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RiskyBusiness
17 Jul 15 17:57
Joined:
Date Joined: 08 Mar 12
| Topic/replies: 6,293 | Blogger: RiskyBusiness's blog
evening all, good luck tonight
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Report slip5 July 17, 2015 11:00 PM BST
money is down on this 6 which is a plus
Report Rowan86 July 17, 2015 11:00 PM BST
I don't trust the 6 to wire the field, and think if the 4 can stay within striking distance, it can nail it on the stretch. Ahh, it's dropped below 3.0 now. I might pass.
Report Rowan86 July 17, 2015 11:01 PM BST
I've decided they're both value.

Bakced 4 at 2.8, and 6 at 3.4.
Report Rowan86 July 17, 2015 11:03 PM BST
Turns out the 3 had pace. :(
Report Rowan86 July 17, 2015 11:04 PM BST
Sorry for my poor tipping. When you've got a paceless field like that, a donkey can end up winning. I'll be back for race 2. I'll try and make amends!
Report slip5 July 17, 2015 11:05 PM BST
no worries mate it a opinions game really nothing is a cert in horse racing
Report Rowan86 July 17, 2015 11:05 PM BST
Risky. Hopefully when I see the advert on SSN, that'll make more sense! haha
Report slip5 July 17, 2015 11:07 PM BST
ten crowns short price fav for its first run
Report HonkyJoe July 17, 2015 11:09 PM BST
Poor first-time win stats for that LAD horse
Report HonkyJoe July 17, 2015 11:11 PM BST
for the horse's sire, I mean
Report slip5 July 17, 2015 11:19 PM BST
4 loos decent bet race 2 penn
Report slip5 July 17, 2015 11:19 PM BST
looks
Report Rowan86 July 17, 2015 11:19 PM BST
PEN R2

6 at 9.0. Backing this to improve second time back off the layoff.
Report Rowan86 July 17, 2015 11:22 PM BST
Slip. The 4 has some good back-form but it's disappointing performance last time out means I can pass on it at sub 4.0. There's a chance it could have things easy if it gets a soft early lead with its pace, but 6 and 8 should be able to match it for pace.
Report slip5 July 17, 2015 11:28 PM BST
the 6 is front running
Report Rowan86 July 17, 2015 11:29 PM BST
LAD R6

4 at 9.0. Think this can cope with the step up in class.
Report slip5 July 17, 2015 11:29 PM BST
the 4 looks danger
Report slip5 July 17, 2015 11:30 PM BST
4 is easy winner
Report slip5 July 17, 2015 11:30 PM BST
blinkers done the job
Report Rowan86 July 17, 2015 11:30 PM BST
Hope I didn't deter you from backing the 4. It was just very disappointing last time out.
Report slip5 July 17, 2015 11:31 PM BST
no I back it
Report slip5 July 17, 2015 11:33 PM BST
going for the 9 at lad race 6 been in decent form this horse I expect it to pounce late
Report slip5 July 17, 2015 11:35 PM BST
4 is tracking pace
Report slip5 July 17, 2015 11:36 PM BST
hector really gave the 9 to much to do
Report HonkyJoe July 17, 2015 11:36 PM BST
Nicely done Rowan!!
Report slip5 July 17, 2015 11:37 PM BST
good winner rowan
Report HonkyJoe July 17, 2015 11:37 PM BST
I know you had already upgraded it to a good night, but are you going to upgrade it again now!?  Grin
Report slip5 July 17, 2015 11:38 PM BST
rowan you must be high as a kite backing these outsiders winners
Report HonkyJoe July 17, 2015 11:40 PM BST
I think he's getting almost used to it now, Slip!
Report slip5 July 17, 2015 11:40 PM BST
evang race 1 this 5 looks a terrific bet I expect jockey to make all no other tactics needed
Report Rowan86 July 17, 2015 11:41 PM BST
hahahaah yes, I think I need to upgrade the quality of this night. Thanks Slip / Honky.

Honky. I'm so sorry. I forgot it was you! Nice to see you on here tonight. Will you be on much longer do you think>?
Report HonkyJoe July 17, 2015 11:42 PM BST
I'll have a small go on this 1 to place.  Only really doing very casual bets at this stage!
Report slip5 July 17, 2015 11:42 PM BST
5 in trouble already
Report slip5 July 17, 2015 11:43 PM BST
5 was out paced  was never going to win
Report HonkyJoe July 17, 2015 11:44 PM BST
Real crapshoot those races. So many of the horses can improve in a flash.
Report slip5 July 17, 2015 11:44 PM BST
that was a 1st time starter that 8 it won with a lot in hand
Report HonkyJoe July 17, 2015 11:46 PM BST
I'd looked at the 1st time starters and decided none of them were quite good enough. But that one found a little extra that wasn't there on paper.  Still, got the place, so I'm content.....
Report slip5 July 17, 2015 11:47 PM BST
got a 2/5 shot at penn this 7 horse
Report slip5 July 17, 2015 11:49 PM BST
think we can get this 7 beat at penn, 2 and 8 win bets for me
Report HonkyJoe July 17, 2015 11:50 PM BST
I'm such a cheapskate. My DRF subscription ran out on Tuesday night, but you can download in advance the cards and Formulator files for the next three or four days, and you can then draw out your subscription for a few more days!!    But the friday Penn cards weren't available then, so I don't have anything at all for Penn!!  Sad   Looks like I'm relying on you guys!!
Report slip5 July 17, 2015 11:51 PM BST
someone put the mortgage on this 7 horse at penn race track it now a 1/9 shot Laugh
Report Rowan86 July 17, 2015 11:52 PM BST
PEN R3

If 7 is fit it will be tough to beat,but I do not have faith in its fitness.

5 at 13.5. on the class drop looks like it could have some value.

I'll do my best Honky!
Report slip5 July 17, 2015 11:55 PM BST
3 given easy lead
Report HonkyJoe July 17, 2015 11:57 PM BST
Guess he was fit!
Report Rowan86 July 17, 2015 11:57 PM BST
LAD R7

2 at 34.0.

6 at 13.5.

Going for the two newcomers.
Report HonkyJoe July 17, 2015 11:58 PM BST
Hearing 'Little Orphan Annie' just put me in mind of an episode of Peter Kay's Car Share.  I'm not really taking this seriously enough!!
Report Rowan86 July 18, 2015 12:00 AM BST
Yep! Guess he was fit. Still couldn't justify the price though.
Report slip5 July 18, 2015 12:01 AM BST
5 given easy lead looks a jockeys race
Report HonkyJoe July 18, 2015 12:02 AM BST
Geez Rowan. you were almost brilliant there!!  Laugh
Report slip5 July 18, 2015 12:02 AM BST
pathetic effort from jockey on the 6 Laugh
Report slip5 July 18, 2015 12:03 AM BST
never wanted to pass that fav did he
Report HonkyJoe July 18, 2015 12:04 AM BST
He was getting a taste for it in the last few paces!!
Report slip5 July 18, 2015 12:04 AM BST
stewards Surprised
Report HonkyJoe July 18, 2015 12:04 AM BST
Ooh. Might be a chance here....
Report Rowan86 July 18, 2015 12:04 AM BST
EVD

6 at 11.50. Think this might suit the cut-back in trip.
Report slip5 July 18, 2015 12:04 AM BST
still hope rowan
Report HonkyJoe July 18, 2015 12:05 AM BST
He does actually force him over several times. And it was very close......
Report Rowan86 July 18, 2015 12:05 AM BST
COME OOOOOOON ! Pleeeeaaasseeee
Report HonkyJoe July 18, 2015 12:05 AM BST
Forum's behind you.....
Report Rowan86 July 18, 2015 12:06 AM BST
I'm liking your optimism Honky!
Report slip5 July 18, 2015 12:06 AM BST
jockey on the 6 was not very animated on the 6 at the ending of that race maybe he knows there was major interference
Report HonkyJoe July 18, 2015 12:06 AM BST
Oh rats!!
Report slip5 July 18, 2015 12:07 AM BST
no change
Report Rowan86 July 18, 2015 12:07 AM BST
Damn. I really thought I was in with a chance there!
Report HonkyJoe July 18, 2015 12:08 AM BST
I think the US stewards have got a lot less tough of late.   Would also be interesting to see if the winner had kept it had he been the 13/1 shot denying the 1/5 fave...
Report Rowan86 July 18, 2015 12:08 AM BST
I liked your thinking Slip! That gave me hope. Thanks for the support. So close. Still think it's debatable whether it should have stood. Definite interference. Just depends how serious you deem it.
Report HonkyJoe July 18, 2015 12:10 AM BST
The horse was definitely intimidated and put off his stride slightly by the fave. In my opinion, that could well have cost the 6 the victory. That would
definitely have been taken down in France!!
Report Rowan86 July 18, 2015 12:10 AM BST
Yes! Very good point Honky. Interesting also how you think the US stewards have softened lately. I have always detected distinct inconsistency in decisions.
Report HonkyJoe July 18, 2015 12:12 AM BST
Well yes there is inconsistency. Our stewards are the only ones **** consistent - here a horse can jump on the backs of the field and use them as a xylophone for four furlongs, and it'll still be no more than a 50/50 as to whether the horse gets chucked out..

They did used to throw out horses for any sort of interference in the US, though.
Report Rowan86 July 18, 2015 12:14 AM BST
I'm glad you agree the decision was very dubious. I mean, to be honest, if that's not a disqualification, why not do stuff like that deliberately? If you're in a battle on the stretch and you think you're going to lose, just interfere with your rival like that and give yourself a better chance! haha
Report HonkyJoe July 18, 2015 12:14 AM BST
I missed the CT race while all that was going on. (Not that it made any difference. I liked the 6 but he was unbackable at the price.)

How come BF aren't carrying the CT feed?
Report slip5 July 18, 2015 12:15 AM BST
uk racing they never get thrown out cause most bookies offer 1st past the post
Report slip5 July 18, 2015 12:15 AM BST
they would have to pay out twice
Report HonkyJoe July 18, 2015 12:16 AM BST
They use the whip in such extreme ways in the US. And yet the one thing the whip is really supposed to be used for - stopping your horse from veering into a rival's path like that - is apparently an irrelevance.  Stupid really.
Report Rowan86 July 18, 2015 12:16 AM BST
PEN

4 at 9.6. I really think this it fit on return from a long layoff. Won't be surprised if it's an absolute donk, but at 9.6, I'm prepared to take the chance.
Report HonkyJoe July 18, 2015 12:17 AM BST
Slip, UK bookies don't have to do that. They'd change their rules very quickly if stewards started throwing out more winners.
Report Rowan86 July 18, 2015 12:19 AM BST
Backed 4 again at 11.0.
Report slip5 July 18, 2015 12:22 AM BST
4 going to come late
Report Rowan86 July 18, 2015 12:25 AM BST
Not sure why betfair aren't doing the CT feed. Disappointed about that.

That's interesting about the sole purpose of the whip. I didn't know that. Amazing how differently it's actually used.

That made me laugh the xylophone comment you made. That's probably true actually. The inconsistency is crazy.
Report Rowan86 July 18, 2015 12:28 AM BST
CT  R2

2 at 2.7. Think the draw makes it favourite.
Report Rowan86 July 18, 2015 12:31 AM BST
EVD

4 at 10.0+
Report RothmanMike July 18, 2015 12:31 AM BST
Evening all.
Another fine result @ Penn.
1st 2 in the betting finish 1-2.
Nothing changes - thankfully Plain
Report HonkyJoe July 18, 2015 12:37 AM BST
Wow. That's quite a longshot at CT!
Report Rowan86 July 18, 2015 12:38 AM BST
Well done Rothman! That's awesome.
Report HonkyJoe July 18, 2015 12:38 AM BST
572 at CT
Report HonkyJoe July 18, 2015 12:39 AM BST
That's the finishing order, by the way. Not the odds of the winner!!   (Even Rowan couldn't catch a 572/1 shot!!)
Report Rowan86 July 18, 2015 12:43 AM BST
hahaha what odds was it?
Report HonkyJoe July 18, 2015 12:44 AM BST
15/1 or something.  Not bad in a race dominated by two shorties. (I guess if the shorties had lost, the winner was likely to be priced up at something like that, but...)
Report Rowan86 July 18, 2015 12:46 AM BST
PEN

2 at 5.0+. Should suit cutback in trip and return to dirt.

6 at 5.0+. Don't know what was wrong with it last time out, but think it will be ready today.
Report Rowan86 July 18, 2015 1:00 AM BST
EVD

2 at 15.0. Big bet.
Report HonkyJoe July 18, 2015 1:00 AM BST
The 7 at EVD is 1/2, which seems a little short. The horse is very good at 6f, but 5.5f might just be a tiny bit too short for him.
Report HonkyJoe July 18, 2015 1:04 AM BST
The 2's a good shout at the odds. 18% FTS win rate, and good jock.   I quite like the 6 as well, at a big price.
Report HonkyJoe July 18, 2015 1:05 AM BST
Mind you, at 2.04, I might just try and lay the fave...
Report Rowan86 July 18, 2015 1:05 AM BST
I think evens is about the right price for the 7. Distance could be a slight issue. I definitely think it's a worthy favourite on Beyer ratings, but in terms of actually winning races, it's not convincing enough.
Report HonkyJoe July 18, 2015 1:08 AM BST
Looks like you were right Rowan.
Report Rowan86 July 18, 2015 1:12 AM BST
PEN

5 at 9.6.

4 might hack up but class drop looks dodgy. I'd rather back dodgy class dropper 5 at 9.6.
Report Rowan86 July 18, 2015 1:13 AM BST
It wasn't convincing enough for me at 2.04 on paper.
Report HonkyJoe July 18, 2015 1:15 AM BST
I think you were right that evens was about right for it.
Report HonkyJoe July 18, 2015 1:20 AM BST
4 wins comfortably.

Okay, I think I'm off to look through the EMD card.  Good luck Rowan.
Report Rowan86 July 18, 2015 1:37 AM BST
Ahh, I might see you at EMD!
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