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20 Oct 11 05:15
Date Joined: 25 Oct 03
| Topic/replies: 5,929 | Blogger: Mrben's blog
just a quick check in here.

I sold all my holdings to invest in the property project i'm currently in.brilliant timing.All out b4 the big falls. I'm kinda watching from the sidelines a bit, not involved everyday.

However today it was announced that iron ore prices have fallen for the first time in  3 years. China is going to have a hard fall from grace sooner or later. Demand has fallen. The world can no longer ride chinas coat tails. Add this to the european and US situations.

  My advice is sell everything you've got bar the roof over your head.Everything is going to fall,  gold, silver, shares, commodities  etc. The rush for the lifeboats has begun. Add this to superfast trading and you will see 500 point fluctuations become the norm.

   Perversely the USD will rise  as the world falls backwards into the US 's lap. The AUD will slid back under parity and then back into the 80's if not lower  during 2012/13. Don't buy the line from politicians that they can fix it.They will just keep sitting an their hands adding to the problems.

   Asset inflation is over my friends,for the foreseeable future. Dont buy a business, house or any other kind of "asset' hold onto your cash and job if you can.

Avoid falling  for the currency debasement argument  that says gold will rise.Its going to plummet as investors simply bail out for ca****  already fallen from 2000$.

  Sell now and buy back at rock bottom prices later on.

Show More
Report wykhamist2 October 20, 2011 11:48 AM BST
It is certainly true normally that cash is king in these sorts of situations. But this time round the situation is more serious because paper money itself could also become risky. The greenback won't suddenly become worthless or anything but the endgame could be hyperinflation.

Gold would certainly fall too in a big sell off but ultimately it will still be worth something, which is more than can be said for most other asset classes, possibly including cash. So for now I am sticking with just a few defensive blue chips, gold and a bit of cash to use to try to snap up bargains. I don't want to be 100% in cash and suddenly find all I have is some bits of paper to use for lighting a fire.
Report Menelaus October 20, 2011 1:09 PM BST
It's pretty hard to read benny's drivel and keep quiet. I think the orphanage he's now working at doesn't have access to the internet.

China has shown weakness for months, global economic data has been pointing at a recession for months, equities have done nothing but puke for months, gold had plunged a $300+ from its high, copper has been getting decimated but benny *TODAY* wakes up that "asset inflation is over" because *TODAY* it was "announced iron ore prices have fallen".

You can't make this stuff up. This is akin to deciding where to drive on the road ahead by looking at objects in the rear view mirror that are fast disappearing in the horizon.

(Even at that he gets it wrong as to how events will unfold because he assumes policy makers and central banks will sit on their hands while deflation sets in.  I'll say no more though, I've decided to stop being in the business of opening eyes that are firmly shut)
Report Mrben October 21, 2011 4:05 AM BST
your problem is melly, apart from being a complete dropkickShocked is that despite banging on for 2 years about  doom and gloom, you have been unable to make a single buck. Was'nt it you who a few threads ago was recommending those who bought gold at 2000$ and now its 1600$ to hold?Mischief.What a turkey.

  The penguins have virtually all lined up now. This is the time to GET SET if you want to trade the downside. The caveat is that it still may take many months to creep down.Or it may happen overnight.I don't know. But I favour the latter.

My main sells are gold, silver, copper,any metal really.My biggest sell is the AUD, and the dow. I'm not going to pretend I know by how much or when.BUT, they will all be much much lower at sometimes in the  next 2 years.

The aussie economy is totally dependant on China, via resources.Our economy is currently turning down big time.The statistics wont show it for months, but believe me, we are headed into a big time recession.BIG. The reserve bank is tipped to cut interest rates on the first tuesday in november and I'm betting the "language" will hint at more cuts.Watch the AUD plummet that day or within a few days.

Likely the AUD will rise in the days prior to that tuesday in a manipulation scenario.Thats when I'm looking to get set.

The AUD is a massive sell. But you may have to hold the position for a while with a wide stop.On a personal basis I'm girding my loins for a humungous position. Selling above parity and looking to exit in the low 80's sometime in the next 2 years.

  As for the Dow, its still over 11,000 ,   hard to believe , given their economy.
Report Muqbil October 21, 2011 5:25 AM BST
Why is gold a sell, particularly over the longer term?
Report Menelaus October 21, 2011 12:37 PM BST
Well Benny, given your outstanding record of predictions on here, who's to argue with you. A flash from the past:

Mrben    Joined: 25 Oct 03
Replies: 2828 25 Jan 11 03:09

I have a long range bet based on gold going under 1000 in the last 3 mths of 2011 and the first 3 mths of 2012.

Mrben    Joined: 25 Oct 03
Replies: 2936 14 Feb 11 02:00
Im betting that ALL markets are headed higher.Maybe shanghai excepted.

Too hard to pick day to day but I'm betting that 18 months from now the DOW will be around 16,000.Thats about 25% higher from here. The footsie could go up say 20%, pushing it beyond 7000.


"My main sells are gold, silver, copper,any metal really."

Will please someone tell this fool that this bus left the platform about two months ago.

As for the Dow, its still over 11,000 ,   hard to believe , given their economy.

Will please also someone tell this fool that the DOW has disconnected from the US economy over two years ago now.

Evidently news travels very slow to Australia.

Report Menelaus October 21, 2011 3:40 PM BST
"My main sells are gold, silver, copper,any metal really."

Gold UP nearly 2pc
Silver UP nearly 4pc
Copper UP nearly 6pc

DOW UP over 200 points

Great timing again Benny, I hope you never lose your job at the orphanage, you'll end-up panhandling in the streets.

Report Mrben October 22, 2011 2:03 AM BST
thanks melly, your right, it is great timing. Love it to go higher before getting set.You really don't understand how to make a buck do you.Shocked

Make sure next week when the market has a corresponding down day you make a suitable post as to why.

Makes no difference, 6 months from now all will be lower.
Report Mrben October 24, 2011 6:12 AM BST
Huge rally on european hopes for wednesday. Hope it all goes thru the roof.

I will be posting my 2 year shorts after this sucker rally concludes.

melly, you little banker , you. which side of bed did yu get out of this morning? Inflation or deflation? rally or depression?

Which side are you on today?

come on melly- make a conclusive statement plz.EAch way! each way !each way!- I hear you say.
Report Menelaus October 24, 2011 10:17 AM BST
You should have started a new thread titled "today's joke"

"I will be posting my 2 year shorts after this sucker rally concludes."

I thought you posted SELL SELL SELL *BEFORE* this rally started. Now it's *after* it concludes, how nice. And when that might be I ask. Laugh  Most metals are up 5-6pc and copper 10pc since you posted you mug. Also, you are the only self-proclaimed trader in the history of the markets who trades with a 2 year planning horizon. Most of us trade the 5 minute chart. Laugh

"come on melly- make a conclusive statement plz"

I already have, numerous times, it's just that you are too dumb to understand it.

Oh wait, no need to start a new thread......YOU.ARE.THE.JOKE.

Report Menelaus October 24, 2011 9:18 PM BST
Way to go Benny, copper up more than 12pc since your SELL SELL SELL all metals post went up you clueless mug !!


Benny = the ultimate counter indicator

Report selina October 26, 2011 2:12 PM BST
Not exactly the most information thread that I've ever read.
Report selina October 26, 2011 2:12 PM BST
informative (not information)
Report Menelaus October 26, 2011 3:27 PM BST
How's this for "informative"?

Gold UP nearly $100
Silver UP nearly $3
Copper UP over 15pc
other metals up 5-10pc

since this went up:
"My main sells are gold, silver, copper,any metal really."

There's probably Pandas with more brains than this chap where he lives.
Report PierreLaRogue October 26, 2011 11:37 PM BST
I think with a total collapse gold could go down with the ship, but the way it went parabolic to $1900 when fear was high suggests it may not, short all industrial metals, palladium, iron, ect ect, and go long gold imo.
Report Mrben October 27, 2011 4:31 AM BST
Things are setting up beautifully for the coming short position.Especially in the AUD.I'm hoping it can get above 106 very shortly.

As usual melly fails to understand how to make a buck.

I will posting a new thread containing my 2 year trade  soon.
Report Muqbil October 27, 2011 12:05 PM BST
I think with a total collapse gold could go down with the ship, but the way it went parabolic to $1900 when fear was high suggests it may not, short all industrial metals, palladium, iron, ect ect, and go long gold imo.

My take is that gold will uncouple form the markets and fly when the markets tank.
Report Menelaus October 27, 2011 1:41 PM BST
"Things are setting up beautifully for the coming short position"

Just wondering, will you book the the 25pc losses you took since your post went up, or will you put it in a SIV and pretend they are not there?

"my 2 year trade"

How do you short metals for 2 years? Anyone know? Silly

Epic stupidity LaughLaughLaugh but does anyone expect anything different from this clueless mug by now?
Report PierreLaRogue October 27, 2011 3:13 PM BST
I'm following MrBen Laugh, it hit 1.06 and I don't like the aus dollar at this level.
Report Menelaus October 27, 2011 4:54 PM BST

" My advice is sell everything you've got bar the roof over your head.Everything is going to fall,  gold, silver, shares, commodities  etc"

"The AUD will slid back under parity and then back into the 80's if not lower  during 2012/13."

"My main sells are gold, silver, copper,any metal really."

When Benny as usual put those abortion of predictions up, equities were mostly 10pc lower, most metals over 10pc lower, copper about 20pc lower and the AUD at 1.03.

At least you didn't post "I'm following" 300bps ago........... in the wrong direction.  It would have blown whatever little money you had left in your trading account from waiting until the middle of this week to close those shorts you were taking a beating on. Wink
Report Menelaus October 27, 2011 5:07 PM BST
Seriously though, can someone post how you short metals for 2 years?

Report Whippet October 27, 2011 6:24 PM BST
through a cfd, with little leverage.
Report Menelaus October 27, 2011 7:04 PM BST
Oh yes of course  a CFD with a "little" leverage. Easy. Why didn't I think of that?

Oh wait, don't cash flows on these things get calculated every day? 
Doesn't rolling them forward when the trade is going against you mean you need to have sufficient margin to support the face value of the CFD? Doesn't a "little" leverage (say 5pc margin required) mean that at 20X a mere 5pc swing in the wrong direction of your trade results in 100pc loss of your position?

Oh yes a CFD with a "little leverage.......which means Benny blew up several times over by now.

Report Whippet October 27, 2011 7:53 PM BST
position trading medium-long term is alright. I was thinking something more like a 75% margin. Granted you aren't going to make huge returns but each to their own. You don't have to roll them forward if you are just trading the spot price btw, it just goes on indefinitely. Plus if you are going short you get interest paid to you every day Grin
Report Menelaus October 27, 2011 8:42 PM BST
How about playing it really safe and going with 100pc margin? Laugh

The point is I don't care what sort of investment vehicle your are using to trade a particular conviction, in order to profit you have to be on the right side of the trade. Period.

Benny posted "SELL SELL SELL" precisely at the wrong time, based on a lagging indicator that the market had priced in weeks ago and in complete ignorance of how "policy response" affects the markets.....and made an arse of himself again. All the tap dancing that came after ("it's setting up nicely fro my 2 year shorts" etc.) just simply made him look even more ridiculous. Comedy at it's best.
Report FINE AS FROG HAIR October 28, 2011 12:58 AM BST
What happened to the theory that you should sell into a rally then ?
Takes a brave man for sure, but many large profits have been obtained doing this.
And no I am not one of those brave souls.
But I wouldn't necessarily deride in general those who are, as Menelaus seems to be doing in picking on Benny ( a " soft" target in essence ) in the cruel manner he is.
I doubt whether Menelaus would get away with his sneering, condescending, know it all manner in the professional investment circles he apparently works in.
I think he probably comes on here to win a few easy victories against less qualified counterparts to compensate for being argued down incessantly at work by his peers ?.
Report what do i do now? October 28, 2011 8:12 AM BST
i always read this freds, especially as mr ben made me and a friend a nice few quid with an aussie dollar trade a while back.

this fred is a shame for 2 reasons:

1. because mr ben is quite obviously offside with this
2. peoples reactions, even gloating, at him being wrong.

im a big believer in karma, boys n girls.

anyway, thats the lecture over.

ive been so lucky not to get seriously hurt with all this. i cannot make this rally out at all. i mess about in dax and ftse opens and so keep an eye on it. how many day traders shorted the dax future waiting for the gap fill between 6177.5-6155? when the dax was at 6100, my comment to another trader was 'at christmas we could beasking ourselves, when the dax will ever trade 6000 again!'

if somebody can explain why the hell the markets are up here, then please knock yourselves out. any reasonable response/reason accepted.

good luck all.

ps allow me to put a trade up, then.

december dax future 6400 trading at the moment. high has just traded 10.5, but lets say 6400. stop 6510 oco 6160, to get that gap closed.(previous high 6470 4th aug, when sep was front, so allowing for silly stops and a bit of nonsense, thats why my stops there)

110 tick loss or 240 profit.
Report Menelaus October 28, 2011 8:13 PM BST
this fred is a shame for 2 reasons:

1. because mr ben is quite obviously offside with this
2. peoples reactions, even gloating, at him being wrong.

You are bang on right about number 1. Benny has been so far offside on this one, and the move was so sharp the other way, it would be enough to send a trader to the poor house........if he was actually trading real money instead of mouthing off on a public forum. Growing some minerals and admitting he really messed up is not in his DNA. As for number 2, I don't think gloating really describes it. No, no, certainly not, not gloating, it's too harsh. More like enjoying watching a brainless sap continue to display his massive ignorance and embarrass himself in public. Yeah, got it, that's it.

if somebody can explain why the hell the markets are up here, then please knock yourselves out. any reasonable response/reason accepted.

The markets have disconnected from the real economy and are now moving on anticipating policy-maker bailouts and central bank interventions. Deflation through defaulting paper on bank balance sheets, hence money/credit destruction, will not be allowed to set it. NO ONE WILL BE ALLOWED TO FAIL. Failed banks and failed sovereigns will be kept alive at all cost. And the only way policy-makers and central banks can achieve that is through.........drum roll please.......more debt leverage schemes, more financial engineering, more easing and accommodation (that's more money printing in case you are confused). In other words, central banks will try to INFLATE their way out of the problem. comes the answer to your question....... the markets rally on the relative advantage of owning assets (any assets) versus sitting on depreciating cash. It's that simple.

Anyone expecting that we'll just muddle along until we grow out of this just doesn't understand the power of exponents (exponential growth required to service compounded interest). The gig is up. It's over. Get over it. But the collapse of the system will not come by getting sucked into the deflation vortex. This collapse will come with a money printing orgy, that's how this ends.
Report FINE AS FROG HAIR October 28, 2011 8:31 PM BST
No it ends by people being taxed more eventually.
All this Govt. intervention has to be paid for eventually by joe public.
Report what do i do now? October 31, 2011 8:12 AM GMT
menelaus - so carry on printing, then? devalue cash and inflate us to the moon.

the hairy frog mentions taxation as the way out - but i personally think its gone too far for that. the figures we are talking about are just too big. the latest figure bandied about for the euro bailout is 1 trillion euros. 1,000,000,000,000 - is that enough zeros for u, sir? and thats should be enough for the piig countries - hopefully....

i agree 'the gig is up'. however the way u put it menelaus, it sounds a relatively 'soft landing'. i dont think its gonna be like that. i think its gonna be facking 'orrible.

heres a concept - a bit far maybe, but what do u think of this? eventually the government debts get too large and default happens. whats the odds of countries who default on their bonds having to give away/sell portions of that country?

the french had to sell louisiana years ago to pay for a war, the labour govt were trying to punt out the dartford crossing 2 years ago - how much do u think we would get for merseyside?
Report Menelaus October 31, 2011 8:47 AM GMT
I couldn't see the "taxation" solution posted, but if indeed that was proposed as the way out, it's laughable beyond belief. The financial engineering fictitious wealth that was created through those magical financial engineering derivatives, dwarfs by many multiples the real organic global economy. In other words, there's not enough money anywhere in existence to cover these bets when they default, never mind finding the money from already indebted taxpayers.....which will cause more slowdown in the real economy, more debts defaulting, more bank balance sheet deflation. In other words, add another layer onto the existing problem. Laughable.

This ends with a money printing orgy because the choice is simple. It's either allowing deflation and all its nasty side affects to take place now, or kick the can down the road and hope for a miracle by inflating your way out of the problem. There are no miracle solutions, they'll inflate until the currency breaks.

The chap who runs the world's most powerful central bank (thus the global banking cartel) has already decided it's inflation. He wrote about it before he became chairman ("we'll drop money from a helicopter if we have to"), if one cares to spend the time to find out. He speaks about it openly now ("no systemically important bank will be allowed to fail"), if one is willing to open their ears and listen. And he lives it, if one understands what all the "easing policies", "accommodation", "quantitative easing" buzz words really mean.

All we have to do now is.....WAIT.
Report what do i do now? October 31, 2011 4:57 PM GMT
menelaus - thanks for that reply. makes a lot of sense. what happens when the currency breaks? can a currency 'break'? surely inflating the world out of its debt is the only option.

in other news - the dax gap got filled about 15 mins ago..

which was nice. Grin
Report Menelaus October 31, 2011 6:23 PM GMT
can a currency 'break'?

They all eventually do, some have already vanished more quickly than others due to their own specific circumstances, others like the USD is proving more resilient because of it's global reserve currency status and the US military machine's enormous power and ability to ensure that Oil trades in USDs. It will fail too, especially now when the deflation hell that has descended upon us (defaulting paper on bank balance sheets)is unacceptable to the FED, it's just a question of time.

In a fiat monetary system, where money is created as debt, and is backed by nothing other than faith, exponential and continuous growth in the economy is required in order to be able to service compounded interest on the debt (on money/credit created). In a real world constrained by a myriad factors not the least of which is availability of cheap oil, that becomes mathematically impossible. This system was designed to fail from the very beginning. Central Bankers know that, it's just the ignorant public who still clueless. Like I said earlier, "the gig is up".

what happens when the currency breaks?

Simple. Those who have the currency want to get rid of it as soon as possible and those who don't have it, won't accept it.

I have no idea if you are being serious or if you are trolling but if you are being serious, I would strongly suggest we get your hands on some of these books and start reading them:

1. The Economics of Inflation - Constantino Bresciani-Turroni
2. Dying of Money - Jens. O. Parsons
3. Monetary Regimes and Inflation - Peter Bernholz
4. The Mystery of Banking - Murray Rothbard
5. When money Dies - Adam Fergusson
Report FINE AS FROG HAIR November 1, 2011 2:14 AM GMT
For every " negative" economist like Menelaus who argues and thinks that it can only end badly, there is a " positive" econmist who argues and thinks it won't.
I listen to and believe the latter types.
Makes for a much healthier outlook on life than Menelaus would appear to want us all to have.
Prophets of doom are always amongst us, but thankfully they all disappear eventually with rheir tails between their legs, totally discredited.
Report what do i do now? November 1, 2011 7:40 AM GMT
menelaus - i am not a troll - just genuinely interested and concerend as to the possible outcome of all this. i trade futures, have seen loads of my pals not be able to trade yesterday cos of the MF debacle.

hairy frog - im with u in having a positve outlook, im the karma kid. i just dont get how the debt can be repaid. its too great to pay back - the interest on govt debt is unthinkable as it is.

thats why i was kinda thinking that devaluation was the only way out. but if thats the case, how does that affect bond holders and why do govts keep releasing bull5hit inflation figures?
this is gonna sound kinda stupid, but is inflation, in this scenario, such a bad thing?

the world goes in cycles, especially economics - boom and bust, etc. we havent had inflation for over 30 years - isnt it due a return?
Report Menelaus November 1, 2011 9:05 AM GMT
What's he talking about again WDIDN, the power of positive thinking? Just pretend that this is not happening, have a positive outlook and we'll muddle through it? Somehow miraculously we'll get back to "normal", those last 20 years of binge borrowing and spending, those "happy days" that would never come to an end? Is that what he is spewing again?

When it comes to that chap, at first I was convinced it was a healthy dose of naivete, then I thought it might have been a case of having not thought through everything completely, then finally I realized his "knowledge" was all superficial and fake. Everything was simply just way over his head. Then I decided not to waste my time and cut him of.

Soon enough he'll get to find out if the axiom "ignorance is bliss" is true.
Report PierreLaRogue November 1, 2011 12:28 PM GMT
Boom Boom, AUD 1.03 and going down, ladyboys all round. Love
Report FINE AS FROG HAIR November 1, 2011 6:07 PM GMT
I'd say that the most important axiom in finance is the the famous saying of FDR " the only thing you have to fear is fear itself ".
This is not to pretend that nothing is happening, as Menelaus somewhat facetiously summarizes the " positive  outlook " viewpoint, but rather that the positives will overcome the negatives over time.
Imo there will not be serious hyperinflation on a garnd world scale, but there will be an extended period of low wealth creation for most of us.
As it is we all consume, or think we must consume, far too many unnecessary and needless items, and a healthy rationing of our current lifestyles will do us all more good than harm in the long run.
I've certainly had an extensive rethink of my own life's priorities as a result of the current crises, and it has been quite a welcome opportunity to change my somewhat spendthrift ways of past.
But I think the basic nature of human endeavour and creativity will see us through in the end, as it always has done in the past.
The politicians and policy makers in the world today are no worse than in the past and, more importantly, the globalization of most important matters today should result in the necessary and required cooperation of all major players to resolve matters peacefully if not painlessly.
Report Mrben November 2, 2011 12:54 AM GMT

markets collapsing over night and will continue downward.

all this bought to you -in advance by the undisputed KING OF THE FINANCIAL FORUM

absolutly massive results here, as you can imagine.

those who understand how markets work are drinking champers with multiple girlfriends  whilst frolicking in the pool this morning.

ahhhhhhhhhhh- If I was not committed to this resort project till christmas I would be off the vegas!!!Love

melly-Cry god your a dikhead.
Report FINE AS FROG HAIR November 2, 2011 2:09 AM GMT
Maybe Mr Ben has developed what could best be called the KISS method of trading.
If so, then that will surely absolutely be beyond the comprehension of Menelaus.
I just hope Mr B knows how to get out of these trades as well as he seems to get into them.
It would be just too beautiful for words if Mr Ben ends up being one of the most succesful trading forumites, given his apparent lack of financial sophistication.
Menelaus on the other hand perhaps knows too much economic theory for his own good. Remember the LTCM guys were supposed to be the smartest ever, and we all know what happened to them.
Report Mrben November 2, 2011 3:36 AM GMT
that should be nominated for the most accurate post of the year froggy.Love
Report Mrben November 15, 2011 10:47 AM GMT
the predictive accuracy of this thread is amazing.Love
Report Menelaus November 15, 2011 12:02 PM GMT
************** posting while holding nose *******************

1. If someone predicts the world will end because of a plaque and by coincidence the world ends because it gets hit by a meteorite, is the prediction accurate? Reapeat after me.....someone being massively stupid doesn't prevent them from being massively lucky.

2. Getting the timing wrong makes it a bad trade. Do overs only work in the movies.

3. Reflation on the way.......HIDE.
Report FINE AS FROG HAIR November 15, 2011 11:44 PM GMT
Win ugly or beautifully, it doesn't matter, just win.
And that is what Mr Ben seems to be currently doing, much to Menelaus' great distress.
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