Should we short the pound against the dollar?

What "printing that is forecast next month"???

May be I didn't get the memo, but when did the printing stop?

The BoE is printing as I post this, the FED is printing as I post this, the ECB is printing as I post this, Japan, China and Switzerland are printing as I post this.

What printing "next month"???

I meant the forecast next round of printing.
"LONDON—Falling petrol prices in December caused the steepest drop in the U.K.'s annual rate of inflation in more than two years, giving the Bank of England more breathing room to bolster its stimulus program.
The consumer price index rose 4.2% in December from the same month a year earlier, the Office for National Statistics said Tuesday. The figure, which was in line with economists' forecasts, is down from 4.8% in November—marking the biggest month-to-month fall in the annual inflation rate since April 2009, when the U.K. was suffering the effects of the last recession.
Inflation is still far above the Bank of England's 2% target but BOE policy makers expect further steep declines in coming months because last year's rise in the U.K. sales tax and energy price rises shouldn't be replicated in 2012.
Economists believe that will give the BOE room to maneuver on monetary policy, expanding its quantitative easing program of asset purchases as soon as February in a bid to kick-start the economy.
The current £275 billion ($421.5 billion) ceiling for asset purchases is due to be hit in February. The key BOE rate is at an all-time low of 0.5%."

Economists believe that will give the BOE room to maneuver on monetary policy, expanding its quantitative easing program of asset purchases as soon as February in a bid to kick-start the economy

The whole "inflation is easing" propaganda coming out of the BoE *was* to provide cover for the inevitable "quantitative easing program" (okay, let's cut the crap and call it for what it is, money printing out of thin air), which is inevitable soon again to recapitalize the banks. I've posted about this since day one.

In addition, QE1 was not done to "kick-start the economy", neither was QE2. QE3 coming up this year won't be either. It's to prevent the banking system from collapse. Period. But it will be sold to the gullible public again as necessary in order for the banks to "start lending again to support economic growth"

Falling petrol prices in December caused the steepest drop in the U.K.'s annual rate of inflation in more than two years

Someone remind me again, what's Brent trading at today?

Stow Judge - buy Apple.

It's either that or buy....

UK one year bonds at -0.015

German one year bonds at 0.000

US one year bonds at 0.000

.....your choice.



(Good to see the fanboys coming out of their six month hibernation. It must be the recent strength of AAPL that woke them up again. From a trading standpoint, it's a looooooong time to hold on to a $400+ stock so it can go up a whopping $1.88 as I'm posting this since Oct. 14, 2011. But to each his own )

I'm certain that you are right. The other side of it, is that we all get stuffed with upward pressure on inflation. I can't possibly see how it is going towards the 2% by the end of the year that they suggest.

Does anyone have a view on the pound/dollar rate from this point?

The pound/dollar rate is the same as it was twelve months ago but in the same period Apple has gone up 30% (reference Menelaus's massive Apple short thread to put his contribuition in perspective). I would lean towards the pound weakening. But that's medium-term; the way I bet, I don't need to be right straight away.

We can't get it right all the time. He would appear to understand things much better than most of us on here.

Hmmm, the chap has enough money to buy a $400+ stock but not enough sense to put things in perspective. They have a name for people like that, they call them...... fanboys.

The pound/dollar rate is the same as it was twelve months ago but in the same period Apple has gone up 30%

Let's have a closer look.

If AAPL has gone up 30pc, at today's price, it must have been bought at $296. AAPL traded at $296.80 on Oct 8, 2010....NOT twelve months ago.

The broad index (S&P) went up about 15pc during the same period, and AAPL didn't make the list of "top ten gainers" at the end of last year.

More importantly, you needed 0.22 ounces of gold to buy AAPL on Oct 8, 2010, you need 0.25 ounces of gold to buy AAPL today. Hardly something to boast about, especially if you consider the blatant central bank smackdown of gold into the close of the year that skews that picture, but it is what it is. And since unitedbiscuits seems to have a long term perspective, I'd rather own a hard asset than a piece of paper.

And finally, far more importantly if you are trading, the S&P "churned" 3,000pc+ during the same period (a trader's wet dream) with a number of ETFs trading 15-20pc plus or minus on a daily basis. Tying up capital in a very expensive stock that went nowhere for months, is not what a good trader under those conditions.

There can be no denying that AAPL performance is impressive, it has become the top hedge funds favorite play thing, it has become a "safe haven" investment, but bad fundamentals are building up for AAPL (they are called google and margin squeeze) and the market overall has defied gravity, but sooner or later reality has a way of asserting itself.

A "buy apple" call is impotent at this point. The hedge funds know that, those fanboys blinded by the brand will realize it too late.

One more thought, as I want to address the first part of the sentence "The pound/dollar rate is the same as it was twelve months ago "


Trading F/X is not a "buy and hold" game. No one trading F/X takes a position that they hold for a very long time. It's the daily, sometimes hourly, or even measured in seconds moves that F/X traders care about and trade. So although the cross may have gone nowhere for 12 months, I assure you fortunes were made and lost trading the movements between the 1.53 low and 1.67 high.

Menelaus - if you can beat a 30% p a return on capital, you can come and work for me. Trouble is, I haven't read any evidence of your performance. Make a call. Will the £ be above or below its $ at any fixed point that you care to name?

That's great

I love posts that are humorous, especially the "you can come work for me part". Priceless.

If you only knew.

And you can expect a heallthy bonus if you calculate 30% appreciation your way.

The missing thing out of all this is the size of your investment. I remember some mug not long ago on the footie forum boasting about having backed Man U at 1.40 for 100 quid and won. That's 40pc return on his investment, by the way, which is better than yours. The problem is 40 quid would buy you a shoeshine where I live. I strongly suspect your 30pc return wouldn't either.

I'll let you know if any mail room positions come open at my firm.

united- melly will not make a call- as we all know.

I was hoping he would so I could take the opposite side of the trade. Doing the opposite of melly is a sure fire winner.

mr ben - menelaus did kind of give you a clue on 18th Jan

menelaus, 18th Jan - A "buy apple" call is impotent at this point. The hedge funds know that, those fanboys blinded by the brand will realize it too late.


Stock up 18% since that pronouncement.