't seen you for a while

instead of 'where's wally' i am thinking of writing something entitled 'where's rowan?'it's got more substance to it than 'where's risky?'

tam r8 laid 1, gl

i'm guessing you have had to take (or make) one of your phone calls

i am trying for a PW (personal worst) at aq, how many bad lays can i call in a row..

ayup there's me thinking the 1 looks short and guess who's on board, yes it's scaramouche come and do the fandango

i do think that he's too short so i've laid it but my track record here is pp tonight, gl

That's exactly what I've been doing. Making my phone calls. I'm going to be called back ina  second, but I'll be back soon mate hopefully! Hope things turn around for you. You know what you're doing mate.

yep, my wosrt ever at aq

TAM R9

6 to finish top 3 at 1.26. Think the barn change is a positive.

Scaramouche and do the fandango. hahaha . I take it he rode the 1 to victory>?

yeah v annoyed with mr fandango at the mo

tam r9, laid 1, gl

i need to recalibrate mr fandango somehow. he will be the next generation ramon dominguez of the NE states tracks i guess

Anyone still about? Sorry I abandoned you Risky. Phone call went on for ages. haha Mr Fandango. Let me know when you've recalibrated him.

TP R2

3 at 8.4.

6 at 3.8.

TP

6-3-7

CT

8 at 5.5

Anyone got pictures at Turfway?

I'm not sure Thommos. I did get pictures earlier today.

CT R2

5 at 4.3.
6 at 6.6.

TP

2 at 2.3.

Thommas. I've got pictures at Turfway now.

TP

Also backed 5 at 6.0.

Cheers Rowan - nothing here, just freezes at "connecting"