Things that make you go hmmm..........

US ISM Manufacturing Employment Index just out

58.2 May

62.7 April

I wonder how long until Bernanke goes on air telling us "the FED stands ready to inject additional liquidity if need be". QE3 is a virtual certainty with a small break after QE2 in an effort to rein in commodities inflation. It won't work, the same way all previous iterations didn't work except inflate stock prices in equities markets that dislocated from the real economy. And the 10-yr UST at 3pc !?!? We're not in the Twilight Zone anymore, we're now ready to cross the outer fringes.

I neglected to mention, for those who don't follow the US economic indicators closely, the decline in the ISM Empl. Index was the sharpest one month decline since 1984.

But they haven't reined in inflation, QE3 would lead to $150 oil, Obama has no chance of re-election if that happens, prices need to collapse before Qe3 can begin, when oil is around $75 and wallstreet traders are running for the hills.

Eliminate the word "collapse" from your vocabulary when it comes to these markets. We'll never see another "collapse" in our lifetime in the absence of an unforeseen major catastrophic event (Fukushima goes up in a mushroom cloud or a dirty bomb terrorist attack on London or NY) and even then I have my doubts. Bernanke is in firm control of ALL markets and he has the tool (printing press) to keep it that way. Equities rebounding back trimming almost all their losses from the March 2009 lows despite dire economic growth and persistent high unemployment, interest rate firmly at zero despite all the credit risk with default and Oil and PMs kept in check with occasional raids that send the weaker (and leveraged) hands running for cover.

The global economy is double dipping (if we ever exited the first dip) and Bernanke will let it take it's course for a while. That alone will put downward pressure on Oil, let alone raising margin requirements similar to what they did in the silver smack-down. Bernanke told us "inflation is transitory", what do you think he means by that? QE3 after a brief break from QE2 to calm down the inflation head winds. One you go down this road, there's no other choice. These guys went "all-in" in September of 2008 when Lehman collapsed. Changing direction now when they made the financial system even more unstable is a non-starter. Plan accordingly.....

Well if oil doesn't get down to $75 then they cant do QE3 imo, simple as that, and people saying a 2nd collapse cant happen? everyone is saying this, by collapse i mean a 30-50% correction.

Oil will decline from current levels due to demand destruction and QE pause but it won't drop to $75. The reason......geology. The days of digging 100 feet down the sand and finding sweet crude are long gone.

A 30-50% correction can be considered a "collapse" depending on how quickly that change takes place. A 5-10pc correction, yes. A 30-50pc correction won't happen, quickly or slowly, quantitative easing will see to that.....until a final hyperinflationary collapse. That's where we are headed with intermittent periods of deflation in between in my opinion.

Menelaus, have you really put all your investments in to physical gold?

Does it sound like I have put all my investments in physical gold? There's a lot of money to be made as far as I'm concerned if one takes the time to understand what's really driving markets now days and learns to cope with all the volatility. I don't always get it right, but then again as someone filthy rich once said "it doesn't matter how often you are right or wrong - what only matters is how much you make when you are right versus how much you lost when you are wrong"



Menelaus Joined: 03 Feb 05
Replies: 632 26 May 11 22:23 
Whippet -

One of the best posts you've ever written.

Your points are well taken, I fully agree the value one brings to the forum should be judged by the quality of the input, not one's size of wallet. After all, as you stated, I would take a guess even the "big" players on here are small fish in the overall scheme of things.

You do post some interesting stuff one here, a lot I agree with, some I don't, but if we all shared the same opinions there wouldn't be a market. I posted this before but I'll say it again, I don't post my trades on here because if I did I would be obligated to post any subsequent changes to my positions otherwise eventually posting the outcome when I close those positions loses all credibility. In my case, since most of my trading in equities now revolve around ETFs, those changes could and usually do occur several times a trading day. As you know, there's a decay factor to consider when trading leveraged ETFs so it's not very often I hang on to positions for longer than a few days. Also some of the positions I take in the markets are simply hedges to larger long or short positions that I have mostly through options, so without spending time to explain their purpose, a reader will undoubtedly misinterpret what my read of the market may be at that point in time. That's why I usually limit my discussions to more macro views on the market that have a tendency not to change on a daily basis.

good boy

...here's a biscuit...


now roll over the other side

3....2....1...

Huge miss in the employment numbers for May in the US. Weakest numbers since September 2010.

May Non-Farm Payrolls 54K versus 258K consensus
May Private Sector Jobs 83K versus 253K consensus
Unemployment rate 9.1(May) vs. 9.0(April) despite huge numbers falling off the back end.

Where did all the QE2 money go?

If you weren't shorting the US markets this week, you weren't paying attention to what I was saying for a few weeks now......or you were busy lining up to buy an ipad.

The imaginary, black-box, Birth/Death adjustment was a massive 206K the highest number in 16 months. Take this government manipulation away and the real NFP is -150K. Yes, that's a minus sign in from of the number and their economy needs to add +150K just to thread water.

Well done, Mr. Chairman, that transitory inflation you told us about squeezed margins which led to today's numbers, no big surprise to anyone who ever attended a couple of days of an Econ. 101 class, but evidently a big surprise to you and your cohorts. What's the medicine? But more of the same of course. When is the American public going to realize that Bernanke's money printing only helps his insolvent member banks, dislocates stock prices from reality, increases commodities prices, lowers their purchasing power and causes further malinvestment by government and the financial sector but does absolutely nothing for the man on the street?

What's the solution? More QE of course.....after a much needed break to rein-in inflation head winds and gather enough political cover. Trade accordingly.......

lucky31
Date Joined: 02 Apr 11
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When: 03 Jun 11 00:02
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good boy

...here's a biscuit...


now roll over the other side

3....2....1...

=======================================

Aww you don't understand any of this thread so just resort to mocking. You just show yourself up with replies like that. Keep your mouth shut and be thought a fool instead of posting crap and removing all doubt!

Don't feed the trolls J2BLUE.

You just show yourself up with replies like that. Keep your mouth shut and be thought a fool instead of posting crap and removing all doubt!

FFS if you're going to accuse someone of being a fool at least try and think of an insult of your own.

lol all these threads end up in fights, I dunno Mel has a knack of winding people up. This whole Qe3 will come down to oil, even the UN today are complaining about speculators driving up oil and its true price should be $80 of monopoly money :D, so this is where the battle rests, if "they" cant drive down oil there wont be anymore QE.

What do you think Pierre, is today the day the market crashes? Sorry, I couldn't resist that one.

At the risk of boring everyone else who gets it, let me go over this one more time.

QE1 technically speaking was not monetization, Bernanke referred to it as credit easing, not quantitative easing, and he was correct. It was basically an exercise of preventing an insolvent financial system from collapsing by taking a lot of toxic paper from those insolvent and under-capitalized institutions onto the FED's balance sheet, hence not inflationary. QE2 was directly monetizing USG expenditures/deficits, clearly an exercise in money printing entering the broad economy and hence inflationary.

The price of Oil was affected, as were prices for all commodities, by this inflationary pressure brought on by QE2 but also by the banks speculating with their new found "wealth" as a result of QE1. After all, what's one to do when they wake up one morning and discover that instead of holding worthless toxic assets and being insolvent, they now have a pile of freshly printed FRNs that they can chase yield with. A lot safer to drive up stock and commodities prices rather than lend it to a diminishing number of investors asking for credit or consumers that are no longer credit worthy.

But that doesn't explain all the Oil price movement. The markets are beginning to price in the realization that "easy and cheap" oil is all but gone. Central banks can print money but there's nothing they can do about geology. Contrary to OPEC jawboning (mostly Saudi Arabia actually) the spigots are running at full capacity and have been for some time now, none of this "we'll increase production to make up for the Libya shortfall, or we'll increase production to drive the price down and speculators out" nonsense. Layer on top of that an emerging market demand that continues to grow year over year and I would say we'd need to see a pretty massive economic and deflationary collapse (and we might if we get to the point that the nuclear disaster at Fukushima can not be swept under the carpet anymore) for Oil to drop back down to the $70-75 level.

The FED has been trying to bring down the price of Oil through various other means which have nothing to quantitative easing with mixed success (margin calls, naked short selling through proxies, Opec jawboning, statements about use of USG strategic reserve, etc.) with mixed success.......or perhaps, transitory success. Oil is the world's alpha commodity (unless you think there's another reason that the US Army has parked itself or just at the door step of Oil producing countries is a coincidence) and the world knows this, which makes it incredibly difficult even for the FED to control. So much for oil.

Now on to QE3. There's a few questions you should be asking yourself if you don't think QE3 is coming that have nothing to do with $80 oil. How will the USG fund itself and it's grotesque trillion $ plus annual deficits if the FED walks away from monetizing? How will interest rates not go up with the FED walking away? What will an increase in interest rate do to the USG's ability to service it's debt? And this at a time when and equal amount of USG debt is maturing and needs to be rolled over. Who will buy this massive amount of debt needed to keep the USG functioning and more importantly keep them from defaulting? Layer those funding needs on top of all the debt that needs to be rolled over and newly issued in Europe and you may just beginning to see why it's IMPOSSIBLE for the FED to walk away.

And the second question. With a "double dip" everywhere in global economy now clearly in sight, sovereign solvency issues in Europe taking center stage (you can only kick the can down the road so long), US housing market definitely in a double dip, what will this do to the balance sheets of the financial institutions? Will the FED allow a balance sheet recession (asset deflation) to take place and risk another potential financial system collapse when most of it's actions so far have been geared towards avoiding EXACTLY that?

What you need spend time thinking is WHEN will QE3 take place, not if it's going to take place. MORE IMPORTANTLY what will the FED buy in this round of money printing? This is the only way you'll find yourself on the right side of the trade.  Or the alternative you can wait and see if Oil gets down to what that irrelevant and no longer credible organization called the UN says it should go down to.

You don't think the market can crash terribly when everyone is leveraged upto their eyeballs, even pension funds all on speculation of qe1qe2qe3qe4qe5qe6? "on the right side of the trade" what trades mel? you haven't posted one trade the whole time you've been on this forum, you've ridiculed others ive seen plenty of that. I can tell you're not a trader you're full of hot air, you post nothing of substance. Give me 1 prediction, Qe3 will take place but you dont know when is all you've got? wow what wisdom.

Also wtf you laughing at? today the day the market crashes? ive been shorting since 12500 on the dow you muppet. I'm blocking you, you're clown and a troll.

Nice to see that at least Pierre knows the score with this clown.

As is well known I've had my issues with Menelaus and his arrogance in the past, but he's definitely not a clown and I favour and support his well expressed opinions on this matter in question.
You would all do well to really listen to what he is saying here.

Pierre, I believe you (well, sort of) that you've been shorting since 12,500 on the DOW. The problem is that you were also shorting from 8,000 all the way up to 12,500. That's the problem with perma-bears, they usually blow up by the time they get something right.....a correction that is, NOT A CRASH.

As for QE3, you answered the questions I raised so eloquently how can I not buy into your "no QE3 thesis"?

It's so typical of this forum. When you set someone straight for posting rubbish without even understanding why (yes, Pierre, that's you, you are clueless what QE is and it was intended to accomplish so far and why the next round of QE -after a break- is inevitable), you get called names and are accused of trolling. As for posting my trades, I addressed the question numerous times before on the forum so I would suggest you spend more time reading my posts more carefully. You might just learn something.

I agree with mel here. There is no chance of collapse any time soon. All that will happen is we will continue to kick the can down the road a little longer. That means QE3 is inevitable at some point.

There is a lot of emphasis being placed by people (especially on this forum) on the price of oil. It is pretty much irrelevant whilst the market remains ****. I tried to explain this to some people a few months ago, some of which lost a hardly insignificant sized chunk of their portfolio selling right in the middle of the japan earthquake, just because the oil price was high. There will not be a crash, simple as.

I think there could well be a correction though, maybe 10%, across a number of markets, which is why I started shorting a number of them recently, as detailed on this forum. Pure speculation, but I think that the correction will coincide with the end of QE2 (perhaps this is the correction, and it has already started?), and will end when we either get bigger hints from the big B about QE3, or people wake up and realise that it is simply inevitable.

Now as to melly's question as to what you can trade to profit from this knowledge. This is what we should be focusing on. I would like to be enlightened as to what people's ideas for the USD or t-bills etc are going to do, as I frankly don't have much idea about either, and would like to learn.

However for equities, I am thinking that there could be a major buying opportunity for anything commodities related rather soon. Going on recent performance, energy and basic materials have performed terribly in the last few months. Risk seems to be part of it, as defensive sectors (consumer goods etc) seem to have done rather well recently. I already like the idea of buying more commodities right now, as I can only see them going in one direction long term (we all know why). Short term I can see them going down further though, as part of a overall market correction/qe2 ending. However when the inevitable QE3 is hinted at, I can foresee there being some tremendous value about, particularly in the small caps, who all seem to be trading at 25-50% discount from their price earlier this year.

qe3 wouldnt be great in my opinion, and i think most of the market operators share the same view.
it wouldnt help anything in terms of long term rates as at best it would just steepen even further the curve. inflation expectations would go up and then it would be more difficult to finance the deficit.
same with the ecb, markets are happy to see things go back to normal ( if you can call normal a world with real interest rates still way below zero ). so a move to dovish on thursday can be seen negativly.
anyway,the bonds have been in a secular rally, when i started my career an 8% coupon was thought to be the norm, nowadays people buy Ts at 3%..with or without the fed.

the thing to understand now is wheter we re in a double dip situation or not.
i wouldnt read too much in the ism manufacturing, a drop of 6-7 pts in a month is surely going to be subject to revisions next month ( and i accept large bets about it ), still it came down from the best cumulative 3 ism readings i can remember ( last 3 reading totalled > 180 ). the average ism since creation is been 52.7, if anything was surprising to see it at 60 with gdp growth barely >2.
still, ism services was stronger and healthy, and job creation, although disappointing was still 300k in the last 2 month ( markets were euphoric to see 247k for april, and some relief to read it confirmed on friday ). the death/birth adjustment is a normal thing to do, if new company spring up but they re not computed in the total, somehow one need to take them into account ( and anyway it s like a SA number as in the winter you tend to have a negative adjustment ).
im not in the bearish camp, i think we had a bit of a soft patch ( same thing happened exactly 1yr ago ) which is normal anyway ( or we forgot we re healing from the worst economic disasters of our lifetime ). soon the expectations will move south and we ll have a string of 'positive' readings ( above expectations ). and the market will turn positive again. this is exactly what the market lacks sometime, a critical sense of what s happening ( we like to compare to expectations, and we forget to compare to previous months or to trend or to breakeven points ).

one more thing about the oil, it s a nice theory about geology and all that, but oil price, like any asset, depends on demand and supply, so although it s more and more expensive to drill it, if the world economy turn sour again, it can easily trade back sub 50. it aint the cheapest thing to store, to transport, etc, so if the global demand fade, then the price of oil will drop too.

@ JW

Who are these "market operators" you speak of? Would it be Hugh Hendry at Eclectica who's been bleeding money waiting for FED/CB's to raise rates? Would it be John Taylor of FX Concepts whose every fund is in negative territory waiting for the FED to tighten? Would it be  Bill Gross of PIMCO who's getting his scalp handed to him on a platter shorting USTs? Just who are these market operators?

No one said QE3 would be good, just that QE3 is inevitable. It won't work, the same way the preceding iterations did not work, not to mention diminishing returns from every iteration. Why do it then? Because once you get passed the obvious issues (how does the USG find buyers for 1.6 $USD trillion debt every year from here to eternity? - no one has answered my question yet) the battle the FED is waging is ONLY about one thing: ASSET DEFLATION. Bernanke will QE to infinity if need be (ultimately destroying the USD), rather than allow asset deflation to take down the financial system. You understand that, you understand what quantitative easing is all about. Collapsing in a hyperinflationary inferno later is deemed better than collapsing into a deflationary spiral now.

The economic numbers are not as you say, this is not a soft patch, but I don't feel like writing another 3,000 word post to debate it. The ISM numbers were horrid but beyond that the economic indicators are negative everywhere, this is not a US localized downturn.  Japan is a basket case and getting worse, China's bubble is beginning to show signs of blowing, euroland sovereign solvency issues are getting harder and harder to kick down the road and the US housing market (that's asset deflation on bank balance sheets) is confirmed in a double dip. The deflationary winds are starting to blow hard. But if you think this is a "soft patch", then it's a soft patch, I don't want to waste time debating it.

As far as your comment about the B/L model being a "normal thing", no one said the model is not normal, it's the numbers that are being reported that are not normal and laughable.  Are you aware that if a business is called and no one answers, it's preciously reported employment numbers are STILL included in the model? The May "share" of jobs added by the B/L model was twice that of the prior three months.......soft patch and all. It's laughable, it's blatant government manipulation of the numbers, plain and simple.

The Oil "easily trading sub $50" if the economy turns sour again comment reminds me of a call someone else made earlier in the year on this forum that Gold would be trading sub $1,000 right about now. It's possible, everything in this upside world is possible but not very likely, especially in the midst of all this loose monetary policy madness. The FED is printing, China is printing (worse offender of all actually but that's a debate for a different day), BoE is printing, the ECB is essentially printing through swaps with the FED. It's madness. Unless we have a catastrophic deflationary collapse event (Fukushima comes to mind - it's far from over yet and TEPCO has been quietly releasing a lot of dire information of late and I don't think anyone has noticed yet) seeing those oil prices again is very unlikely. Even if we do, what do you think the FED's response will be to this deflationary collapse? It's naive to think the FED will just throw the towel in after waging this battle and expanding their balance sheet by trillions for the last three years.

QE3 is inevitable after a sufficiently long break to cool down inflationary headwinds, avoid a disorderly decline of the USD and give the FED much needed political cover (they may even design it and call it something else to get around this last serious obstacle). It's a matter of how long will the break between QE2 and QE3 be, "how much"  and more importantly what will the FED buy in the next version of QE. Everything else is eye wash.




@ Whippet

From your earlier post "......what you can trade to profit from this knowledge. This is what we should be focusing on........."

Spot on. How you trade "QE2 ends - reduced POMO through reinvesting maturing MBSs into USTs - inevitable QE3" is what we should be spending time debating, not if it's going to happen, or the fringe events like a market crash or a deflationary collapse of $50 Oil.

Bernanke's speech last evening at the International Monetary Conference:

QE2 ends in time & QE2 lite begins:

"Against this backdrop, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has maintained a highly accommodative monetary policy, keeping its target for the federal funds rate close to zero and further easing monetary conditions through large-scale asset purchases. The FOMC has indicated that it will complete its purchases of $600 billion of Treasury securities by the end of this month while maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its securities holdings. The Committee also continues to anticipate that economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate for an extended period."

No QE3 for now but.........get ready for it:

"Although it is moving in the right direction, the economy is still producing at levels well below its potential; consequently, accommodative monetary policies are still needed."

The full speech:
http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/bernanke20110607a.htm

I'd say things are moving along as planned

the big b has said that he expects growth to be better in the second half of this year. When that doesn't materialize, he will start hinting at QE3, just in time for the presidential elections in 2012. Need to make everything appear rosey to get Obama re elected dontchaknow?

Well its all very precarious and uncertain, I still think no-one is calculating the huge amounts of radiation emitting from Japan, and how this will kill growth dead and a subprime mortgage market that is probably worse today than 2008. Everyone believes Qe3 wont work so why do it? imploding the US economy by not using more stimulus could be infact the best plan, because it will be bad for them, but MUCH Much worse for every other country in relative terms.

But if there is Qe3 what form could it take? it would have to be something that goes straight into the consumer pocket and not to wallstreet, if it was me id give everyone in foreclosure their houses for free or no payments for 10yrs. Of course this would be impossible to implement although many haven't paid their mortgage payments for a long time now so that policy is already kind of in effect.

You are all looking the wrong way to try to figure out if and when QE3 will come. QE has nothing to do with the supporting the broad economy, nothing to do with creating new jobs. It's all smoke and mirrors. These people are criminals but they are certainly not stupid.

QE1 did exactly what it was intended to do.....save the banks

QE2 did exactly what it was intended to do.....fund the USG at the lowest possible rates

QE3 will do exactly what it will be intended to.....save the banks....again

So keep your eyes on deflationary events (yes, Fukushima could be the mother of all black swans, I already posted about it, euroland sovereign solvency issues is another - Greek "reprofiling" is far from over), credit default events (US munis come to mind), continued US housing price collapse, tightening of inter-bank lending (they don't know who holds these CDSs, so lending will freeze in case of a major default), rising VIX, rising gold prices, opening new swap lines with the ECB (the current ones are set to expire in August) for your clues. Normal economic indicators (GDP, Unemployment, ISM, etc.) will reveal nothing.

When (not if), "how much" (will it even be called QE3) and how will it be executed (what will they buy)? is what one needs to spend time figuring out if they want to find themselves on the right side of the trade.

Just to add to the points Pierre is making about some kind of a stimulus program that goes straight into the consumer's pocket (ie. give anyone in foreclosure their houses for free, etc, etc,), the obstacles are significant not the least of which is (whatever form a "stimulus" package may take - debt forgiveness, mortgage payment relief, tax relief, etc.) WHO PAYS? The USG is currently spending $2s for every one $ it brings in, hence the massive deficits. It borrows the rest. Is the USG able to offer any kind of a stimulus program without raising their already obscene borrowing needs? These people argued for almost two months until they agreed to reduce their budget by an insignificant 1pc. Who, if not the FED monetizing, will be in a position to buy their debt?

Perhaps Bernanke can come up with a scheme where the banks take the hit for mortgage relief, provides the banks huge liquidity through various lending windows and guarantees their paper to keep them capitalized. It's a big circle jerk with confetti money anyways and with the accounting rules what they are (or they are not, I should say) now days who's to know the difference. The only fly in the ointment may be that those still continuing to accept the USD in exchange for oil and other hard assets may have other ideas.

What a mess.

PierreLaRogue
How about getting everybody remotely connected with working in the financial mkts in the US and London and Frankfurt and Paris  to give back all the obscene bonus monies they have personally received over the past decade, put a large number of Wall St structured finance investment bankers and other senior banking figures in jail for a very long time, and let the ordinary people feel that " greed does not pay after all ".
Would all just be symbolic and cosmetic, but hell it would make the ordinary populace feel an awful lot better and start to get out of bed again in the morning with a bit of a bounce to their step.
At the moment the ggeneral populace still feels absolutely disgusted at the apparent inabilty or unwillingness of the various Govt's to apportion some sort of blame and mete out some sort of serious punsishment for the mess that has been created by these criminal bankers ( yes I mean all the buddies Menelus probably still has regular dinner parties with.).

Sorry folks just woke up and realised I'd been posting up in my dreams.
Back to the nightmare of reality.

In all honesty greed doesn't pay .. Money is for the weak & needy .. the true warriors will fight to the end if needs be .. Money won't win the battle .. it'll barely save you from having to fight

Ooops sorry 1 too many Buds

Lloyds shares .. yes Lloyds shares .. Nothing else matters

Saw a great 'investment property' today .. but do i need to 'invest' .. what for my 'future'  . . . . .

FAFH, that's uncalled for, I can state categorically that I haven't had dinner with Bob Diamond and his lovely wife Jennifer for at least three months now.

On a more serious note, I totally agree that the banks need to be restrained and the entire financial system reformed before we see any real change. Putting some of these criminals in jail would be a good start. Unfortunately our elected representatives have been bought and paid for in this incestuous relationship with the bankers so don't hold your breath.......which I think was the whole point of your post.

"--Unfortunately our elected representatives have been bought and paid for in this incestuous relationship with the bankers----".
Therein lies the real weakness in the Western system of democracy, at least as it has now played out over time.
Btw I saw Bob the other day on the beach out here ( very buff indeed), and he sends his regards.

Sometimes I feel like joining Menelaus on his bandwagon and shouting absolutely and unconditionally, as is his wont, that interest rates are NEVER going to go up again.
But somehow I just can't seem to get into that black or white mode.

Its all very bad, FAFH, capitalism puts profits before people and when it fails the losses are socialised, also not a lot economists talk about the major killer of jobs, and thats machines/robots.

This video explains it so well

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ab2xJM5bocM

If I post a long explanation why automation is not a major job killer, and in fact argue that technology (that's what machines/robots are) created new jobs through industries that didn't exist 50, 20 or even 10 years ago, would I be thought of as being a troll again?

May be we should go back to the days of the horse and buggy and everything will be well again...

And finally, capitalism works if it's allowed to work. One of the founding principles of capitalism is proper assessment of risk and price discovery. The problem at the moment is that the government interventionism that supports the financial kleptocracy makes those two things impossible to price. Hence, no new investment, no new growth, no new job creation. Only growth through "financial innovation" that sucks the life out of the real productive economy. The system needs to collapse and rebuild anew, not reformed. We're getting there......

If I post a long explanation why automation is not a major job killer, and in fact argue that technology (that's what machines/robots are) created new jobs through industries that didn't exist 50, 20 or even 10 years ago, would I be thought of as being a troll again?


If you used that type of confirmation bias with respect to fiat currency you'd think gold was a barbarous relic.

Speculate a little and have aguess where it ends.


May be we should go back to the days of the horse and buggy and everything will be well again...


That's what you pretty much advocate.

Capitalism works if it resets it's imbalances, some times that requires a recession, sometimes it requires a depression and sometimes, like it's going to sooner or later, it requires a nuclear war that sends us back to the stone age.

@ LazyRamper

If you used that type of confirmation bias with respect to fiat currency you'd think gold was a barbarous relic.

Mighty big assumption on your part, or are you just laying down a strawman argument? Or better yet, are you trying to impress me you know the terms "confirmation bias" and "barbarous relic"?

Speculate a little and have aguess where it ends.


I'll tell you where it ends, I've been posting it ad nauseum on this forum....hyperinflation. Evidently you've been busy figuring out the end of the world and missed it.

That's what you pretty much advocate.


I have no idea where you got that impression, nor how you came to the conclusion that I advocate that, so you leave me speechless......and that's some accomplishment.

Capitalism works if it resets it's imbalances, some times that requires a recession, sometimes it requires a depression and sometimes, like it's going to sooner or later, it requires a nuclear war that sends us back to the stone age.

What imbalances, that the smart, innovative and entrepreneurial prosper and the stupid, lazy and clueless suffer? Those imbalances? I think you've spending too much time reading socialist propaganda instead of making sure you provide the best possible future for your family.

So nuclear war will happen sooner or later? This is how you see the system "resetting"? If that's the case, and you are convinced of that, you should sell all your assets and spend it on VIP escorts, blow and booze instead of wasting your time trying to sound smart on here.

I'll tell you where it ends, I've been posting it ad nauseum on this forum....hyperinflation.

And that changes the course we are on as far as jobs are concerned? Don't think so.

Speculate what happens in 200 years time in a post hyperinflationary world where the global population is declining and the global working population is declining even faster.

What imbalances, that the smart, innovative and entrepreneurial prosper and the stupid, lazy and clueless suffer? Those imbalances?

That only holds true up to a point. Once the rich reach the point when they can create a system that protects there current advantage and limits the next generation the chance of a power change reduces massively. That's where we are right now and that's why a financial kleptocracy exists.

So nuclear war will happen sooner or later? This is how you see the system "resetting"?

If humans are governed by individual self interest then it's a certainty.

Now there's a word I haven't seen in a long time without the word narco before it. I'm sure there's a good book about the comparsions of the financial & drugs world.

And that changes the course we are on as far as jobs are concerned? Don't think so.

Who said it does?

Speculate what happens in 200 years time in a post hyperinflationary world where the global population is declining and the global working population is declining even faster.

Global population grew from about 2 billion in 1950 to 6 billion plus today (don't hold me to these numbers, I'm going by memory) predominantly because of one reason......OIL. Global population will decline in the future predominantly because of one reason.....LACK OF OIL. I can't speculate what happens in 200 years, I'm into economics not science fiction.

That only holds true up to a point. Once the rich reach the point when they can create a system that protects there current advantage and limits the next generation the chance of a power change reduces massively. That's where we are right now and that's why a financial kleptocracy exists.

True up to a point about wealth accumulation. Financial kleptocracy exists however because of many reasons but mainly because greed is a human trait. Secondly, far more important, because we've allowed a very small group of elite to control society's money supply and favor the chosen few members of their cabal. As a first step to building a new system, the ability to printing money out of thin air through a cartel of central banks should be abolished. The fiat monetary system is the biggest fraud and ponzi scheme ever foisted upon mankind. It has absolutely NOTHING to do however with capitalism, or capitalism's failing.

If humans are governed by individual self interest then it's a certainty.


Nothing, except death, is a certainty. Unless the elite have discovered a way of surviving a nuclear holocaust that I don't know about, pushing the red button is not an option.

At any rate, I think you've read "in between the lines" much more than I ever intended to say in my posts. These are unprecedented times we are now living in and I'm just someone who's trying to read the tea leaves, trying to figure things out in order to best protect my wealth for the sake of my two young daughters. That's all. I'll leave the futuristic predictions to those much smarter than me.

There we have it at last folks.
Straight from his own mouth.
Menelaus says in his last sentence "----I'm just someone who's trying to read the tea leaves----. That's all.--- ".
Earl Grey though of course.

Beats my method of throwing darts I suppose. Or does it ? Hmmmm.

"Menelaus says in his last sentence "----I'm just someone who's trying to read the tea leaves----. That's all.--- ".
Earl Grey though of course. "

I've got a theory that melly has attended therapy of some sort.Anger management perhaps?

The new melly does not seem at all like the previous one.mmmmmmmmmm Or is someone ghost writing for him?

I knew it wouldn't be long until you started littering the forum with your rubbish again. I only have one question for you: Have you learned how money gets created yet?

Comedian still spewing out your garbage , what a loser this clown is .

pretends to be the financial wizad of the world when working as a 5 loonie an hour burger flipper.

ahhhhhhh   will the real melly  please stand up!

I was talking about oil on this thread and said this "But if there is Qe3 what form could it take? it would have to be something that goes straight into the consumer pocket and not to wallstreet" and the answer is? release all the oil! this could have been predicted and made us all very rich but no-one put the pieces together.

But it has only dropped oil 5 bucks , if they cant break 90 after all their tricks they're screwed, they cannot print more money THEY KNOW IT! oil is debilitating their QE plans and they're throwing the kitchen sink at it but still it stays strong, 91 now!

I think all those peak oil doubters today got their answer.

COMEDIAN, you can appear, disappear, reappear, register under 100 different aliases

IT DOESN'T MATTER

the damage is done COMEDIAN you were stupid enough to let me in your head


I own you now, get over it

THELUCKY31

Menelaus






23 Jun 11 16:20
Joined:


03 Feb 05
| Topic/replies: 759 | Blogger: Menelaus's blog



I think all those peak oil doubters today got their answer.

AND what exactly is YOUR opinion on the direction of oil melly?

do you have an opinion?

or will you just wait until someone else posts theirs and tell them thay are wrong?
huh??

  where to for oil melly?

At least you are starting to ask questions instead of posting clueless rubbish. That's good, I hope you keep it up.

again melanus fails to state his position.

That's because if I post an 1,000 word post explaining the relevant issues with Oil and where I feel the direction is going, 990 words will go right over your head. Just like you still don't understand the deflation/hyperinflation debate. Don't waste my time, Benny.

Benny, here's an excerpt from an earlier post on this thread.

Menelaus Joined: 03 Feb 05
Replies: 764 06 Jun 11 14:55 
..................
The FED has been trying to bring down the price of Oil through various other means which have nothing to quantitative easing with mixed success (margin calls, naked short selling through proxies, Opec jawboning, statements about use of USG strategic reserve, etc.) with mixed success.......or perhaps, transitory success. Oil is the world's alpha commodity (unless you think there's another reason that the US Army has parked itself or just at the door step of Oil producing countries is a coincidence) and the world knows this, which makes it incredibly difficult even for the FED to control. So much for oil.
..................

That was posted by me on June 11, you can scroll down and read the entire post.

Let's see:

margin calls - CME Group hiked margin requirements on oil and gasoline on June 18 - CHECK

naked short selling through proxies - large positions were liquidated and Goldman issued a "sell oil"
recommendation on June 15 - CHECK

OPEC jawboning - KSA released statement about increasing production on June 14 after failing to gain consensus at the OPEC meeting the previous week - CHECK

statements about use of USG strategic reserve - IEA announcement on June 23 - CHECK


How's that for taking a position Benny? Or by position perhaps you meant aftertiming the price of oil the morning after a major move and try to look intelligent doing it. If you paid more attention to what was actually posted on here instead of constantly spewing rubbish, then you'd be able to understand. Then again perhaps you'll never be able to understand because this stuff is just so totally over you head. I'll take door number two.

the fed
cme group
opec

where is YOUR opinion melly?

i can read the news as well as anyone else.

and what is the use of the news anyway? according to you every cent of any move is "priced in" before the news is release.

I'm confused melly on the one hand you say the news is useless. on the other hand your quoting it ad naseum.Which is it?

melly - just confess you  have absolutely no idea.Your a pretender.

Benny, you are thick as a brick. My comment that everything I post seems to be going over your head was spot on. Let the forum decide who knows what they are talking about on here and who's just noise. Good luck punting on Australian races Benny.

Let's see:

margin calls - CME Group hiked margin requirements on oil and gasoline on June 18 - CHECK

naked short selling through proxies - large positions were liquidated and Goldman issued a "sell oil"
recommendation on June 15 - CHECK

OPEC jawboning - KSA released statement about increasing production on June 14 after failing to gain consensus at the OPEC meeting the previous week - CHECK

statements about use of USG strategic reserve - IEA announcement on June 23 - CHECK


How's that for taking a position Benny? Or by position perhaps you meant aftertiming the price of oil the morning after a major move and try to look intelligent doing it.


i have to admit you are quite spot on, but ( and i ask only out of curiosity, as it s not clear at all from the thread ), when you typed the above, are you telling mrben you went short oil in june? if yes, are you taking profit anytime soon? if not, is it because you believe this move is only a temporary drop in an otherwise secular uptrend?

YES, my post (and others in relation to the same issue I put up) should have been self-explanatory to those paying attention....Bernanke talks in FED code, and to those who can interpret it, it clearly meant Oil and PM's were about to be assaulted big time. They were. Going short was the correct play.

NO,the move still has legs, petrol prices in the US are not where they want them yet.

YES, but I like "transitory" better....but yes, easy/cheap oil is out of the ground and burned, gone FOREVER. The FED can print money but not Oil and geology wins at the end.


My post "I think all those peak oil doubters today got their answer" went right over Benny's head, like most everything I post on here. It was meant to draw attention to the fact that the TPTB are now relying on jawboning (IEA announcement) to drive the price of oil down (is that possibly a securities violation by the way? If not, how is not openly manipulating the oil price not one? And who had access to this information to front run it since the oil futures started diving sharply in the hours before the announcement?). OPEC or more specifically KSA announces increases production is not credible any more. The spigots have been running full open for sometime now, virtually no one has the ability to ramp up.

I always like to put the question this way when I debate the peak oil issue: What does oil production look like over the last 10 years when looked at on a global PER CAPITA basis. Think about it.

another totally worthless melly post

200 words of pure nothing.

JW's  question-"
when you typed the above, are you telling mrben you went short oil in june? if yes, are you taking profit anytime soon? if not, is it because you believe this move is only a temporary drop in an otherwise secular uptrend?

melly went short oil? did he take a pfofit? What will he do now?
aftertimer of the decade.

Post a real time trade you pretender.

what the feck is wrong with you?

is the calendar in australia run backwards? WTF???

he put his post up on the 11th

what he predicted took place on the 18th, 15th, 14th and 23rd respectively

and you accuse him of after timing !!!!


what a real stupid dork you are ozzie man

what the feck is wrong with you?

is the calendar in australia run backwards? WTF???

he put his post up on the 11th

what he predicted took place on the 18th, 15th, 14th and 23rd respectively

and you accuse him of after timing !!!!


what a real stupid dork you are ozzie man