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FINE AS FROG HAIR
19 Jul 11 01:40
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Date Joined: 12 Mar 07
| Topic/replies: 5,527 | Blogger: FINE AS FROG HAIR's blog
A mug investor coming in today.
Exchange-traded funds or some other way would be better or more suitable ?

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Replies: 65
By:
J2BLUE.
When: 19 Jul 11 11:32
If you can't touch it, you don't own it.

Get physical if you're planning to hold for a decent amount of time. Avoid ETFs.
By:
FINE AS FROG HAIR
When: 19 Jul 11 22:01
THe Olivia Newton-John approach you could say ?
By:
Cade
When: 20 Jul 11 20:23
http://funds.ft.com/UnlistedFundFactsheet.aspx?mid=CPGGA
By:
bigH
When: 24 Jul 11 11:03
J2blue is correct - you have to hold physical gold

buy gold sovereigns (us eagle, canadian maple leafs, south africa kruggerands) and a small safe. Job done

I used http://www.goldline.co.uk

Excellent service - recommended
By:
FINE AS FROG HAIR
When: 25 Jul 11 05:29
Exactly why do you have to hold physical gold inorder to ride irs price curve ?
By:
FINE AS FROG HAIR
When: 25 Jul 11 05:38
"----ride its price curve "
By:
Menelaus
When: 25 Jul 11 09:24
FAFH, you need to be clear in your own mind as to what your primary motivation is in investing in gold in the first place. Then the answers you are seeking become all too obvious.
By:
Menelaus
When: 25 Jul 11 09:25
* is *
By:
FINE AS FROG HAIR
When: 25 Jul 11 09:53
Lost me M, I'm afraid.
Just remember, most of us on here are just mere mortals struggling to make a crust from the scraps thrown to us from the privileged elite.
By:
Eeternaloptimist
When: 25 Jul 11 20:44
Fine

Think about why you are investing in gold and why people tend to? At todays levels people are either riding the wave or looking for a safe haven. If you are riding the wave then it is at very high levels to start from and you pays your money and takes your chance. If you are looking for a safe haven then the only logical reason to get into it is to hold it.
By:
FINE AS FROG HAIR
When: 25 Jul 11 22:43
Buy why necessarily hold physical gold as opposed to ETFs ?
The emphasis is on " hold". Does it matter how you hold it ?
By:
Menelaus
When: 25 Jul 11 23:16
Yes
By:
johnnie walker
When: 26 Jul 11 00:24
fafh, what here some guys are implying is that the only reason to hold gold is to have an asset to protect you when all goes pear shaped. if you held gold in paper form, it s not obvious you wd get the delivery of your asset...
anyway, gold in physical form has its own disadvantages too.
first, it costs more.
second, it could be fake and you need an audit when you buy it these days ( likewise you wd be required to provide one when you sell in case of the collapse of the system ).
third, although a safer option in terms of investment, it doesnt strike me as the safest option in terms of personal safety. you all guys plan to have a safe, few bars of gold in it, and then sleep happy? if the system fell apart, would you risk to have something so valuable at home? locked?
fourth, although of course gold would keep a purchasing power, it would suffer a loss of value too, as it would lack the flexibility of use that paper money gives ( imagine a world with only 1000 dollar notes, next thing you know shopping at tesco would cost 1000 dollars ).

the only things to preserve your purchasing power in case of a collapse are your skills, your work ethics, your adaptability ( basically making sure the society needs you ). thats the only wealth you need to protect ( and increase ).
By:
FINE AS FROG HAIR
When: 26 Jul 11 00:58
JW
What if you're well past the active working age ?
By:
Menelaus
When: 26 Jul 11 01:08
@ JW

b0ll0cks

@ FAFH

simple, if you are speculating buy paper gold, if you are hedging against a financial system collapse, buy physical.
By:
FINE AS FROG HAIR
When: 26 Jul 11 01:17
OK then, I think I'll tell my " friend " to buy some of those nice little medallions, which will look so nice bouncing against his hairy chest whilst jogging along the beach.
Pull the chicks and protect against financial armageddon, all at the same time.
Sounds good.
Tks for all the excellent advice for my " friend ".
By:
Menelaus
When: 26 Jul 11 01:40
Don't be too hasty. If your "skill" is the world's oldest profession, then JW may be right, you don't need gold, just your skills if everything goes pear shaped.
By:
FINE AS FROG HAIR
When: 26 Jul 11 02:06
And as long as you don't also go pear shaped presumably.
By:
johnnie walker
When: 27 Jul 11 23:42
is it too much to ask which part you thought it was bllks and you didnt agree with>

is physical gold more expensive or not? ( clue: probably you can check even on the meerket website )
would you buy it if it wasnt certified? ( clue: check how much fake gold is around these days )
is it safe to keep it at home, especially as someone predicts at same time fights in the streets ( clue: ask the met police )
is it true that having all the 'money' expressed in very expensive cuts, would reduce the purchasing power of it? ( clue: check how much tesco pays for gold these days, and we re in normal times )
is it true that during hyperinflationary periods we have massive redistribution of wealth ( sometimes with violent modes too, clue: ask the zimbabwean landowners )? ask yourself who is sure to eat, a doctor or an insurance broker, a farmer or an m&a director? so is it so wrong to assume that making sure society needs you is your only sure way to mantain your purchasing power?

happy to have your comments, if they go beyond the single word. else, please avoid polluting the forum.
By:
Menelaus
When: 28 Jul 11 00:42
You still don't get it, do you?

I'm not a doctor, very few of us are. I'm a paper pusher, just like you. I'm not interested in "surviving" like a doctor would by offering his services, I'm interested in maintaining my wealth when the current medium of exchange collapses. And gold has proven itself the most effective wealth preservation/transfer mechanism in EVERY fiat money collapse in the 20th century. Get it now?

Your statements about fake gold, security and violence are so far of base, I won't even dignify them be debating them.

And the word you are looking for is "assayed", not "certified". You'd probably know that if you owned a single ounce of physical.

Stop posting rubbish, and I'll stop saying "bllks"





Suggested reading for you:

"When Money Dies" Adam Ferguson
"The German Inflation" Fritz Ringer
"The economics of Inflation" Constantino Bresciani-Turroni
"The Monetary Dynamics of Hyperinflation" Phillip Cagan
"Inflation Stabilization" Kurt Weyland
"The case of Argentina" Jutta Maute
"The Hyperinflation Survival Guide" Gerald Swanson
"Profiting in Economic Storms" Daniel S. Shaffer
"The Collapse of the Soviet Union" David Marples
"The Last Resort: A memoir of Zimbabwe" Douglas Rogers
By:
johnnie walker
When: 28 Jul 11 19:56
Thanks for the advice. Some of them books I already got them.
You didn't anyway succeed to explain anything, you re so obsessed by the idea of having to win an argument that you don't even care to understand other peoples positions.
I never mentioned gold is not a way to keep your purchasing power. As a matter of fact I was the only one giving fafh a reply to his question. I added a couple of comments which wanted to highlight what's the cost of buyin that extra insurance in case of a collapse. As things don't come for free and arbitrages dont exist but for very short time  You (used as generic term) make your own calculations: is it a 10pct premium (and I'm sorry to insist: a security headache; you would be a criminal if you neglected these things having a family) worthwhile ? You decide: if hyperinflation is a likely scenario (more than 10pct) you take delivery. But if you think theres only a remote possibility of that happening but you still want to protect yourself angst inflation and rounds of Qe then paper gold is enough.
Some people here think that the next wave of the crises will bring riots and violence on the streets. Read above and all the other gold threads. if that's the case (not my view, I don't believe in hyperinflation to start with) I guarantee you you can survive with your stored wealth only for a limited period. I dont want to sound uber socialist, but it s always the chimera of the wealthy classes to believe they can weather any revolution. If the system collapses, it collapses in all of it's forms. Hence my comment about having to keep yourself adaptable and useful to society. If you want to know, the coS
Cell 1 Cell 2
Cell 3 Cell 4
mment was more directed to the guys here who are still at college, think the system is rotten to the core and forecast its collapse,but protect their future by buying gold In
By:
johnnie walker
When: 28 Jul 11 20:08
(physical gold, mind you) instead of thinking to do something else with heir careers which shud be more rewarding in case of a collapse. Dont take all the comments as if they were meant to you only.
Ps you might be right about something tho, writing from the iPhone is proving a v difficult exercise :-)
By:
Whippet
When: 28 Jul 11 20:10
What's the thoughts on having physical gold but stored in a bank vault? Is this safe? Or is physical in your own home the only way to go?
By:
FINE AS FROG HAIR
When: 28 Jul 11 20:47
The HK Chinese filled their teeth with gold, and wore/carried at all times inordinate amounts of expensive jewellry, just in case they had to do a quick runner from the hordes of commies lurking on their border.
Of course that could just be some racist thing I read in a gweilo book of fiction.
By:
Menelaus
When: 28 Jul 11 21:05
JW, your are incorrigible. It seems that you are incapable of muttering "oh, I get it now" under your breath  and just walk away. Which inevitably means a lot of unnecessary work for me to keep explaining. Also you have a real talent for "evolving" the debate to only the points are too obvious to even dispute as a way out.

If you are buying from a credible dealer, there's ZERO chance, I repeat, ZERO chance of buying fake gold. The tungsten story was overblown and restricted only to bullion for obvious technical and economic reasons (the smallest counterfeit piece found was 16 troy ounces). One ounce coins would be very difficult to produce with tungsten cores and very easy to detect because of the "dull" sound produced when struck as compared to a high "ting" note on hard dense metals like tungsten. Plus economically it makes sense to "counterfeit" the larger bullion sizes if that were the case. There was considerable speculation that the tungsten core gold bars were planted to be "discovered" to suppress demand at the time (kill trust - evidently it worked in your case). Whatever affect it had on the gold market, it was very short lived. Any credible dealer will provide you with the assay results of your purchased bullion which include ultrasonic and accelerometer "hammer" (resonant frequency) measurements specifically used for tungsten detection (the speed of sound in tungsten is twice that of gold). The gold market, if the trend in the price of gold is any indication, seems to have shrugged off any concerns about fake gold. I would advise you to do the same.

Zimbabwe has had systemic violence for a long time now, even before their currency collapse, which continues right up to today. IT HAS NOTHING TO DO with their experience with hyperinflation and currency collapse. Surprisingly enough, the "violence" that has been for example historically recorded in places where the currency collapsed through excessive fiat money printing like Germany (1923), Chile (1973), Argentina (1980), Yugoslavia (1989), Russia (1998) has been mostly aimed at achieving political change. Hyperinflation was inevitably  followed by government collapse and regime change, it was NOT violence or crime directed at robbing fellow citizens of their stash of gold (those who had any). Yes, you're quite correct, I said they'll be fights in the streets (people have a tendency to get upset at their government when they wake up one morning and discover that those savings they thought they had in the bank are no longer there and those pensions they thought they had coming are being paid to them with coloured toilet paper), not in your living room stealing your family silverware. Read some of the books I suggested.

It seems to me like your "everything goes pear shaped" collapse scenario is an apocalyptic, thermonuclear war heads raining on out heads, an irradiated environment without food sources and people resorting to cannibalism to survive scenario ("The Road"). I don't know why anyone would want to even survive such a scenario, but yes, in this case, "skills" may be more valuable. Being a hand weapons expert and owing some would be far better than owning gold in those circumstances. That's not my view of the world. Life will go on, it always does, it's just that the next medium of exchange when we rebuild, following a period of mostly trading by barter, won't be fiat money based on "faith and credit" . And in this scenario, gold will perform it's function as it has for 6,000 years now in our history. Preserve wealth.

I think I'm just going to stick to just saying "b0ll0cks" from now on, a lot less work.
By:
Menelaus
When: 28 Jul 11 21:26
Whippet, if buying physical gold is used as a hedge against "everything going pear shaped" (I prefer financial system collapse), then it it very unlikely you'd be able to go into your banks vault to retrieve your gold. Some will even argue that there's also the possibility that your gold may be confiscated by the government similar to the experience in the US in 1933. I must admit I don't subscribe to the confiscation thesis but I do believe governments will find a way to heavily tax gold possession/transactions as they rebuild towards a different monetary system.

I'll say it again. If you are speculating, buy paper gold. If you are using gold as insurance against the worse case scenario, buy physical and keep it in your possession. History suggests that the notion that you are putting your family at peril by owning and storing gold is flawed. More people die in the streets of London every year from various criminal activities than people have been killed (in any society experiencing a monetary collapse in the 20th century) to have their gold stolen.
By:
FINE AS FROG HAIR
When: 28 Jul 11 21:52
I'm seriously now investigating the feasibility of replacing the structural joists in my main house with gold ones. I'm assuimg of course that the current ones aren't gold ( the previous owner was rather richer than me), but I haven't actually had them assayed yet.
By:
FINE AS FROG HAIR
When: 28 Jul 11 21:54
What a load of old alarmist cobblers this whole debate is.
By:
FINE AS FROG HAIR
When: 28 Jul 11 22:11
I can't imagine that M is the most popular man in the office, given his dogmatic views on not only the inevitable but also the imminent cllapse of the world's financial system.
I can picture people rushing into their offices and closing their doors, as they see him coming down the corridor eyes glazed, steam coming out of his ears, arms waving in all directions, saying the end is nigh.
By:
Menelaus
When: 28 Jul 11 22:36
FAFH, I will try and keep the posts shorter and the language easier just for you in the future. I'm starting to believe that you are having trouble following. I did not say collapse is imminent nor that it is inevitable, although I must admit the solutions to this financial imbroglio escape me at the moment. I have no idea where you got that impression. But if it where to happen, I'm prepared for it. I knew the right answer to the question "paper or physical" long before you decided to start a thread on here. I also knew that I'd rather go through the transition owning gold (and lot's of it) rather than relying on my "skills" to ensure my family's sustenance in the future. It's just me..... Grin
By:
Whippet
When: 28 Jul 11 23:07
Mene, what are your views on the silver market? Obviously not the direction it is going, but whether it is manipulated, or whether the rumours that the comex don't have enough stock to meet delivery is actually true?

Is a scenario where the paper market crashes but the physical market is still high (because of lack of supply) actually possible? I guess it could be physical silver all the way if you believe any of the conspiracy stories out there.
By:
FINE AS FROG HAIR
When: 28 Jul 11 23:07
My question on the paper and the physical aspect was more intended to be that if you invest in an ETF which only buys physical gold and does nothing else, then what is the difference between owning a certificate in that or owning a certificate that you have a bar of gold stashed in some dealer's vault.
I'm still not clear what the difference is tbh .
By:
FINE AS FROG HAIR
When: 28 Jul 11 23:09
Btw M I really do appreciate your declared intent to keep your posts shorter and language easier in the future.
I'm gonna hold you to that one.
By:
Menelaus
When: 28 Jul 11 23:47
@ FAFH

I could answer your question and clear your confusion but I can't do it in ten words or less so you're on your own.


@ Whippet

Your post is full of good and loaded questions. I would have to have more time to articulate my views on the silver market and PMs price manipulation but unfortunately I just don't have the time this evening. I will try to do it some other time. In brief though, yes, I do believe the PMs markets are manipulated (like just about everything else now days) and that we are starting to see a real disconnect between the paper price and what's available in COMEX inventories. And there's nothing conspiratorial about it, unless investors think that an entire years silver production/supply just miraculously shows up in silver futures short positions on the market in the span of five minutes is normal. If you are genuinely interested in the PMs markets, I can recommend some good web-sites and blogs for you to follow. You can start with these:

http://harveyorgan.blogspot.com/

http://traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/

http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/
By:
FINE AS FROG HAIR
When: 29 Jul 11 00:02
Any chance I can eat humble pie then M ?
By:
johnnie walker
When: 29 Jul 11 00:23
sorry to intervene again. you really have a bad way of pushing your arguments.
you decided to comment on the fake/non fake, which inceidentally didnt appear in my last post; and about the violence (ok, you have different opinions, i stay with mine: i wouldnt keep my wealth in a safe at home )
but you then avoided to comment on the points where you have no legs:
one, does it cost more to buy physical or not? what s the bid offer you need to cross to get in and out? as i said you need to associate a probability of hyperinflation bigger than 10pct only to cover this upfront cost. i understand maths is not your forte, but i dont have time to try to explain to you what s the meaning of expected value. i suggest you read 'maths made easy' by carol vorderman ( 1st volume ).
the 2nd main point is about what each of us consider the best way to preserve purchasing power.
of course we dont agree on this, we have completely different points of view about the world!
im of the opinion people should try to create wealth, not preserve it; im for the analyst who look at future earnings to value a company, and not just the cash in the accounts; im for attack not defense.
im very happy to disagree on this, i accept your point of view, but i dont accept that you might want to push your ideas as the only way. you just show that you re a clearly uneducated naive thinker!
By:
MONEY TREE
When: 29 Jul 11 00:29
Been away for a while and im not here to argue but still the forum is against mel, a few of you here talk sense from different views.

dont understand how mel is so wrong in your views.

one mans meat is another mans poison.

in short dont waste energy arguing if mel is so wrong oppose his views and profit / lose from it.
By:
MONEY TREE
When: 29 Jul 11 00:31
And all the bullion I have ever bought has been held in my hands.

thats the way i will do it, and made a good few quid from it.
By:
MONEY TREE
When: 29 Jul 11 00:31
And all the bullion I have ever bought has been held in my hands.

thats the way i will do it, and made a good few quid from it.
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