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31 Jul 10
19:49
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Date Joined:
08 Apr 06
trappe shot at 4-1 with laddies for haskell is an amazing bet...here's why
1. will go off favored in american tote at odds of 8-5 to 2-1, making 4-1 a generous overlay
2. simply faster than mutts who competed in triple crown races based on beyers, his double top is faster than others have ever run
3. has race over track and that victory was despite a bit of trouble and racing against bias on dead rail
4. plots to get a perfect trip from his outside draw...lots of time before 1st turn to secure a position either on or just off of the pace
5. gets a weight break from super saver and lookin at lucky
my bets are in, i actually was quite happy with 7-2 from corral this morning and doubled up when laddies put up 4-1...gl all
1. will go off favored in american tote at odds of 8-5 to 2-1, making 4-1 a generous overlay
2. simply faster than mutts who competed in triple crown races based on beyers, his double top is faster than others have ever run
3. has race over track and that victory was despite a bit of trouble and racing against bias on dead rail
4. plots to get a perfect trip from his outside draw...lots of time before 1st turn to secure a position either on or just off of the pace
5. gets a weight break from super saver and lookin at lucky
my bets are in, i actually was quite happy with 7-2 from corral this morning and doubled up when laddies put up 4-1...gl all
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Main Street USA: Thanks for letting the cat out of the bag.. lol. ;)
Trappe Shot will be favoured, I agree... 8/5 or 2-1....and SHOULD be evens on my line. This is the first 3yo I have actually been excited about this year. Brilliant speed, looks like it can rate and go 2 turns, based on last race.... Could be this year's Quality Road.
Trappe Shot will be favoured, I agree... 8/5 or 2-1....and SHOULD be evens on my line. This is the first 3yo I have actually been excited about this year. Brilliant speed, looks like it can rate and go 2 turns, based on last race.... Could be this year's Quality Road.
I hope Trappe Shot ends up favored on the Monmouth t0te. That will make Super Saver the bet of the day.
Here's why:
1. So far, TS has beat nothing, I can't find ONE quality runner in any of those behind him so far
2. His last Beyer was flat although the track that day at MON was producing fast numbers
3. By Tapit, a mile and an 1/8 may prove a bridge too far for him
4. Super Saver is training back like a freight train, fires fresh and Pletcher stable white hot right now
5. Last but not least, if there's a way to lose you can count on Alan Garcia to usually find it.
Good luck whichever way you play it.
Here's why:
1. So far, TS has beat nothing, I can't find ONE quality runner in any of those behind him so far
2. His last Beyer was flat although the track that day at MON was producing fast numbers
3. By Tapit, a mile and an 1/8 may prove a bridge too far for him
4. Super Saver is training back like a freight train, fires fresh and Pletcher stable white hot right now
5. Last but not least, if there's a way to lose you can count on Alan Garcia to usually find it.
Good luck whichever way you play it.
TC
1) lol - you are always entertaining, whether I agree with your or not. Cheers :)
2) SS only truly rated ONCE in a race (ok, twice if you want to count the Ark. Derby)....he won't win with First Dude in there....either dragged through too-fast fractions, or worse, gets himself in front and cooked.
3) Take out the mud/rail-aided number from the KY Derby, and you are left with 'just another horse' in here.
4) I hate his name. :) Whats next 'Coupon'? 'Bargain Harold?'
5) If Trappe shot proves me wrong, and is not up to this task - comfortably - there are 3 or 4 in there who I honestly feel are likelier than SS.
Good luck to you, too. A fascinating race.
1) lol - you are always entertaining, whether I agree with your or not. Cheers :)
2) SS only truly rated ONCE in a race (ok, twice if you want to count the Ark. Derby)....he won't win with First Dude in there....either dragged through too-fast fractions, or worse, gets himself in front and cooked.
3) Take out the mud/rail-aided number from the KY Derby, and you are left with 'just another horse' in here.
4) I hate his name. :) Whats next 'Coupon'? 'Bargain Harold?'
5) If Trappe shot proves me wrong, and is not up to this task - comfortably - there are 3 or 4 in there who I honestly feel are likelier than SS.
Good luck to you, too. A fascinating race.
Yeah, I know what you mean mark, SS will show up at a 2 claimer at Yavapai to be able to win a race......LOL
Best of luck, if we all agreed, there wouldn't be a market.
Best of luck, if we all agreed, there wouldn't be a market.
cannot understand the hype re trappe shot. what's he ever beaten?
stronger stayers with stronger form in opposition.
find his price staggering.
stronger stayers with stronger form in opposition.
find his price staggering.
Darren - the key is the find the big horse BEFORE they prove it....not after.
Whats he beaten? Well....I could say the same about Super Saver and L at L - between them they usually get 95-99 Speed Figures.....certainly can't be much behind THEM either.
GO to Youtube, type Trappe Shot, and tell me you don't like what you see.........
Whats he beaten? Well....I could say the same about Super Saver and L at L - between them they usually get 95-99 Speed Figures.....certainly can't be much behind THEM either.
GO to Youtube, type Trappe Shot, and tell me you don't like what you see.........
watched his last run already, won easily, but i punt from a form perspective; he was 21/2 to the good over nacho friend, getting 2lb, and that one had previously been 13/4 behind afleet again, when geeting 6lb.
take your point that this is his chance to prove it, but his form does not justify his price.
take your point that this is his chance to prove it, but his form does not justify his price.
I see your point re: form references, Darren. But, I find that a difficult thing to put any faith in...I mean, we all know horses are different every time they run. I mean, RVW was within a couple lengths of Sea the Stars (as was Mastercraftsman) last year.....many times. But certainly we would not therefore say that when they were beaten badly at the BCUp that Sea the Stars would therefore be 6th beaten 5L to Zenyatta, right? (or would he ;) )
Anyways...fascinating, and as TC said earlier....thats why the markets work....your horse you'd lay at 8-1, is a horse I am happy to back at 4.5.
Enjoy!
Anyways...fascinating, and as TC said earlier....thats why the markets work....your horse you'd lay at 8-1, is a horse I am happy to back at 4.5.
Enjoy!
oh well.. small profit. Big lay of SS and small lay of IceBox covered my mistake on Trappe Shot. 2nd, but looks like L at L is getting better and better.... What a colt!
good that one of the 3yos finally stepped up; lookin a class act but the rest looked much of a muchness.
SS at 11/1 opening odds told you all you needed to know
TS picked up pieces to finish second and the 5/2 on it looks like a joke now AND WILL BE OVERBET next out as well
LaL super impressive today to lead the 3 year old division
Bring on the Travers
TS picked up pieces to finish second and the 5/2 on it looks like a joke now AND WILL BE OVERBET next out as well
LaL super impressive today to lead the 3 year old division
Bring on the Travers
TC: Trappe shot a very good horse who learned a lot today. Those 108 seconds were enough to tell me he will never be in L at L class, I think, as he looks like he has matured very well the past few months. (so rare for a 2yo like he was) L at L competition is no longer SS or Trappe Shot.....its Quality Road and your fellow Blame and Zenyatta. I'll never doubt him again....he's very very professional.
I know why I didn't like SS at all for this race, and was happy to lay a few time at 6s and 7s on BF, but was shocked to see the Public also recogized he was not really a contender today. I would never have imagined he'd be higher than 4-1. Sharp crowd!
I know why I didn't like SS at all for this race, and was happy to lay a few time at 6s and 7s on BF, but was shocked to see the Public also recogized he was not really a contender today. I would never have imagined he'd be higher than 4-1. Sharp crowd!
tc: on a completely different note, did you see that El Brujo, who won some good money for me at Woodbine and Keeneland in the past for Malcolm Pierce, is running in the Bing Crosby today under the tutelage of Bobby B? Pierce a good horseman, I know, but very interested to see what he can do for Baffert.
sorry mark, too busy betting
yes, I saw him but I have mixed feelings. One the one hand I think these are a different type than what he's been facing in the past and MP is not an easy guy to improve from, and on the other I have gotten used to Baffert pulling them out of the coffin.
if I was forced to bet, I'd be laying
yes, I saw him but I have mixed feelings. One the one hand I think these are a different type than what he's been facing in the past and MP is not an easy guy to improve from, and on the other I have gotten used to Baffert pulling them out of the coffin.
if I was forced to bet, I'd be laying
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