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differentdrum
29 Oct 15 18:00
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Date Joined: 05 Oct 11
| Topic/replies: 21,099 | Blogger: differentdrum's blog
I guess like many this week I will be throwing a few quid at something I don't know that much about. I am sure there will be plenty of flannel over the next couple of days from people who are probably guessing themselves.

Can anyone offer a little guidance to us once a year punters?

In general does Keeneland usually have any bias to front runners or hold-up horses?

It is stating the obvious that much of the form prior to the Breeders Cup is not at Keeneland. Which of the tracks are considered closest in make-up to the host track?

Is there a free form site that confirms if a horse has previous form on a sloppy track?

Thanks in advance.

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Replies: 7
By:
Thebas
When: 30 Oct 15 00:14
good questions Diff

I am NO expert .. I am as baffled a most .. as to what will win any race .. but I like to go in with an opinion based on certain data (I use subscription based data but won't say what or with whom as I will NOT endorse anything that might encourage someone to gamble)

so Keeneland

from a novice point of view .. YOU HAVE NAILED IT RIGHT ON THE HEAD

much of the form is not from keeneland .. which provides an almost impossible task to identify with any real accuracy what a horse will bring from another track shipping in

be wary of anyone who says they will KNOW

in general all USA tracks favour run on type when the race is on TURF .. when it is on DIRT then either can aoccur based on the energy used by the leader or leaders in a race up and to enetering the lane .. I like leaders and on pace runners but they get run over enough for me to understand there is no one way

spend a couple of bucks and you can probably download the one form card from a few US sites (they all source esentially from the one site and these is easily googled - they all have different costings and sometimes the cheapest form guide is the best as a lot of info will not be necessary every race - like strike rates between trainer & jockey combos)

those that love keenlend the most .. I imagine .. would be the traders as they shuffle about buying and selling to turn a small profit on whatever horse wins

for a punter .. I avoid the real shorties (they usually win when I do lol) .. and look for some value either win & place or sometimes in a liquid pot the place only

each to his own

with gambling .. tread carefully .. its a minefield

but as always .. good fortunes
By:
differentdrum
When: 30 Oct 15 11:30
Thanks, appreciate the honesty.

I wasn't expecting a mass of replies so I guess people either don't know themselves or are not prepared to share what they consider to be their edge.

Rest assured I will tread very carefully and stakes will be a minimum.

At least with American racing you are less likely to get jocks just sitting in front. Pace judgement on the front end is that much more critical.
By:
Thebas
When: 30 Oct 15 12:31
no probs Diff .. like I said you could purchase online for about $2 US the One Day Card for Keeneland on its own if you wish
By:
Keefter
When: 30 Oct 15 19:01
On teh Dirt at Kennland I'd rather be closing and I'd like to be doing so wide. I personally like the outside stalls in decent sized fields. But ultimately (and as it should be) class usually tells.
By:
RiskyBusiness
When: 31 Oct 15 17:05
the dirt at keenland doesn't favour the outside but that is more telling on the shorter distances. over a mile+ the draw will even itself out and on the turf i think class tells more.

in terms of form though, ashas been said, just buy the racecard for $1 or $2 on brisnet or drf. it's a complete false economy to think it's not worth paying for, as you will gamble and win / lose more than that each race, so it pays for itself in no time
By:
breadnbutter
When: 02 Nov 15 18:50
Would like to say RIP to the victims and hope the truth is exposed asap
By:
breadnbutter
When: 02 Nov 15 18:54
The joys of using a mobile Blush
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