Saturday US

I've got to admit, I was actually looking at the 3 at 22.0, thinking hmmm, I'm sure that could be worth laying! haha glad I didn't

AQU

3 at 30.0+
4 at 30.0+
5 at 2.98.

Weak field.

laid the 8 at aq, tho jockey is on form but if i look past that i would lay it so hey ho, gl

and this jockey owes me plenty from his parx days

crap i'm kicking myself over that

there was a shorter price crying out to be laid, grrr

of all my bad picks tonight, that's the first one that's annoyed me

TAM

6 at 11.5.

laid 8, gl

I could never have called the 8 at AQU to be fair.

wasn't even my worst in terms of the £ loss, just had a bad feeling about the jockey booking vis a vis the prices and so it proved

6 just doesn't run on dirt. Another Gulfstream Park shipper wins at Tam. Starting to favour them again.

Glad your lay came in.

turf to dirt is actually an obvious angle but i forget these things, it suits a lot of the horses

there used to be a lot more posters on this forum who would help us with these things but it is so quiet these days.

including an ex jockey who knew the rules in terms of when they can 'change lane' so to speak

i guess they all made their betfair £million and moved on

AQU

2 at 2.54. Bought for $25,000 and then put straight back up for sale for $12,500. Seems a very dodgy class drop. Could very easily be a bluff and I won't be at all surprised if this hacks up, but more than happy to lay at that price.

yes, i am laying but is is scaramouche again

in other news i also laid man u in the footie and it is 0-0 with about 5 mins to go..

Turf / dirt is an angle I look at a lot.

Yes, I remember when the forum used to be buzzing. It was fun back then. Who was the ex jockey? Was he called Mark something?

Good luck with the Man U lay. Hope this comes in. Glad you've layed the same horse as me.

i need to remember the turf - dirt thing, you are more thorough than me in the form reading and deserve to make more from this. i find i over analyse, the more info i have, so have settled for a few key things but the first few races tonight are a lesson in why that is not enough, if you take this seriously

aq is lovely but man u got a penalty

will save lvg's bacon

that's tough for the sheff utd fans

Detail is never a bad thing, but I know what you mean about allowing minor details to obscure the obvious and I'm sure I've lost money through doing just that from time to time. It's a challenge to process all the factors and give them suitable weighting, but it's what makes the US horse racing market exploitable. If you put your mind to it and stay objective, you can ge the edge.

Pleased with our result at AQU.

Gutted about the Man U penalty. Damn it.

TAM

8 aat 15.0.

10 at 9.0.

I'm going to have to leave now unfortunately. I'm going out, but I could be back around midnight perhaps. Good luck. Shame I can't stay longer.

i agree, i firmly believe the us racing is far easier to make money from than the domestic fwiw

One more comment, I think the 10 suits the 1/2f cutback in trip at TAM.

no problem catch you next time, i'll be on next friday, if things go according to plan

laid 1 tup 1, gl

sun r1 laid 2, gl

aq 6 laid 1, gl

12 won't win aq either but not a cheap lay

laid 1 tam6, gl

laid 6 tup r2, gl

laid 1 sun2 gl

laid 11 aq r7, gl

aq8 laid 1, gl

aq9 taking on the fav, the 10, gl

ken tohill is a shockng jock hes on the fav here at sunland...nice lay

ken tohill is a shockng jock hes on the fav here at sunland...nice lay

Tale Of E Dubai
Victor R. Carrasco


Gassed this favourate...no judgement imo  (Missing Thebas may disagree reasoning something about US style of racing).....( My effort to flush Thebas out..

didn't see that race henry .. what track & race no .. I will look at the horse running style & campaign prep #

and di you observe the sectional breakdown (ie 1st 1/4 & 1st 1/2 ?)

Man I missed you..

Belated Happy New Christmas..

No attention to sectionals...just the usual let him run 5 lengths clear with the post the where in sight...

Importantly you are around ..so all good now.....

GL

Belated Happy New Christmas.



Happy New Year

TP

1 at 10.5. Promissing newcommer in a weak field.

No attention to sectionals

I see .. hard to form an opinion then imo

mate .. what track & race number please that race .. equibase will have their results & sectional breakdowns up in about ½ an hour .. and I will let you have my opinion

happy NY also

im doing 98% of mine purely on the US now

because I have an aopinion on the Oz racing and wish to express that in betting I actually now stop watching the Oz altogether .. too many mystery results over the chrissy hols in Oz for mine .. less so in the USA I have determined

PEN

3 at 10.0.

Thebas
Penn Race 3

Would be interested your opinion

cheers mate

here's the result page .. you were 100% correct in your observation (even without the sectionals)

https://www.equibase.com/premium/chartEmb.cfm?track=PEN&raceDate=01/09/16&cy=USA&rn=3

the fave was killed off in a blistering 22.40 up front .. they did the same thing with it in the $100k stakes race previously where it gassed also

the winner was the only other runner coming out of a stakes race and these 2 were the class keys in the race (#2 was scratched)

the winner was also gassed with a ridiculous pace in its last start but they obviously learned from the run or were just lucky running into a silly pace this race

regardless .. no horse had more than 5 career starts previously so I was NEVER interested in this race as a betting proposition

outside of the #1 horse's jock Dubai had the best performed jockey in the race though ... make up your own mind to the performance ... I won't be interested in following any of these horse till they are more race matured & the trainers have a better handle on their charges

a well spotted race assessment by you though

DED

8 at 15.5.

Thebas ..Cheers and GL

TP

1 at 2.6.

PEN

1 at 4.1.

Did No 8 run in the 4th at Penn?

PEN

Also backed 1 to finish top 3 at 1.47. Excellent price.

Evening campers,and in particular the maestro - Rowan.
Just back from the pub and need to recoup the beer money.
Hope you are all well.

dunno Dubguy didn't see the race

you can check here though in about 10 mins when equibase have their results up

https://www.equibase.com/premium/chartEmb.cfm?track=PEN&raceDate=01/09/2016&cy=USA

Sshhh

I laid it...( a rare fav lay 4 me...)....quietly ...never heard it in the run

SSSHHHHH

DED

7 at 1.95.

Hi Rothman! hahahah "the maestro". Thanks

all the best Rowan

your broberg runner is shipping in .. and with a "shipping in" jock (who won on it last time it was shipped by some 5 len)

the horse has changed hands 5 times in the last year ... all in claimers ... they all like the horse as a horse I guess

#3 is the only other leader I can see ... if they can somewhat control the #7's speed it should win I guess .. a watch race only for me & you got the best price

Will be expecting an email

Yep Henry - think they made a boo boo.

Thanks Bas. All the best to you too. Thanks for the summary.

TP

10 at 4.4. Think this suits the step up in trip.

Reversal just done

way it goes rowan ... a 10 year old now .. might be over for it who knows

the #2 (who rarely leads and only once before in the mud in the past year) was interestingly a prior broberg trained runner who had been also ridden by McMahon before ... but just a sidelight & no meaning to it ... the #2 pushed forward fresh and won gamely

PEN

10 at 3.6. This looks like an innocent class drop.

I did overlook its age I suppose.

DED

6 at 1.74. Dodgy class drop but expect this to return to form after barn change and disappointment last time out at Churchill Downs.

R86..I laid it at those odds no damage)...GL

WD R86

Thanks Henry. It was a bit suspicious how it was bought for $15k and then put straight  back up for sale for $7.5k, but I took the chance.

TP

5 at 13.0. Think this is well overpriced.

nice work rowan .. it had the work of the day at OP out of 123 horses prior to that race after its short break ..

was primed & good win

PEN

6 to finish top 3 at 1.33.

henry ... are you looking at DED 6 ? ... #2 freshened but ordinary work leading into it

... speedy and might gas dunno ... somewhat risky to lay as I can't find one to take it on ... but if they do take it on might be vulnerable ... all about the odds now I guess

Thanks Bas. That was the key. I thought it was ready based on the workout.

DED 6

will now ...closer to post time

TP

5 at 2.56. Won for double the claiming price over course and distance last time out. Not a horse that often leads, but has a slight pace advantage.

odds a bit high to lay ... will be an interesting watch tho

DED

5 at 6.0. Can see this improving second time out off layoff.

#2 at DED was the lay of the day ... wanted about 9/1 though .. oh well

a pedestrian 24/48 first splits and it was gone before the turn lol

money begging but hey .. there's another lay ahead somewhere

Strange...jumped 2 min early by my time

yes henry .. they've jumped early at DED before ... the club adjust their times I guess and BF don;t

PEN

7 at 2.98.

GL to all

I cant see yours in the run rowan

gl henry

oh they haven't even jumped yet ffs lol

DED

8 at 14.0. Think this suits the cutback in trip.
9 at 12.0. Won over course and distance last time out, closing very strongly.

haha, yeah, I was confused at Penn. Took them ages to start.

DED

Think the market is massively overreacting to the 4's lower grade win last time out.

TP

8 at 5.4. Think this is fit on return from layoff.

DED

4 at 4.5
5 at 4.5

I actually now stop watching the Oz altogether .. too many mystery results over the chrissy hols in Oz for mine .

Thebas-

Yes our industry is very light on integrity.

Leading Jockey breaks holy grail of rules and caught betting in a race he is in given 9 months.....another jailed in HK jurisdiction for another breach of holy grail rules in that country (caught at airport with very large sums of cash and then allowed to return to race riding after his jail sentence.....

yet if you remember my post year or so where young apprentice outed for not riding out a 100.00 mount in 5 th place when no result affected.....

Yes oz racing "integrity" for those that closely follow....is hollow......

Doubt very much if suspicious results over holiday period is of any consequence to guardians of integrity.....

And yes coincidently agree and made that same note to myself..... even resident tipster (7 per race) had something to say about it on his site.