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15 Jul 12 22:27
Date Joined: 03 Feb 05
| Topic/replies: 6,745 | Blogger: Menelaus's blog
This is AEP's latest piece:

Fed fiddles as America slides back into recession

He sold out.

It's the price you pay to attend Davos. You have to worship at the shrine of the money cartel, the altar of money printing and believe in it's powers to rid all evils.

I always knew he was a light weight when it came to economics, but didn't catch on until we had a private conversation about a year ago that he joined the certifiably insane. Perhaps it's because he is ignorant of the power of exponents and deduces that upping the dose of the medicine that's killing the patient is the only way to cure the patient. In other words, a fool, an idiot, a massive ignoramus.

First the factual mistakes:

1. monetary stimulus "set off a blistering recovery in 1933" - That's just plain ignorant of history. No point in belaboring this point, the facts are there for all to see. Do your own research and draw your own conclusions. Unemployment in the great depression didn't peak until 1934, and growth remained negative or at least threading water until WWII. So much for a "blistering recovery" that needed a world war to been seen 12 years later.

2. "the China effect pushed oil to $147 a barrel" - This mistake is more obscure than the first but certainly no excuse for an economist who gets published in a major UK newspaper with a strong economic staff on board. Oil didn't go to $147 because of the "china effect", nor because supply was constrained, nor because of money printing. Oil went to $147 because Goldman Sacks bankrupted Semgroup. They had knowledge of their trading positions through their vetting of a private deal with Merrill Lynch. The case is still in front of the US courts and Kivisto refused to accept a large settlement. He expects to get most of his claim of damages satisfied and I'm inclined to agree. Research it.

The rest is the same Keynesian drivel. Low interest rates are never lowered fast enough and never low enough, money printing is not ever enough, just one more hit of morphine will do the trick, supply drives demand, not the other way around, blah blah blah. Rubbish.

The usual naive and misguided delusion that infinite growth can be accomplished for ever, on a planet with limited resources. Ambrose needs a lesson in basic mathematics so he can understand the power on exponents and how a ponzi collapses as a mathematical certainty and how EROI works. All the deductive powers in the world wouldn't help him with that, plain arithmetic would.

The mighty power of the money printers is coming apart at the seams and it's not the clueless lemmings awakening that causing it. It's geology ad flow rates. Who knew?
Pause Switch to Standard View wipeout, this is what I was talking...
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Report FINE AS FROG HAIR July 15, 2012 11:12 PM BST
Sold out exactly to whom ?.
What's his payback here ?
A loss of reputation and respect by his pure economist peers to be compensated by what ?.
What's the motivation of anybody to hide any clear and unambiguous truths here ?
Short term gains to be followed by a world that will become a wasteland if Menelaus' prognosis proves true.
Where's the common sense in all that ? In fact where's any sense in all that paranoia.
I'm willing to believe the believable just like any other sane person is.
What Menelaus presents as being a clearcut conclusion of inevitable collapse does not stand up to any sort of logical analysis.
There are far too many independent thinkers in the world who are not seemingly joining in Menelaus' chorus of outrage against the small group of powerful bankers and their bought off politicians, who are apparently corruptly managing the whole world economy in their own self-interests.
Where's the proof of all this ?
Does Menelaus think all alternative interpretations of hard economic data are unconditionally wrong and, ipso facto, this means that all debate has been compromised and that this is the proof that the world is being totally manipulated by a few against the good of all common mankind.
Come on.
Report FINE AS FROG HAIR July 15, 2012 11:17 PM BST
There's a school for this type of thinking by Menelaus.
It used to be located in Bedlam in the old days.
Report Eeternaloptimist July 15, 2012 11:50 PM BST
First the factual mistakes:

1. monetary stimulus "set off a blistering recovery in 1933" - That's just plain ignorant of history. No point in belaboring this point, the facts are there for all to see. Do your own research and draw your own conclusions. Unemployment in the great depression didn't peak until 1934, and growth remained negative or at least threading water until WWII. So much for a "blistering recovery" that needed a world war to been seen 12 years later.

Actually Melly I think you will find that you have made a factual mistake of your own there. Growth neither remained negative or treading water until the war. What happened is exactly what happened in this country when Gordon Brown hit us with a sugar rush. There was a recovery to the extent that by 1936/37 they were so sure of the recovery being entrenched that they reduced the stimulus. At which point America went straight back into recession. You are correct about genuine recovery not coming until war arrived. What is also often forgotten is that immediately after the war America went straight back into slump for several more years.

People like Paul Krugman and others fail to learn a simple lesson from the depression. It is perfectly possible to draw forward that which belongs in and to the future to use today but at some point that has to be unwound. As one Congressman said in the late 30's they found thmselves in a very similar position to that which they were in a decade ago with the difference being that they had added a great pile of debt. Such people are on a rolling loop which always says too far and too fast or not far enough and not long enough. Balls is now saying one in relation to our economy despite us running huge deficits and Krugman has said the latter for the best part of 20 years about Japan despite four different stimulus packages which when removed result in return to slump.

Funny old world.
Report FINE AS FROG HAIR July 16, 2012 12:46 AM BST
Do you have any answer to my basic query as to why and how free thinking trained economists would sell out and start to " worship the shrine of the money cartel ".
Apart from just getting some extra monies for themselves that is, which is just too poor a reason for me to consider, in isolation at least.
I'm struggling here with this one.
Someone please help this poor innocent out.
Report Menelaus July 16, 2012 5:56 AM BST
@ the all fluff and no substance chap

Feck man, I'll have to give you your props, you made a whole bunch of nonsense almost sound like you knew what you were talking about there.


I'm on my way to Zurich for a brief meeting and back. In the meantime, here's your open book test/assignment, to help you understand that economics is a science not a romance novel.

POST the empirical evidence that supports your statements and it's source. If you don't know which statements among all the fluff you posted I mean, let me be precise. Explain exactly WHAT data they looked at (post the numbers or charts and where they came from) that convinced them that recovery was taking hold. Surely they didn't just deduce that or pull it out of their a$$. Then again, perhaps they did Wink

I'll be back later to mark your paper.

P.S. Please stop the carlos charade. I enjoy slapping you on the face with a dead fish, because you're so stupid. But when you become so pathetic it makes me feel guilty. Sad
Report FINE AS FROG HAIR July 16, 2012 7:49 AM BST
And over to EO. I trust either you or AEP do know your history of economics. Even stuff that happened over half a century ago.
Or are you also off to somewhere important like Zurich for a brief, but critical meeting that cannot be handled by video phone or the internet.
Must be top security stuff that general encryption techniques cannot protect.
You know the future of the world maybe ? Or at least the EU.
I'm keeping my legs crossed that he is successful and saves us all at this last moment.
Travel safe Menelaus and let us know immediately you are back and available to the forum again.
Report Eeternaloptimist July 16, 2012 11:38 AM BST
I'd answer his questions but his outrage and attempts at spontaneous combustion when I don't is a joy to behold.
Report Eeternaloptimist July 16, 2012 11:42 AM BST

An honest answer to your question is that nobody ever thinks they are selling out in anything. Most of us have a need to be accepted and loved on some level. In your chosen field you value validation by your peers and if the crowd is rushing towards a cliff it must be really difficult to be the one to say, "hang on a minute fellas". Conversely nobody really wants to be ridiculed. Even Melly. I can't help thinking that all his references to his high flying life is either a cry for help or a piss take. Problem is we know he doesn't do humour.
Report carlos monzon July 16, 2012 9:01 PM BST
At wat point did the american government rob it's people of the very little wealth they had. Think it was some point in the 30s
Report Menelaus July 16, 2012 9:25 PM BST
Ooops, you failed another open book exam, and I gave you all friggin day. 

I guess they didn't cover that part in the romantic novel you read about the great depression.

I would have gone a lot easier on you if you'd just stated from the outset that you belong to the Harlequin School of Economics.

P.S. To be fair, I should have explained what "empirical evidence" means but I figured you'd google it.
Report Eeternaloptimist July 16, 2012 10:21 PM BST
You really don't understand what a fool you look do you?
Report FINE AS FROG HAIR July 16, 2012 10:51 PM BST
I presume AEP must have read the same romantic novel then ?
Great minds eh EO ?
Report Menelaus July 17, 2012 6:44 AM BST
Eeternaloptimist 16 Jul 12 22:21 
You really don't understand what a fool you look do you?

I love the smell of sweet irony in the morning.


You made a claim. I said prove it.

********************* crickets chirping *********************

Except the white space numbskull, you know, the X-Factor authority, who's still seething I took his voice away Cry

Stick to reading magazines and playacting your carlos fantasies on these forums. Commenting on economics is not your strength.
Report FINE AS FROG HAIR July 17, 2012 7:26 AM BST
My voice is fine.
It's Menelaus' hearing that's gone awry.
I think it is probably a habit he's had for a very long time. Not listening to anything that doesn't fit into his grand scheme of things.
I'm actually surprised that he even felt the need to get an economics degree. I mean what could he possibly learn from any others.
Report FINE AS FROG HAIR July 17, 2012 7:41 AM BST
And I've even got a new hint for Menelaus if he ever really wants to know what I'm pointing out to others on here.
Just ask Simon.
Report FINE AS FROG HAIR July 17, 2012 7:46 AM BST
You know my new best buddy, as so kindly designated to me by Menelaus.
All good.
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