Tradefair & Financials

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16 Jul 12 09:18
Date Joined: 02 Jul 09
| Topic/replies: 25,595 | Blogger: MONEY TREE's blog
Trying to get away from gold, and mining stocks. Looking for 3 types of investment.

high risk lower cost
lower risk
and best investment for a newborn baby.
Pause Switch to Standard View What do you think is the best...
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Report polybot July 16, 2012 11:02 AM BST
short term calls on a dip
5 (approx.) percent term deposit
buy or move to a better area and with a decent sized garden
Report Eeternaloptimist July 16, 2012 11:35 AM BST
Best investment for a baby is love, example and security. The rest will take care of itself.
Report carlos monzon July 17, 2012 6:55 PM BST
How much money r u willing to spend.

I have some fantastic options. Wish I had not invested in property tbh.

I'll put a few up for u in a second
Report carlos monzon July 17, 2012 7:04 PM BST
If I had say 15k to invest this is how I would do it.

3k on USA to win most medals at 4/9 at boylessport. Betfred were going 8/11 10 days ago.

China to win most gold medals at 6/4 £400 on it.

I'll put up a few more bets up in a minute
Report Eeternaloptimist July 17, 2012 7:06 PM BST

That doesn't make sense. Why would you advise a bet at 4/9 which could have been had at 8/11 ten days ago? If the ship has sailed there is no point wading into the water after it.
Report carlos monzon July 17, 2012 7:18 PM BST
No no matey.

All bookies had it between 8/11 and 8/15.

Now all bookies have it 4/9 and 1/4.

Actualy looking back at it u will not be able to 3k on it not with boyles.

Change that to £500 max. And u will be lucky if boyles alow u that
Report carlos monzon July 17, 2012 7:28 PM BST
11k on gb to get 24 or less gold medals gives u a profit of £6769.18 if backed at corals at 8/13 which is available at the moment.

Here's the cover: ladbrokes

team gb to get 25-27 at 4/1.   Place £2800 on it.
Report carlos monzon July 17, 2012 7:34 PM BST
If ur worried u can take 28-30 at 6/1 laddies.

Prices yesterday at laddies were 6/1 25-27 gold for team gb.

28-30 was 9/1.

There is noway on planet earth team gb will win 31 gold medals. No chance
Report carlos monzon July 17, 2012 7:38 PM BST
Rebbecca adlington to win 800 meter freestyle gold 1/2

ben ainslee to win gold in sailing 4/7.

Both at corals
Report carlos monzon July 17, 2012 7:55 PM BST
Mo farah to win 10000 meters 6/4.

Minimal stakes.

There is no way on team gb will get as many golds as the markets have suggested.

If u take 24 or under and 25-27 medals (laddies)I'm 100% sure u will be able to cover it inrunning as more bookies will do 28-30 hence get a better price.

Right now only laddies r doing it.

It's amoungst the best bets of the year this.

Personaly speaking I dnt think any bookies will do 28-30 in running as after a few days they will realise that's a near impossible but if they r getting alot of medals then I'm sure that Market will be available.

I just can't see over 27 medals which is a max for team gb. Here's y.

Team gb will have added presure.

7 gold in cycling will be reduced to 4 and under at 2012.

Rebecaa addlington should win 1gold at 800 meters and a possible medal at 400 freestyle.

Chris origarah will not win womens 400 meter gold. No chance.

I think they will probs get 1less gold in the rowing but I'm not sure. Germans, French and few other nations will be stronger than ever in these rowing events. 

Australia should top cycling golds.

So the 19 golds won in 2008 will not be easy to surpass.

Team gb r stronger in the sailing than 2008.

Much stronger in atheletics than 2008.

Better team in general than the2008 team but that dnt guarntee medals does it
Report Eeternaloptimist July 17, 2012 7:59 PM BST

I've known many a good judge losing money betting because they didn't take into consideration the concept of value. Take this USA bet as an example. Has anything happened in the last 11 days to make them more likely to win most medals? My guess is no. The fact that weight of money has forced a contraction in price is irrelevant to that issue. It no longer represents value as a bet unless you think that the chance of the bet coming in is shorter than the best price now on offer. Even then you've still lost money on the chance you had 11 days ago.
Report Whippet July 17, 2012 8:16 PM BST
if you're going to waste your money gambling you should at least go down the bookies; you get a free cup of tea whilst you're there. Laugh
Report Eeternaloptimist July 17, 2012 8:26 PM BST
And it's warm. Oh and the company and sense of bonhomie.......LaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaugh
Report carlos monzon July 17, 2012 9:15 PM BST
I agree totaly eo, the value has gone.

But betting is the type of investment u dnt know weather uv invested rightly or wrongly till after the event.

Eg in may haye was 8/15 v chisora at nearly every bookie. Now that to me is a cracking bet not because haye should win but rather the price will go down.

Here's the break down u back haye for 1k at 8/15 which is abt 1.54 in decimal betting (betfair odds). Now that same bet hate was as low as 1.26. That's 28p a pound uv made on betfair. So u lay at 1.26 right.

Now if u stake 1k uv made £280 if haye wins £266 after betfair deductions, and if chisora wins u break even.

Khan was available at 2/7 at hills wen odds came out. Another cracking bet as theopone should have won via decsion and a few other debateable decsions on top of that.

Again say 1k is invested at 1.28 khan. The lay before the fight was 1.15. So u make £130 on khan if he wins break even if he loses, u get me.

On a normal day u would have made £400 from a 2k investment over say a month

that's 23% return in 1 month with no chance of losing the full 2k.

In betting terms u can make money in the feild of gambling without gambling
Report carlos monzon July 17, 2012 9:21 PM BST
Here's an example of summit u can do maybe in the future:

just say mayweather v pacman was announced tommorow. Mayweather is available at 8/15 right now. All u gotta do is back him for a 1k which is abt the 1.54sh. The lay is banged on at 1.4 so u make £140 for a 1k investment and break even if pacman wins.

Of course u could put ur profit on the underdogs if u like.

As u would have made a killing in the khan fight.
Report carlos monzon July 17, 2012 9:28 PM BST
Gambling is experience.

U see the bet iv put up the olympics about team gb, it's summit u should follow in the olympics day by day medal by medal and then I'm sure u will understand. Check in running prices and summit that changes like 15pto the pound must be taken straightaway without any hesitation. Infact u should have ur prices already in there.
Report Eeternaloptimist July 17, 2012 9:29 PM BST

I agree. There is nothing wrong with trading when you see the value and you have a low risk but the possibility of a good return. Had you backed the USA at 8/11 then a trade at 4/9 makes sense and you can lock in a profit. I'm struggling to see the juice in backing them now straight out at 4/9.
Report carlos monzon July 17, 2012 9:32 PM BST
Well I agree, I backed em at 8/11 and said on a thread it should be backed on the Olympic section. Yet all they said was give me ur reasoning etc etc. So I left it
Report carlos monzon July 17, 2012 9:50 PM BST
carlos monzon     21 Jun 12 14:16  
China to win most gold medals was 2/1sh last week.

I make them 2/5 and have no doubt that a tradeout is banged on.

Personaly I'd be suprised if tge USA outdone em.

Also try and lay gb at over 26.5 goldmedals and under 64.5 at 8/13.

USA might win the overall medal count and that's wat they going for.

Also very interested in the boxing tickets. Would love to see lomchenko box in the early rounds if. Possible. Ino the semi and finals are gona be nearly impossible if a Brit gets to the final

U see wat I mean eo. Only a month ago the Market was over and under 26.5 golds at corals.
Report bongo July 17, 2012 9:51 PM BST
Just been fiddling with some numbers for Gold Medals won by the different host countries back to the 1988 Olympics.
Haven't gone back beyond that as the previous three Olympics were affected by Sir Geoffrey to a greater or lesser degree.
Here's the table:
    Seoul    Barca    AtlantisSydney    Athens    Peking
    1988    1992    1996    2000    2004    2008
USA    36    37    44    37    35    36
S Korea    12    12    7    8    9    13
China    5    16    16    28    32    51
GB&NI    5    5    1    11    9    19
Austral    3    7    9    16    17    14
Spain    1    13    5    3    3    5
Greece    0    2    4    4    6    0

And the averages for each country excluding the ones where they had home advantage:
USA    36.2
S Korea    9.8
China    19.4
GB&NI    8.3
Austral    10.0
Spain    3.4
Greece    2.0

Observations: the average improvement in number of Golds when at home compared to the other 5 Olympiads was 10.2.
Adding that to the GB&NI average of the last six Olympiads of 8.3 gives an expected tally of 18.5 for the home side.
The other interesting stat is that 2 of the last 6 hosts, S Korea and Australia did NOT get their best tally in their home games, and these 2 are the most similar to GB&NI in terms of long term Olympic sporting stature.

A well known bookie is offering 9/4 about what then should be an estimated *2/1* chance about GB&NI failing to exceed 19 gold medals.
*2/1* - this needs finessing a little as the number of medals has increased over time, however the sport we do best in ( cycling ) has reduced the number on offer. 2008 was a little top heavy with golds for GB&NI too and you could question whether London being such an international city it will feel like home for the provincials.

Enjoy the action whatever you do - but don't treat winning money on it too seriously.
Report carlos monzon July 17, 2012 10:00 PM BST
Under 26.5 was 4/6.

I'm not saying the bets iv put up will win. They might all lose.

But I swear by the grace of god the trade out will come. I'm 100% sure of it.

U see the bookies went on team gbs target when infact the Market should have been made by the chances of of atheletes going for gold.

Here's my research:

team gb have a realistic chance of 42 golds.

From research I predict they will win 21 golds.

My predication is they will win between 18-23 gold.

Opinion based on my research says between 55-65 medals.

Between 15-20 silvers

17-23 bronze.

Add them all up and I say it's 59 or 60 total medals for team gb
Report unitedbiscuits July 17, 2012 10:14 PM BST
Buy Apple.
Report unitedbiscuits July 17, 2012 10:15 PM BST
$607 right now.
Report carlos monzon July 17, 2012 10:17 PM BST
Well done bongo.

UNO how to do ur research. Although I looked at this type of research but found it slightly out.

This is y. U see every games is different. Situations are different, the way funding is used is different.

U see 1 reason china did well in 2008 is the funding. Not the amount of it but how they used it. They were very clever about it, targeting sh1ty events etc etc. Money was very well spent.

Now team gb have Been very clever about wat sports they target etc etc which is y the got 19 golds last time out.

But cycling rules have changed in the last couple of years which will be bad news for team gb.

Alot of uk funding has been skanked. How do ino this. My gym got a grant of 500k. Lolol. I mean y on earth did they give us 500k wen we dnt even have an olympian.

By the wayr 250k went in his back pocket. How many times has this happened over the last 4 years. Quite alot I believe.

Plastic Britons is a good strategy. But it will only get 5 more golds max IMO.

U can bet ur bottom dollar china invested properly with very little skanks compared to gb.

Judging by the performace of gb in relevant competitions there is no way team gb will exceed 30 golds. Noway. Not IMO. If they do I'll come on here and call myself a great idiot.

So anything under 31 golds and ur in profit. Dats wat it's all about.

Must say that 4/6 on under 26.5 at corals was a cracker of a bet. With laddies offering 9/1 for 28-30 golds.

Truly amazing value.

Can't believe mayweather not to fight khan was available at 1/2 by 31 december 2012.

Think he will get his sences by October. So 3 months for promotion and training.

Again impossible. It's the best 1/2 ul ever see.

Hills have taken the Market down.
Report carlos monzon July 18, 2012 9:03 PM BST
Steve Redgrave to light the flame at 4/6 skybet. Sky r limiting stake to £30 on this bet
Report carlos monzon July 18, 2012 9:11 PM BST
Australia to get over 11.5 golds at 4/6 paddy power
Report carlos monzon July 18, 2012 9:15 PM BST
China over 35.5 gold 5/6 paddypower
Report carlos monzon July 18, 2012 9:17 PM BST
Germany over 15.5 golds at 5/6
Report Eeternaloptimist July 19, 2012 2:18 PM BST
Being serious for a moment the key to life is humour. If you can find the fun amongst the dross then you are on to a winner. If I were you I'd invest a mere £125 and go and see a real comedian at the LSE. You'll have to rush though because the tickets are selling like hot cakes.
Report carlos monzon July 19, 2012 7:00 PM BST
I think humour is the best way in this day and age as doom and gloom is everywhere
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