Yes, it's finally official !!!! It's happy day here in the UK today, we're on our way back to full recovery. Slowly but surely. At least this what all the feel-good news propaganda machine…eeeer, sorry, I meant the media is telling Britons today, along with grinning politicians posing in front of cameras, smiling economic pundits and even the about to soon become new millionaires, shoe shine boys. Yes sir, the UK economy grew by 1.0pc in the three months to September, beating expectations and making it the strongest recovery in five years. No more contraction territory, we broke though to expanding the economy again….the British way. Even the Prime Minister couldn't contain his enthusiasm yesterday when he teased us with a "good news" could be expected line and a wry smile. Yes sir, we're back to growing again……and borrowing our way to prosperity.
////// sarc
Now, let's have a closer look, shall we?
Here's what they tell you:
The "one-offs" contributing to GDP, according to the lying ONS, contributed to about 0.7pc (could even more, they admit they don't know) to the GDP number. The extra bank holiday that wiped out 0.5pc growth in Q2 was not there to worry about in Q3 and the Olympics added another one-time, not repeatable 0.2-0.3pc growth in Q3. So if we strip those out, we get a whopping 0.2-0.3pc increase, not the headline 1.0pc that everyone is celebrating.
So far, so good.
Here's what they don't tell you:
1. The largest contributor to GDP growth was government spending…….with borrowed money, which indicates how flawed the GDP calculation is in the first place. The Government does not possess resources of its own. The government doesn't create wealth, it misallocates it, creating politically connected winners and not so well connected losers in the process. Every penny it spends must be taken from the private sector, one way or the other, or borrowed. Where's the organic growth in that?
2. The net national income per capita is DOWN, but it gets no mention in the press. We're growing, just because we're growing through unsustainable debt. Not as many of us are employed, and those who are (on average) are earning less (that's what a shift to part-time jobs will do), all expenses related to a families daily sustenance are significantly up but services output rose by 1.3pc. Lovely. Who are you going to believe, your government that protects you or your lying eyes?
3. GDP should be stated on a per capita basis. The way the number is reported today makes no allowance for population growth. In other words, it takes advantage of increased economic activity through the increased number of consumers but makes no allowance that the growth and wealth created is now distributed among a higher number of people. With UK's population growth and inflow of immigrants, the GDP number reported is flattered. We're all getting poorer on our way to getting wealthy.
And now the MOST important piece of deception you'll hear little about: the GDP deflator:
4. The data collected for the GDP calculation is "stripped" of the impact of inflation in order to measure the real or volume numbers. The GDP deflator ONS uses is several magnitudes smaller than REAL inflation. In other words, they are not stripping ALL of the effects of inflation, but rather allow inflation to be included and reported as growth. If you apply a GDP deflator even remotely close to reality, GDP growth is NEGATIVE.
In fact, let's take this a step further. Even if one accepts ONS's own cooked GDP deflator number, it still has been exposed to statistical shenanigans so it overestimates growth. There's been a switch from using RPI as the basis for the deflator number to CPI which yields lower inflation numbers, sometimes by a significant margin. The result is to artificially produce a HIGHER growth measure. But it doesn't stop there. The CPI calculation methods have been changed (and more changes are on the table) in an ongoing effort to suppress the true level of inflation. So over time, because the methodology keeps changing, the same conditions, but with inflation measured artificially lower, results in reporting higher economic growth. We're growing without actually growing. It's an illusion of growth, not real growth. It's all lying through manipulating numbers and another way of deceiving the unaware public.
You want to know how dire things are, just listen to Sir. Mervyn King's speech yesterday. Pay attention to the precise words he uses and perhaps even more importantly to the somber tone he delivers his message. There can be no recovery as long as the banks are not reformed. I think I heard that before somewhere.
Tiresome though it may be to some I repeat. Is Menelaus apparently the only qualified economic analyst to see and understand all these shortcomings in the figures being presented ? None of the senior economists of the world's leading financial insitutions,the major multinational corporations,the hedge funds, the major universties, the major independent economic think tanks, the IMf, the world bank etc etc ? Are all these factors not being discussed at length by all these experts ?. Does not the market as a whole know and absorb them appropriately ? I have read many times that pretty much all serious recessions in history have been preceded by a credit bubble, and as we also know full recoveries have been made in due course, whaetver the monetary system that was in place at the time This is not a new economic as Menelaus would apparently want us to believe it is. The bs continues on both sides of the political spectrum. So what's new about that. My lying eyes, which Menelaus refers to, show that matters today are a slight improvement on matters from yesterday. That is all I care about, No more no less . I'm going about my business slightly increasingly more confident every day that we are not on an irreversible downward slide to total world economic meltdown, as Menelaus predicts. Can I back this up in the technical manner that Menelaus does on his opinion. No I can't, but there are any proxies out there who can do that on my behalf. I choose to follow and believe in that contrary positive path. My prerogative surely ? Am I therefore the biggest fool in the room ? Menelaus would undoubtedly say so. But perhaps more would not say so. The market is certainly apparently more on my side currently.
Tiresome though it may be to some I repeat.Is Menelaus apparently the only qualified economic analyst to see and understand all these shortcomings in the figures being presented ?None of the senior economists of the world's leading financial insituti
Oh STFU, you annoying clown. I've had just about enough of you drowning my posts with your nonsense every time I put something up.
If you don't like what I post either ignore it or refute it.
Enough of this "others" don't agree with Melly sh1t.
Post IN YOUR OWN WORDS, WHO these OTHERS are that you so revere, WHAT precisely are they saying, HOW have they reached their conclusions, WHAT data supports their thesis and most importantly WHY should anyone believe them.
Show me that you have a clue of understanding ANYTHING at all instead of continuing to trash everything I post here by mere.....NOISE.
You personify the massively ignorant, the utterly clueless, the totally incapable of putting together an original thought but most importantly you continue to demonstrate a contemptibly repugnant obsession of trying to destroy anything that gets posted here that is clearly way beyond your intellect or ability to understand.
Oh STFU, you annoying clown. I've had just about enough of you drowning my posts with your nonsense every time I put something up.If you don't like what I post either ignore it or refute it. Enough of this "others" don't agree with Melly sh1t.Post IN
I had to unblock you so I could dissect that abortion you posted. Don't get your hopes up, I have no intention of continuing this madness with you, no one ever won an argument debating with a sign post and neither will I. I simply request that you either ignore or refute my posts instead of your current obsession of drowning them with.....NOISE. I'd be more than happy to stop posting all together on here if you wish so we can end this charade.
Here it goes:
Tiresome though it may be to some I repeat.
That's all you have done on here for years, repeat drivel and say nothing, so I'm not surprised you're about to "repeat " yet again. Yes, very tiresome indeed.
Is Menelaus apparently the only qualified economic analyst to see and understand all these shortcomings in the figures being presented ?
No, some like me speak out, others that are beholden to the system do not. Most economists work for the financial sector, or central banks, or the government, or educational institutions. Do you want to know who they support with their published views? Just follow the money.
None of the senior economists of the world's leading financial insitutions,the major multinational corporations,the hedge funds, the major universties, the major independent economic think tanks, the IMf, the world bank etc etc ?
Same as above……but usually all "opinions" published by economists involved with or beholden to the money cartel come with the prerequisite "THESE DO NOT REFLECT THE VIEWS OF - - - -" (Fill in the blanks, IMF, World Bank, BoE, ECB, etc.)
Are all these factors not being discussed at length by all these experts ?
What "factors" precisely are you referring to, who are these "experts"? Some economists have been invited to provide feedback in a consultative process on how inflation is calculated by the ONS. The changes proposed are again designed to underestimate inflation. You'd know that if on occasion you put down your comic books and came around to visit the halls of the LSE and speak to people who follow this stuff.
Does not the market as a whole know and absorb them appropriately ?
What "market" are you referring to? There is no market, just the illusion of one and one that evidently you wholeheartedly seem to continue to buy in. There can be no free market without risk, and the central banks have removed risk. Hence, there's no free market. Try and wrap your head around that.
I have read many times that pretty much all serious recessions in history have been preceded by a credit bubble, and as we also know full recoveries have been made in due course, whaetver the monetary system that was in place at the time
The question you should be asking is not what monetary system was in place at the time but rather how many unregulated naked derivative plays existed at the time, how intertwined was the financial system at the time, what was the global sovereign and private debt load at the time, and certainly more importantly, what the EROEI of OIL was at the time. You're still asleep what really defines today's crisis. I wish I was surprised.
This is not a new economic as Menelaus would apparently want us to believe it is.
A "new economic"? WTF is that? All Menelaus is trying to do is open your eyes, not turn economics on its head. This is simple stuff, it's those who want to confuse you and hide the truth from you that intentionally make today's finance utterly complicated.
The bs continues on both sides of the political spectrum. So what's new about that.
WTF? Who gives a sh1t about the political spectrum. There's no politician or central banker that can stop this unravelling. The greatest shortcoming of the human race is understanding the power of exponents said Dr. Bartlett. I don't think you've been able to process in your bird brain that infinite and exponential growth needed to prevent the money system from collapsing is not possible on a planet with finite resources. Layer on top of that an OIL EROEI curve that hitting the steep end and you may be able to figure out that we are like bacteria bumping up against the edge of the petri dish.
My lying eyes, which Menelaus refers to, show that matters today are a slight improvement on matters from yesterday. That is all I care about, No more no less .
I don't think you read what I wrote or more than likely didn't understand what I wrote. The "slight improvement" is fiction, a sleight of hand, to continue to con those who can not think for themselves that "everything is okay". You deserve what you have coming, all fools do.
I'm going about my business slightly increasingly more confident every day that we are not on an irreversible downward slide to total world economic meltdown, as Menelaus predicts.
What business is that? I though you posted you are retired enjoying the remaining days of your life as an expat and leaving financial decisions to your "financial advisers". If you're going to make this sh1t up as you go along, at least be consistent. All you are doing is simply confirming that you have swallowed all the lies hook, line and sinker. I was in the covert government propaganda business once, the TPTB are doing it because……it works.
Can I back this up in the technical manner that Menelaus does on his opinion. No I can't, but there are any proxies out there who can do that on my behalf. I choose to follow and believe in that contrary positive path. My prerogative surely ?
It's true, stupidity is anyone's prerogative. Name those "proxies", WHO are they, WHO funds them, HOW impartial are their views, WHAT exactly are they saying, WHAT is their thesis based on, WHAT data or analysis supports that thesis, WHY should anyone believe them. Use the two functioning brain cells God gifted you with and THINK FOR YOURSELF.
Am I therefore the biggest fool in the room ?
Surely, I don't need to answer that.
Menelaus would undoubtedly say so.
No sh1t
But perhaps more would not say so.
I wouldn't bet too much money on that but then again STOP relying on others to THINK FOR YOU. Figure it out on your own otherwise all you are demonstrating is stupidity and conformation bias.
The market is certainly apparently more on my side currently.
What f/king market are you referring to, the one the FED owns or the one you have the illusion you are participating in ?
Stop posting noise FFS. Demonstrate just one time that YOU do the thinking for yourself, not "proxies". Show me you're not a sheep being led to the slaughter. Show me even a hint of ability to REASON instead of posting thrash on here incessantly. Show me that you even deserve to be reading a financial forum, let alone commenting on it.
I have a feeling it will be a long wait.
BTW, the so called "market" that agrees with you just puked all over your good news.
I had to unblock you so I could dissect that abortion you posted. Don't get your hopes up, I have no intention of continuing this madness with you, no one ever won an argument debating with a sign post and neither will I. I simply request that you ei
It seems to my " bird brain " that like all the arguments against global warming, all your " noise" is fixated on the claim that there is no real independent ---- research ( fill in the blanks economic, scientific, medical etc) that is not funded by vested interests such as ( fill in the blanks, governments, banking cartels, oil companies, drug companies etc). Why are not the " smart " people you refer to in the halls of the LSE , and presumably the halls of all other major educational institutions around the world, not making themselves heard loudely and vociferously on all this. Why aren't they all posting on the internet like you in such volume that their views must be taken seriously and, perhaps more importantly, must start to resonate with all the " bird brains" of the world. Where and why exactly is all this opinion base that you claim supports your arguments hiding out ? What do they fear from speaking out agressively ? Why is the majority of the world's populace apparently " sheep being led to the slaughter" and are not listening to the real truth, which you and few others claim to be revealing. Is your definition of a sheep in fact merely " those who does not understand and agree with all my arguments ". Why should I , or anybody else, believe your arguments any more than anybody else's, who purports to have an economic degree and can string a reasonable sounding technical argument together. If I and most others to you do not apparently have the critical thinking " matter" necessary to decipher all this stuff, why should we be able to see the truth in your " independent, unbeholden " noise any more than in the " controlled, beholden " noise of others. How and exactly why should we decide that you are our potential saviour in all this, when in fact according to you we don't even know we need saving.
It seems to my " bird brain " that like all the arguments against global warming, all your " noise" is fixated on the claim that there is no real independent ---- research ( fill in the blanks economic, scientific, medical etc) that is not funded by
And yes I did retire on my ill gained, " lucky " money rewards many years ago, and continue to live the life of riley in various sunny climes. " Going about my business" was just a turn of phrase to describe my getting out of bed everyday and living normally, and not getting a rope and going out to hang myself, as you seem to be suggesting that I and many others should consider doing. Seems to me that is really what you are proposing to us mass of " non -thinking economic illiterates " out there. Irregardless of the fact that we all probably contribute ( or at least in my case have contributed) far more meaningfully to society that a bunch of merger advisors like you will ever do.
And yes I did retire on my ill gained, " lucky " money rewards many years ago, and continue to live the life of riley in various sunny climes." Going about my business" was just a turn of phrase to describe my getting out of bed everyday and living n
Like I said, no one ever won a debate with a sign post.
Actually there's a good chance the sign post would have figured it out on his own by now, especially with all the help for you I keep posting on here.
I'll leave you with one final thought. I know you don't have what it takes to figure this stuff out on your own, you don't have to be an economist to figure that out. Years of posting on here without putting up anything of substance is hard to hide. But that's okay, you're not in the minority, most people in this dumbed down society we now live in don't either. It's much easier to rely on "proxies" to figure things out for you, mush easier to be distracted by X-Factor and the like, much easier to dig your head in the sand and hope everything works out. All that I undertsand. It's your character and integrity you need to work on because *that* you don't need intelligence nor a formal education to display. Some things should not be "sold out" at any price. Sadly you let yourself down for a mere pittance.
Like I said, no one ever won a debate with a sign post.Actually there's a good chance the sign post would have figured it out on his own by now, especially with all the help for you I keep posting on here.I'll leave you with one final thought. I know
Not much of a reply to end on. But I agree let's leave it at that. No point either of us flogging a dead horse. I hope I'm right and you're wrong. Not for the selfish point of winning any argument, but for the sake of the world. If you're right, then we are indeed in for very hard and turbulent times ahead. One final word of advice, why don't you try just being a smidgen more respectful to others, even those you view as both your intellectual and moral inferiors. You might just find that your views in turn might become a little more respected in return by all and sundry. After all it is your basic altruistic intent to save us all from ourselves isn't it ?
Not much of a reply to end on.But I agree let's leave it at that.No point either of us flogging a dead horse.I hope I'm right and you're wrong.Not for the selfish point of winning any argument, but for the sake of the world.If you're right, then we a