U.S. Horse Racing
Welcome to Live View – Take the tour to learn more
Start Tour
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
Is anyone about?
TUP R1
Layed 1 at 4.6.
Not enough early pace for me.
TUP R1
Layed 1 at 4.6.
Not enough early pace for me.
Show More
TUP R4
2 to finish in top 3 at 1.16. Will take a lot to displace this.
2 to finish in top 3 at 1.16. Will take a lot to displace this.
the 7 looks the class horse race 4 sunland but would you back it at even money on only a 2f race
SUN R4
4 at 9.0. Seems overpriced on the basis of its win last time out.
4 at 9.0. Seems overpriced on the basis of its win last time out.
4th
my names mud will win better races than that in the future for sure
SUN R5
1 at 6.0.
7 8.0.
I've got a strong feeling that 5 has deteriorated since its barn change.
1 at 6.0.
7 8.0.
I've got a strong feeling that 5 has deteriorated since its barn change.
The 1 is win bet race 5 turf para, a massive drop in class for this horse and added plus its got veteran jockey scott stevens doing the sterring today
thought i was good at head bobbers, eye sight must be going
yeah they say 4 the mexican stewards can do what they like
SUN R6
1 at 3.5. Should improve second time out.
7 at 18.0. Good 5f workout frequency. If this has any pace it could go wire to wire in an otherwise paceless field.
1 at 3.5. Should improve second time out.
7 at 18.0. Good 5f workout frequency. If this has any pace it could go wire to wire in an otherwise paceless field.
SUN R6
Layed 6 at 4.1. Class dropper, but think it's dropping in class because it's poor.
Layed 6 at 4.1. Class dropper, but think it's dropping in class because it's poor.
you only need one big price horse to come in a night to make it work, if you get two or more happy days 
I've been denied big wins twice, once by half a length and another time by a head, so I feel like justice has been served.
if you wait long enough the big price horses come in, ive had one losing day in two months, and the other days made up for that ....... cant be afraid to go for the 20/1 - 50/1 shots
^ they dont all come in, but like i said you only need one a night
and to add lol ....... you need to know when to STOP !
SUN
I backed 1 at 8.0. Shame the price isn't there anymore. It's done well over in Sunland Park sprints. Barn change may well be a positive.
I backed 1 at 8.0. Shame the price isn't there anymore. It's done well over in Sunland Park sprints. Barn change may well be a positive.
Well, if you've got the edge, you don't need to know when to stop. You may as well keep betting.
The number of winners you require is relative to the odds at which you bet, assuming level stakes (I would never advocate betting at level stakes, but I'm simplifying things).
The number of winners you require is relative to the odds at which you bet, assuming level stakes (I would never advocate betting at level stakes, but I'm simplifying things).
SUN R7
8.4 available for the 1 again. Win at Zia Park over the distance last time out was encouraging.
8.4 available for the 1 again. Win at Zia Park over the distance last time out was encouraging.
TUP R7
9 at 4.0. Think the market is massively underestimating the 9's potential improvement on return to the dirt.
9 at 4.0. Think the market is massively underestimating the 9's potential improvement on return to the dirt.
wouldnt say an edge, more lucky sometimes ...... its recing 
To be fair, if you don't think you've got the edge, you shouldn't be betting.
There's a lot of variability in any sport, but some people are skilled at gauging value.
There's a lot of variability in any sport, but some people are skilled at gauging value.
It's about gauging the probability of a horse winning and exploiting value accordingly.
Like with the bet you've just made, if the probability of 5 winning is greater than 1 in 7, then it's good value, otherwise it's not good value. That's ignoring the commission charge.
Maybe you made a good bet. The question is, what should the true price have been? Should it have been 7.0? Was the probability of it winning greater than 1 in 7? Maybe it was. I'm not sure.
i just read the form of all the horses in a race, if i like one or if one stands out for me, i look at a number of factors and then the price last, if im happy with them all i'll have a bet
If you're reading form and gauging prices, you're probably being logical.
take tonight, ive might of had 10 bets ( im not counting ) ive just had a 13/1 and earlier a 18/1 . Most poeple watching would think im losing tonight
SUN R8
3 at 1.8.
What price do you think the 3 should be? I think it's more like a 1.6 shot. I'm worried about the effect of the barn change, but it's performance in a 165k stakes race last time out makes this a great bet at 1.8 in my book.
3 at 1.8.
What price do you think the 3 should be? I think it's more like a 1.6 shot. I'm worried about the effect of the barn change, but it's performance in a 165k stakes race last time out makes this a great bet at 1.8 in my book.
I think you got fantastic value on the 18/1 shot. That was well overpriced.
Personally I thought the 3 was around the right price at 13/1, but perhaps you saw something I didn't.
Personally I thought the 3 was around the right price at 13/1, but perhaps you saw something I didn't.
TUP R8
9 at 5.5. Has the pace advantage and should improve second time back off a long layoff. Don't think the distance suits the 8.
9 at 5.5. Has the pace advantage and should improve second time back off a long layoff. Don't think the distance suits the 8.
for me , 1.8 would be the lowest id bet on a horse if i really liked it, poeple bet lower but for me there are too many factors that could go wrong.
In this race id value it at evens , but id be looking to see what price #7 or #4 would be nearer the off and make a judgement then
In this race id value it at evens , but id be looking to see what price #7 or #4 would be nearer the off and make a judgement then
This field looks pretty weak, and judging by the 10's narrow defeats at Zia Park last two times out, I think it's overpriced at 2.3. You never know how it might take to the slop, but that's the only problem IMO.
Don't really take much notice of the course bookies either over in usa, you get favs smashed from even money into 1/5 shots and they still get beat
Cheers BSmith.
haha I still don't understand how they made it a 2/1 + shot!!
haha I still don't understand how they made it a 2/1 + shot!!
Post Your Reply
Please login to post a reply.
Wonder
Instance ID: 13539