U.S. Horse Racing
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jas1968 Joined: 24 Jul 02
Replies: 8659 02 Mar 11 21:29
Occur it most weeks Mr Q , avoidance is impossible as far as I can see . opened a few different accounts up in relatives names a couple of years back but they cottoned on and I had to pay them 7 grand back to get the account unsuspended. I still find my figures similar to them of pre PC days only difference is I'm 20 % worse off and the cost of living is 20 % more The real annoying thing is when heavy losing week is then followed by a winning week but still has the charge .
Still beats digging ditches out though !!
How did Betfair "cotton on" ????
And BTW, there is a WAY to get around PC's. There is no punter alive that can long term overcome an additional 20% surcharge (on top of all the other commissions and take-outs) and survive in this game. And those who think it might be possible, it's not that they don't understand horseracing, it's that they don't understand basic maths and probability theory.
Replies: 8659 02 Mar 11 21:29
Occur it most weeks Mr Q , avoidance is impossible as far as I can see . opened a few different accounts up in relatives names a couple of years back but they cottoned on and I had to pay them 7 grand back to get the account unsuspended. I still find my figures similar to them of pre PC days only difference is I'm 20 % worse off and the cost of living is 20 % more The real annoying thing is when heavy losing week is then followed by a winning week but still has the charge .
Still beats digging ditches out though !!
How did Betfair "cotton on" ????
And BTW, there is a WAY to get around PC's. There is no punter alive that can long term overcome an additional 20% surcharge (on top of all the other commissions and take-outs) and survive in this game. And those who think it might be possible, it's not that they don't understand horseracing, it's that they don't understand basic maths and probability theory.
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I'm no I.T. expert but I imagine my I.P. address being the same on all the accounts gave the game away .
I've been here 10 yrs now and 80 % of what I win is plenty enough to fund my lifestyle although human greed instinctively makes me want the 97 % I used to get. |
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jas, thanks for responding.
I never realized circumstantial evidence proves someone guilty on here, or trades originating from different accounts but from the same IP is illegal or in violation of the rules. Does Betfair have a hidden camera in out homes watching who actually originates the trades that I don't know about? Hmmmmm..... I can only laugh when I see posts on here like "some clueless mug layed that odds-on runner for 99/1" or "some clueless mug backed that 50/1 at 1.02". Whoever is behind those "trades" is not the clueless mug, the poster who assumes that was the work of a clueless mug is the real mug. These are nothing more than money transfers from "overweight" accounts into "underweight" accounts. It's done virtually every day, with accounts from the same IP address (one of my accounts is under my wife's name, same last name, same address, and originating from the same computer) and with impunity because it is perfectly within the trading rules and terms & conditions. THERE'S NOT A DAMN THING THEY CAN DO ABOUT IT. Unless of course Betfair was prepared to indiscriminately suspend accounts just because the trades originated from the same IP address. I doubt that very much. The suspect the Regulators would be terribly interested in that.If you're going to survive in this game you have to know who the real enemy is. I'll repeat what I said in my original post, there's no punter alive that can overcome a 20% surcharge long term on a sustained basis and survive. It has nothing to do with one's handicapping ability or knowledge, it has everything to do with simple maths and how an efficient market works. Good luck with your trades nonetheless and again thanks for responding. |
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I think premium charge was designed to catch bot users, traders and insiders. When it catches a straight gambler it's really unfortunate and IMO unfair.
However, since only those in profit pay it by definition those who pay it can survive. For a horse racing punter it roughly equates to betting at tote at around 12% takeout by my calculations. |
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ante, your analysis misses two huge points.
First, those in profit ARE NOT ALWAYS in profit. Which means survival depends on overcoming the losing streaks with profits that are now subject to a 20% surcharge. Unless you are Jesus turning water into wine, it can't be done. And second, the take-outs on t0te are ALREADY built in on exchange prices. That's the fallacy on here, that commission on the average punter would be somewhere between 3-5% but at least we avoid the 18-20% take-out that t0te punters face. Nonsense...... |
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Those weeks when you lose create a buffer for paying PC when you win, so if you are a long term winner then losing and winning streaks shouldn't affect you (technically, maybe not psychologically). However if you are not a long term winner and you just pay it as a result of a lucky streak then yes, it's doubly unfortunate.
Yes, takeout is already built in the price on tote and unless the price on BF is at least 15% better (than on tote) a PC payer is better off playing that horse on tote. However, knowing the price on tote is difficult since prices change after the off. BF has an advantage of locking your price, tote has an advantage of not having to drip-feed your bets. |
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The best UK in-running track players can (and do) make a very, very good living despite the PC. This is also despite the fact that they also have to contend with course fees, an expensive seat in a box, etc.
I would imagine the 20% levy puts a squeeze on the majority of BF winners, but they still keep coming back for more! |
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I agree with your comment on the nuances of betting through t0te (odds dropping just after the off, etc). But if you seem to agree that t0te take-out is built-in prices on here, and by your calculation the PC amounts to an additional 12% take-out, what strike rate must a punter have and at what average price to show a profit?
You can't run away from the math, it's that simple. |
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By my calculations PC equates to roughly 12% commission per bet instead of 4.3% or whatever commission a punter is.
Sometimes the price on BF is similar to the price on tote but sometimes you get 4.40 on a horse that pays $5.60 on tote, or 3.53 on an even money shot ($4.00). Those are actual examples of my last 2 winning bets. In those cases it's better to play on BF even if you are a PC payer. |
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Just to clarify that 12% commision is my calculation that I made when I was close to PC teritory. Maybe it's different for differnt people but it should be close.
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I don't doubt they are actual examples but the problem is your sample is TOO SMALL.
The perennial argument that "prices are better on BF therefore a punter is better off" only holds true if you are backing ONLY. Since I suspect most punters who know what they are doing on an exchange have a balanced approach to their betting (ie, both backing and laying), this very same argument means that someone laying is forced to give higher odds on the exchange which more than negates the "prices are better" argument. You haven't answer my original question. If we are all "churning" money on here that involves someone at some point, whether is the host track or Betfair, keeping over 30% of the money circulated, what strike rate and at what average price must a punter have to beat this insane reduction? |
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if somebody pays the charge most weeks as a claimes it is a strong possibility that he never has a losing week only a less successful week. therefore to continue to make the same profit as pre pc, the risk is negligable
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I stop reading at "he never has a losing week".
Only two type of punters never have a losing week, those who don't exist and liars. |
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if you understand the dynamics of the charge then somebody that claims they nearly always pay it weekly, then this person has an edge which makes a losing week unlikely if not nearly impossible
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I don't pay PC so a PC payer must have much better strike rate than me. Since they have a much better strike rate they can absorb the damage of the PC. I bet they don't like it but they can survive it.
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whatever......
post again when you come off your high, may be I'll be better able to understand the nonsense you are posting |
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Regarding laying, it would be interensting to know what is the ratio of backing/laying for PC payers. I would asume that ratio would be very high (in favor of backing) but that's just my guess.
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my last post was not aimed at you ante. In fact, I actually enjoyed our exchange.
Good luck trading. |
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* for straight betting PC payers
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If you were simply trading you would rarely have a losing week.
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However you would be paying premium charge every week.
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Wow, Bluenose, you found the key to the mint. Simply trade and rarely have a losing week. What a concept, I wish I had clued in earlier.
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I have a serious question for you now mr canadian as i know you are an expert on most subjects.
If i had an 8ft satellite dish at my holiday home in cyprus and wanted to watch the racing direct from america how big a pole would i need? |
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lets puts some figures in:
20 bets a day, 140 a week, 3/4 weeks on pc can you assume this person will never have a losing week in there life? |
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As big as you could fit up your.......
The concept of bouncing signals off of other satellites seems to be beyond your comprehension. I thought you blocked me BTW as you have already posted. Are you always lying on this forum? |
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I did but that picture still gets displayed so i may as well keep you on for comedy value.
The concept of a liar/fantasist is not beyond my comprehension. Unless of course you have your own satellite up there to bounce it off just for you that is. BTW your pole would need to be 4000 miles high and while your guy was carrying your 8ft dish up your 4000 mile high pole on his 4000 mile ladder did he bend it just a little so that the footprint was visible? |
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I'm undecided if you are worse at punting or technical issues. This is a tough one.
I'll let you know when I decide. |
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Technical issues im probably not the smartest. However i do know the earth is round.
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Wow, those trading never lose and the earth is round !!!!
Do you have any other tidbits of wisdom that you can share? We are privileged to have you on here. |
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Only this one.
Those that have holiday homes in Cyprus and watch american racing on satellites that are aimed at North America are full of sh1t. Hope this helps. |
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Only one thing for you....
Only in your dreams you can afford a holiday home in Cyprus but if by some miracle you did..... You'd find out that watching US racing on satellite that you though impossible is a breeze. I've decided by the way, it's your punting. I hope this helps. |
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99% of my business is done trading in-running and my current total percentage charge is 42% and i still make a good living from betfair.I use an exchange shop and do the odd day at the track.
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Well done beard, who would have thunk that loading up on 1.01 shots once they get clear by 5 would earn someone a living ?!?!?
eeer wait though......this means that US racing without IR and your fast pictures is out of reach for you.... too bad, I feel for you..... |
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Only a layer canadian and only try to play mid-race,Race reading is the name of the game-I lay plenty of winners,thats why I am at 42% charges,but overall I make a good living.Incidently if pictures were all live I fancy getting double what I get already.
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Great beard, I'm in awe, I truly am.....
I have now idea by what you mean by "reading is the name of the game" but then again I'm utterly clueless so why should I? One thing though.....define "good living". |
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4 years ago I won 500k over a 2year period-I now do between 4 and 5 days a week-had severe problems with one of my eyes 18 months ago so cut down a fair bit.Moved up to Northumberland 3 years ago for a better lifestyle.Made about 80k last year which will do me,No mortgage to pay just everyday living.
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Excellent, sorry to hear about your eye.
80K quid a year is nothing to sneeze at but it may just fall short of "good living" by my standards it's a matter of perspective I guess enjoyed chatting with you |
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thecanadian 03 Mar 11 22:11
80K........ may just fall short of "good living" by my standards in case you haven't heard of thecomedian, he is a "BIG SCORE KINDA PUNTER" (he is on 3.9%) A REAL LIFE BIG SCORE KINDA PUNTER (who claims to be on the premium charge, although he isn't) |
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thecanadian
03 Mar 11 21:52 Joined: 26 Jan 05 | Topic/replies: 3,376 | Blogger: thecanadian's blog Great beard you can't make this stuff up!! next, he'll be asking for coiffing tips  |
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altered P/L statement coming up.....4...3....2....1....
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