I guess like many this week I will be throwing a few quid at something I don't know that much about. I am sure there will be plenty of flannel over the next couple of days from people who are probably guessing themselves.
Can anyone offer a little guidance to us once a year punters?
In general does Keeneland usually have any bias to front runners or hold-up horses?
It is stating the obvious that much of the form prior to the Breeders Cup is not at Keeneland. Which of the tracks are considered closest in make-up to the host track?
Is there a free form site that confirms if a horse has previous form on a sloppy track?
I am NO expert .. I am as baffled a most .. as to what will win any race .. but I like to go in with an opinion based on certain data (I use subscription based data but won't say what or with whom as I will NOT endorse anything that might encourage someone to gamble)
so Keeneland
from a novice point of view .. YOU HAVE NAILED IT RIGHT ON THE HEAD
much of the form is not from keeneland .. which provides an almost impossible task to identify with any real accuracy what a horse will bring from another track shipping in
be wary of anyone who says they will KNOW
in general all USA tracks favour run on type when the race is on TURF .. when it is on DIRT then either can aoccur based on the energy used by the leader or leaders in a race up and to enetering the lane .. I like leaders and on pace runners but they get run over enough for me to understand there is no one way
spend a couple of bucks and you can probably download the one form card from a few US sites (they all source esentially from the one site and these is easily googled - they all have different costings and sometimes the cheapest form guide is the best as a lot of info will not be necessary every race - like strike rates between trainer & jockey combos)
those that love keenlend the most .. I imagine .. would be the traders as they shuffle about buying and selling to turn a small profit on whatever horse wins
for a punter .. I avoid the real shorties (they usually win when I do lol) .. and look for some value either win & place or sometimes in a liquid pot the place only
each to his own
with gambling .. tread carefully .. its a minefield
but as always .. good fortunes
good questions DiffI am NO expert .. I am as baffled a most .. as to what will win any race .. but I like to go in with an opinion based on certain data (I use subscription based data but won't say what or with whom as I will NOT endorse anything tha
I wasn't expecting a mass of replies so I guess people either don't know themselves or are not prepared to share what they consider to be their edge.
Rest assured I will tread very carefully and stakes will be a minimum.
At least with American racing you are less likely to get jocks just sitting in front. Pace judgement on the front end is that much more critical.
Thanks, appreciate the honesty.I wasn't expecting a mass of replies so I guess people either don't know themselves or are not prepared to share what they consider to be their edge.Rest assured I will tread very carefully and stakes will be a minimum.
On teh Dirt at Kennland I'd rather be closing and I'd like to be doing so wide. I personally like the outside stalls in decent sized fields. But ultimately (and as it should be) class usually tells.
On teh Dirt at Kennland I'd rather be closing and I'd like to be doing so wide. I personally like the outside stalls in decent sized fields. But ultimately (and as it should be) class usually tells.
the dirt at keenland doesn't favour the outside but that is more telling on the shorter distances. over a mile+ the draw will even itself out and on the turf i think class tells more.
in terms of form though, ashas been said, just buy the racecard for $1 or $2 on brisnet or drf. it's a complete false economy to think it's not worth paying for, as you will gamble and win / lose more than that each race, so it pays for itself in no time
the dirt at keenland doesn't favour the outside but that is more telling on the shorter distances. over a mile+ the draw will even itself out and on the turf i think class tells more.in terms of form though, ashas been said, just buy the racecard for