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02 Dec 11 15:08
Date Joined: 12 Jul 11
| Topic/replies: 59,294 | Blogger: xmoneyx's blog
reccesion looming EU/UK
Pause Switch to Standard View why is stockmarket going UP?
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Report Menelaus December 3, 2011 10:58 AM GMT
cheap money
Report Sir Denis Eton-Hogg December 3, 2011 10:18 PM GMT
its not going up. gone nowhere in the last decade (down in real terms)
Report Menelaus December 3, 2011 10:56 PM GMT
I think the question was asked in relation to the massive UP move last week in the face of just about EVERYONE revising their growth forecast DOWN, some even predicting a recession, not the last decade.

What are those "real terms" by the way? Wink
Report Lix December 4, 2011 10:16 PM GMT
being pumped up by QE innit. Peeps gotta put their money somewhere .
Report Rollo Tomasi December 5, 2011 3:52 PM GMT
It's nearly Christmas
Report Menelaus December 5, 2011 4:54 PM GMT
You're all wrong. This is the real reason why the market is surging:

The Eurozone private sector economy contracted for the third month running in November. At 47.0, up from 46.5 in October, the final Composite Output Index signalled a slight easing in the rate of decline, but was weaker than the earlier flash estimate of 47.2. Output of the combined manufacturing and service sectors declined across all of the big-four nations for the first time since July 2009.

and this:

The Institute for Supply Management’s non-manufacturing index unexpectedly fell to 52 last month from 52.9 in October, the Tempe, Arizona based-group said today. The median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey called for a gain to 53.9. Fifty is the dividing line between expansion and contraction.
Falling home prices, slow wage growth and limited job gains may make it difficult for households to sustain the pace of spending after the holiday shopping season.
Report Menelaus December 5, 2011 5:03 PM GMT
Oh, and this, how could I possibly forget:

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. forecast that commodities may rally 15 percent in the next 12 months, sticking with an “overweight” recommendation on raw materials and predicting Brent crude may surge to highest level since 2008. Brent may jump to $127.50 per barrel at the end of next year and $135 at the end of 2013.
Report FINE AS FROG HAIR December 5, 2011 9:40 PM GMT
OK Menelaus smarty pants.
When should we start our shorting ? Or is that in the too difficult basket ?
Report richguy December 6, 2011 6:03 PM GMT
great question, why no response?
Report FINE AS FROG HAIR December 7, 2011 6:48 AM GMT
Because Menelaus has decided to block my posts because he apparently finds them not to his taste.
If you don't know already, Menelaus will provide you with some very good, detailed analyses of what has happened, and what indeed might happen.
But when it comes to what actually will happen, I'm afraid he is just like the rest of us.
He will get some forecasts right and some wrong.
Report PierreLaRogue December 7, 2011 12:32 PM GMT
THEY need to keep these Markets UP, THEY have no choice, THEY WILL DO ANYTHING to keep power, THEY will falsify unemployment THEY will give people FREE homes, why? because they can see the people are waking up, THEY need to keep them asleep. THEY will do everything they can to keep markets UP until after the presidential election. I am PLR and I approve this message.
Report Menelaus December 7, 2011 2:11 PM GMT
I kind of get the drift of what you are trying to say but your message would have been a lot more powerful if instead of THEY, you had mention THEM by name...THE BANKING CARTEL. I couldn't disagree more about the "people waking up", most are still in a deep slumber (I present as evidence what's being posted on here on a daily basis). And last but not least, are you aware that the next presidential election is not until next November? Long time to keep those plates spinning me thinks. I am Menelaus and I rest my case.
Report Rollo Tomasi December 7, 2011 4:07 PM GMT

What do you think banks are going to do with all that cheap money but buy stocks, commodities and buy Euro debt to arb the yield minus cheap borrowing rate, courtesy of taxpayers. It's free money in time for Christmas.
Report Menelaus December 7, 2011 4:13 PM GMT
This was the FIRST response posted to xmoneyx's question when he started this thread:

Menelaus Joined: 03 Feb 05
Replies: 1330 03 Dec 11 10:58 
cheap money

I'll try and keep my answers more brief in the future LaughSillyLaugh
Report FINE AS FROG HAIR December 7, 2011 4:59 PM GMT
You are all a bunch of paranoid conspiracists.
Do any of you for example have the slighest idea of the fundamental differences of opinions between ( say) Merkel and Sarkozy.
And these sorts of differences and debates are taking place at all levels of govt. cabinets, banking and general corporate bordrooms everywhere.
There is no cartel running things for their own selfish short term benefit.
A very active and intense polcy debate is taking place at all levels of society, and a consensus is and will emerge, and the current problems will gradually recede ( to be of course inevitably replaced by a new set).
It's the way the world works.
Nothing that is happening today has not happened before.
For sure some of the current monetary technical issues may be new, but that's all.
But nothing more fundamentally new from a human nature point of view.
Menelaus is nothing but a big windbag, with a point of view so biased and one eyed as to be virtually useless.
Report FINE AS FROG HAIR December 7, 2011 5:03 PM GMT
And that is not to say for example that a default in Greece will not happen in the near future.
But if it dies it will be contained and handled in due course.
You might all probably be much better off setting your future investment strategies based on that fundamental observation.
Report FINE AS FROG HAIR December 7, 2011 5:03 PM GMT
"--But if it does ---"
( Freudian mistype ?)
Report FINE AS FROG HAIR December 7, 2011 7:15 PM GMT
You're right max.
Many theoreticians talk about things in the long run, whereas most people are only really concerned about the short term vis a vis their daily lives.
But " dopey" sounds good to me when talking about the prospects of correctly forecasting the finacial mkts. on any reasonable time frame.
Report Al Dente December 7, 2011 8:04 PM GMT
Fine As, "Nothing that is happening today has not happened before."
I became more edgy when I saw the Goldman Sachs men move into position, and I don't remember this happening before.
Report Menelaus December 7, 2011 8:26 PM GMT
Maximum Joined: 28 May 02
Replies: 143 07 Dec 11 18:51 
I think one should strive to be more specific regarding the time horizon,
when one does forecasts
and when one talk about investment possibilities.
Otherwise it become very dopey.

Why? Isn't "inevitably" specific enough for you? //snark

"Inevitably" we'll all die some day. It's what happens between today and then that makes all the difference. Laugh

Al Dente Joined: 07 Jan 08
Replies: 112 07 Dec 11 20:04 
Fine As, "Nothing that is happening today has not happened before."
I became more edgy when I saw the Goldman Sachs men move into position, and I don't remember this happening before.

"Almost everything happening today has NEVER happened before". There fixed it for him. Laugh
Report FINE AS FROG HAIR December 7, 2011 8:47 PM GMT
See what I mean.
Menelaus thinks he is living in a world of totally new pardigms. And he is one of its prophets. Sad really.
Al Dente
Just read " Money and Power. How Goldman Sachs came to rule the world " by William D. Cohan.
The GS boys have done it many, many times before.
That is certainly not a new development.
Report FINE AS FROG HAIR December 7, 2011 9:42 PM GMT
Ancient history.
Report Al Dente December 8, 2011 6:23 PM GMT
@ Fine As Frog Hair -
I rather think that it is a first for Goldman Sachs, that within the space of two weeks has succeeded in annexing the position of ECB President in the form of Draghi, who had spent his previous six years running the Bank of Italy; together with Monti as Prime Minister (and self appointed Minister of Economy and Finance)of Italy.

Not to mention the simultaneous appointment of Papademos as Prime Minister of Greece, the fellow who was Governor of the Bank of Greece when they joined the eurozone.

This of course lends more credence to those stories of how Draghi indulged in fiddlums, presumably with Papademos, to disguise the financial position of Greece and "improve" it with some dodgy financial instruments, thus enabling the 2000 qualification of Greece to enter the eurozone which it did on 1st January 2001.

The book that you refer to is an illustration of Goldman Sachs' philosophy, and the events of the first two weeks of November are surely a concern for anyone; after all Goldman Sachs started the whole wretched business in the first place.

Oh and by the way, I am merely an observer, not a "paranoid conspiracist".
Report FINE AS FROG HAIR December 8, 2011 6:37 PM GMT
I was more referring to the fact that Goldman Sachs has been nicknamed " Government Sachs" for many, many decades - or at least from the the time that Sidney Wienberg ran it.
They've always had their greedy fingers in these types of things and so, in essence, it is not a new revelation to observe that things are no different now.
Report FINE AS FROG HAIR December 8, 2011 6:38 PM GMT
" --- Sidney Weinberg --- "
Report Sir Denis Eton-Hogg December 12, 2011 8:30 PM GMT
Nothing that is happening today has not happened before.

Peak global oil production is happening today (or maybe a few years ago). This has not happened before.
Report FINE AS FROG HAIR December 14, 2011 10:11 PM GMT
What's with the huge commidity price drops today. Gold, oil, copper etc.
Fundamental ? Just hedge funds dashing for cash ?
Report FINE AS FROG HAIR December 15, 2011 8:44 PM GMT
Btw to the OP.
The stock market is only going up depending on what time frame you're looking at.
Depends entirely on your entry point.
Of course needless to say I got in at the perfect low point 3 years ago and am now up over 40%.
I just wish eh ?
Report Mc Moonbeam December 17, 2011 1:49 AM GMT
The forces just refuse to accept the world (uk ecomony) is in decline

I bid on an apartment recently .. they rang back .. Nooo that's far too low

Have you had a survey done ..

No.. why should I .. i'm a cash buyer ..

Well .. They'll tell you how much it is worth

I don't need to Pay Them to tell Me how much it's ***** Worth Laugh
Report FINE AS FROG HAIR December 17, 2011 8:34 PM GMT
If the surveyor is truly independent, then they may play a useful role for you.
They maybe will see things you don't, unless you are a real property expert.
It works both ways you know.
They might even advise that you are offering too much.
Report Mc Moonbeam December 18, 2011 12:56 AM GMT
Thanks for the advice Frog but i tend to disagree ..

It's all a monoploly .. you pay them .. to tell them .. what they .. want to know ... 

**** peoples natural wit , guile , and heavens behold .. intelligence

Do you /they think a guy that's made that much cash doesn't know how to handle it himself Confused

I would've offered slightly higher but they put me off and lost a potential cash customer due to greed

She made the point of telling me ... you're dealing with a CORPORATE Company You Know !!!!!!!!!!

a corporate company ... FFS ... Do you think i don't know that's nothing but a ponzi scheme on a lotta lotta paper Happy
Report Mc Moonbeam December 18, 2011 12:57 AM GMT
aka ... de Bank ..
Report Mc Moonbeam December 18, 2011 12:58 AM GMT
that loses me stock faster than i can eat pizza .....
Report Mc Moonbeam December 18, 2011 1:00 AM GMT
on a side note i think it's Criminal the way the market rises every time there's another round of quantative easing ..

It's meant to boost the Economy ... not the greed that already has it all !!
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