That epic Melly trade in full

Now, perhaps instead of avoiding the issue, you can answer this?

Why AAPL?

All the reasons you suggest for shorting AAPL are actually good. The problem is this:

These issues will affect a large number of other companies as well.

This makes AAPL a relatively unattractive shorting prospect; I'd much rather go balls deep into one of its rivals instead.

I am shocked you have actually missed this, because you seem to be the sort of guy that looks at the bigger picture. It seems though that you have made the sort of mistakes that a rookie bottom up investor would do.

Whippet, at this point I'm forced to ask the question; did your parents abuse you as a child? There's has to be some logical explanation for your behavior.

You can yell, scream, jump up and down, throw fits, temper tantrums and overall continue to embarrass yourself over this but you can't run away from one fact. Shorting at $350 and closing at $332 is PROFITABLE regardless of the bogus numbers you are posting or not.

You'll realize that when you grow up some day.

Bogus numbers? You are calling the numbers, from google finance, bogus?

Are you completely off your rocker?

Why can't you just admit you have been well and truly beaten and move on. And for god's sake, answer the question.

Do you have first grade math? Because if you did you wouldn't have to rely Yahoo finance to give you the numbers.

Trust me, you need not remind me that you are an amateur.

Perhaps it might be best for us all if you just answer Whippet's basic question ?
We all know if you sell at x and buy at y, with y being smaller than x, that you have made a profit.
That is not what Whippet is questioning, and you very well know it.

Skirting the question again, I didn't expect any less.

Where exactly do you expect me to get stock quotes from, moron? Am I supposed to know the exact price of everything on any specific date off the top of my head?

Sure, I have assumed the values on google finance are right, but there is no rational reason to believe they aren't. Or does your "bloomberg terminal" say something different?


AAPL Apr14 - 332.42
AAPL Jun17 - 320.26

% change = -3.79%

NASDAQ Apr14 - 2760.22
NASDAQ Jun17 - 2616.48

% change = -5.2%

What. an. amazing. trade.

I will ask you again; Why AAPL?

You can ask until your brain explodes. I don't see anywhere on this forum the contract I signed to take on the responsibility of educating you. I responded to some of your queries in the past on here because I sensed some original thinking in your posts, something I encounter very rarely on this forum. I was wrong. Your immaturity totally dwarfs your ability to reason.

One of your weaker answers to date Menelaus.
You definitely are getting tired of all this small time noise and chatter.
Can't say I really blame you.
But I do wish you would give them all just a few minor insignificant victories every now and again, just to show your human side.
You know the one your wife and daughters see and presumably hang on for dear life to every day.

This is his problem FAFH. He is so full of self importance that he can never make admit he is wrong, instead preferring to ignore any arguments completely. The funny thing is he then resorts to the same ad hominem attacks that he always accuses other people of. What is good for the goose is not good for the gander apparently.

My question really is rather simple and certainly hasn't justified this sort of response.

Why would you short AAPL instead of any multitude of companies out there? Your reasons for shorting AAPL are good, which I keep saying, but the problem is they will affect a number of companies as well. I said this at the time, and am saying it now. Although we can't say that AAPL dipping less than the NASDAQ proves this point, as this is only over a period of a couple of months, it should at least tell you that AAPL is thought to be in healthy shape compared to it's competitors, which it is.

This trade seems like the sort of rookie mistake a bottom-up trader would make, which is rather surprising as you clearly know you're stuff about the wider picture; why aren't you looking at it in this instance??

FASH, as an "agent provocateur" you have to do better than that. A lot better.....



Whippet, you still have failed to show me (Yahoo finance assisted and all) how shorting at $350 and closing at $332 is "wrong". What sort of financial bizzaro world do you live in? You and Benny are taking random walks through a mine field. Since it's your money you are trading, you can do as you wish. But opining on a financial forum is something you should avoid doing. Losing your money is one thing, embarrassing yourself publicly is another. You didn't thank me about setting you straight on the "ben said will do QE3" thing by the way. Bad manners.

Give up Whippet, he's not ever going to give you what you want in any form or manner.
Let the rest of us decide whether or not we all think you are the real victor in this little specific spat.
After all the answer is pretty obvious isn't it ?
That better M ?

Wow, shock horror, melly is at it again, doing the exact same thing he derides others for doing.

Melly, you first posted on the forum that you had shorted AAPL on April 14th. The price on that day was $336-$332. How can you then turn around and say you actually got $350, which is suspiciously near the exact top?

Finally, you posted on the forum that you closed the position on June 17th, when the price was $329-$320.

Even in the best case scenario, where you managed to get $336 and $320, you would still not have made as much as you are claiming.

You are nothing more than a complete fraud and hypocrite.

As a relative newcomer I have visited this forum in the hope of experienced advice and intelligent debate.

Extremely disheartening to note juvenile abuse jostling for predominance amongst genuine financial comment.  Enquiring as to whether somebody had been a victim of child abuse is inexcusable.

Whippet throwing another temper tantrum, what a surprise.

You know M, a man is perhaps better judged on how he loses than on how he wins.
You've shown us your true colours here.

FAFH, if you are referring to me continuing not to answer his question "why apple", the answer was put up long ago, he should spend the time to go find it rather than wasting my time. How's that for an Oriflamme?

But the answer wasn't ever put up melly. You seem to have missed the point I am trying to make.

You did make a very nice post about profits, margins, and people not being able to afford the ipad, but you never once explained why all these issues were only going to affect apple (for ipad replace with blackberry, tablet, laptop, pc, whatever you like).

Your main argument seemed to be that if gas was over $4, people wouldn't be able to afford an ipad. Surely they wouldn't be able to afford any consumer electronics at all in that scenario?

Anyway, it seems like I am just debating semantics on the above, because your trade wasn't based on any of those reasons, was it? It seems like all you were looking for was a quick scalp of 5%, or however much it was you actually made.

You really have a lot of explaining to do:

A) Why you ignored all your decent analysis and just went for a quick 5% trade? (Your reasons for shorting were very well outlined for sure, shame you never stuck to them)

B) Why exactly will the issues outlined in A) affect AAPL more than any other company?


With respect to B), over the course of your trade, AAPL dipped a lot less than all it's competitors, although admittedly this period isn't long enough for any of the above factors to come into play. Why did that happen if AAPL is so bad? You aren't trying to preempt the fanboys (as you call them) dumping this stock or something are you? This is a rather curious way to trade in my opinion. Just stick to the fundamentals; apple's are better than many other companies in the sector, which is why there are far better shorting candidates out there, period.

I know dwarf throwing is largely banned.
Shouldn't whippet throwing be banned also ?.
You're like a dog with a bone on this one buddy.
Perfectly understandable though.
Score one for the underclass on here. Stick it to the elitists.
Way to go man.

Whippet you either too lazy to do this yourself, or incapable of understanding what's being posted here.

This was posted over month ago. What part of "why apple" don't you understand? And why do I have to always spoon feed you on this forum just because you throw a temper tantrum?


Menelaus     Joined: 03 Feb 05
Replies: 878 17 Jun 11 12:30 
.............

Why? Because just about every numb skull analyst out there, you know, the ones who "tend to be conservative" thought the party can go on forever and had the stock price going to the moon. Why? Because they saw the fanboys were lining up around the block to buy ipads not realizing the significant downdraft in the US economy that would impact those fanboys, not realizing that even gullible fanboys would eventually catch on that there are no new products just i2,i3,i4,iadinfinitum versions of essentially the same gadget, not realizing that competitors are catching up in places where Apple got the jump on them, not realizing the Android juggernaut is for real and getting bigger and better, not realizing that the markets still see Steve Jobs as Apple and unfortunately he has terminal cancer (now if Apple ever stop parading Steve at every one of their conferences, although he is clearly incapable of even standing up on his own two feet more than just a few minutes and looks about five stone underweight, then the market's perception might change - they know though, the day the launch a new product of yet another "new version" WITHOUT Steve on the podium, their stock will sink 5pc the SAME DAY), not realizing that Apple would be impacted by the same supply chain interruptions out of Japan as every other major electronic products mfgr..........................

.............

Ok, so it was something to do with the fan boys as I assumed.

What about my second question though?

Why have you completely ignored your very good analysis on AAPL and just gone for a quick 5% trade? All your above reasons are completely irrelevant if you are just going to do that. So why the sudden change of heart?

Whippet, if that's all you are getting from my post that "it had something to do with fanboys" then we clearly have a communication problem here.

Whippet, first of all I have to give you credit for responding in your last few posts with civility, it didn't go unnoticed. This is my last post in this matter. If it answers your question it does, if it doesn't, it doesn't. Subject closed as far as I'm concerned.

1. The stock represents MANIA buying rather than reason (if you don't believe me all you have to do is look at polybot's and unitedbiscuit's posts) - mania's don't end well.

2. The stock is OVERHYPED by analysts - the only way $450 plus targets get reached is through......ASSET INFLATION through money printing, not through the economy expanding (economic indicators are showing the global economy to be contracting). It may reach $450 plus but you need to think what the price of a loaf of bread will be at the same time. Think of what AAPL will be worth in REAL terms, not NOMINAL.

3. Diminishing returns through lack of innovation. Where are the new products out of Apple (icloud??? pleeeeease). Consumers (especially in difficult financial times) are not going to throw away an ipad and go buy the latest iversion because the new one now has a higher resolution camera. The "big new idea" makes a splash, "the little improvements" don't. Its marketing 101.

4. Android is a force to be reckoned with and expanding faster than the iphone. The numbers speak for themselves. Research it.

5. Others are starting to catch up in the itablet segment and are better priced. Have you read the reviews on the latest tablets (ACER, I'm not kidding)?

6. Steve Jobs is a dying man, and the market STILL sees Jobs as AAPL. Apple knows that which explains why although Steve looks very weak and sickly was still paraded on stage to launch icloud instead of staying home. Regretfully, soon we'll find out what pc of the AAPL price Steve represents.

7. I can give you another 10 reasons but since they are broad economy related they are generic for the market as a whole and not necessarily specific to Apple. Two things needs to be said however. One, margin compression will catch up to everyone but more so to those who had fat margins to begin with. And two, despite what the fanboys thinks, when people are confronted with a choice of eating, heating their home, putting petrol in the car, or buying ipad, it's the ipad that will go.

17 Jul 11 13:32 Joined: 14 Sep 04 | Topic/replies: 4,823 | Blogger: Pokermonster's blog
As a relative newcomer I have visited this forum in the hope of experienced advice and intelligent debate.

Extremely disheartening to note juvenile abuse jostling for predominance amongst genuine financial comment.  Enquiring as to whether somebody had been a victim of child abuse is inexcusable.



about the only sense written on the entire forum


choc full of child like spats

utterly embarrassing