This cat is even more crazy than me. Bowie knife in one hand and a copy of The Wealth Of Nations in the other.

And he must be older than Methuselah having got a degree, spent 20 years in the economics field and saved the country with his bare hands at least 5 times.

Oooooooooooooooorrrrrrrrrrraaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh.

I suggest you look the word brevity up because you seem to have turned Jefferson's doctrine on its head by using ten words when one will do. Even worse you say so much without saying anything at all. What a bore you are.

There's a word when someone is seething and posts multiple posts on numerous threads trying to desperately get someone's attention.

I can't quite think of it at the moment but it will come to me....

David Price if I recall correctly.

Price you say? How apt.

The man who knows the price of everything but the value of nothing.

carlos

I'll get the popcorn out and wait for Melly's reply to you.

Menelaus     29 Jun 12 16:01  
Sorry bongo, but you're offside on this one.

You interpretation of only the debtors having a problem in a "debt crisis" is very narrow. Gross is absolutely correct. The world, both creditor and debtor nations have a huge issue in a debt crisis, not just the US and EEA who are "living massively beyond their means" and they are "the only ones having a debt crisis". Those who have lent them the  money (China, Japan, etc.) and enabled them to live beyond their means (so that they could buy their exports) will also feel the pain, in some ways actually a lot worse than the debtors. When the debtors either default, devalue or impose austerity as part of the deleveraging process, the creditors will be hugely impacted, there's no escape from that. And all that without even mentioning the global interconnectedness of the banking system.

The analysis is indeed simplistic but that's because today's monetary system model is simplistic. The system relies an infinite and expanding growth to pay the coupon or it collapses. It's that simple. That's why when we stop borrowing or default on our loans (bank balance sheet deflation) , the government steps in and borrows on our behalf, whether we like it or not, so that the ponzi can continue. When banks are insolvent, the central banks step in and the accounting rules get changed so the ponzi can continue for a little longer hoping for a miracle to come along. When sovereigns are bankrupt, money is created out of thin air to prolong the ponzi again and so that………zombie banks can live another day. The ECB would violate its mandate if it prints directly like the FED and the BoE so they go through gyrations to get around the legal obstacles but it's still printing none the less. This is the stage we're at now.

Inflation isn't necessarily a bad thing if its organic. More real growth, more money created, more velocity, etc. But not when it's the result of the central bank increasing the money supply for the sole purpose of propping dead banks. Deflation is not necessarily a bad thing either but that's another discussion all together.

Everyone on here keeps looking for the solution. I mean if it's a problem, there's must be a solution. We are wired that way. What everyone fails to see is that this is a predicament without a solution. The system was designed to some day fail from the outset. All ponzis eventually fail.

What Gross didn't mention is that both options of defaulting on bad paper and clearing the system  or more money printing to cover the gapping hole, end up at the same place. Collapse of a monetary system that has now crossed well into Twilight Zone territory.  But the central banks will choose money printing, they always have, they always will. There has NEVER been a single example of a financial or currency collapse because of deflation whereas the road to hyperinflation is littered with hundreds of such examples. This time won't be any different……..and all the "hope" in the universe won't change that.


P.S. In the US, at current spending levels, the debt ceiling will be hit this fall just before the election, not in the summer of 2013.
charlatan     29 Jun 12 18:40  
The system relies an infinite and expanding growth to pay the coupon or it collapses.

since it has never had that why is it still with us?
sean rua     29 Jun 12 19:09  
Menelaus,
         whether you're right or whether you're wrong, that is, sir, one helluva fine post, imo!
Thank you.

Maybe it rings a bell in my aged head or something.
I remember more than forty five years ago, when I was keen to change the world and rid it of its ills, I was involved with a kinda revolutionary Irish workers thing.

And, d'you know what?
We used to say, as a key plank in our anti-capitalist statement,
that the rulers were printing money and causing problems!

Even though I was a hot-headed and passionate believer back then, little did i think that I'd ever see the day
when a similar theory was put forward on a place like this.

Btw, I honestly think that this bit of your approach is right on. What I don't know, however, is where exactly do we go from here?

I can clearly see that the present set up is flawed and unsustainable. Most folk can, if they're honest.

My main worry about the future is that people in general ( including myself) seem just as fkn stupid as we were in my day - and that's despite all the technological advance and spread of so-called education.
I can't see us grasping the nettle and doing something constructive to build a better framework for human activity.

Maybe I'm just a tired and jaded, negative old bstrd, but now that capitalism in the West looks to be tottering to its death, I somehow ain't filled with gladness and joy.

Perhaps things long dreamed about are never quite as good when they seem to be coming true.

There you go, yet another post to add to the pile.
FINE AS FROG HAIR     29 Jun 12 19:36  
" This is a predicament without a solution" .
That is the essence of everything that Menelaus is posting day in day out.
And that's my problem in believing him.
If that is so clear cut and indisputable, then why are there serious economists out there ( a majority in fact ?) who are debating otherwise ?
Are they all simply just misinformed, or are they all part of a political conspiracy to keep the truth from the masses?.
I am never one to believe in these conspiracy type theories, as it seems too far fetched to be able to control the truth on such a fundamental issue which, if true, will affect the lives of everybody in the world in an extremely distressing manner, to say the very least.
FINE AS FROG HAIR     29 Jun 12 19:38  
Cue in the climate change conspiracists now I suppose.
FINE AS FROG HAIR     29 Jun 12 19:46  
Also he posts " ---What Gross doesn't mention ----- collapse of a monetary system --- "
Maybe, just maybe, it's because Gross does not think this is CERTAIN.
But if he does think that ( and I don't really know if he does or doesn't), then he becomes an idiot in Menelaus' eyes presumably ?
Btw he would then join some good company.
Menelaus is already on record on here in posting that in his opinion Warren Buffet is going to go down as the most disgraced investor of all times.
Eeternaloptimist     29 Jun 12 21:19  
FineAs

Turn it on its head. Instead of contemplating which economists disagree with The Great Oz perhaps it would be easier to compile a list of those who agree with him.

I'll start us off:













































































Nope. None found yet.
bongo     29 Jun 12 22:31  
. . . at current spending levels, the debt ceiling will be hit this fall just before the election

I agree with sean - fine post menelaus - am almost out of breath after reading it. Will have to read up a little on hyper-inflation - are there any good books out there? It seems more likely than default imv, but has chilling consequences presumably as people won't trade in the currency the govt is printing if they can find another unit of exchange. The govt on the other hand would insist, at the point of a gun presumably, that they can purchase the services of their employees and contractors with the rapidly devaluing coin they are minting. It would lead to tyranny.

Oh for the days of balanced budgets, I miss them so.
FINE AS FROG HAIR     29 Jun 12 23:21  
Come on bongo.
An intelligent guy like you falling unconditionally for this overhyped rant from Menelaus ?
You really have that little faith in all the counter moderate opinions out there being expressed daily by experienced, respected
economists ?
Have they all been bought off in some form or manner ?
Are they all expressing opinions with no theoretical validity ? Are they ALL fools to hold such opinions ?
Eeternaloptimist     30 Jun 12 00:05  
FineAs/Bongo

To be fair to menelaus I don't think it is an overhyped rant. It is very likely what is going to happen in my view. Not certain but very likely. By the way, I'll save you the trouble of looking for economists who agree with Melly because I know who they are and so does he and they are pretty much all AUSTRIAN SCHOOL ECONOMISTS. Just remember the quote I gave you from Mises and it all falls into place.

Which is why I keep asking him why he doesn't just come out of the closet and why he keeps refusing to answer. He isn't clever. He can just regurgitate what someone else has prophesied.
FINE AS FROG HAIR     30 Jun 12 01:39  
If it's ok with you EO, I think I'll still go with the moderate camp out there.
There's a problem, we've identified it, we're trying to fix it without bringing the whole financial system crashing down.
Most importantly don't panic, don't overreact.
Not quite trust me I'm a doctor stuff, but along those lines. Perhaps I'm naive and innocent and stupid as Menelaus implies, but it has got me through life so far with a considerable nest egg tucked under my belt ( basically I lucked out tbh). I hope it all doesn't disappear in hyperinflationary smoke. It would be most annoying to have to start all over again at the bottom of the woodpile. I'm afraid to say that I have not kept my skills up to date, not my working ones that is.
The only thing that I know from all this is that we will not have learnt any lessons, and it will all happen again some time down the road. Quite depressing really.





Mcben, eo, frog do u not have an onze of pride. Even the guys u praise are get destroyed, at least the have the decency to admit it. After a bit of encouragement from
eo bongo and co still think could be right. Bongo, Seon etc etc are at least starting to understand wat an idiot u r eo. This is ur intelligence level

ETO--

Hey Carlos come over to the light side of the street. We've got running water and everything. If you stay over on the dark side Melly will keep ignoring your questions, you will end up with frost bite and your diick will drop off. Assuming Melly hasn't already put it on his mantelpiece.

Fella went to carlos house and asked if he was in. The cretin who answered the door said, "he's not in. He's at Cambridge."  Impressed that carlos could have risen from such humble beginnings, surrounded by such obvious idiocy to such a place of learning he said, "what is he doing at Cambridge?". The cretin replied, "sitting in a jar."

Can't help you there. I tend not to go for superficial. I'm sure I can put you in touch with someone on your level though.



























































Carlos.

Egotism is a funny thing - you make a prediction, you announce it and explain it, and then you actually end up wanting it to come true even if it hurts you, because it makes you look good. Being right on a public forum about something massages your ego. I occasionally provide ratings for a web-site and when I've bet on something I haven't published and it wins, it hurts. 'Hey, why didn't I announce that ahead of time to anyone who'd listen' the little voice says. How clever would that seem? Worse is when you announce that x will win, but back y, and coming down the 18th it's x vs y, and you want x to win. That's ego at work. The corollary is true also imv, in that when someone with a very big ego gets something wrong, it also makes you feel goo-ood. Seeing the big guy take a knock.
This character menelaus seems to have this effect - he gets under your skin despite a lot of interesting postings - and I end up wanting the US Federal Govt to see it through to spring 2013 before the buffoonish dance with Congress asking for help raising the debt ceiling again just so he looks clever and I look foolish. Egotism again.

In the meantime - I'm thinking of buying this book on hyperinflation:.
http://www.amazon.co.uk/Profit-Coming-Hyperinflation-Henry-Zimmer/dp/0825302536
It has no reviews - and on title appears to have got it completely wrong.  Sounds interesting.

I told you the most valuable thing of all, how this ends, what more do you want?

Or is posting fluff on here that you are *slightly* leaning towards owning hard assets, mistaking what Friedmanism really is, not understanding Keen and his proposed solution, and taking a Mises quote totally out of context give you a pass to incessantly post rubbish and fluff dressed in colorful language trying to pass it off as substance.

Hyperinflation is how this ends, the will print until faith in fiat is lost, they have no other tools and certainly no Plan B. The problem with you and the rest of the members of the benny the clown halfwit cartel (bongo is not one of them) is interpreting the word "ends" to mean.......tomorrow. There are very powerful forces at work trying to protect their position of power and control and they will use every trick in the book to pull the wool over your eyes. They will lie, obfuscate, change rules, break the law and won't hesitate to do whatever it takes to prolong their position of power and the existing system that benefits them. That's not hard to do when you can conjure money out of thin air, own the people's representatives and installed an education system that has done a phenomenal job in dumbing down people.

You are a prime example. They taught you how to read and write well but they didn't inject a morsel of interest in you to inquire, question, research and critically examine what's beneath the surface.


You claim to be able to paint the Mona Lisa and criticize others on here yet all you've showed you have in your hands so far is a roller brush.

There are very powerful forces at work trying to protect their position of power and control and they will use every trick in the book to pull the wool over your eyes. They will lie, obfuscate, change rules, break the law and won't hesitate to do whatever it takes to prolong their position of power and the existing system that benefits them.

Seems to me that you are making a very powerful argument for the proposition that this could go on for a long time. Which won't make any difference to me because I'm hedged whichever way it goes. In the meantime you can keep barking at the moon and flapping your chops.

the 10YR UST

Thanks!

I could put up a 3,000 word post on the indicators that the CBs are losing control. You don't deserve it and it would go over your head so why bother. Your statement is yet another indication that you are massively confused by current events. Use your brain, if you have one, and start asking questions. What is the problem with this financial crisis? What has been their answer so far? What has been the half-life of policy responses and market interventions, and why does that half-life seem to get shorter and shorter? Why, almost five years into this and 20 plus trillion thrown at the perceived problem, the monster is still there?

It's like I've already pointed out. One minute you are screaming at anybody and nobody in particularly to man the lifeboats as this sucker is going down and quick but the next when someone asks you to put some flesh on dem dar bones (carlos is the latest) you go all coy. You wouldn't want anything there for someone to quote back at you would you?

fkkn hell .The same rubbish over and over from melly  " hyperinflation is where it ends, blah blah blah" OMG - please take a look at the "wrong for 1100 days in a row " thread.

newsflash to dropkicks melly and carlos- your on a one way train to oblivion through your own ignorance.Its your proper place in life.

No doubt we will have to put up with more of melly's one way diatribe for decades to come.

Someone please tell me why  a punter would pay 125 pounds to listen to a  buffoon when a 13yo economics student could tell you the same stuff for free.

Give me a break

Of course his lifeboat won't be empty. I forgot his best friends Norman and Hilda will be with him. Take some cheese Melly. Rats are suppsoed to like cheese.

Is it really getting on for two years ago that Melly told us all to brace ourselves for the imminent arrival of an inflation tsunami?

No wonder he has given up on timeline predictions. If brains were bird shiit that crazy fool would have the cleanest cage around.