Tradefair & Financials

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18 May 15 15:31
Date Joined: 25 Feb 05
| Topic/replies: 718 | Blogger: pipedreamer's blog
I'd be interested to know what you all think as to the best tools to use.
Pause Switch to Standard View Do any of you use charts,Elliott...
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Report bongo May 18, 2015 5:11 PM BST
the one between your ears
Report G1_Jockey_4 May 22, 2015 12:50 PM BST
lay tescos.
too much competition...unless we want to all be obese.
Report pipedreamer May 22, 2015 12:57 PM BST
I guess thats a gut reaction?.No seriously, theres nothing wrong with your perception,but WHEN would you buy them and why?.
Report G1_Jockey_4 May 23, 2015 12:36 PM BST
i wouldnt.

unless the foreign ones couldnt compete and fkd off
Report G1_Jockey_4 May 27, 2015 9:20 AM BST
also id do a bit of digging re aldis and lidls.

i personally dont like them much but i can see why they are growing on the continent.

unlike ours supermarkets....
Report Dr Crippen May 27, 2015 11:19 AM BST
What's your plan?

To buy and hold regardless and hope for the best. That's what Warren Buffet appears to do by the way.

Or do you trade shares to a set plan with multiple buying and selling?

It's very important to set out in your mind what your plan is.

Take Tesco which has been rubbished quite often on here. To me it looked a classic share to start trading late last year.
Yet many wouldn't touch them with a barge pole, and with good reason too.

It all depends on what your strategy is.
Report pipedreamer May 27, 2015 8:41 PM BST
Crippen,my view on tesco can be read in GI JOCKEYS telegraph post
Report pipedreamer May 27, 2015 8:41 PM BST
Hello Doctor,my views on Tesco are available on G.I. jockeys post about The Telegraph.For the mo Tesco will prob go back up to the 230 range and after a while then start its next fall, which will be severe.
Lots of stuff is about Math,technical analysis, tho on reading some peoples analysis on this surprises me.
The problem is that most people make decisions based on assumptions.The last Election  proved this.People said that they didnt like Balls and Milliband as people.How does that square when you put them next to Thatcher and Johnson?.Anyway people basically do the equivalent of walking through the desert without a map or any contingency plan [Osbourne;"I have no plan B",bonkers.],when making financial decisions.
You have to plot bottoms for shares mathematically,if they dont go down as far never mind go on to the next share that you have plotted and WAIT.No emotion!!!!!,or feeling,gut feeling even!!!.Thats the best stategy.
Report Dr Crippen May 27, 2015 9:17 PM BST
When you say ''plot bottoms'' do you mean using a point and figure chart and taking a count?
Report Dr Crippen May 27, 2015 9:25 PM BST
I haven't got an opinion on Tesco at the moment by the way.
Report pipedreamer May 29, 2015 9:33 PM BST
Sorry for delay ,lost earlier post mid reply.Only the other day i got out an old copy of David Fullers Chart analysis weekly book circa 1981 !!!.I used to do the box counting trick but its a bit vague at the mo,so long ago,perhaps you could refresh my memory?.
I do the ratios of any share fall and rallys to give me a bottom for any falling share.I normally end up with about 3 figures each for two separate bottoms.They are normally fairly close together,and the nearer you get to them the clearer it becomes as to which particular price its going to be.Heres an example.
Eurodisney had come down from the 200 range and stood at about 90p.I calculated a bottom of 33p.It turned at 34p and went up to 72p in a fairly short time.Now thats impressive.Lots of other examples,thats why i only take notice of this system only.
Far too often i read people saying that they "feel" that the market will go up.feelings are emotion and don't belong in decision making in finance.For me decision making without my calcs on the charts would be for me going for a walk across a desert without a map,very dangerous.I have a few price ranges foer Tesco and will add to them.I have been looking at other shares,but at 66 years of age its very tiring,also there are few decent shares approaching lows,so a lot of work is involved in finding them.
I dont know when but i'm sure it will happen that gold will recover and end up with a spike sometime,just like in 1980.
There is also simple calc to find tops and bottoms of the uk market and gold,it gives you the exhaustion point that a market can reach,and the bottom in an oversold market,that they are mainly going to reach at some future date.
When the footsie was at about 5000 some 20 years ago i applied this very thing and came out with a figure of a top of roughly 6500,not a bad call!!!.Since then its been stuck in a sideways trading range.Anyway looking forward to your reply.By the way it does sound easy but the trouble is,does the footsie spike up now, OR does it plum the depths to its oversold figure FIRST!!!,THEN resume its next big Bull market?.
With little resistance from the unions OR voters, looks like its going up?
Report G1_Jockey_4 May 30, 2015 8:16 PM BST
steer well clear of tescos imo...for reasons above and the potential of eu migrants choosing standard of living in other countries.

my theory is based on what i see when i go abroad (a lot).

eu migramts will head back or to a better life when the eurozone picks up.....that would worry me about investing int he ftse long term especially retailers who are mainly in the uk..
Report G1_Jockey_4 May 30, 2015 8:17 PM BST
if your chart hasn't encountered that before how would it predict it?
Report Dr Crippen May 31, 2015 11:59 AM BST
I don't use point and figure charts, but I'm interested to know how you calculate a bottom or a top with the method you're using?
Those Euro Disney shares you mention. I can't find the chart with the price action you mention.
Report Dr Crippen May 31, 2015 12:59 PM BST
As regards predicting the next move of the FTSE. I can't see with any confidence where it's going in the short term at the moment let alone in the medium or long term.
That puts me in good company with the experts who are notorious at getting it wrong.

Tesco again....
One has to ask oneself what it is they buy shares for?
Surely it's to buy low and then sell them high?
Look at the chart for Tesco.
You only had to trade them in harmony with the FTSE 100 to make money.
Although you do have to be able to read a daily bar chart with volume for the turns.
I can see 40% in them after the second obvious bottom in December.
The first rise in October would have yielded around 14%.

With the money now safely in the bank out of harms way.
Report pipedreamer May 31, 2015 6:46 PM BST
GI jock,i take it you mean the prediction re the E.U. migrants?Doctor, as i say i dont know whether its 10000 on the footsie or 2200 next,best guess is that theres little opposition to the big boys doing exactly what they want.
Even after 30 years when Thatcher was warned "You can't do that the electorate won't stand for it",the people are still standing for it!and STILL not puting up any argument atall.
Only when you have a situation like the miners strike in 1974,will the market fall.Not even a whiff of that at the mo!.
I don't like you have the knowledge re volumes at turning points,obviously very useful.By the way Euro disney was some 20 years ago,i have no idea whats happened to them.As for calcs that i use,i wont put them on here.
But if you can find a way that we can discuss it in private,no problem.
A lot of people couldnt work out last October when all the very bad news came out about Tesco,that tyhe price actually went up!,only with charts can you see thru it all.Sometimes a buy signal is triggered and everybody has no idea why there going up.BUT the chart says that somethings going on.Later down the line good news comes out showing exactly why the shrewdies had been buying.
Anyway i'll leave it like that for the mo.Please feel free to still comment,its been interesting,i don't very often get to share views and info with the right people.Oh by the way i am also a little bit cute re the horses,had loads of  massive priced winners but never had the confidence to really steam in.It's been very painful and comes under the heading of "how can i be right and everybody else wrong!?".I wouldn't mind but having been told that by punters that the outsider of 24 cant win,it wins travelling all the way inthe race like an odds on fav at 28-1.Its name was Abu Kadra and on the following Monday it was reported that a guy walked into a shop on the saturday and placed £2500 on it.A salutory lesson that SOME people do know something,but tyhe 5% that own 95% of everything don't tell the remaining 5% whats going on.
Everybody can do research themselves and work out whats going on [that's researching facts, NOT as a lot of people do, e.g.research or analyse,somebody elses ANALYSIS!].
Anyway i do punting for fun,it must be a rainman thing?.i seem to spot some things that other people don't see.I'll sign off for now.
Report G1_Jockey_4 June 1, 2015 11:54 AM BST
let us now which shop they managed to get 2500 on mate....think it could be a very busy shop soon Laugh

btw eu migration can only go one way if the voters had a say which would be bad news also for tescos.
when the eurozone picks up its heading only one way.

people need to be careful with the ftse.
Report G1_Jockey_4 June 1, 2015 11:56 AM BST
btw tescos failed in europe.

where i go when abroad the local lidls carpark is rammoed.
i dont liek the shop much as the quality is low....(just like tesco) ...but they have done well on the continent as well as the uk.
long term tesco will find it a lot harder to top he supermarket list in the uk.

only way they do well is if one or two of he competition go bust or get out of the uk....or maybe the government promote obesity.
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