Tradefair & Financials
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I wake this morning and gold is down again. $1621.
Thats not the big thing though,financial press and media outlets are now awash with "gold its all over, gold to sell off, gold headed for under 1000 " etc etc
Now we all know this is a reaction to BB stating in the fed minutes that QE will end in june. The theory being that no more money printing no more flood of $$$$$ chasing assets.
No hyperinflation threat, no need to protect against inflation.
Thats the theory.
How will it play in reality and how to make profits from it? I'm pondering the following scenarios
1.QE actually does stop.Markets fall as a result and gold plummets.
2. as in 1 except BB does not want markets to fall and comes out to support them.I can see it now " the fed can become accomodative if need be"
Markets rally and gold pings back up.
3. The dark pools push gold up a bit from here to draw in the suckers- the " see gold is going back up " play. At a suitable point the huge sell off occurs, wiping out the mellys of this world.
4. Pretty much nothing happens price wise. Retails punters all get positioned short and wait for the plunge.It never occurs and gold creeps back up.This is the same play as oil over the last month but in reverse.
5. The dark pools pull the pin and gold plunges 100$ plus in a session, triggering all kinds of stops and auto trading, causing a bloodbath.
MELLY- insert your insults and useless diatribe here
for everyone else- some thoughts?
Thats not the big thing though,financial press and media outlets are now awash with "gold its all over, gold to sell off, gold headed for under 1000 " etc etc
Now we all know this is a reaction to BB stating in the fed minutes that QE will end in june. The theory being that no more money printing no more flood of $$$$$ chasing assets.
No hyperinflation threat, no need to protect against inflation.
Thats the theory.
How will it play in reality and how to make profits from it? I'm pondering the following scenarios
1.QE actually does stop.Markets fall as a result and gold plummets.
2. as in 1 except BB does not want markets to fall and comes out to support them.I can see it now " the fed can become accomodative if need be"
Markets rally and gold pings back up.
3. The dark pools push gold up a bit from here to draw in the suckers- the " see gold is going back up " play. At a suitable point the huge sell off occurs, wiping out the mellys of this world.
4. Pretty much nothing happens price wise. Retails punters all get positioned short and wait for the plunge.It never occurs and gold creeps back up.This is the same play as oil over the last month but in reverse.
5. The dark pools pull the pin and gold plunges 100$ plus in a session, triggering all kinds of stops and auto trading, causing a bloodbath.
MELLY- insert your insults and useless diatribe here
for everyone else- some thoughts?
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Replies: 193
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Why waste so many words? Why didn't you just post "melly I haven't a clue what's going on with gold, I need help"?
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that was the expected response from you melly.
Now why dont you shut the fk up for a change so we can hear from someone else.Thanks.Have a nice sleep. |
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This is just another "why is oil going up" post by benny the clown, when he revealed his massive ignorance about oil, only this time the subject is gold. It will take a few posts on this thread for our resident clown to realize it, but realize it he will.
The level of understanding displayed here in a worthless and long post typical from this poster, on what is happening with gold and where things are headed is beyond ignorant. It's simply stunningly uniformed and the analysis is childish. You don't believe me? Stay tuned....  |
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Here´s something to wet your appetite:
The FED's late gyrations are NOT about gold, they have proven they can control the PMs market almost at will, and Bernanke in the last Qtr of 2011 announced to the world that he will not make the same mistake as big PV. If you didn´t hear that announcement it's because you weren´t listening. This is ALL about OIL, because even the mighty FED still hasn´t figured a way to print oil. ....to be cont´d |
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Im not clear melly- is gold going up OR down from here?
currently 1625. straight answer please. |
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too friggin late melly< I just took 5 $ out of it on the downside.
still I like to know from you please. up or down from here currently 1622. I want to get on massively as you can probably tell.But is it up or is it down? |
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If you promise to keep the epileptic fits down to a bear minimum......I will educate you.
Just like money, inflation, CPI, oil and and a wide assortment of other financial learnings. But you have to promise first, I wouldn't want to be wasting my time.....AGAIN. |
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So let me get this straight, you wrote an 1,000 word post full of errors and drivel that you tried to pass off as analysis, when the ONLY thing you were interested in was simply asking "up or down"?
Basically my initial response was right on the money then, you should have just posted "melly I don't have a clue what's going on with gold, I need help" I can help you, open your eyes like I have done in the past, but first you have to promise to do away (to the extend that you can) with the epileptic fits. |
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short answer: melly hath a hoarde of gold under ye floorboards of his french castle. it is protected by a dragon so don't get any ideas. next to it is a bomb-proof concrete bunker filled with Tampax tampons.
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why the **** is melly posting
A) at 5am in the morning B) at 8am in the morning (presumably at work) C) at 12pm (presumably during lunch) Talk about obsessed. Seek help ffs. |
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disappointing from you melly.
Gold is a traders paradise this week, being more volatile than even the AUD.I made some profits but nothing spectacular. The point of the thread is this-maybe, just maybe, it is over for gold, in which case there are possible 100's of $$$ to come off the price. A potential bonanza for those who get it right.However it can just as easily return to the 1680 level. The scenario I favour is that gold will rise a bit from the 1625's( closed this morning 1630).Then do pretty much nothing until it drops from the media screens.Then-if and only if BB confirms no more QE the big session will come from left field and gold loses 100+ in a session.Under that scenario one can get positioned with not so much upside risk and plenty of profit potential. If the figures from the US keep looking good, and they probably will given the closing election timeframe then the above scenario is my number 1.Number 2 is of course the opposite- the figures don't come out better, the dow falls and BB turns around and gives his "accomodative speech".The printing presses resume and gold rises as does the dow. I'm not interested in some intellectual lecture.I only want to make $$$$.If you have an opinion as the the ACTUAL direction-lets hear it and why. Both scenarios represent profits.One is good the other enormous. Thing is to make the big $$$$ you need to get positioned ahead. |
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benny the clown, perhaps you need to accept that this trading the AUD and Gold stuff is not for you.
The "pull the thumb out of the arse and stick it up in the air" method for making price movement calls has been discredited long ago. You however seem to be painfully unaware of it. |
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And I would be letting myself down if I didn't post this before logging off but all that rubbish in your last post you are trying to pass off as knowledge is so far off the mark is comic.
Learn you lesson benny the clown, stick to your "method" for making price movement calls, mostly after the fact, because every time you had a go at "analysis" (and trust me, I use the word very very very loosely), it exposes you for the utterly clueless mug that you really are. |
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And I wouldn't respect myself in the morning if in this late hour I didn't at least give you a heads up.
We have family over this weekend so I won't be able to do much of anything else but entertain. But I hope by early next week to post the reall story and analysis on the FED's easing intentions. Real analysis, not sh1t someone may have read in their daily morning rag and they regurgitate without really understanding. Your write up (I refuse to call it analysis) is about to be shred to pieces and give me the pleasure of exposing your epic ignorance - yet again. |
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I cannot believe fundamentals are of such big importance if
gold is quoted 1600 or 1660. Mrben, what spread has the broker you are using, is it 0.4 points? It must be difficult to day trade that if an ordinary day it is about 20 points between the highest and the lowest quote. |
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melly- another poor effort by you.
I courteously ask if gold is up or down from here. I stated possible scenarios. YOU failed to address the question.Its because you are completely clueless, I know that. Your diatribe of insults proves yet again that you serve no purpose in this forum other than entertainment.  "Your write up (I refuse to call it analysis) is about to be shred to pieces and give me the pleasure of exposing your epic ignorance - yet again." about to be shred to pieces? by whom? YOU? But you offerred not a single word about gold. Your entire 3 posts were all about me.Nothing else.  you are unable to offer a single sentence of your own that does not include deriding me  You were given the polite chance to offer you thoughts.You did not because you have no thoughts. I have led you around the forum yet again.My mission accomplished. It was always my intention to expose you as the clueless mug you are.You fell for it ( again}  I'm sure every follower of this forum would have been totally stunned had you ACTUALLY stated gold would go up or down.You were never going to do that. Too easy. You really are as thick as 2 short planks melly.  Do you seriously think I would ask YOU, the BIGGEST LOSER of all time for trading advice?  Your ego is out of control if you fell for that glib come on And you DID fall for it.Seems your high grade education does;nt allow you to think past your deluded self. Hook, line and sinker. Till next time melly the mug.God bless, goodwill to all men over easter.  |
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Maximum- brokers here in oz use between 50 cents and one dollar spread depending on the time of day.Some use 60/1.20 spread.
We do not have the luxury here of trading gold during its main session unless you want to stay up all night. You right, generally gold is not a day trading type opportunity here during our day session with those kinds of spreads.Occasionally it is of course but not consistently. Normally I dont' trade gold but like everyone I watch it. This week I did make 5 trades in it as it was hard to miss the downside. As a day trader I'm always looking for that volatility or big moves. I would like to claim that i got 50$ out of it on the big slide, but alas no. 5$ here, 3$ there. |
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Melly: "gold will go up, unless it goes down instead. or perhaps it will stay exactly the same."
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ahahhahaah Whippet- thats melly
bit each way, up down, down up ohh no i dont know --- better to repeat the same meltdown/hyperinflation print print omg I can;t think of anything else, drivel. totally clueless porshe driving mug. |
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Nothing ever changes on here......benny the clown having epileptic fits.......and wipeout still shamelessly on his knees.
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and melly getting it wrong.
and melly getting led around by his nose. and melly getting publically spanked week after week. |
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benny the clown is confused or brain dead depending on your point of you.
He's trying to make long term calls on gold using totally flawed fundamentals and short term calls (it looks like 5 minute chart stuff to me) without (by his own admission) knowing how use technicals. Our resident clown wouldn't know the difference between a bollinger band and a marching band. If you think he is having epileptic fits now, I am about to send him in full retard mode when I rip to shreds all the rubbish he posted on this thread. Stay tuned. |
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My two pennarth, gold is more likely to hit five figures than 1,000 :)
The Fed might be able to set the price of PM's for the moment but once the dollar starts (continues) to lose it's luster, the game changes. I wouldn't have a clue about the short term, no one does, it's guessing and totally random guesses, get a few right get a few wrong, the broker wins. Gold WILL uncouple from the wider markets, then it will properly take off, when this happens is impossible to predict. |
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muqbil- why do yu think gold will uncouple? The money printing argument?
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"I'm not interested in some intellectual lecture"
Keep it simple and just stick your thumb out of your arse and make the call mate. You wouldn't understand an "intellectual lecture" anyways, so why be bothered? |
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Mrben, basically I think when the dollar collapses gold will fly. I make no claims to be anything other than an interested amateur though!
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Would be great to see gold and silver crash and everything magically fix.
I won't hold my breath. The fed might not be officially announcing QE but they are buying something like 60% of US treasuries. Funny how it all seems to be getting so much better in an election year. |
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yes muqbil , I think everyone i pretty much aware that IF the USD collapses gold will fly.The question is WHY will the USD dollar collapse?
The only argument is the money printing one.If QE stops then that argument is pretty much out the window. Then why hold gold after that? The Indians have pretty much stated that 1700$ is as much as they are willing or capable of paying for their jewellery wants. Who will be the buyers then? China? Maybe.But I dont think so. China already holds 3 trillion is usd teasuries and $$$$$$, if the usd collapses and they buy gold to counteract that they are left with a mountain of gold and valueless USD.Now they are vulnerable to a huge downswing in gold as the US govt takes action to "save" the $$$$.They just are'nt that dumb. Next point- there is NFW the US govt will stand by and let its economy totally collapse. They will do whatever it takes to save themselves. The argument that US will print and print to the point of collapse is, in my view absolute rubbish.Even the famed Marc Faber has been sucked into this argument advocating buying endless commodities, yet he recently admitted that this play is behind for the last 2years or so. Next point- how can there be a worse period than what occurred over the GFC? Gold was able to get to 2000$ then, which means we need a worse situation to push it past 2000. Now if the above argument does'nt hold and the US govt does print endlessly the gold is thru the roof.Will this happen prior to the election.mmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm unlikely. |
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There you have it ladies a gentlemen, analysis befitting a five-year old child, complete with a reference to Marc Faber....LMFAO.
It is nearly criminal you are allowed to post on here. |
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gold is my new trading friend. $20 range yesterday and 12$ the day before that.Great for daytraders.
Dow off 213 overnight and gold hits 1660 this morning.I'm shorting here at just under 1660. Exits in the sub 1650 to 1640 range.Keyed in for the big sell off as well if it comes. melly-post your insult here. |
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hit 1654.5, moved profit stop to 1656.5.Taken out. A day traders dream at the moment.
Back up to 1659 now.Stay tuned. |
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Price swings the last couple of trading days:
FTSE 2.8pc DAX 3.7pc CAC 4.4pc MIB 7.1pc DOW 2.2pc S&P 2.4pc Italian banks 10.0pc plus GOLD 0.08pc …and this clown thinks Gold is "a day traders dream at the moment" STFU you annoying halfwit |
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Mrben 10 Apr 12 23:21
........I'm shorting here at just under 1660. ..... Oooooops $1,674 as I type this......anyone remember what scenario was this...LMFAO? Thank gawd no one over the age of five followed this mug |
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melly confirms his idiot status yet again. That posi was "taken out" @ 1656. Some 18 + hours ago I think. Try to learn the terms melly you dunderhead.
Ask the doctor to increase your dosage. very very good day here with a 25$ range on gold and a beautiful 150 pip range on the AUD. Day traders have plenty to trade.  |
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You're a day joker, not a day trader.
FACT |
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melly- try not to quite so desperate. Your boring the socks off the forum.
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Gold is really the traders friend atm. Trending down with volatility circa 20$ a day.
If you can't make money trading gold your not really trying. |
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Mrben 08 Apr 12 00:44
The question is WHY will the USD dollar collapse? You are asking the wrong question, the question is; "How can the dollar possibly survive?" |
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Muqubil- if your cut and pasting that quote then clearly your read the rest of my post. Question already answered.You may not like the answer but uts still answered.
if you want to make money you need to get off the "USD is going to collapse" train. AUD down 60 pips today and gold has a 15$ range so far. EUR has an 80 pips range today. Forget about usd collapse and get on the trading profits train instead. |