Met Mile

On Monday night live on ATR we will treated to the Metropolitan Mile, one of the best dirt mile races throughout the whole calendar year. Great horses such as Ghostzapper have won this prestigious race and the field for tomorrow night holds some elite performers bringing to the plate a plethora of Grade 1 victories. The US morning line favourite will be Caleb's Posse a tremendous deep closer who indeed is one of my favourite horses in training however at odds of 8/5 is he really a play or is there far better value to be found with a bit of handicapping??

Below are listed the runners and a brief resume :-

1) To Honor and Serve - looked a Kentucky Derby player last year but performed below par in the early seaon and never made the race. Refound his form however in a New York allowance race at  9 furlongs late in the year before running a big race in the Grade 2 Pennsylvania Derby when mullering the Belmont winner Ruler On Ice. Ran a creditable 7th in the Breeders Cup Classic when 2nd with 1 furlong left and not quite getting home. He however went on to win the Cigar Mile at Aqueduct and then reappeared this year in the Grade 3 Westchester winning under a hand ride in a fast time beating the useful Boys At Tosconova. Rail draw is not ideal but with Shackleford inside should be able to angle out and get a nice stalking trip. At morning line odds of 3/1 and a likely nice sit behind the speed of Shackleford and Saginaw he is tremendous value and my idea of the winner at a good price

2) Shackleford :- last years Preakness winner has banged his head with pretty much every top horse in the US and after a late season dip in form he ran a very creditable 3rd in the Breeders Cup Mile when forcing very very fast fractions. Finally got his head in front again since the Preakness in the 7 furlong Grade 2 Churchill Downs when defeating the Breeders Cup Sprint winner in a fierce stretch battle on the Kentucky Derby undercard. In my opinion he is a 7 furlong - miler and a bold showing is predicted however if a protracted speed duel with Saginaw occurs then he may be softened up. Very tough to make all in elite dirt mile races especially in such a deep field so may run a place at best.

3) Caleb's Posse :- a stone cold closer who has a frightening late kick and absolutely strolled home in the Breeders Cup dirt mile. He hasn't won this year but has run neck seconds in both races at 6 and 1/2 and 7 furlongs when not getting the fast fractions he loves. A return to the mile and a likely good pace makes him a huge player so we can guarantee pink silks flashing home late down the centre of the track. My concern however is that he won't get the 44 and 4/5 half mile he got at the Breeders Cup and even if the pace softens ip that the big To Honor and Serve will be in a better position to take the spoils. Morning line odds of 8/5 not so appealing as the 8/1 available at the Breeders Cup!!

4) Saginaw :- a winner of his last 5 races after being claimed for $30,000. He won a New York stake last time out and posted a very fast speed figure which would put him right in the mix. This is a huge step up however and with a speed duel with Shackleford very likely then i think he could well be out of his depth.

5) Caixa Electronica :- a winner of the Grade 2 Charles Town Classic  in his most recent race and third in the Met mile last year he is a solid performer but in this hot race he could be in a little bit over his head!!

6) Jackson Bend :- another closer who has run some brilliant races at 7 furlongs and a mile. Went off as favourite in the Breeders Cup Sprint but was outrun in that event and rallied late for a respectable third. This year he beat Caleb's Posse by a neck in the 7 furlong Grade 1 Carter however he got first run on that foe and the extra furlong may not be quite in his favour. Nevertheless still a major player and shouldn't be underestimated.

Prediction :-

In what is a fascinating and high quality renewal i have to side with to Honor and Serve. He should get a nice stalking trip behind the speed and his hand ride win in the Westchester was visually very impressive and he will come on a bundle for that prep race. For the places is think Caleb's Posse will come with another late rattle but not quite get up and Jackson Bend will round out 3rd with Shackleford hanging on to take 4th. Should be a brilliant race!!