I'm looking for a tsunami.

Apparently they do them in inflation as well as water now. I think somebody is trying to extend the brand.

It's time you give up because your are starting to sound and behave like a complete lunatic. So you thought you were a "big" man because you are the tallest Lilliputian. Then you looked up………..and you're still in shock.

You went way back and found some posts of mine, lifted specific lines that suit you while ignoring countless others, and now you are throwing temper tantrums because I'm not taking the bait.

What I said was that the inflation was are seeing now, which is multiples higher than what's officially reported by the government (even though clearly you don't even know how they actually come up with that number), is leakage. Driven by speculation into commodities with money the CBs handed over to the banks in exchange for worthless paper. The tsunami of inflation is still sitting with bank excess reserves on the CBs balance sheets, which they can't rein in when they have to because they can't raise interest rates without governments, and just about everyone else blowing up. You know when Bernanke said he can rein in inflation in 15 minutes, well, he lied.

You're in way over your head. Your knowledge in the area where I make my living is anecdotal. It shows, despite the colorful language and the never ending parade of strawmen. You are probably a retired school teacher, who reads this stuff without the background and tools to understand it, and who wonders where it all went wrong when you can't even afford to take a short trip to London to learn something new. You are no barrister either because when I laid down the test of the reasonable man, which is a well established legal principle, it went right over your head.

There are Gullivers out there. Get over it.

I didn't have to go way back. I just went to the hyperinflation thread and quoted you to avoid you making accusations. It was a specific point you made that there would be a tsunami of inflation within 3-6 months. The tsunami was guaranteed by you.

Now I'm a fair and honest man and as I have indicated previously I think there is a good chance that the argument and reasons given in your third paragraph may come to fruition. Which is why I have hedged my bets as I have previously indicated as I believe any sensible man would.

All I'm asking is whether your prediction was incorrect and whether you now accept you were wrong?

Didn't your basic psy-ops teach you about the cycle of grieving? You seem to be oscillating between denial and anger. It does happen. Stick with me kid. I'll get you through.

melly- come on. That is one of your most absurd posts yet.Talk about desperate.

'What I said was that the inflation was are seeing now, which is multiples higher than what's officially reported by the government (even though clearly you don't even know how they actually come up with that number), is leakage. "

oh yeah trot out the ols conspiracy theory.Problem is when inflation hit 4,5% you were crowing about how "high" inflation was and "see I was right,hyperinflation is nigh", thus taking the numbers as being "right" Yet when those same number fall to a low 1.5- all of a sudden its a conspiracy and "they" are lying.

Ludicrious.  You could drive a truck thru your arguments and not touch the sides.


"The tsunami of inflation is still sitting with bank excess reserves on the CBs balance sheets,"


possibly the most desperate post ever.

"its hidden, no one can see it, just me the mighty melly"


"
You're in way over your head. Your knowledge in the area where I make my living is anecdotal."

I think most of us here are familiar with how the welfare system works.

"It's time you give up because your are starting to sound and behave like a complete lunatic. So you thought you were a "big" man because you are the tallest Lilliputian. Then you looked up………..and you're still in shock. "

another fruedian slip by you, this describes yourself to a T.

"The tsunami of inflation is still sitting with bank excess reserves on the CBs balance sheets,"

Just for a minute lets assume that Melly is right. Obviously this wasn't in the script but this tsunami of inflation didn't arise because it is sat on the balance sheets.

Which begs two questions:

Firstly. Why didn't he see that as a possibility at the time he was making his prediction? Surely his mathematical certainty formula would have looked at it and discounted it for a very specific reason. What reason or if he neglected to look at it what else might he have overlooked?

If it can be sat there a couple of years after Melly thought it would be washing over us is it inconceivable that it could still be sat there in another two years or five, ten etc?

Let me help you heal.

More than half a lifetime ago, I was recruited by the chaps in shinny armor to do some specific noble work in protecting Her Majesty the Queen's people from the evil doers. Only back in those days, the evil doers didn't speak Arabic, those spoke Slavic. That's where I got a crash course in everything to do in manipulating the mind. I learned about the works of Watson, Tolman, Maslow, Skinner, Kaplan and many others, and of course my personal favourite, the chap who got dogs to salivate at the sound of the bell without any food in sight, Pavlov.

It was all fun and games for a while trying to manipulate perceptions (unless you thought the "messages" broadcast by BBC World behind the iron curtain were written by some underpaid and disgruntled back room employee) but one morning I woke up an adult and came to realize that the line between the good guys and the evils doers was very blurred indeed. So I left and went on to do what I was destined to do, get a degree in Economics from the LSE. My experience and tenure in pay-ops was over but it was to come in handy many years later in taking to school mugs like you on public forums who fancy themselves smart. I threw four different persona at you, no wonder you were starting to behave like a lunatic, not knowing which shadow to chase first.

At the LSE, I learned about the Keynesians and the Austrians, the schools of economics you kept regurgitating on here and insisted in pigeon holing me in because in your simple mind there is a "white" box and a "black" box that everything must fit in, not realizing that in real life the predominant colour is grey. You kept calling me a Mises disciple. Friedman talked about the tendency of both the public and private sectors, more so the public, to waste capital. Mises talked about intervention in the markets in any manner, destroys the markets themselves and that misallocation of capital has an opportunity cost. Was Friedman a Mises disciple? All schools have some valid points, and none have all the answers. If you must know, If I absolutely positively have to be slotted into a school otherwise your world is meaningless, I'm a disciple of Selten and his school of behavioural economics. Someone who didn't even get a mention from you because he is not very mainstream and probably not covered in that article you read in your favourite magazine.

You are at Stage 3 (anger) of the healing process now. You need to reach Stage 7 (acceptance) to heal. And the sooner you get there, the better for you it will be. The harm is only in your mind. You are posting anonymously on a public forum. No one knows who the real person behind the moniker Eeternaloptimist really is, no one probably cares, certainly not I. Instead of lamenting how you could be so stupid to allow someone to manipulate and embarrass you like that, accept you made a mistake and move on. Make it a learning experience and make sure you don't fall in the same trap again in the future.

It's totally up to you.

Therein lies your problem. You learned so much so late that there wasn't time left to develop adaptability. You should have paid more attention in school.

Physician heal thyself.

By the way if you are using the 7 stage process of grief rather than the 5 then acceptance is accompanied by hope. Something you seem to have abandoned. Probably with good reason.

I think I saw something approaching a tsunami on the TV last immediately following the tennis. All those tears. Poor boy. For some reason it put me in mind of Melly on an average trading day.

from my limited understanding of tennis, that british bloke is a multi millionaire whether he wins  some game at wimbledon or not, it's only the gamblers or the truly pathetic bbc commentator types who could care less. melly on the other hand has a genuine reason to weep.

You slipped back into the Stage 1 (denial), regressing is actually very common. You have a long way to go until you heal, those who have big egos crushed usually take a lot longer. You are a bright guy, you'll figure it all out in the end.

We can finally fully agree on something. Your ego is going to take an interminable amount of time to recover. Always remember that the beginning of the rope breaking commences with the unravelling of the first strand. There was no tsunami. You are doomed and it will be a long way back.

When you have finally recovered try to hold this thought in mind:

A strong intellect knows that to strategically concede a piece to save the game isn't a sign of weakness.

By the way I'd repay the kind words but as yet your lack of flexibility badly hinders your intellect. You have promise because you can clearly absorb and store information. Try to hang onto my coat tails and I will take you to the next level of your intellectual development. Enlightenment is beautiful. You should look forward to it

I keep ringing the bell, and you keep salivating.

The problem with you is that I managed your emotions to such an extend, that you can't distinguish what's baiting you, and what's real.

Trust me mate, I never would have gone down this road if I knew you'd be mentally affected so much. I'm a mean b@stard, but I assure you I'm not *that* mean.









Wake up call:

How many times have you posted on this forum up until about a couple of months ago? (HINT: hardly ever to zero)

How many times have you posted since? (HINT: hundreds)

How many posts do you put up for every one that I do now? (HINT: I reckon at least 5 to 1 ratio)

What invisible force has changed your behaviour? (No hint on this one, if you can't figure this one out on your own, then you're dumber than I thought - no sarcasm this time).


Seriously mate, it's consuming you, you have to get over it.

You can run but you can't hide.

By the way there is no invisible force. I've destroyed several gobshiites over on the politics forum as well.

I have news for you. This isn't the politics forum, and I don't write or think in one syllable gibberish. The only thing I see getting destroyed here is your mind.......slowly but surely.........

.........while you are still soundly asleep.



Wake up call:

How many times have you posted on this forum up until about a couple of months ago? (HINT: hardly ever to zero)

How many times have you posted since? (HINT: hundreds)

How many posts do you put up for every one that I do now? (HINT: I reckon at least 5 to 1 ratio)

What invisible force has changed your behaviour? (No hint on this one, if you can't figure this one out on your own, then you're dumber than I thought - no sarcasm this time).

That was quick. I think you are getting the hang of this dancing lark. Who said you can't teach an old dog new tricks?

Knocking down that strawman must have felt good, eh?

Too bad you are not any less angry.

Didn't you once decry fluff and no substance?

You are collecting quite a resumee of nothing posts. I'll tell you what, if they ever make a book of the best forum posts they can devote a whole chapter to your invaluable efforts in the same way that a famous footballer once did to the football knowledge of chairmen.

It will amount to one blank page.

I always wondered why MP's in the commons wave their white papers anf shout more when their man has pasted his opposite number. Now I know.

You are collecting quite a resumee of nothing posts

I don't have the faintest what a "resumee" is but.......I love the smell of sweet irony in the morning.

and you have'nt the faintest about anything else either.Dumb shilt.

EO
As you have seemingly assumed the ( much needed and about time) counterpoint role to Menelaus' kneecapping of any and all reasonable questioners/hyperinflation doubters on here, I would now like to ask you the following ( dumb?) economic question.
If and when a currency hyperinflates, it presumably has to inflate against some other benchmark stable currency. Correct ?
Eg In the classic Weimar example the mark went from something like 4 to 1 to 460 billion to 1 against the dollar.
What then is going to be the stable benchmark currency to Menelaus' predicted hyperinflation of apparently all the world's major currencies ? The dollar, the pound, the Euro are all in the same boat of financial disaster . Surely not the Chinese yuan ? ( after all they own so much of the US debt, wouldn't they would go into a downward spiral themselves ).

FineAs

As I have previously stated I'm not an economist. If I have a talent which is debatable it is primarily the appliance of logic to a connundrum and the fearless ability to challenge bullshiit.

By the way I'm not suggesting that of you. Within your question is what appears two mutually exclusive questions. I don't think it is possible to assert both that they have to inflate against a currency but also have a prediction that all the worlds major currencies are in the same boat.

As Sherlock Holmes said if we exlcude what isn't possible then whatever is left has to be the case irrespective of how unlikely (or something like that).

So either Melly is right or wrong. If he is wrong then no worries. If he is right then logic would say that there will be hyperinflation of all currencies with the good beign dragged after the bad into the black hole. In which case we are in a new paradigm (or one with which I am unfamiliar). All fiat currency systems have eventually failed and so I presume that the answer is to be found within that statement. Value within the countries must have been retained in and of something as it would in Outer Mongolia or wherever else that particular currency was collapsing So I think the same logic has to be applied here. Given approximate ewqual values if at that time a goat could have been swapped for a lamb then I think that is your answer. It isn certainly how I have ordered my hedge.

In short my suggestion is that fiat currency is only one medium of exchange valid for a period of time. The tangibles will retain their store of value so the currencies will hyperinflate against those tangibles.

Only my opinion.

Gotta rush but I'd be happy to flesh this out later if it helps.

Thanks ( I think ).
So if I read you right, you're saying that Menelaus is predicting that the whole world effectively hyperinflates simultaneously into some sort of black hole, where only tangible commodities rule ?
Has this ever happened before, that is every meaningful currency in the world goes into the hyperinflation stratosphere simultaneously ?
Would it in reality mean that before this happens, those countries whose economies are less blighted than others would revert to some localised form of non fiat currencies before it is too late to do so ?
Btw you say this economics lark is all just about common sense , but when I start to think about black holes whether it be in this context or the physics one, my mind starts to implode.
Boy am I glad we have the Menelaus(s) of the world to sort all this out for us. What would we do without them all ?

Buy the Canadian Dollar then as a major hedge ?.
Its banks are rated the best in the world, has avoided pretty much all of the current credit related problems, has lots of commodities in the ground.
Too obvious ?

It's not debatable, It's laughable.

All the logic in the world won't help me understand the quantum mechanics behind the Higgs boson discovery because I just don't have the necessary educational background and tools to understand it. Furthermore, pretending that I do understand it, just be reading some broad brush published article on the subject, makes any conclusions I arrive at dangerous. Sometimes it's just better to be totally blind than half-blind. At least a blind man won't attempt to fly a jet airplane and inevitably crash and burn.

You're trying too hard, with the same bullsh1t you claim you challenge, to argue things that are outside of your area of knowledge. This not only makes you massively ignorant, but a hell of a hypocrite as well.

ALL FLUFF AND NO SUBSTANCE, the verdict still stands.


As for the rest of it, I can only deduce the question asked, or point raised by BOTTY, by reading the response to it. If the USD fails, every other fiat currency fails at the very same instant. Anyone who doesn't understand that, just doesn't understand what a global reserve currency really does or what it is.

be=by

Surely a typo by Menelaus.
He actually uses the word " if " and not " when ".
"--- If the USD fails----- ".

FineAs

He is doing it increasingly. Must be cracking under the pressure I'm exerting. Wait while I really start to squeeze him.

Just as I was thinking you may be slowly getting out of the anger phase and traveling towards acceptance, you go and post this.

You need to try harder.

FineAs

Clearly Melly's desperation to be noticed has overidden his manners resulting in him forcing his way into our conversation with the usual results. As a side issue I think that he is mistaken because there isn't just one reserve currency. There are a series of reserve currencies including sterling, euro, yen etc with the dollar being the main one.

In my view you are asking some very pertinent questions.

So if I read you right, you're saying that Menelaus is predicting that the whole world effectively hyperinflates simultaneously into some sort of black hole?

I'll come back to the tangibles which I have deleted from that quote but I don't think it would happen simultaneously but relatively quickly with the europeans, Japanese etc reacting to events in America and in particular the rapid depreciation of their own currencies and an accelerating race to the bottom.

Has this ever happened before, that is every meaningful currency in the world goes into the hyperinflation stratosphere simultaneously ?

I'm pretty sure it hasn't. Which is one of the reasons why guesser Melly is a fool with his complete certainties.

where only tangible commodities rule .............Would it in reality mean that before this happens, those countries whose economies are less blighted than others would revert to some localised form of non fiat currencies before it is too late to do so ?

I split these and then joined them together because here we get to the knub of the issue and again we fall back on common sense. Diversifying is the name of the game. My guess is that one of two things would be likely to occur. Either what you say may happen with some localised currencies being maintained either in non fiat or disciplined fiat form. Alternatively it could go to the opposite end. Is it so inconceivable that everybody gets together and institutes a world currency either again non fiat or fiat?

In the meantime what do you do?

I'm not qualified to tell you. Honestly? Nobody is because nobody knows for sure. Sadly, even melly. Especially Melly. I would say what you do depends on what you have to lose. Don't put all your eggs in one basket. Money held in a variety of currencies in countries which are currently showing relative discipline but also which have raw materials. As you say, Canada, Norway, Australia, Sweden and possibly Switzerland given its reputation.

It's still paper though. As I said diversify. If you've got nothing then I'd say get an allotment and familiarise yourself with self sufficiency. I know you've got plenty though. If you've got plenty then maybe buy a farm or buy agricultural land, have some tangibles like fine wine, top class single malt, fine furniture, paintings, etc. They don't tend to lose value and you can enjoy them if you want to. Then finally you have hard currencies like gold, platinum and silver which whilst expensive now and possibly subject to fluctuations again provide a hedge.

For myself, I've done much of this and more.

Feel free to ask me anything more. I'm more than happy to give an opinion although I won't claim infallibility.

FineAs

I think this is an interesting and readable opinion piece on what could happen next if and when the fiat monetary system fails:

http://papermoneycollapse.com/2012/06/the-death-of-banks-and-the-future-of-money/

Not only you're not a step closer to healing, you're descending into madness.

I'm not surprised, those who have their big egos crashed sometimes never heal.

Yeah, you heard right, I said....NEVER.

Never has Menelaus spoken a truer word.
If only he would perhaps listen to himself occasionally.
But let's face it, he's under quite a bit of pressure.
He's made a very loud, very public call that the whole world monetary system is CERTAIN to collapse in the relatively near future.
He has seemingly not only committed all his personal wealth to this certitude, but also has placed his whole professional reputation on the line.
Not an easy or comfortable position to be in.
Therefore perhaps we can and should cut him a bit of slack on here, when he goes off the rails and hurls personal abuse at one and sundry.
It must be tough being a genius and not be getting your due.
Also, unless he's not totally immoral, he must surely be secretly hoping that he is wrong on all this, and that the world will not see the destruction and mayhem that such a collapse would inevitably bring.

FineAs

I respect your view but I don't think we should cut him any slack. You expressed a view that he is dangerous. Those who thought they controlled him cut Hitler slack and look what happened. He has to be exposed for the perisher that he is. This can be done with humour but exposed he must be in my view.

Besides he has reduced what should be one of the more vibrant of the forums to a virtual wasteland with his shennanigans. He is like one of those rather loud spiv types you occasionally see at the races proclaiming that they have the winner of the next race. They draw a large crowd to them intoxicated by their verbosity and certainty. By the time of the last race he is on his own desperately praying that an outsider will save his hide with all thoughts of his reputation long since vanished.

Which is about where Melly is now. All dignity long since abandoned.

In fact the more I think about it I do wonder whether this is the natural forum for someone of his unique disposition. He should really be on the football forum shouting FREE MONEY to anyone who will listen.

This is the place where everybody should be - both the forum and the markets, but people are too stupid for that unfortunately.

A recent report published by the Rowntree foundation indicated the true cost of living had soared by more than 30% for some families over the past four years. This report was based on real life scenarios using the income and expenditure of average families. Not surprisingly more and more families are falling into poverty due to spiraling costs of living.

Many of us would certainly agree that true inflation ( not the Govt. manipulated) scenario is higher than generally reported.
However, it is questionable to extrapolate that to the unconditional conclusion that hyperinflation is just around the corner and cannot be avoided whichever way you look at it.

Indeed. Price rises and the resultant misery and squeeze for millions is very real but it can't remotely be described as a tsunami. Then again when your mentality is that unquestionably the world is melting down around you then you are given to hyperbole but that doesn't mean that you are going to be taken seriously.

This is like reading a play of the fiction of the absurd.

A white space guy who says nothing, talking to a verbose guy who says nothing.

It would be funny, if it wasn't so pathetic.

We are just filling in time until you tell us a story from when you were, "back in Nam".

Remind me again how many gooks did you kill with you bare hands?

Be afraid EO, be very afraid.

If the hyperinflation doesn't get you, then a waterboarding gang put together by Menelaus and his spook buddies will.

Doomed. We're all doomed.

FineAs

Please excuse my manners as I may have come across in the same way as Melly does with proferring my own opinion wihtout asking you how you see things. At the risk of being accused by The Great Oz of being you and interracting with myself again may I ask following on from my responses to your posts how you see things going forward? The more enlightened of us actually realise how in the dark we all are and would appreciate others input rather than thinking our own view is all that matters.

I'll let you know after it happens. I'm pretty good at that.
The only thing I know for CERTAIN is that it is not going to play ut the way anybody on here has predicted it will.
It never does.
Even if this credit crisis is somehow rectified, we will then lurch into some new crisis that is being created even now as we are working our way through the current one.
But essentially I believe that the economic supremacy of the US has probably come to an end and that the future growth of the world will be driven by the large emerging countries taking increasingly important roles in effecting all our lives.
Generalist claptrap I know, but if you invest long term outside of the good old USA, you might just come up spades.

Either that or sell futures on Menelaus' long term career prospects.

Even if this credit crisis is somehow rectified, we will then lurch into some new crisis that is being created even now as we are working our way through the current one.

Wise words sir.

Either that or sell futures on Menelaus' long term career prospects.

Even wiser ones.

I don't agree that it is generalist claptrap. It is a strategic view which if proven to be correct could reap rewards. Just because Melly colours his logic in with opacity doesn't make his economic or world view any more valid.

Melly

Lets get back to the issue. Remind me again:

What happened to your guaranteed prediction about a tsunami of inflation?

If you are wrong about that what else might you be wrong about?

Perhaps the only tsunami of inflation we are likely to see has already occurred on here ?.
That is the one involving Menelaus' sense of self-importance and correctness.

How very dare you. You can't down play events of such significance. That was genuine hyperinflation.

You know, somewhat pardoxically, Menelaus could have ( and in fact still could) dramatically increased both the degree of acceptance of and the  innate level of fear mongering in his posts, if he had posted his conclusions in the following type of manner.
" Whilst nothing is certain in this world, all that I have posted and concluded is about as close to certain as you will ever get in the world of economics ".
Personally that would have grabbed my attention and respect more than anything else.

What would have grabbed my attention is if he had said:

I've done my dough, I've polished off the brandy and now I'm heading to my office for the revolver. Of course he would miss if he was trying to blow his brains out but it is the thought which counts.

Or joking aside and using your template:

" Whilst nothing is certain in this world, all that I have posted and concluded is about as close as I can predict to being certain and I'm balls deep on it because a real man lives it rather than just talking about it. See you all in St Tropez or the soup kitchen. Either way I'll have a hell of a story to tell".

it seem smy occasional appearances on this forum weren't completely in vain

So what have we established so far:

It has big ears. You can't move it unless it wants to move. It is rather rough to the touch. It has four legs. It has tusks and a trunk.

Yep. There is an elephant in the room Melly. Hopefully if the tsunami is under about 6 feet in height and we can clamber onto its back we may be okay.

And it drops enormous turds ?

I'll set em up. You bang em in. It's like Toshack and Keegan.

More like Morecambe and Wise perhaps ?

Okay Little Ern.

I hope that doesn't mean my number is nearly up.