Eskendereya........???

Hes a wonderful horse, and every bit as good as 'they' say. But the Derby is a different animal. I have sever doubts he can get is usual perfect trip sitting 2nd or 3rd in that 20 horse field, and if he does he will be dead at the quarter pole. Best horse in the race, but happy to take him on due to the circumstances of the Derby. (and his trainer...who has them primed for preps, and not the 'big show' so far)

Yes, Todd Pletcher every year has 3 or more horses in the Kentuck Derby but has never won it and only hit the board once, I think.

Eskenderya is by far the best horse in the field so I'm not going to take him on but I wouldn't back him with confidence either.

as for Triple crown? Dozens of Far far better horses than him have fallen by the wayside - in the DERBY let alone showing up in the Belmont. No point discussing that 'til after the preakness. Id lay odds well into the triple digits at this stage that he will be the first since 1978 to do that. Brilliant horse...as I say, but 'brilliant' horses often don't win the Derby. Tough/battle-hardened horses who can stand getting dirt kicked in their face win the Derby.

leave it to the main man Bobby Baffert for the Derby, Lookin at Lucky was awesome in the Rebel, brutally unlucky in the Santa Anita Derby where he was the victim of a horrible gomez ride. Experiance in getting beaten up and big field (b/Cup Juvenile) stands out EW at around 6/1.... Masses of pace in the race... Rule, Super Saver, Sidneys Candy... will set the race up for lucky, even fancy Awesome Act for the exacta !! Come on bobby do the biz AGAIN !!

Cant have looking at lucky anywhere in the frame - continually finds trouble in the important races - think he'll struggle in this race (with the large field) and I wouldn't even be surprised if he doesn't get round the course! He is not a 'sound' horse!

Have to agree with you Sheikh about awesome - think he could run a big one and with a great jock aboard will definitely be up there - took him e/w at 40's a while back and am very confident that this horse will be a huge success in the US.

Oh as for Baffert - he leaves all is best runs in his 'works' - runs bullets but can't deliver where it matters......!! Look at lucky in BC juv and zensational in BC sprint.....!!! Lots more examples of this should you want to know them..?

non runner

MickInGoldersGreen 25 Apr 12:29


Oh as for Baffert - he leaves all is best runs in his 'works' - runs bullets but can't deliver where it matters......!! Look at lucky in BC juv and zensational in BC sprint.....!!! Lots more examples of this should you want to know them..?

Yes please I'd like a full list of these.

Gutted........

Had him backed at 33s with pp and was planning on laying a whack of it off early next week.
Shows the danger of stealing good prices early... :-(

Have to disagree with you about Baffert i'm afraid...

Do any of these ring a bell ...

Silver Charm 1997
Real Quiet 1998
War Emblem 2002

I'm massive on Lucky ew at 6/1 and have a nice touch on Awesome Act at 16's and a little at 20s ew... Not seen a revised list yet but think i'll be sitting pretty come Saturday afternoon!

Shame about Eskendreya, never wish bad luck on a horse.
On a side note im gonna go big on Careless Jewel against Rachel on Friday !! Could be a good week this !!

Sheikh I am not rubbishing baffert - he has won 3 derbies, 4 preakness's and 1 belmont and 0 breeders cup classic's - pretty average really when you consider his years in the game and the number of horses passing through his stables! All I am saying that his 'hot' prospects tend to do great works but disappoint on the big day - I merely quoted two very recent examples!

As for lucky - i wouldn't touch him at double digits - may even lay him on the day! So I will stand corrected if you prove me wrong and I ll be man enough to come back on and say well done to you.

I managed to get a bit of awesome at 40's each way - rate him very highly and cant see him out of the frame!

As for careless jewel...ummmmmmmmmm not sure what to make of this girl - backed her at the breeders cup after a few very impressive wins - got to say the jock was a complete re.tard that day but I think we sill see the real rachel next friday....!

nonetheless good luck.

"pretty average really" is a bit harsh when you compare his record to Todd Pletcher whos horse you fancied isnt it?

bluenose by name, stupid by nature!
Read my comments and tell where exactly it is that I WROTE TP was a superior trainer to BB.......???

You are probably a h.un and now drunk after today's league win - sober up and then write some thing sensible or say noute :-)

You didnt say Todd Pletcher was superior but you said Bob Bafferts record was pretty average.

If thats one of your reasons for laying lucky then i think you are mistaken.

can any one tell me the problem with the fav that was pulled out yesterday please

Doncaster- Please find belwo excerpt from todays DRF:-

LOUISVILLE, Ky. - Eskendereya, the strong favorite for Saturday's 136th Kentucky Derby, was withdrawn from the race Sunday morning because of swelling in his left front leg, trainer Todd Pletcher said.

Pletcher said "hopefully, it's not career-threatening," but said it was too early to tell.

"We'll do the diagnostics when we get the swelling out of his leg," Pletcher said at a news conference at Churchill Downs.

Think it is interesting given the amount of starters that Pletcher will have that he has declared the Filly "Devil May Care" and making bullish noises that Velasquez will be the jock when Johnny Val could ride any one of the others hmm... very interesting...
Looks like we have rounded out the trifecta !!
1 - Lookin at Lucky
2- Awesome Act
3- Devil May Care
Where Do I collect please?

Baffert avg???? Who else has that many triple crown wins aside from D Wayne? And he is not nearly as old as his white hair is making you think. oh boy......thats nuts. Anyways, I will tell you one thing about Baffert, he made his name the HARD way. Finding 2yos in training at sales that were sometimes bought for low prices, and he'd turn them into champs. Even now, I would say he does very well with his stock compared to what some people are given breeding-wise. Had a lull when Poly came in, but he has adjusted

"Champion LOOKIN AT LUCKY (Smart Strike), soon to be installed as the morning-line favorite in Saturday's Kentucky Derby (G1), underscored his credentials with a bullet five-furlong breeze at Churchill Downs on Monday........"

Now where have I heard that before...........?

Some more Baffert magic......

"He worked well," Baffert said. "The track was really in good shape. It's soft today. I've been worrying about the rain, but it worked out. The horse in front of him (Broken Tango) was a perfect distance to him. It's what you want to see going in. I was happy with the work. From here on, we just need some luck, we need to draw well and have a good trip."

I see Bob only needs a few things in his favour and another derby is in the bag:
- ALL horses must stay at a good distance (in front, behind or along side) from lucky because gomez can't keep a horse clear of trouble.
- A good draw (but defo not a Big Brown one at 20 because the horse isn't really that good as evidenced at the BC).
- A good trip...... which presumably means no horse should interfere with him, bump him or knock him - oh and perhaps no horse should pass him in the stretch?

All set up nicely for lucky again - great works every time in the build up and then.......................................(check back in on saturday for the answer).

wow, man....you act like he is a 1/9 shot who is SUPPOSED to win. Did you see THE quote today where he said his horse should not even be favoured? In all honestly, I cannot understand where you are coming from - if you can pick on BAFFERT for the DERBY, when he has by far the best record in it (3 wins, many placings since he started in '96) then you can pick on every other goddamned trainer in America. Or how about Saeed bin Surroors record in the Derby. He 'only' has 3 less in the last 15 years...not bad! lol

btw...I do agree, Looking at Lucky is not a very good bet to win..........I do not fancy him in the least. But its nothing to do with his trainer, but rather he has not progressed....figure-wise....from his 2yo form

Mark - firstly why the 'picking on baffert' comment? If you read through the thread all I have said is that baffert's 'hot' prospects have a habit of leaving their best on the 'works'! I cited two very recent examples. I have already said I am not rubbishing baffert, I mentioned his track record at this event and the other classics and called it average given the size of his operation! I accept maybe this was a little harsh - he is better than average (and probably better than many of his peers).

On 'Lucky' all I am rubbishing is the hype around this horse - he is not a great horse - in fact he has many many flaws which have been exposed clearly and obviously in two out of his last four races (santa anita derby and bc juvenile).

These are merely the reasons why I wouldn't touch the horse even at double digits - in fact I will lay him! And given his history I can't understand why he is favoured!

As for comments by baffert about the favouritism tag - c'mon mark - football managers do it all the time to detract pressure! It is normal no matter how great the horse/team is.

As for bin suroor - I am not going to comment on some one who 'buys' success or at least attempts to! Throw enough cash about and sooner or later some of it will stick. John Oxx showed the world that there is humility in thoroughbred horse racing/training.

I hope this clears up my reason for not supporting lucky - nothing personal against baffert.

And finally before you nod off - awesome is my value bet - great horse, great trainer and a real genuine good chance.

And conveyance for a place (ummmmm I cant recall who trains him ;-) )

Mick, perhaps 'pick on' was the wrong choice of words. 'Singling out' perhaps made more sense. Also...I didn't realize that Looking at Lucky WAS being hyped up? Your other points make sense....and I agree, mostly, aside from thw 'works'. I think you will find that his horses win at a greater rate than most (hes 25% strike rate) - and his record in Graded stakes is 32%, so......... I dunno. Anyways....Gentleman's wager if you are willing to take it: Lookin at Lucky doesn't go off favoured at Churchill.

markeypd- I think you have to lose your wager, who else could possibly go off favorite? Sidney's Candy widely recognized as the 2nd fav has a draw worse only than Lucky ! Devil May Care may go off 2nd fav but i think it is inconceivable that lucky does not go off as fav !
A very average renewal of the great race it appears !!!
If it rains- Paddy O'Prado is an each way bet for me....(that gives me a superfecta now!! :) )

We'll see, Sheikh. a lot of 'dumb' money comes in on the Derby. Did you know that Stephen got Even was nearly favoured in Fusaichi Pegasus' Derby? Was only in the last couple of flashes that Fusaichi became the favourite. that said, having looked a little closer, I agree he might end up a very tepid favourite, but I'd be shocked if he's lower than 4-1