Tradefair & Financials

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14 Nov 11 22:09
Date Joined: 27 Mar 10
| Topic/replies: 18,117 | Blogger: UTI's blog
Tulips, South Sea, 1920s stock market, dotcom, property......

Gold was about 300 bucks an ounce a few years back wasn't t, now it's about 1500 bucks.  Everyone saying get your money on gold, it's the safest place to be etc - shows all the hall marks of a bubble about to burst imo.

you know what i've always thought would be a good scam - get some fancy hot shot chemist professor guy to send out a few soundbites about how "we're currently researching into making Gold, and we've had a number of breakthroughs".  would send markets into chaos.  You know there is tons of gold in a square km of sea water, they just haven't worked out how to extract it due its lack of reactivity.  But the way technology moves on these days, who's to say they won't work it out one day?
Pause Switch to Standard View Is gold just another bubble like all...
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Report cush November 14, 2011 11:00 PM GMT
"My Precious." (metal)

An interesting idea with, at least, some forward thinking, UTI.

I'm not sure Gordon Brown was as forward thinking when he sold off some of the UK Gold reserves, at low prices, so that he could bolster his "economic miracle."

Look where we are now! Look where he is now. I doubt Gordo cares though. The Wages for his "incompetence" are in his bank account. Whole of life, inflation busting, pension plan in place. Job done. A made man. Untouchable.
Report wykhamist2 November 15, 2011 8:28 AM GMT
Even Gordon's index-linked pension might become worthless one day if we get hyperinflation.

I doubt very much that any means to extract gold from seawater or anywhere else is likely to be cheaper than the current ways of mining it. Of course there are risks with any investment but right now it still seems like the least bad option.

I think I am right in saying that the inflation-adjusted price is still less than the previous peak.

If there is a bubble it would seem to be in the 'value' of paper money, one that has been inflating ever since governments started accumulating massive debts justified on the assumption of continual growth. Once it no longer becomes possible to have sustained growth the whole house of cards comes crashing down. At that point you are probably marginally better off holding gold than other asset classes.
Report Menelaus November 15, 2011 12:16 PM GMT
wykhamist gave you the proper answer, here's mine.

Do you own gold (and I don't mean your wife's bling - I mean as an investment)? Does anyone in your immediate family? How about your siblings? Your friends? How about people you work with? How many people do you know who actually do own gold, and what percentage of the overall population would they be?

Are lights starting to go on yet?
Report FINE AS FROG HAIR November 15, 2011 11:49 PM GMT
I sometimes think you gold bugs want a worldwide depression.
Remember what they say about wishing too hard for something ?
Report gatespeed November 16, 2011 2:30 AM GMT
your spot on Menelaus

you wouldnt believe the percentage of gold holdings in Aus retiree's accounts if i told you.... it is absolutely unbelievable
Report PatraTheCat November 16, 2011 1:32 PM GMT
An interesting idea with some interesting replies imo. With global financial matters I always think it's important to bear in mind that nobody really understands this kind of thing - too many variables that are too hard to predict.

According to Wikipedia though, current estimates are just 10g of gold per cubic km. Apparently this figure was frequently overestimated in the past.
Report FINE AS FROG HAIR November 16, 2011 8:50 PM GMT
You're wrong.
Apparently Menelaus understands it all perfectly.
No doubts at all in his cupboard.
Report UTI November 16, 2011 10:19 PM GMT
wykhamist: yes it isn't cheaper to extract it now.  But it is there, and we know it is there.  How do we know that the technology won't arrive that allows us to extract it cheaply though - surely that turns the markets on its @rse.  How do we know they won't work out how to make gold either?  Just neutrons, protons and electrons - get them together in the right quantities and you have gold.  Can we honestly say that in the next 50 years they won't work out how to make it?
Report Menelaus November 16, 2011 11:37 PM GMT
How do we know that King Arthur won't return soon to lead us all into Camelot where white unicorns sh1t kilo bars of gold, and there's so much of it none of us bother bending down to pick them up?

You live your reality, I'll live mine.
Report FINE AS FROG HAIR November 16, 2011 11:54 PM GMT
Your reality sounds mind boggling depressing and full of fear.
Not one to aspire to imo.
Report Mrben November 17, 2011 1:02 AM GMT
gold will capitulate  in the catastrophic markets  sell off that is  to come.

I remain short gold.
Report UTI November 17, 2011 8:54 PM GMT
I'm nottelling u, or anyone, what to think menelaus.  Generally speaking, unlike most on here, all I ever do is ask questions - if you can find a post where i've laid down the law and made any set in stone, or even rasonably confident predictions then i'l take that back.
Report Mrben November 18, 2011 12:57 AM GMT
repeat- get the fk out of gold.

buy back in if you want after the sell off. Stand by.
Report ahosang November 19, 2011 12:56 AM GMT
"I'm not sure Gordon Brown was as forward thinking when he sold off some of the UK Gold reserves, at low prices, so that he could bolster his "economic miracle."

A common mistake is to simplify the sales of gold by the UK and several European countries in the last 15 years. You must consider that gold, like any other form of money, requires credibility to function properly. Gold was dormant as the USD and its treasuries dominated the savings function.

Consider that in order to become activated as a credible wealth asset in the future, it needed to be dispersed out of its relatively closed circle of large holders.

Also consider whether the VALUE of European and British gold holdings has not risen considerably since 2000. While the tonnage has fallen(due to sales), the value of the retained tonnage has far surpassed the value of the stock held in 2000. Interesting gambit, no??

The interesting thing is that you implicitly recognise the worth of gold reserves - that you desire the UK to have them, but wish they were all there to realise the higher price. But would the price have been higher if there no sign of it flowing. Like any form of monetary medium(gold is not that valuable as a consumable), there is a relation between the unit value and the flow.

I do not assert that Brown knew anything about this potential future, but maybe his decision doesn't look so bad in light of these thoughts??
Report FINE AS FROG HAIR November 19, 2011 11:57 AM GMT
I'm pretty sure that GB would be more than happy with that sort of rewrite of history.
He would have to be more of an expert GO player than a chess one to have thought that many moves ahead.
Is he such ?
Report ahosang November 19, 2011 1:58 PM GMT
Absolutely no!!. GB is just one man, and could not make such plans. Let's not focus on individuals though.

Inputs come from many quarters. I dont give him credit, merely reflect on the scenario as it unfolds...
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