Tradefair & Financials
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Hey guys,
I am an amateur investor who tends to trust his gut on most things. I don't have any sort of in-depth knowledge and I was wondering whether anyone would be able to advice me, or at least give me their opinion on some 'gut feels' that I currently have.
I feel that with the uncertainty and 'digging the hole deeper' surrounding the US economy, that the USD could be a long-term short with alot of potential. Extreme long-term (10yrs), I feel that the Yuan is a good buy against the USD (I'm thinking economic explosion in China, changing of superpower, China taking on US debt etc.). Basically, I'm thinking go against the USD, just trying to work out whether this is a good move and how best to do it.
Would it perhaps be better buying Gold/Silver? I'm slightly concerned by this as I know very little about it. My overall feel is that the US bubble is close to bursting and would like to take a view against this. At the same time, I think Asian powers will become more prominent, surely something that should be reflected in currency?
Thanks for any advice that you guys may be able to offer me.
I am an amateur investor who tends to trust his gut on most things. I don't have any sort of in-depth knowledge and I was wondering whether anyone would be able to advice me, or at least give me their opinion on some 'gut feels' that I currently have.
I feel that with the uncertainty and 'digging the hole deeper' surrounding the US economy, that the USD could be a long-term short with alot of potential. Extreme long-term (10yrs), I feel that the Yuan is a good buy against the USD (I'm thinking economic explosion in China, changing of superpower, China taking on US debt etc.). Basically, I'm thinking go against the USD, just trying to work out whether this is a good move and how best to do it.
Would it perhaps be better buying Gold/Silver? I'm slightly concerned by this as I know very little about it. My overall feel is that the US bubble is close to bursting and would like to take a view against this. At the same time, I think Asian powers will become more prominent, surely something that should be reflected in currency?
Thanks for any advice that you guys may be able to offer me.
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You need to decide for yourself. Here's a few questions however you can research the answer to so it can help you decide:
1. Who "printed" more money the last three years, the FED or the POBC?
2. In the event of another crisis a la Bear Stearns or Lehman resulting in a liquidity crunch in the financial system (ie. LIBOR goes ballistic), what will be more in demand the USD or the yuan.....or any other currency for that matter?
3. Will the current global monetary system based on fiat money backed by nothing but promises exist in 10 years? If not, why not and what are some possible alternative systems? How do we transition to a new system?
4. Is betting on gold not betting against fiat currencies, or more specifically betting against the USD?
and the most important question because any discussion about currencies or the global economy at large in the future would be moot without considering it
5. What's the price of OIL going to be in 10 years? And what does that do for growth in global economies?
You're on the right track but don't miss the forest because of the trees. The game has changed as of September 2008 (actually summer of 2007 if you were paying attention) and old paradigms don't work. Good luck.
1. Who "printed" more money the last three years, the FED or the POBC?
2. In the event of another crisis a la Bear Stearns or Lehman resulting in a liquidity crunch in the financial system (ie. LIBOR goes ballistic), what will be more in demand the USD or the yuan.....or any other currency for that matter?
3. Will the current global monetary system based on fiat money backed by nothing but promises exist in 10 years? If not, why not and what are some possible alternative systems? How do we transition to a new system?
4. Is betting on gold not betting against fiat currencies, or more specifically betting against the USD?
and the most important question because any discussion about currencies or the global economy at large in the future would be moot without considering it
5. What's the price of OIL going to be in 10 years? And what does that do for growth in global economies?
You're on the right track but don't miss the forest because of the trees. The game has changed as of September 2008 (actually summer of 2007 if you were paying attention) and old paradigms don't work. Good luck.
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