Tradefair & Financials

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19 Mar 15 17:42
Date Joined: 12 May 01
| Topic/replies: 6,051 | Blogger: bongo's blog
There have been busts in all the big industries affected by the internet.
On the high street, Jessops, Comet, Woolies to some extent.
In the world of pr0n, the Sport went under, but I think it's been bailed out and still going, but at least one of the lads mags has hit the wall.

I've a view that one of the major newspapers will fold this year if you forgive the weak pun, and it will be the Telegraph:
-it's not behind a paywall like the FT or the Times, because it's not good enough
-it's had bad press regarding the HSBC advertising contract, but the reason it bends over for the advertising is because it's struggling and needs the revenue over integrity, and Peter Oborne left in much publicity because of this
-the owners ( Barclay brothers ) are believed to be losing money from the paper, but also they are losing money from other things they do afaik such as Yodel and they are both 80, so may not want to prop the paper up much longer
-the chief exec of the paper lied to the Leveson enquiry, whether more will come from this isn't known.

But let's say the Telegraph does fold - what's the best way to profit if right - buy shares in News Corp currently at 16.60 dollars? - or something else.
Pause Switch to Standard View I think the Telegraph will go bust -...
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Report bongo March 19, 2015 5:02 PM GMT
Forget all the above

Just found out from (. that the telegraph group does make a profit and does have a paywall operating. It's the other papers that could be in trouble first.
Report pipedreamer May 20, 2015 2:15 PM BST
Considering that you are reasonably intelligent judged on this post,could you tell me why i have such negative posts?.I feel that some assumptions have been made about me?.
Perhaps you could give me a clue as to why you think this is?.I post in all good faith and are constantly puzzled as to the reactions and posts i get.I tend to get replies 10 degrees seperated from my question.
Basically everyone seems to know or think something about me that i dont.Can you help in this respect.Surely on this site people use charts?,so why no replies or puzzling negative ones?
You post well,seem intelligent,so why this response?.
Report bongo May 20, 2015 7:32 PM BST
Thanks for the (sort of) compliment pipedreamer. For info you'd have lost a lot of money backing anything I said regarding shares ( see 'drunk advice on wine and inflation' for some fails ) so I wouldn't claim any intelligence, but thanks anyway. The OP on the Telegraph turned out to be total crep and the Newscorp share price is now 15.40.

Since the OP I found out that the Guardian sold its stake in AutoTrader for 600m GBP which means the Guardian newspaper owners could keep operating losses on its paper for a hundred years with that stashed in the bank. So may be the Times is most at risk. Or perhaps the Independent ( Independent News and Media INM , Irish Stock Exchange IPDC ) as the group has a fair bit of radio as well, and that's a medium that's not going to the stars.

I judged you on one post only, which was really three questions about charts, Elliott and Tesco. The theme of the question was to get someone to tell you their thoughts, for free:
-firstly, there are no people on here ( just you and me I think, perhaps 3 others )
-secondly, you expected a helpful and informative answer ( there are analysts at Hargreaves Lansdowne, Aberdeen and St James getting paid for writing their shiite, people like Robbie Burns with his book about Naked Trading for sale, and you're hoping for a free answer )
-thirdly, some of what you see on here is original stuff, and hard work has gone into it. Ok, it can be interesting to get data on the public finances and convert it into spending and income numbers, rather than the deficit to national income figures that it's usually displayed as so big government can confuse us, but it's still effort and it's still original.

On charts - the Robbie Burns book, Naked Trader pretty much explains that there is no formula from charts that will serve you well. They've been analysed to death. If there was a formula, it wouldn't be shared anyway.
On Elliott - never heard of him
On Tesco - not really interested. But if you are interested, visit them. Check out the competition. See who is getting consumer awards for pleasing customers ( it's Aldi and Waitrose ) and who isn't. Speak to the staff there if you're an extrovert, and ask them if they like the job. You have to know something that the market doesn't. Not a lot more, but something that will give you a few %. You're not looking for a nice 3/1 winner like when you do the horses, you're looking for a safe 1.05 winner over a year when you dabble on shares.

Oddly, I bought some plonk in a Waitrose recently, self-service checkout, the ting ting sounds for a staff member to verify I'm over 18 or 25 whatever, over she comes and does two little things - first, she looks straight at me, second she swipes the authorisation thingy and says 'enjoy your wine'. Now in Tesco they would see you, but without the eye contact, and swipe and be gone without a word. Waitrose treat you like you're special, and so they should for the prices, but that's what pleases the customer.

I've done ok on a couple of angles in the last year, one is when a price drops because of something a politician says. We still live in a predominantly free market economy, just. So getting in at that point has a logic to it, as it will be undervalued. Stay in for a while, but when getting out the best time is around a month before the ex-dividend date, as the dividend is built into the price, and dividends are taxed anyway, so there's a certain tax efficiency to getting out about a month before.

But a little effort in posting requests goes a long way imv.
Report pipedreamer May 20, 2015 9:44 PM BST
Nice post,i didnt tho think that people were looking for free info?,thought it was an exchange of views?.Anyway,i'm surprised that you havent heard of Elliott Wave theory.I learned the basics of it back in the early eighties and its pretty good and gives you prices where a share will meet resistance.
Its only useful when combined with fundamentals.I think its good because i calculated back in 1980 that Gold would one day bottom at 250.15 years later Gordon Brown sold our gold reserves at that price which puzzled me.I button-holed a few city traders in bars for advice only to be told that Gold was yesterdays story and there were better derivatives around.So much for the experts!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!.pity i took notice of them,public school twits!!!
I generally find that these people say they know something, but the havent done any research themselves,therefore they only know what they have been TOLD.
Thats why Financial advisers are a no-no.
I'm sure that you would agree that money can even be made on a technical bounce in a share whose fundamentals are basically bad [Tescos Bounce 166 to 251 for inst],there is a simple calc for the true price of gold and the exhaustion top point of the Footsie,as also is the lowest bottom figure of the footsie calculable.
I spoke to a unit trust manager once and he told me that he "felt" that shares would do this and that.I told him that "feelings" were emotion,and told him that emotion should never be used in making decisions regarding investing,[basic really].I asked him where his math calcs came in to it,silly really,these guys are real chumps.
Anyway i'm rambling, suffice to say i have Tesco with bottom prices at 110 and the 80 to 90 pence range,if they get down to there, calcs should say whether its one or the other price range.
Anyway its good to talk.catch you later.
Report Money Tree cost me thousands!! May 27, 2015 11:05 PM BST
Is the true price of gold not the price it's trading at?
If not what is it?
Report pipedreamer May 29, 2015 11:30 PM BST
Money tree,everything reaches a overbought/oversold position,which means that its gone over its fundamental value.Its all calculable,and you wont find explanations about it in your local newspaper.
They keep the majority in the dark,suffice to say that its only in a persons later years that they work out how things move and why.Its annoying!,i wont be around to catch the long term bottom for gold the next time around.
Because when your young your uncertain,you tend to look for confirmation of your opinions.So you ask the "experts "who you find out later know nothing,but its too late then,missed opportunities,thats how they keep you down,constantly telling you that you know nothing.
I'm lax to give advice to people [see, hard habit to break,lacking confidence uncertainty]as its only a theory.
But its based on solid math,so you can choose who to listen to.
Remember there are plenty of experts out there that got it wrong, esp in America with the sub-prime crash in 2007.You would have thought that a leading financial editor of one of their famous tabloids would have at least have had a certain amount of knowledge so as to avoid he himself going broke?.
Well aparently,so wrong did he get it that he went broke.So much for informed opinion.
Report Money Tree cost me thousands!! May 29, 2015 11:42 PM BST
That's good advice and true.
If tescos hits a £1 I'd buy in as the risk side would be worth it.

I have to admit to investing on feelings or emotions. For instance I've bought morrisons
as I think the team they have employed understand the basics of food retaling and will over the next two years
give the company a sales increase.

I only sold half my silver a few years back just incase the price still lifted. That's a decision that still irritates me now.
Report bongo May 30, 2015 7:39 PM BST
I'm confused by the strategy being suggested here. It seems highly dangerous.

Just suppose you think in the next 5 years Tesco will go from being a 17bn GBP company to being a 12bn GBP company. Obviously within that decline there will be some upswings, and you want to catch one.

But let's also suppose you think that in the next 5 years FirstGroup will got from being a 1.4bn GBP company to being a 2bn GBP company. If you are right, then statistically you are more likely to catch an upswing on this one, as the longer term trend is on your side.
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