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31 May 16 22:37
Date Joined: 12 May 01
| Topic/replies: 6,051 | Blogger: bongo's blog
Someone has computed the likely swing in the FTSE index if Britain votes to leave the EU:


So if the FTSE drops below 5760 (7.5% less than now), then pile on, you won't be disappointed.
When the dust settles and we find out we are leaving the EU but staying in the Single Market, then it will bounce back up a few months.
Pause Switch to Standard View Swing in equities if the UK votes for...
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Report jollyswagman June 1, 2016 6:18 PM BST
what if us leaving is the catalyst for the next crisis?  i'm not saying it will be as there are far too many imponderables for me. i know we are only a small part of the world's gdp but as one of the main centres of finance we are very important. even if we werent there is still the butterfly effect.   

it does seem likely if we vote out that the pound and shares will come under pressure in the short term. of course i'm assuming that we get to the referendum without a big economic shock which may or may not be the case. what happens to the brexit vote if the world economy starts creeking again before 23 june?

the world's gone mad, economically speaking, and i keep thinking about the yank who said 'it's hard to make predictions, especially about the future' Laugh
Report Dr Crippen June 25, 2016 3:02 PM BST
There was never going to be much of a deviation out of line with the direction that the FTSE was taking, whatever the result of the Brexit election.

Of course the market makers and professionals would use the news to swing the market about - that's how they make money.
The market was set to go up from the test on the 16th this month.
Nevertheless the resistance it would meet at 6300 is there for all to see.

Take out the money making plunge after the Brexit result, and there's nothing to see in the movement of the FTSE index from its expected route. 
In fact it finished up on the week.
Report Dr Crippen June 25, 2016 3:20 PM BST
^A perfect example of how the market professionals move the market around on the back of the news.
Report Dr Crippen June 29, 2016 2:15 PM BST
That resistance at 6300 -3400 we are approaching is still there, and it will take a mighty effort to get through it.
It's more likely that there'll be some churning around that level then a drive back down.

If you're a bull, look for gapping up above that level on opening, or a rapid move through the resistance early in the day.

This is a very difficult market to judge at the moment as regards a big move up or down.
Report Dr Crippen June 29, 2016 4:54 PM BST
That should be 6300 - 6400.
Report sageform June 29, 2016 6:23 PM BST
Winners and losers but over all we are back to where we have been for months-around the 6300 mark. Plenty of headlines about Banks and Airline shares (Turkish news might have something to do with the latter) but total silence about my favourite FTSE share, Bunzl, who put on £1.12 today (5.3%) on top of an all time high yesterday. Not news apparently.
Report jollyswagman July 5, 2016 10:38 AM BST
imo the markets went back up because of the explicit guarantees from the central bankers around the world. anything to keep the bubbles inflated. of course this does little if anything for the real economy.
Report JML July 5, 2016 5:28 PM BST
Since brexit,the huge global companies(oil,miners,drugs and tobacco) that make up the huge majority of the ftse 100 index
have done very well.
British companies like M&S,Whitbread and British land are well down since brexit as is the ftse 250 which is mostly made up of Brits.
Report Dr Crippen July 20, 2016 1:00 PM BST
The resistance at 6300-6400 was breached with a 200 points move on the 30 June.

The index is now churning around 6700 with the resistance at the same level back in August taking its toll.

With three consecutive upthrusts and narrow spreads after the good rise, it looks like the selling is underway.

The odds are on a mark down from here.

I expect a mark down pretty soon from this level co
Report Dr Crippen July 20, 2016 1:02 PM BST
Forget the last line. I left it in by mistake.
Report ditchbert July 22, 2016 3:08 PM BST
You may well be right but there is no sign of any mark down at present.
Report Dr Crippen July 25, 2016 4:17 PM BST
So what do you think the next move will be ditchbert, up or down?
Report Money Tree cost me thousands!! July 26, 2016 1:26 PM BST
Report Dr Crippen July 26, 2016 8:18 PM BST
MTcmt, what do you base that on?
Report Money Tree cost me thousands!! July 26, 2016 11:13 PM BST
Report Money Tree cost me thousands!! July 27, 2016 11:17 PM BST
Blind hope Infact.
Report Money Tree cost me thousands!! July 28, 2016 11:00 PM BST
Faltering hope.
Report Dr Crippen July 29, 2016 2:24 PM BST
I'm not predicting a crash by the way.
Just a mark down from these levels so that the whole procedure can repeat itself. It all depends on the action.

Yesterday was another strong bar for the bears; increased volume on a narrow spread with no upwards progress suggests far more supply than demand.
Report Money Tree cost me thousands!! July 29, 2016 11:28 PM BST
Bob hope.
Report Money Tree cost me thousands!! July 31, 2016 12:01 AM BST
From despair to where.
Report Callisto-moon August 21, 2016 9:37 AM BST
No hope.
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