The recessions over. The good times are coming.

**** a hoop

cook a hoop.

Yes!!!!!!

the financial masters who own obama will want a good year in 2012, just as they wanted a bad one in 2008.

Overall though Menelaus if this is  confidence management; they are doing a v. good job. I believe em. Isn’t it strange that this is perfect timing for obama to totally walk; tickertape flying; into his 2nd term. Can we expect similar stunts from Osborne in the run up to the election.


It turns out the solution to a debt problem is piling on more debt !!! Who woudda thunk ?

They are not only managing perceptions, it's a lot worse than that, they are MANIPULATING perceptions. All the numbers they are reporting are bogus. ALL OF THEM. But with a complicit media and a public still half-asleep, who's going to call them on it?

This reeks of desperation in my opinion when you have to rely not only stealth money printing to prop the markets up, not only a continuous bombardment of "recovery is around the corner" stories by paid shills, but you end up having to report data an eight standard deviations beat on consensus......while at the same time china is slowing down and europe is imploding.

Which will make the eventual and unavoidable correction....scratch that, unavoidable crash, all that more dramatic.

At a micro level, I'm looking at an entry point to short, this rally has far outlived it's welcome.

Here's one chap today who doesn't beilieve the recession is over, and he knows the real data, not the bogus ones released for public consumption:

Bob Evans (Chicago FED): "US economy still needs substantial FED support and the FED should be willing to tolerate higher inflation"

Here's one chap today who doesn't beilieve the recession is over, and he knows the real data, not the bogus ones released for public consumption:

Bob Evans (Chicago FED): "US economy still needs substantial FED support and the FED should be willing to tolerate higher inflation"

Thought as much Menalaus.

I have been thinking a lot about this idea of modern capitalism running on debt. If we see debt as owing x ammount of work or labour; then is not the whole idea debt bondage?

Cannot strike, cannot leave job, cannot lose job, when boss says jump then you say how high. Why? coz you have to keep paying out that labour you owe. Got to keep working or you will never do all the work you owe and your mortgage will be round your neck till you die.

Or put all your hope in house price booms to inflate all your debt bondage away.

If we see debt as owing x ammount of work or labour; then is not the whole idea debt bondage?

it's not the idea but it's the result (or it would be if government didn't keep bailing out those in debt).

Even Robert Peston is saying that last week we where crock a hoop but now we are just an economic crock.  On the beeb this morning neither he nor the chancellor of the exchequer where denying that that are now technically in recession; again!!.

It looks like there's now  no way we swerve the double dip as easily as I just avoided the censor.

Peston’s take on Europe was slightly deferrent than most on last week . Last week the line was Europe’s fkd but us and the yanks are  laughing. On the other hand Peston reckoned the the markets where relaxed about w Frances down grading (yawn) last week; but not this week. And all are now saying Europe is not irrelevant to the UK and if they are fkd we are fkd. And Europe is looking fkd.

What a difference a week makes. They are all having a laugh aren’t they. No-one has a clue.

The only excuse I can think of is that whenever they think they can get away with it they drip feed us some massive lies. Last week was a good example. The plan is that the optimists amongst us absorb the lies into their subconscious and it helps us evade reality and we do not believe or notice the truth when it hits them in the face . Like today.

Note how I very diplomatically said optimists and not idiots.

What do I believe?; I believe what I am told. However I also confidently think the boffins are taking the p1ss because they are saying one thing one week and the opposite the next.

Why’s that then? Well Osborne is the key. You see children you might not know this but Politicians hate giving bad news and will lie through there teeth to avoid it. Good news they love.
Osborne is denying non of the bad news. Therefore its so obvious and so bad even he cannot evade it.


Never mind China will save us coz the City of London is full of more economic geniuses the rest of the world put together. And the Chinese love us don't they.


Just don’t mention the Opium wars and the way they devastated China for the best part of a century.

Even Robert Peston is saying that last week we where crock a hoop but now we are just an economic crock.  On the beeb this morning neither he nor the chancellor of the exchequer where denying that we are now technically in recession; again!!.

Idiot.

The only excuse I can think of is that whenever they think they can get away with it they drip feed us some massive lies

Lie is all the can do at this point. The alarming thing is not that they lie, they always do. The alarming thing is that the overwhelming majority of the public wants them to lie. They have become so dependent on the nanny state, they want to believe the lies. They refuse to believe that the government can't solve everything. They have been conditioned to depend on big brother to make everything return to "normal" again, despite what they witness with their own eyes would lead them to reach a different conclusion. Orwell didn't go far enough.

What do I believe?; I believe what I am told

Why melv? Why believe them when time and again it turns out they lie. Blatantly, in our faces and without shame. At what point do you say, "I'm not going to accept what they say until I research, investigate, analyze, get alternate points of view and THEN, draw my own conclusions"? What will it take?

research, investigate, analyze, get alternate points of view.

My research is on here, now and is this. Alternatives to your investigations; Menalaus do not feel strongly convincing at all. Niether do points of view oppossed to yours.

I hope thats enough of a gauntlet thrown down to any who think that we will ever be back to where we where 6 years ago. When standard of living, disposalable money and the feeling that we can borrow for ever where all flying free and high and  we felt that all we had to do was  wait till our house price inflates our debts away.

Never mind those who think that we can get back to ( which we will have to to overtake china) when we  had coal, iron,cheap labour, no welfare state, one of the best sytems of govt in the world, led in all burgeoning technologies,the best navy  and overwhelming firepower in the worldand an an empire to dump our goods on.

The latter two viewpoints are best summed up thus


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h1tY83PKwjc&feature=related


Come on the all you altrnative pointers. No wishful thinking or other dreamer behaviuour please.

Suffice it to say that nothing is absolute in economics.
You can research and extrapolate all you like, but you're still only guessing at what might happen.
Evn if the politicians all spouted the lines on here of the likes of Menelaus, they would still be accused of lying and manipulating to achieve some ulterior aims.
The markets will ultimately decide.
Till then enjoy.

The markets will ultimately decide.

There are two Gods alive and kicking in the secualr world. God the Markets and God the science with his only begotten son; technology.

Neither of these are Gods and neither is going to make it all OK.

Faith in the markets and or science is a an irrational superstitious belief; infact a form of religion.

you're missing the point. i have no faith in alex mcleish but he'll be picking the team at the weekend.

cockahoop works btw

Is there any likliehood that inflation falls to or below 2% by the end of this year? (Granted the massive leap of faith to accept their published figures)

c0ck a hoop with a zero probably works

Is there any likliehood that inflation falls to or below 2% by the end of this year? (Granted the massive leap of faith to accept their published figures)

Don't ask me. Infaltion and house prices both have me beat. Low inflation and no house price collapse. With all the money printing we should be heading for hyperinflation. Menalaus won't like it but everyones saying that inflation will stay low.Some are indeed promising 2%. I do not get it.he will disrespect me for beliving em all. I jsut can't acept that every single word is lies. Though I know it probably is.Confused? you bet and I know a bit. Imagine what Joe public thinks.I think he gives up thinking as a bad job.

I am still saying that europe is relevant to our economy. Therefore we are in the lap of the Greek gods.

And surely the dficit is a problem too isn't it?? and all we do is borrow.

You & me both. House prices in the current environment are hard to fathom. They used to say it was driven by 1st time buyers, yet surely few of them can afford the required current deposits.

With all the money printing we should be heading for hyperinflation

melv, don't make the same false assumption as our resident forum village idiot. My position has been consistent: "hyperinflation is the way this ends", not "hyperinflation is how this ends.... tomorrow". Big difference.

The real inflation we are witnessing know, and I believe my lying eyes not the manipulated government numbers, is running at least double the official number. This is the result of "leakage" form all the money printing (that's why no hyperinflation yet). Most of the printed money is still sitting as excess reserves with the CBs. The CBs took in garbage paper from the banks at par to prevent the collapse of their balance sheets, hence their insolvency. The bank deposited that "money" back with the CB earning arbitrage interest at the tax payer's expense. Some of the money however ended up speculating in risk assets (that's the CBs made sure equities didn't collapse) and in commodities. That is what is driving inflation so far.

So where is this headed?

The total credit market (debt owed) in the US alone is $50 trillion. This is the market Bernanke is trying to revive, to get growth again through renewed lending. So far he is failed. That's because the FED expanded their balance sheet (ie, bought toxic assets) by $1.8 trillion, $1.6 trillion of which is sitting in excess reserves. Hardly a dent, in a collapsing $50 trillion credit market with an unabated rate of defaulting paper because in reality things in the real economy are getting worse, not better. There's massive more printing to come.

But it goes further than that. The US has a debt anywhere between $120-200 trillion (yes, that's with a T) depending whose numbers you want to believe, if you include their unfunded liabilities (medicare, medicaid, social security). The US is running $1.5 trillion annual deficits as far as the eye can see, and a $500 billion annual trade deficit. And this is where it gets ugly. These deficits represent about 13pc of GDP against a purported 2pc GDP growth. I don't have to have a PHD in mathematics to figure out that is a negative return on investment, about -15pc compounded annually. I also don't have to have a PHD in economics to figure out that there is massive money printing coming to cover this ever widening hole because it won't happen through organic growth.

This stuff isn't rocket science.

Hyperifnation is how this ends......we're just not there yet.

1100+ days of the same drivel.

of course official inflation figures are a lie, only melly is the teller of truth.

gold is not reaaly down, its up- melly logic.

the sad thing is ,there are still some dimwits here who think melly " seems to know more than the rest of us"

give me strength.

Gold is a loooong ways from under $1,000 benny.

Worse call ever made on this forum, AND YOU OWN IT.

Hows that french villa going MR Boutique CEO?

Oh yes indeedy there has been plenty of good times are coming talk. House prices up; inflation down; various figures better than expected. All boolshit and lies isn't it. All too keep the man in the street  from panicing and selling his house.

Yep all cr@p. Yesterday the IMF says the whole world is fkd. Today we learn that the ecomomy is contracting and we are in recession. This is the truth is it not?

Meanwhile Meanalus says the banks are sitting on a mountain of cash but they dare not circulate it because that is the defination of hyperinflation. So what are they doing with it. Playing silly boogers as usual methinks

So what are they doing with it

Are you serious?!?!

Who do you think is buying the markets? Who do you think is speculating with commodities in the face of a global recession? Who do you think is now funding bankrupt EZ sovereigns by buying their cr@p debt?

Sounds like Playing silly boogers as usual methinks.Any thing to make people think nothing is really happening. Playing for time hoping something will turn up. Free nonpoluting portable energy probably.

Why should I research what kind of silly boogery the silly boogers are doing. I listen to this R4 programme for 2 minutes before having to lay down a few notes.

It was "The bottom line" in assocaition with the open university. Surely not a comedy or a moonshine fest.If they where being ironic they had me fooled. Basicaly this female american finance wizard said the following without any contradiction from a bunch of other money Guru's. And what she said is this. In the US the recession is over and here come the good times. Magic!!!!!!! how have they done it?????????????.

Well they have "lent" loads of "money" to the banks at virtually zero interest. Banks are lending again and the banks are now making more money now than they where at the hieght of the credit bubble. The cause of all our woes is that we are not following suit and we must give the banks so much money that they are no longer afraid of lending. This is becasue the cause off all our woes is that the por little banks are frightened of lending and we must make the playground much nicer sweeter kinder and sfer so they can go out and play without being scared.

I kid you not the panel actaully said the banks must be encourged to go ahead and do exactly what they where doing when they caused the cedit bubble and caused the inevitable bust.

One of the 4 panel actually described the bust as;.. when everyone finally saw that the emperor had no clothes. Without blinking they all agreed that we need to be bold and start hallucinanting again.

Do I really need graphs, maths and wierd and wonderful formula to see that this is all silly boogery.

As you know I always believe experts. But if I am to believe this bunch my head will explode.

I think the truth is that Obama has simply b()ll**** himself into a 2nd term.

I think the truth is that Obama has simply b()llshiiiited himself into a 2nd term.

The Fed have said that they will be keeping interest rates low until 2014. So, they see no recovery until 2014 at the earliest? In the meantime interest rates have flattened here in Canada; mortgages now 2.99% ready for the traditional spring upturn. Bit early imo; I'm still shovelling snow and expect to do so for a month or two more yet.
Obama for a second term? Of course; no credible competition from the GOP for a start.

Al. If I put my exploding head on and think that all the fed needs to do is flood the banks with imaginary free money till 2014 there are still two things outside the box.

One; do the financial powers that be care about deficits or not?

The other thing is the set of all the things can could go wrong. Events dear boy events. What happens is China wobbles. And more to the point in Europe what happens if our sticking plaster on the ero comes off. And what about the Germans who will fight money printing every step of the way. They have good reason they know where it leads.


Lets just hope its not a US sticking plaster to get the electtion won and leave worry about the future till next year.

And more to the point in Europe what happens if our sticking plaster on the euro comes off.

There is little, if any evidence that the financial powers care about deficits Melv, so I assume that printing fiat is still the preferred course of action. Aren't the Germans printing too?
It could be that Euroland will shrink, losing one or two members, Greece and Portugal? Doomed by high interest rates on borrowing together with GDP and consequent losses of tax revenue. Spain? Italy? Ireland? Who knows?

Thanks Al. I have learnt something.

Thats why I post on here and thats why I write in the style I do.

Meant to write "with falling GPD".

"The reccesions over; the good times are coming."

Say the CBI today. They are the experts. They are the experts on the subject of expertism. Therefore I believe em.

Some on the other hand say its not all over and everything is still in the lap of the gods. Greek Gods I imagine.But it should be ok; in the end; after a certain amount of hardship.

Others; and I think Menelaus is one; are saying that the structural damage is so deep that all that can be done is paper over the cracks until everythng caves in big time and we are all living in the misery that is Greece.

They can't all be telling the truth. In fact only one of these can be right.

Oh I forgot my  little idea; nobody has a clue whats going on at all. Except that we and the Americans are printing money like there is no history and the printing press has just been invented. That could also be true.


The CBI are saying that we are going to export loads of stuff ( will pretend that I did not read that the wall St journal  headlined "January; Chinese imports slump") and industry is buying loads of machinery equiptment and kit. Little by little we are going to grow more and more.Our living standards will drop a bit but don't worry it won't get as bad as Greece.

We will see. I will return to this thread next year and find out if the CBI is lying through its teeth or not.

I often wonder how 11 million Greeks have managed to get them themselves so much in debt. They can't all be stupid greedy irresponsible reckless spendthrift wastrells. Actually I know they are not. Go on holiday; you will see thousands of Greeks working there @rses off. They have been misled by greedy thieving lying corrupt self seeking bstrds at the top. Nevermind; can't happen to us can it?