U.S. Horse Racing
Welcome to Live View – Take the tour to learn more
Start Tour
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
any help or links appreciated.
Show More
2 x Wide drawn Breeders Cup Mile Winners;3 Year olds and up.
Drawn 13 Six Perfections
Drawn 11 Goldikova
I Don't think I would Bet a 2 Year old to Win Drawn 11 or Higher.
Drawn 13 Six Perfections
Drawn 11 Goldikova
I Don't think I would Bet a 2 Year old to Win Drawn 11 or Higher.
Santa Anita Dirt Track Trends
Aside from the different surfaces and bias, the next strategy you'll want to use to get ahead of the betting public will hinge on horses' running styles.
On Santa Anita's main track, we usually look for an emphasis for early speed in sprints, especially at the two most popular sprint distances of 6 furlongs and 6 1/2 furlongs.
At Santa Anita, roughly 38 percent of the 6 furlong races can be expected to be won in wire-to-wire fashion, and at 6 1/2 furlongs, 32 percent of the races can be expected to be won wire-to-wire. At 7 furlongs, that win percentage for wire-to-wire front-runners jumps back up to roughly 38 percent.
The average beaten lengths at the first call in races at these sprint distances is about 2.08 lengths behind at the quarter-mile mark. In other words, horses definitely didn't want to be too far back early in Santa Anita main track sprints. This is based on the stat that 93 percent of the dirt sprint winners at Santa Anita race within 5.00 lengths of the lead at the first call (quarter mile). Therefore, throughout the Santa Anita meet, expect it to be difficult for a horse to win from very far back in the pack. Clearly it helps immensely for a horse to have at least tactical speed if it wants to win with any regularity in Santa Anita main track sprints.
In Santa Anita dirt track routes, roughly 23 percent of the dirt route races are won wire-to-wire, and 66 percent are won by horses classified either as early speed horses or pace pressers.
If these numbers are too general for you, perhaps you should instead look at the results of past Breeders' Cup races specifically for your Breeders' Cup winning dirt track profile. This is particularly true in the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile, which, in its short history, has been dominated by late runners who can sit off a predictably blazing fast pace and rally past the front-runners in the stretch.
Where post positions are concerned, take a look at the statistics for the current meet once the meet reaches the end of October/beginning of November to decipher if any post position trends have developed at the specific distances of the Breeders' Cup races. Based on past figures, I would expect the rail and the inside posts (1-3) to be the preferred spots in dirt sprints. Route races usually tend to not show much bias in terms of post positions at Santa Anita until you get to the far outside posts, which can occasionally be a disadvantage outside post 8 or 9 in two-turn races.
Aside from the different surfaces and bias, the next strategy you'll want to use to get ahead of the betting public will hinge on horses' running styles.
On Santa Anita's main track, we usually look for an emphasis for early speed in sprints, especially at the two most popular sprint distances of 6 furlongs and 6 1/2 furlongs.
At Santa Anita, roughly 38 percent of the 6 furlong races can be expected to be won in wire-to-wire fashion, and at 6 1/2 furlongs, 32 percent of the races can be expected to be won wire-to-wire. At 7 furlongs, that win percentage for wire-to-wire front-runners jumps back up to roughly 38 percent.
The average beaten lengths at the first call in races at these sprint distances is about 2.08 lengths behind at the quarter-mile mark. In other words, horses definitely didn't want to be too far back early in Santa Anita main track sprints. This is based on the stat that 93 percent of the dirt sprint winners at Santa Anita race within 5.00 lengths of the lead at the first call (quarter mile). Therefore, throughout the Santa Anita meet, expect it to be difficult for a horse to win from very far back in the pack. Clearly it helps immensely for a horse to have at least tactical speed if it wants to win with any regularity in Santa Anita main track sprints.
In Santa Anita dirt track routes, roughly 23 percent of the dirt route races are won wire-to-wire, and 66 percent are won by horses classified either as early speed horses or pace pressers.
If these numbers are too general for you, perhaps you should instead look at the results of past Breeders' Cup races specifically for your Breeders' Cup winning dirt track profile. This is particularly true in the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile, which, in its short history, has been dominated by late runners who can sit off a predictably blazing fast pace and rally past the front-runners in the stretch.
Where post positions are concerned, take a look at the statistics for the current meet once the meet reaches the end of October/beginning of November to decipher if any post position trends have developed at the specific distances of the Breeders' Cup races. Based on past figures, I would expect the rail and the inside posts (1-3) to be the preferred spots in dirt sprints. Route races usually tend to not show much bias in terms of post positions at Santa Anita until you get to the far outside posts, which can occasionally be a disadvantage outside post 8 or 9 in two-turn races.
Santa Anita Turf Racing
With all of this talk of synthetic racing and dirt races, at least one element of Breeders' Cup racing at Santa Anita that will not be impacted (thank goodness) will be turf racing, and that is certainly good news.
Post positions are very important on the Santa Anita turf course, because the course is smaller and the turns are tighter than at any other Breeders' Cup venue. The other important aspect about Santa Anita's grass course is its unique downhill turf course, which will play a major role in not only the Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint, but also in the long distance turf races - the Breeders' Cup Turf and Filly & Mare Turf - because both of those races will begin up the hill before the field races downhill, crosses the dirt track, and then makes one full circuit around the oval to the finish.
Because of the unique aspect of the Santa Anita grass course, the handicapping preference should be given to local "horses for the course"as well as European horses that will largely be unfazed by any kind of quirky North American turf course. Horses for the course will be particularly enticing to bet in the Turf Sprint, so watch the entries on Breeders' Cup Day for horses that have already won down the hill on turf at Santa Anita.
Getting back to post positions, they are of utmost importance at Santa Anita in both routes and sprints. Santa Anita turf sprints feature the only right turn in North American racing, and as a matter of fact, the first turn in the race is not a left turn, but a right turn. This essentially flip flops the gate, making the outside posts basically the inside posts, and vice versa. Outside posts have long been considered an advantage in Santa Anita turf sprints, while conversely, the inside posts - particularly posts 1, 2, 3 - are considered a bad disadvantage. A horse will need to be much, much the best in order to win the Breeders' Cup turf sprint from an inside post.
In Santa Anita turf routes, inside posts are good, but middle posts are just fine as well, all the way on out to posts 8 or 9. However, the far outside posts, particularly posts outside post 9, and major disadvantages at most distances on the Santa Anita grass. This impacts a lot of races, including the Turf, the Mile, the Filly & Mare Turf, the Juvenile Turf, and the Juvenile Filly Turf. The worst races for outside posts will definitely be the Mile and the two Breeders' Cup turf races for Juveniles.
Again, just like the inside-drawn horses in the Turf Sprint, a horse will need to be much the best in the race in order to win the Mile, the Juvenile Turf, or the Juvenile Filly Turf from a post position 9 or wider. In those races, give favoritism to the horses from inside and middle post positions.
The Breeders' Cup is only a few weeks away, and it is never too early to start looking and trends and angles to help you get ready to handicap the two biggest days of the year in Thoroughbred racing. I recommend spending as much time as possible in the coming weeks watching and wagering on the races from Santa Anita, and the remaining prep races, in order to get the feel for the big event. If you do this, you will have a great advantage over your fellow horseplayers on November 2-3. Best of luck, and enjoy racing from Santa Anita!
With all of this talk of synthetic racing and dirt races, at least one element of Breeders' Cup racing at Santa Anita that will not be impacted (thank goodness) will be turf racing, and that is certainly good news.
Post positions are very important on the Santa Anita turf course, because the course is smaller and the turns are tighter than at any other Breeders' Cup venue. The other important aspect about Santa Anita's grass course is its unique downhill turf course, which will play a major role in not only the Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint, but also in the long distance turf races - the Breeders' Cup Turf and Filly & Mare Turf - because both of those races will begin up the hill before the field races downhill, crosses the dirt track, and then makes one full circuit around the oval to the finish.
Because of the unique aspect of the Santa Anita grass course, the handicapping preference should be given to local "horses for the course"as well as European horses that will largely be unfazed by any kind of quirky North American turf course. Horses for the course will be particularly enticing to bet in the Turf Sprint, so watch the entries on Breeders' Cup Day for horses that have already won down the hill on turf at Santa Anita.
Getting back to post positions, they are of utmost importance at Santa Anita in both routes and sprints. Santa Anita turf sprints feature the only right turn in North American racing, and as a matter of fact, the first turn in the race is not a left turn, but a right turn. This essentially flip flops the gate, making the outside posts basically the inside posts, and vice versa. Outside posts have long been considered an advantage in Santa Anita turf sprints, while conversely, the inside posts - particularly posts 1, 2, 3 - are considered a bad disadvantage. A horse will need to be much, much the best in order to win the Breeders' Cup turf sprint from an inside post.
In Santa Anita turf routes, inside posts are good, but middle posts are just fine as well, all the way on out to posts 8 or 9. However, the far outside posts, particularly posts outside post 9, and major disadvantages at most distances on the Santa Anita grass. This impacts a lot of races, including the Turf, the Mile, the Filly & Mare Turf, the Juvenile Turf, and the Juvenile Filly Turf. The worst races for outside posts will definitely be the Mile and the two Breeders' Cup turf races for Juveniles.
Again, just like the inside-drawn horses in the Turf Sprint, a horse will need to be much the best in the race in order to win the Mile, the Juvenile Turf, or the Juvenile Filly Turf from a post position 9 or wider. In those races, give favoritism to the horses from inside and middle post positions.
The Breeders' Cup is only a few weeks away, and it is never too early to start looking and trends and angles to help you get ready to handicap the two biggest days of the year in Thoroughbred racing. I recommend spending as much time as possible in the coming weeks watching and wagering on the races from Santa Anita, and the remaining prep races, in order to get the feel for the big event. If you do this, you will have a great advantage over your fellow horseplayers on November 2-3. Best of luck, and enjoy racing from Santa Anita!
Post Your Reply
Please login to post a reply.
Wonder
Instance ID: 13539