Are we still all still bailing from (possibly all) fiat currency before the end of 2012?

I've already done it. I've swapped my useless paper for liquor chocolates, which I've hidden under my bed.

now i'm worried, i failed to heed the advice and now i'm stuck with large bundles of US and NZ dollars
is it too late to exchange these for liquor chocolates?

Tick, tick, not too long to wait! Can't imagine the implosion before the end of this year though, 2013 and beyond....

whippet, polybot



I so regret NOT building a bomb shelter and filling it with tampax.

Tampax tampons is the closest melly got to using "tight stops".

polybot-

Serious question for you guys.

Do you honestly think everything has just 'blown over' and the events of the past few years will fade away without any ill effects?

It's incredulous that after the sub-prime circus, only a few years later people are still taken in by the fraud of the financial world. Up until mid 2007 the bonds constructed of all the sub prime flotsam were rock solid, the bond markets per se are going to implode, there is no other way out (imho).

What other ending is there?


(This is not a rant btw, genuinely interested in others opinion on the current situation, surely we can still debate without mud slinging on this forum?)

sub prime circus left town early 2009, it was only booked for 2 years
don't worry, another circus may be along some time...

Things have gotten worse, way worse, since the subprime fiasco started this crisis. And there can only be ONE end to this, if you still don't get that you don't undertsand how our monetary system works. It's not conjecture it is mathematics and geology. Any fool boasting on here about having "bundles" (must be a down under thing or something) just doesn't undertsand the power of the exponential function..........and oil extraction flow rates.

So soon after the sub prime fiasco, one would think people would be more inclined to be suspicious of Wall Street / Bernake & co?

The overwhelming majority of people still don't know nor understand what's going on - take your clue from this forum.

It's like some poor mug jumping form the roof of a 50 story building. The first couple of floors on the way down he thinks to himself "sh1t I'm fecked". Then for the next 48 floors he mutters "it's been a while and all's good so far, you never know I could have a soft landing". And then.......splat!!!!

It's that last inch that's the b1tch.

All the CB massive intervention so far has created the false impression that we can be suspended forever between the 48th floor and hard ground, and that ultimately we can have a soft landing. Good luck to those who think that way, they'll find out the hard way (literally!!!!) that gravity (or in this case a debt based monetary system that can no longer grow enough to pay the coupon) can not and will not be suspended.

It's always that last inch that's the b1tch.

Great analogy Menelaus I hope you are wrong but think you will be right...

If I may use your analogy, CB intervention is like flapping your arms on this jump possibly with an accompanying morphine shot to keep you smiling. May I ask what floor you think we're currently at? Also, while I can see the  reasoning behind gold hitting even in excess of 5 figures, does that not make it very possible/likely that it would be confiscated before then? ie how do you win? (answers for all please not just a general 'you don't' which is most likely).

May I ask what floor you think we're currently at?

Considering that the poor mug (financial system) jumped off the rooftop in 2007 (Bear Stearns hedge fund collapse) and now it looks increasingly unlikely we will get much beyond 2015 (look at the mountain of debt that matures then) when CB intervention becomes for the most part totally ineffective (loss of credibility - this is after all nothing by a con game played with digital money that can be created at will by central bankers just with a few keystrokes), I would say he just flew by the 30th floor, or thereabouts, on his way to hitting hard ground.


I can see the  reasoning behind gold hitting even in excess of 5 figures, does that not make it very possible/likely that it would be confiscated before then?

If gold hits in excess of 5 figures, then the central banks have lost control, and confiscation will be the least of your problems.

At any rate, when gold was confiscated in the US in 1933, it was linked to the gold standard, it was money. Now it is not, it is merely an asset, much like any other piece of property you may own. This significantly changes the dynamic for the government (politically and legally) to confiscate gold today as in essence it would be no different then confiscating your home for example. If property rights are lost for the people, then all rights are lost, it's that simple. Having said all that, nothing would surprise me in this ultra fascist system western democracies have now evolved into.


how do you win?

Convert your constantly debased fiat money to hard assets…….then sit back and enjoy the show.

I think that all of Menelaus's monetary prophecies went SPLAT a long time ago.
He just keeps push out the timing of his doomsday prophecy.
Not really useful or helpful in the real world of investing.

You about????? That 's good, there's been so much horsesh1t posted on here lately you can blend right in......for those that are dumb enough not to have blocked you long ago that is.

FINE AS FROG HAIR, I would be fascinated to know how you think this will end? Surely you don't believe the little tremor of the past few years is the end of the storm?

There are dozens of alarms going off yet most people are happy to ignore the warnings and believe everything the incredibly corrupt world leaders (financial institutions) tell them. It's hard to know who is playing their part in keeping up the charade and who is so blinkered they cannot see?

Muqbil
Call me a just a believer in the collective power and determination of the human race to pull through all such setbacks.
Though this financial tsunami has been severe, I do not think it bodes the end of the world monetary system as Menelaus would like to have us believe.
A return to the gold standard is a non starter and the current system actually does work reasonably well in that it allows pretty flexible policy responses to monetary crises.
I just think we have to address more strictly the abuses  of the ssystem that the recent problems have exposed.
Primarily the over rewarding in a short term sense of Wall St executives, without there being due accountability for their self-centric actions.

Call me a just a believer in the collective power and determination of the human race to pull through all such setbacks

Those in power are doing everything the can to make the divide between rich and poor greater and greater. Who are do you refer to as; "the collective power and determination of the human race"?

There will come a point when the world wakes up to the fact they have been shafted good and proper for the past few hundred years by those holding the purse strings.

The collective power of the human race is pulling in all different directions within countries and globally.

What happens when the dollar is no longer the reserve currency? Might people start losing confidence in the us en mass?

By choice, I can't see his response but let me take a shot at it :

"blah, blah, blah, we'll muddle through, blah blah, I don't have a friggin idea how or why, we just will, blah blah, blah, we'll muddle through, blah, I can't provide a morel of analysis to back up my beliefs because i'm incapable of thinking for myself but who needs that on this forum anyways, blah, blah, we'll muddle through"

Was I close?

WEll Muqbil, perhaps I could put it this way.
I do not see any good reasons why either the rich and powerful or the poor and weak would want all this to end badly. They would both be extremely poorer and weaker as a result.
All I see, based pretty much on practical day to day observations, is great efforts being made by all and sundry to avoid and terminal meltdown.
Contrary to Menelaus's theoretical argument that there can only be one ending, I read articles by well respected economic commentators every day ( nobel laureates no less ) that there are most certainly other more promising and positive eventualities.
So who to believe in the sense of just getting on with life as one has always done.
Menelaus and his arrogant, rude, hysterical rants ?
I don't think so .

Anyway when on earth is Menelaus's almost perfect incorrect forecasting of ( at least) near term financial developments going to be held against his credibility as a forecaster of medium/long term developments ?.
Not that it is really important in the sense that he is not really  trying to gain anything by having people slavishly act on his views and opinions ( now that would have been an unmitigated disaster ), but perhaps it is important in that his type of absolute negativity coud gain traction if it was being proved right in the near term, but thankfully it isn't at all.
I guess we can in fact be thankful to him for his innate capability to forecast, and thus highlight, what isn't happening right now.

I would be willing to wager a handsome sum that I was bang on.

.....and after reading the same "I don't have the faintest idea why but...I'm sure we'll just muddle through, somehow, someway we'll just muddle through" post a few hundred times.....you just have to say to yourself "enough" and block the clueless mug.

Simples

Perhaps we should all try to talk around Menelaus a bit more on this forum.?
The debate would at least become a bit more civilised and less biased
Whilst it might end up being less literate in  puren economic theory sense without his input, would that necessarily be such a bad thing ?
I have always thought that over dependence on pure economic theory is a weakness when it comes to day by day investing. And let's face it, Menelaus would seem to have proved this point in spades.

FINE AS FROG HAIR
27 Mar 12 22:05 Joined: 12 Mar 07 | Topic/replies: 4,828 | Blogger: FINE AS FROG HAIR's blog
I think that all of Menelaus's monetary prophecies went SPLAT a long time ago.
He just keeps push out the timing of his doomsday prophecy.
Not really useful or helpful in the real world of investing.


spot on. greece was supposed to default last year according to that mug. he will just keep changing the dates until he eventually gets it right ffs.

Now Whippet I understand that you have a personal agenda going with Menelaus ( in fact who doesn't ? ) but let's not slip into his mode of debate, saying that is he is a blithering idiot etc etc. He obviously isn't.
Let's face it, Greece is for all intents and purposes technically bankrupt, it is effectively in a form of receivership.
But that's not the point.
People have come to the rescue ( either willingly or otherwise ) and that is what has impacted the markets.
My problem with Menelaus is ( and probably always will be) that he has formed a " doomsday " opinion and he then fits all facts and figures to support that opinion.
He always counters any difference of opinion with the petulant shout of " put up or shut up ".
Well many of us either cannot or cannot be really bothered to go into that level of detail, particularly if we are not trained economists.
But we are more often than not fairly well read and hopefully reasonably intelligent.
Personally I rely a lot on the basic commonsense approach that as there are a lot of very well trained economists out there, then if all the relevant economic data was that unambigusously conclusive then they would presumably be all singing from the same song sheet. But they clearly aren't. So the ending to all this must not necessarily be the doomsday forecast Menelaus is continuously trying to force us to believe is a foregone conclusion.
Also his views on the Fed are not universal.
Many see it as an impartial, good influence on economic affairs.
Now I'm not saying I'm right and he is wrong, I just really wish he would stop saying that he is incontrovertibly right and we are all idiots if we can't see or understand that.

Wipeout, if I pull up the post where I posted that Greece would default no later than the 1st Qtr 2012, would you give your word to stop posting on here? Or, are you too much of a w*******e for your word to mean anything?

how about I pull up every post from the last year where you said greece was about to default within the next month?

How about I pull up every complete and utter failure of a prediction that you have made since you joined this forum?

How about I pull up every single post where you have lied, dodged the truth, or just been a complete hypocrite?

How you have the nerve to tell anyone to leave the forum is absolutely incredible. Only a person with all the characteristics of a sociopath would still be here after posting the utter drivel you do time and time again.

How about you just validated (not that I didn't already know) that you are a w*****e.

Oh, my bad, Wipeout you're talking about yourself......I got confused there for a second. It was when I started thinking about the "sociopath" thing, you know "I will utterly destroy you", "I own you", and the like that you keep posting that I caught on you are talking about you.

Sorry mate.....

Wipeout, I'm off form this evening. "Hypocrite" was another dead give away that you are standing in front of a mirror naked. The "bad predictions" are a matter of course for you as well as all your friends here so I wasn't so sure.

Why didn't you keep it simple and use the "W" word, then there would be no doubt you are describing yourself.

Whippet please stop feeding this monster.
Absolutely no point or benefit in doing so.
Certainly don't leave the forum because of him.
He's just a bully of the worst order.
And like most bullies, he's covering up some deficiency he has in fully socially integrating with the normal world.
Just sort of feel sorry for him.
Leave him to his textbooks and his ivory tower.
You carry on making money in the way you apparently know best how to do. Small caps isn't it ?

You should try posting under 'BOTTY again, at least I wouldn't be just staring at that white space under your name.

Out of curiosity, did you suspend your internet subscription for a while to help keep up with the heating bills? If that's the case, which I suspect it is, I look forward to next winter.

Some of us are fortunate enough to live in eternal summers.

I can see your lips moving but I can't hear you. The mute button has been pushed on your incessant drivel long ago. Best decision I ever made on this forum.

But I'm willing to wager a lot of money, you just posted "we'll muddle through" yet again......LMFAO.

Will someone please on my behalf put tis poor guy in the loop.
Just tell him that I have completely reversed all my previous opinions and that I am now totally in his camp. Say that I am now basing all my investment decisions on his sound, decisive opinions, and am ignoring any and all counter views, irregardless of their source ( nobel laureates included).
I fully expect to make many miliions as a result ( I just have to make sure that I have enough liquidity to carry some annoying current losses generated since switching over to following his advice unconditionally - mere blips I am sure. )
I can now sleep at night, my love life has improved considerably, I'm eating better, my swimming lap times have come down dramaticaly - in fact it's all good. And all thanks to Menelaus. What can I say?. The guy's a marvel. Don't follow his advice at your peril.

Let me guess, "we'll muddle through".

What do I win?

Just another turkey I'm afraid to say.
He must have a veritable farm going there in Mayfair by now.
I hope the neighbours aren't too upset.