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11 Nov 15 14:52
Date Joined: 25 Feb 05
| Topic/replies: 718 | Blogger: pipedreamer's blog
Tesco is very weak.I suppose that the sharp rally from 165 to 204 was a bear squeeze.But its fall since then has been just as steep.I'm watching the smaller movements but i can't analyse them,its hard,best guess is that a rally is going to start SOMETIME,probably sharp,to what magnitude i don't know,not enough to tempt me at this moment anyway.I don't see any reason except to keep a watch on the movements.Surely with what's happening in the sector etc,there's no need to do anything but wait.
I put in my other post about Blackrock World Mining Trust being a possible buy at 214,since then they have been down to 192 [Elliott wave bottom on my calcs was 188] and up to 248.They have now made a perfect Elliott pullback to 213,and are now about 219.I'm tempted,but unlike Tesco's chart this shares chart is a lot more difficult,just not enough for me  to buy from here.It may well go above 248 again,but the percent profit to the possible downside risk is not a risk that i'd like to take.
From what i can see previous Commodity booms show an almost identical chart again now and we are probably going to bump along the bottom sometime in the near future,a sideways movement.If you take timelines into consideration when looking at the last commodity boom,the next one isn't due till around 2025,so i guess no rush.
Unless of course somebody else on here has another point of view.I only have a what i would regard as a basic knowledge of charts,i don't have the supposedly brilliant computer hardware that we are told will reveal the way to profits.
Pause Switch to Standard View Tesco very weak,what about Blackrock...
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Report Dr Crippen November 13, 2015 11:45 AM GMT
brilliant computer hardware that we are told will reveal the way to profits.

Yes pipedreamer, along with an even better brilliant sales pitch that goes with selling it. 
This is a fantastic market to tap.
By attracting people who are known to have substantial amounts of money to gamble with. And there is one born every minute so they say.

On to Tesco.
The latest rally can be put down to Tesco simply following the market. 
There was a healthy 8% to be had from Tesco here by simply buying on the turn of the FTSE which was pretty easy to read on the second bottom 29 Sept along with Tesco.
Then selling when Tesco hit the resistance just above 200 which is clear to see, two days after the FTSE went weak on that upthrust 7 October.
That was the starting point for the selling of the FTSE that has resulted in the drops we are seeing now.

Of course Tesco fell much sharper which shows that there are people out there who know exactly what they are doing.
It's easy to see in hindsight. Not so easy when your cash is on the line though.
However this example does hammer home the point that an investor does well to trade in harmony with the index.
Ignoring the index is a mugs game.
Report Dr Crippen November 13, 2015 12:01 PM GMT
You really need to read the chart of the index along with the chart of the share in question.

And you absolutely need to understand the importance of volume when reading a chart.
Report pipedreamer November 13, 2015 6:21 PM GMT
Yes Doc,agree entirely,and yes Tesco does mirror the index,which helps if one chart is puzzling,then the index can make it all clear.I am not up to speed with the volume factor,perhaps i should concentrate on shares instead of the horses.
If i did the shares using the same system as i use on the horses i could quite possibly do extremely well.
My system pinpoints the correct weight that the winner has,so i get the winner in 4 or 5.Pity is i can't seem to get it down to one.
Even this achievement of pinpointing the area of the winner,even in massive fields is something remarkable,so the question is, shall i give up the horses and try and apply my system to the stock market?.I must add that my system is totally apart from technical analysis as its known.I don't even know if it can be applied successfully to it.
I have also to add that i'm nearing 67 and it would be an exhausting experiment.But i love a challenge.Perhaps you and others on here could standby and give me some help re opinions as to the shares i may pick.What do you think?.
Report Dr Crippen November 16, 2015 10:30 AM GMT
Simple answer for pipedreamer.
I buy on the turn of the main index the FTSE100.
So I check that the shares I intend to buy have shown that they follow the index and are volatile. 
What I mean by volatile is that when they move they are capable of moving more than most of the others that make up the index.
I care little for the long-term prospects of any company because I don't hold them long enough for it to be important.
Take Tesco, many on here have expressed their dislike for the shares of the company.
Yet by selective buying and selling of their shares there have been some good opportunities to make money from them as over the last year or so.

The bit that I highlighted is important because you don't want to buy a company that is in such dire straights that it doesn't respond to the small upturns of the index as it falls.
Report Dr Crippen November 16, 2015 10:33 AM GMT
^^That way you will avoid the embarrassing position of having just bought a stock when the big turn comes, and then watching the index soaring away while your share is stuck in the doldrums.
Report pipedreamer November 16, 2015 9:34 PM GMT
Yes Doctor a very good strategy.I agree entirely about going in and out on technical bounces.I bought Tesco  a year ago at 172 and got out when they got to 251,making a tidy profit.I can't workout the movements of Tesco at the mo,and will wait for it to become clearer.
With Tesco have you got a buy point yourself for these?.I got under 120 for these at the mo.I don't think that Blackrock is worth b othering about.
Report Dr Crippen November 17, 2015 2:00 PM GMT
I haven't got a buy point for Tesco or any other share if it comes to that.
Although a previous support level is always worth a second look.
Tesco came very close to dropping to a support level yesterday.

It appears to rallying at the moment along with the FTSE.
The FTSE marked up over 100 points at the open and no more progress suggests selling, although plenty can happen between on and close.
I will not be getting involved.
Report Dr Crippen November 17, 2015 2:01 PM GMT
Should be:

although plenty can happen between now and close.
Report pipedreamer November 20, 2015 11:51 AM GMT
Perhaps the good Doctor can confirm.The footsie chart and Tesco chart are identical,except am i right in saying that the Tesco chart seems at the moment to be slightly behind the footsie?.Where the footsie shows a sharp up move Tesco doesn't.
Unless of course I'm reading the waves slightly wrong?.Or totally wrong!!!!?.Pity i haven't yet applied my horse system to the stock market.The horses of course is miles harder,yet at the mo its doing spectacularly well.I'd only have to be marginally right with this system in applying it to  shares as it would be a good back-up to technical analysis.
I'm pretty good at this sort of stuff,unlike punters with the horses,they look to the form book for answers,i know the the secret is found in the last place that you would look.Explaining it this way.Everybody knows that King Solomon's mine is in Africa,and they search for it there,but the ENTRANCE to it is probably in China!![yes i know, a bloody long walk!!].But i'm sure you know what i mean.The masses are the last to know things,and they are only fed stuff and nonsense.
All i need now is to find some energy from somewhere to start on the long road towards it.
Report Dr Crippen November 20, 2015 7:15 PM GMT
FTSE verses Tesco.
From their last bottoms FTSE 13th this month I've got a 3.5% rise.
While Tesco bottomed on the 16 and has risen 2.88% so far.

What about giving us a clue to your horse racing approach?
Most of us still don't know where the mine is.
Report pipedreamer November 20, 2015 8:36 PM GMT
Doctor,Tesco was 166.2 on the 16th,but 165.15 on September 24th which is lower.Are you calling the 16th as the middle part of what is known as a running correction?.I can't quite read the wave movements.Their lengths are off,one should be longer than the one before.My confusion is probably down to my limited tech analysis skills.
In the latest down move,Tesco's was a lot deeper than the Footsies.Guess i'll just have to wait till its clearer ?.As for the horses,why don't people read the race-card as a treasure map?.Perhaps they should look at it as if it's a share chart?.
Report Dr Crippen November 21, 2015 6:17 PM GMT
No pipe I thought you meant from the last upturn in the market.
Report Dr Crippen February 9, 2016 11:47 AM GMT
Tesco bucking the trend now.

''As of last trade, Tesco PLC (TSCO:LSE) traded at 177.00, 29.20% above the 52 week low of 137.00 set on Jan 07, 2016.''

The FTSE lost about 4.5% over the same period.
Report Money Tree cost me thousands!! February 9, 2016 11:52 AM GMT
It's a tough market for food retailers at the moment.
Loyalty does not exist like it used to.
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