Tradefair & Financials
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Investing in gold or silver ?
Investing in gold or silver ?
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It's not a question of whether M is always wrong, it's more about that he seems to claim he is never wrong.
Quite a difference really. I'd pick JW to trade me out of a hole any day, but I would probably pick M to stop me getting into the hole in the first place. |
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JW
Will you answer my ETF question re holding gold/silver ?. |
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JW, that's the problem with debating anything with you. You'll post a bunch of garbage that's 90pc wrong but then you'll erect formidable defences and a bunch of never ending strawman arguments to accentuate the 10pc part you got right......and then pretend the entire post was sound all long.
Where exactly did you see me take exception that it costs more? But not in the childish way you mean it. Your analysis is naive and totally betrays the fact that you've never own gold in any form in your life. You haven't a clue how gold gets traded or taken into possession, what the true costs are in either option, and what drives investors into the different investment choices, beyond what you may have read in some published article somewhere. Because if you did then you wouldn't post something so totally idiotic like "the probability of hyperinflation must be greater then 10pc just to cover the upfront costs" and try to pass it off as wisdom or a mathematical genius performing risk analysis (feel free to take your pick). So much for "expected value" and the "probability of hyperinflation"......but I must admit it does sound impressive to the lemmings. I did take strong exception to the "skills are more important", "fake gold is a problem", "it's not safe to keep it at home" rubbish you posted and proceeded to post information as to precisely why what you posted was rubbish. As usual you glossed over that part of the discussion by a bunch of "it's a matter of opinion", "we have different points of view", etc. Those who at one time thought the earth was flat had a different opinion and a different point of view too but that does not mean they were not dead WRONG. You display incredible audacity for someone that I've taken to school every time we engaged in a debate on here calling me uneducated, I don't understand maths, naive thinker and a myriad of other insults. I still don't fully understand what you do for a living but if you are charging clients fees for financial advice or to manage their money, their fully entitled to a refund. Your views are so mainstream, it's laughable. At the end, I only have one question for you. How does it feel to have missed gold's greatest bull run ? I hope somewhere in Carol Vorderman's book you find the answer. |
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Oh it's just the posts meant for me that are going to be concise and easily comprehensible.
Not all of your posts. What a disappointment, for me at least, if not for all of us. |
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Btw is that latest run up in gold prices now supposed to be better than the 77-80 run up ?
Umm. |
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There was a run up in 77-80??? I haven't heard.....ummm. I need to look into that...
It might serve you well, since you are debating which type of ETF to buy, to look up a historical gold price chart one of these days. It may also help you to consider the underlying fundamentals for the recent bull run. Do you see any of those drivers vanishing any time soon? Sorry to disappoint you but you'll get over it. I hope my post was not too many words for you. |
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Too few words in fact as the meaning of it seems to escape me entirely.
Ah well back to the drudgery of just relying on my advisers. I find it's always a mistake to try to get too close to these things. Always ends in embarassment to all concerned. Btw were you out of kindergarten in the late 70's ? |
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On reflection I'm probably doing you an injustice M.
You were probably reading and critiqueing Keynes before you even left kindergarten. A wunderkind no less perhaps ? Incidentally have you thought that perhaps Mayfair might not be quite the best place to live and have a relatively large property investment in, come any " blood in the streets, sack the bankers " type world financial collapse ?. |
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Enough of these childish late night ramblings of a bored soul.
I'll let you and Johnnie get back to the meaningful financial debate on this thread. As I have said before, very entertaining to watch from the sidelines. |
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"very entertaining to watch from the sidelines"
This is the most honest line you ever posted on here. I doubt you have enough money to consider investing in bubble gum never mind gold ETFs. Anyone considering gold in any form as an investment would know and understand it's fundamentals and investment options without having to resort to posting on a gambling website's forum to find out (some much for having "advisers"). You would also know that smugly suggesting the "spike" in the price of gold in early 1980 was the greatest bull run is a red herring. It lasted virtually a few days and we were back trading at over 40pc lower than the peak a mere eight weeks later. Most of what you post on here is not intended to add any value in any discussion, I'm not sure you know enough to be able to do that. It is only intended to provoke others into debate for, by your own admission, entertainment. In other words, just to keep things simple so you can understand, you sir are nothing more than a common.......TROLL. P.S. : For the record, I work in Mayfair but I live in Knightsbridge, at least get your facts straight. |
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You're absolutely right.
I suppose in defining a bull run I was theoretically talking about a spike in price relative to the time period involved and for someone getting in and out at the perfect entry and exit points, which of course nobody ever does ( oh wait a minute you do, quite often in fact it would appear). But no matter. You're in essence right about this forum not being the place for me, but maybe not only me, but perhaps no one else at all who dares to have the temerity to prick your little bubble of arrogance and superiority, either seriously or in jest. I am more disappointed in your lack of humour perhaps than you're myopic, impractical intellectuallism. You have given me great cocktail party fodder over the time I've been on here ( eg the GE bankruptcy call is enshrined in legend at a few of my favourite beach bar watering holes) and so it wasn't all a waste of time. Sorry to hear you haven't yet made it into Mayfair, but Knightsbridge can be quite nice though ( if you're in the right street of course,). |
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The saddest thing about this forum is that it gives a chance to a clueless lemming like you to shout overt and thinly veiled insults at every opportunity to a poster like myself. The nice thing about a forum like this is that it gives a knowledgeable poster like myself the chance to put you in your place each and every day. Get a life, or better yet, GET A CLUE.
Here, take this at your next cocktail party: http://www.propublica.org/article/general-electric-tapped-fed-to-borrow-16-billion |
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Menelaus
You seem like a pretty clued up fella but feel free to take a tip, or otherwise, from a master of word play in that if you are going to talk down to people at least do so with a little humour. That way an outsider is less likely to conclude that two buffoons are rolling around in the mud. |
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Not personally suggesting that I have witnessed any buffoonery of course.
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The basic truth is that Menelaus would be sorely missed by this forum, whether for the right or wrong reasons,but I will never be for any reason.
I will just have to get on with it I suppose, whatever it is supposed to be. |
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Menelaus has also driven home a very basic truth to me.
I don't really appreciate how lucky I am in life in comparison to him. |
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I wouldn't argue with that, you are incredibly lucky. Hell, what am I talking about, even the scriptures agree with you.
Matthew Chapter 5 Verse 3 |
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I'm afraid I'm more in the school of thought that if there isn't a God, nobody will notice the difference.
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And if you think I'm going to google Matthew Chapter 5 Verse 3 you are very much mistaken.
That would be intolerable. |
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lets make an example.
i want to preserve 1mion worth of purchasing power. i buy paper gold as i think gold is guaranteeing the best hedge agst qe, inflation, debasement whatever you want to call it. i spend 1mion today and in 90% of the cases i get 1mion of purcasing power -expressed in gold- back, while in 10% of the cases - hyperinflation - i would get zero lets assume ( actually you wd get a bunch of dollars back, so probably a bit more than zero ) i could buy also physical gold, but at 10% premium over paper, i would get only 900k worth of purchasing power insured as the rest is the cost of higher fees. hyperinflation or not, you would still get 900k of purchasing power ( in fact in the 90pct of the cases, ie no hyperinflation, you would necessarily have to pay a bid offer to get out of your investment ) in terms of esperance matematique, you need to associate a higher than 10% probability of collapse to prefer physical to paper. now, coming back to the gold run. the fact i only own gold in form of watches, doesnt mean i didnt partecipate to the rally. i know you pretend to ignore it, but i trade ccies for a proprietary desk. i trade gold - anc chf - on a daily basis, i have some positions i m running since few yrs, some position i took profit on, some others i wd keep for ever ( i m running some positions since they were expressed in DEM for yor guide; and you can keep em for so long only if they re in the money.. ). Pa i trade the same way ( although, earnign by contract a fix pctge of my profits as compensation i tend to use the most efficient and leveraged way to make money, ie the bank liquidity and balancesheet ). sometimes i buy gold, some other i sell it. end of. i seem to recall anyway, that in a previous thread you mentioned you didnt have gold in your portfolio. i refresh your memory: we were talking about the average duration of an fx trade, you were arguing it was a mere few seconds, i was arguing that you were confused with algo trading. i asked you why otherwise you had held gold positions since yrs anyway ( given gold is a ccy ), and you replied saying that i must have had the wrong impression if i thought you were invested in gold all this time. unless of course you had been short on the way down and then succeeded to buy the dip. lol. |
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I'm still not sure , even after reading your example, why paper gold( if it is in the form of an investment certificate in an etf buying only physical gold) is different from buying actual physical gold ( in the form of a certificate certifying it is held in a vault allocated specifically to me) ?
Is it that perhaps the former is a share a pool of gold, whilst the latter is a specific allocated measure of gold ? |
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Also JW what is your view on the historical trading argument that if and when any particular traded item starts to become really noticeable / popular with the general masses, as here in that the price of gold starts to be reported on a headline daily basis by all news channels, then that is perhaps the time that the rally is approaching maturity and/ or the end.
That is effectively the amateurs now start to come in en masse to take out the pros giving them realised profits to reinvest elsewhere, and giving the amateurs at best underperforming assets in the future ? Or is that not happening here in any form or manner ? That is M's point that all the rally drivers are still in place and getting stronger is unchallengeably correct ? |
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Sell when the shoe shine boy tells you to buy. The question is how many people do you know who are buying gold?
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early morning riser is buying silver EO, so the time could be close.
if benny and lampus get involved then definitely sell. |
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Benny and Lampus will be buying on the way down. I'm sweating about EMR buying though.
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I'd love to continue the debate but I won't invest the time in reading and deciphering a collection of random thoughts put together in a string of running sentences in one never ending paragraph. Is it too hard and time consuming to capitalize the first letter after a period?
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