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My only hope is that they all list before the fed liquidity is pulled.
Are you suggesting FED liquidity has been lifting these markets? I think I read that on here before I just can't remember where....
Are you suggesting FED liquidity has been lifting these markets? I think I read that on here before I just can't remember where....
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menelaus when do you believe the Fed will pull liquidity?
bobby, weren't you the one who posted you were abandoning the forum, all because I thought JW was being hypocritical trashing my posts while at the same time giving a by to all the trolls who come on with the express purpose of harassing, not contributing? 
Nevertheless, the short answer is I don't know. But here's my best read of the situation:
The FED is not continuing with QE2, at least not in this form, and at least not until it takes a breather first. About $100 billion of direct monetization every month through POMO will be replaced with about $20 billion of buying USTs with the funds available to the FED on maturing MBSs on their balance sheet (no balance sheet expansion) after the end of QE2 in June. This much we know. The end of QE2 in my opinion does not mean the equities markets will take a dive. The banks have been recapitilized enough to act as FED/CB proxies in keeping the markets up. Campaigning for the 2012 election has already started and markets that are diving (and 401Ks getting smashed) don't get Presidents re-elected. So buying the dip still applies as far as I'm concerned.
The question remains, who will buy USG debt if the FED doesn't (or slows down). The answer to this question is why some argue that monetization will continue (QE3). I disagree. I am of the opinion that the FED will continue to monetize surreptitiously similar to what they had done in Sep. 2008. Furthermore, the CB's are all in this together, and they'll buy each others debt, after all who's auditing and with OBS entries and accounting standards the way the other now who's to know.
Inflation is the FED's number one enemy right now and predictably, as Bernanke "warned" the markets (he thought inflation was transitory), commodities are at the receiving end of an organized and vicious smack-down. The FED needs breathing space for the next round of QE which will surely come as the economy worsens, unemployment remains stubbornly high, and solvency issues fuel another deflationary collapse. This presents another buying opportunity for those wanting to accumulate PMs (physical). It's not the paper price that will eventually determine the fate of the gold/silver market, it's lack of inventory.
Nevertheless, the short answer is I don't know. But here's my best read of the situation:
The FED is not continuing with QE2, at least not in this form, and at least not until it takes a breather first. About $100 billion of direct monetization every month through POMO will be replaced with about $20 billion of buying USTs with the funds available to the FED on maturing MBSs on their balance sheet (no balance sheet expansion) after the end of QE2 in June. This much we know. The end of QE2 in my opinion does not mean the equities markets will take a dive. The banks have been recapitilized enough to act as FED/CB proxies in keeping the markets up. Campaigning for the 2012 election has already started and markets that are diving (and 401Ks getting smashed) don't get Presidents re-elected. So buying the dip still applies as far as I'm concerned.
The question remains, who will buy USG debt if the FED doesn't (or slows down). The answer to this question is why some argue that monetization will continue (QE3). I disagree. I am of the opinion that the FED will continue to monetize surreptitiously similar to what they had done in Sep. 2008. Furthermore, the CB's are all in this together, and they'll buy each others debt, after all who's auditing and with OBS entries and accounting standards the way the other now who's to know.
Inflation is the FED's number one enemy right now and predictably, as Bernanke "warned" the markets (he thought inflation was transitory), commodities are at the receiving end of an organized and vicious smack-down. The FED needs breathing space for the next round of QE which will surely come as the economy worsens, unemployment remains stubbornly high, and solvency issues fuel another deflationary collapse. This presents another buying opportunity for those wanting to accumulate PMs (physical). It's not the paper price that will eventually determine the fate of the gold/silver market, it's lack of inventory.
Id advise everyone out there to not waste their time reading all that squit for Melanie
It translate to this , Im a loser , I work for peanuts at Maccy d's flipping burgers and
I have a pretned family and I pay my pretend Pc charge in either CDN or Big Macs
It translate to this , Im a loser , I work for peanuts at Maccy d's flipping burgers and
I have a pretned family and I pay my pretend Pc charge in either CDN or Big Macs
I'll give Menelaus credit as his comments are worthy of a read. If he belives that the entire world is fecked (probably about) in 2013 then that's his opinion. He does take the bait too easily but, Jesus Christ lucky31, calm down with the inane juvenile retorts. This forum has become similar to the football betting one.
Thanks for the reply Menelaus. Give it a rest with your immature comments lucky31.
bobby2424
get over to the US forum and have a look what that waster Melanie has done over there.
In the meantime FO
get over to the US forum and have a look what that waster Melanie has done over there.
In the meantime FO
Linkedin is listing on thursday at a value of $4.1 billion.
Time to get those shorts on.
Time to get those shorts on.
LOL if it was a short at 4 billion then at 8 billion? bloody ridiculous, i dunno what it is but just because it has 100 million members don't mean sh*t, AOL had that amount, AOL is valued at 2billion! today.
Where can i short this? advice please?
Where can i short this? advice please?
Going short when valuations get crazy is a dangerous game.
I was just on the phone with my broker. No one is allowed to short this at the moment. Bit of a bummer. He didn't give me a time period either, could be any time.
I am pretty sure this is going to crash though when people are allowed to short. $9 billion is a complete joke.
I am pretty sure this is going to crash though when people are allowed to short. $9 billion is a complete joke.
Whippet, for those of us new to this, how exactly do you short these shares? Find a spread firm who offers a quote and sell at the lower price? Or does this only apply to some?
Cheers.
Cheers.
well the choice is either spread bet or CFD. Currently they won't let you short it using a CFD, as you are actually trading the shares there, and shorting this stock has been banned until god knows when. Spread betting is allowed though as you are just betting on what way the price is going to move.
I was looking at the spread bet for this on igindex just now. You need a minimum of a 20% margin and the minimum bet is 24p/point. So at the current price of 9425 ($94.25), you need to put a deposit down equivalent to 1885 points (20% of 9425), which at 24p/point comes to £452. Obviously you can put your stop loss at less than 20% away, but they want a 20% deposit for some reason (probably volatility). CFDs on the other hand you can bet for alot less than that (you can even trade 1 share if you want, although bear in mind there is a £10 dealing charge on CFDs), but it might be too late by the time they let you start trading those.
I was looking at the spread bet for this on igindex just now. You need a minimum of a 20% margin and the minimum bet is 24p/point. So at the current price of 9425 ($94.25), you need to put a deposit down equivalent to 1885 points (20% of 9425), which at 24p/point comes to £452. Obviously you can put your stop loss at less than 20% away, but they want a 20% deposit for some reason (probably volatility). CFDs on the other hand you can bet for alot less than that (you can even trade 1 share if you want, although bear in mind there is a £10 dealing charge on CFDs), but it might be too late by the time they let you start trading those.
Shares in business networking website LinkedIn have more than doubled on their trading debut in New York, having been priced at $45 each.
oops
oops
What do you mean oops? Is that some sort of sly dig?
You do realise that A) the shares opened at over $80, and B) it is still impossible to short them. The way you could have 'lost' money is if you were already a shareholder, and sold at the ipo price.
You do realise that A) the shares opened at over $80, and B) it is still impossible to short them. The way you could have 'lost' money is if you were already a shareholder, and sold at the ipo price.
So did you do it? i see that its on IG now, i know its crazy valuation but still takes some balls to short it, to me it just shows how out of touch people on wall street are, the whole market is out of touch with reality. I'm betting on the market to crash until QE3 is announced which might not even happen, imagine if china and usa crash at the same time, we'll be looking at a 10 yr depression.
Nah I didn't in the end, I didn't have that much spare cash; to short it on Igindex you need a minimum deposit of £450 (betting at 24p/point). I am planning to do it on Igmarkets though when shorting is allowed (I think it will be allowed tuesday), as it's a bit cheaper over there.
Yes it was a sly dig and here's another couple.
You are having trouble raising £450
You don't appear to be in too much of a hurry to get in on "the short of all time"
You are having trouble raising £450
You don't appear to be in too much of a hurry to get in on "the short of all time"
It's actually unshortable on igindex as well, I just tried.
Go away stow judge. You have demonstrated numerous times you don't have the slightest clue on anything. Stick to sucking off your mate denis will you?
Go away stow judge. You have demonstrated numerous times you don't have the slightest clue on anything. Stick to sucking off your mate denis will you?
and how much did you have on renren then, if you couldnt afford a 2000£ position on linked in?
and what does the 6.6% translate into? a round of drinks?
and what does the 6.6% translate into? a round of drinks?
Ah yes, excellent, another snide remark from the prize **** of the forum. F*ck me, you are worse than those lot over on the us horse racing forum, trying to compare mythical bank and penis sizes.
Why are you bothered about what I'm doing? Do you suggest going in with 50% of my bank? Is that how "pros" like you do it?
Either contribute to this discussion - or f*ck off.
Why are you bothered about what I'm doing? Do you suggest going in with 50% of my bank? Is that how "pros" like you do it?
Either contribute to this discussion - or f*ck off.
He DID contribute to the discussion. He pointed out what was glaringly obvious to most of us for some time now that you are an ill tempered, small time amateur who tries to impress beyond his ability. Stick to exchanging hugs and kisses with MrBean, a lot safer for you that way.
Come on melly, even you can't be this stupid.
What % of your bank do you risk per trade? What % of your net worth have you risked on your MASSIVE AAPL short?
You are just confirming yet again, that you are a sociopath. I have seen you deride people over on the US racing forum, for what you claim are "made up" profits. Yet now you are trying to deride me for posting the truth? Ok then.
Why are you and johnnie so obsessed with people's bank balances? No wonder you two went into banking (or at least you claim to, but frankly if you are earning a 7 figure salary like you claim then I am the queen of england)
Post the truth - Melly tries to mock you. Post what Melly thinks is a lie - Melly mocks you again. Grow up you sad person.
What % of your bank do you risk per trade? What % of your net worth have you risked on your MASSIVE AAPL short?
You are just confirming yet again, that you are a sociopath. I have seen you deride people over on the US racing forum, for what you claim are "made up" profits. Yet now you are trying to deride me for posting the truth? Ok then.
Why are you and johnnie so obsessed with people's bank balances? No wonder you two went into banking (or at least you claim to, but frankly if you are earning a 7 figure salary like you claim then I am the queen of england)
Post the truth - Melly tries to mock you. Post what Melly thinks is a lie - Melly mocks you again. Grow up you sad person.
Whippet, you're in serious danger of turning into another Menelaus.
Fair play to you, you posted your thoughts on shorting LNKD at $45 and like a lot of people you were way off. No shame in it and we all make mistakes, just admit you dodged a bullet, learn from it and see the funny side.
Don't simply move on as if nothing went wrong, it's no better than Menelaus coming back day after day with nothing more meaningful than "the sky is falling" and when he's wrong for the 100th day in succession he then claims his incredibly vague and pointless prophesies can't come true because the whole thing is ****.
Fair play to you, you posted your thoughts on shorting LNKD at $45 and like a lot of people you were way off. No shame in it and we all make mistakes, just admit you dodged a bullet, learn from it and see the funny side.
Don't simply move on as if nothing went wrong, it's no better than Menelaus coming back day after day with nothing more meaningful than "the sky is falling" and when he's wrong for the 100th day in succession he then claims his incredibly vague and pointless prophesies can't come true because the whole thing is ****.
and it makes no difference how many dollars/shares/contracts you have or haven't traded, just the rate of return.
Yes, of course, it was a matter of time until we heard from polybot, the forum's high priest who's lone contribution is to constantly remind us everyday to.......buy all things Apple. Lovely.......
Ehy whippet to be honest it's the first time I make a comment about someones position. But in reality I wasnt commenting on the trade itself, I actually think these are unrealistic valuations, but more on the tone of the comment. You re up 6pct, you thank the world for being silly. You re down 100pct and you're quiet until someone pushes you to admit something didn't go according to plans. In the Betfair shares thread you laugh at whoever wasn't short with you at ipo prices, but now cannot take a tongue In cheek comment. One more advise, don't be rude to people when under stress, no point of tellingnpeople to fk off when they're simply asking how you fared on a previous successful trade. Ps you re short today at least?
Ok fair enough johnnie, apologies if I misinterpreted.
I'm still actually haven't been able to short it, igmarkets aren't offering it still, anyone know somewhere I can? Might have to buy some puts perhaps? (opens thursday I believe?). What is the best broker to use for those, as I've never traded them before. [:p]
I'm still actually haven't been able to short it, igmarkets aren't offering it still, anyone know somewhere I can? Might have to buy some puts perhaps? (opens thursday I believe?). What is the best broker to use for those, as I've never traded them before. [:p]
I agree though poly that the whole world who was trying to short it did dodge a bullet, but perhaps if shorting was allowed from the moment it listed then it would never have gone up 180%? we will never know.
Can anybody post anything intellectually honest on here any more?
This is the original post that quite correctly and truthfully came to the conclusion that Wipeout is a small time punter (emphasis mine):
johnnie walker Joined: 09 Jan 08
Replies: 178 23 May 11 21:57
and how much did you have on renren then, if you couldnt afford a 2000£ position on linked in?
and what does the 6.6% translate into? a round of drinks?
Here's the cop-out, "let's be friends again", post that followed once Wipeout threw yet another ill tempered, expletive filled temper tantrum (again emphasis mine):
johnnie walker Joined: 09 Jan 08
Replies: 178 24 May 11 17:30
Ehy whippet to be honest it's the first time I make a comment about someones position. But in reality I wasnt commenting on the trade itself, I actually think these are unrealistic valuations, but more on the tone of the comment. You re up 6pct, you thank the world for being silly. You re down 100pct and you're quiet until someone pushes you to admit something didn't go according to plans. In the Betfair shares thread you laugh at whoever wasn't short with you at ipo prices, but now cannot take a tongue In cheek comment. One more advise, don't be rude to people when under stress, no point of tellingnpeople to fk off when they're simply asking how you fared on a previous successful trade. Ps you re short today at least?
Perhaps I need to invest in a good condition used Enigma machine to decipher the code that keeps posted here, but how does one post the comments in the second post with a straight face, after merely a day earlier posting something totally different and totally honest given the evidence?
Do you want the truth? Can you handle the truth despite the predictable profane temper tantrum coming up? Here's the truth: Wipeout is a small time amateur punter who tries very hard to impress on here beyond his knowledge and ability. A 6pc profit on a minuscule trade is minuscule. An 100pc loss on a minuscule trade is still minuscule. That's the truth and that's the end of the story, my word.
And before polybot, the forum's high priest weighs in again, did you hear that loud noise yesterday? It was the sound of the tech sector rolling over, the charts have been screaming "sell" for days. The euphoria on those great AAPL last quarter earnings and reports of fanboys lining up around the block to buy the latest icrap has faded. Reality is setting in that the US is really in a double dip, $4 a gallon petrol is starting to bite and Bernanke's printing presses will really take a break. Not to mention the stench emitting from a myriad of other issues affecting global markets that the FED/CBs had been able to keep the lid on so far.
My AAPL puts are now in the money (yes, MASSIVE short). I think anyone with a few thousand quid in a trading account can come on here and play the part of a financial analyst, but eventually these markets have a habit of catching up with the uninitiated and those who try to fake it. That's the way it always was, that's the way it is, that's the way it will always be.
This is the original post that quite correctly and truthfully came to the conclusion that Wipeout is a small time punter (emphasis mine):
johnnie walker Joined: 09 Jan 08
Replies: 178 23 May 11 21:57
and how much did you have on renren then, if you couldnt afford a 2000£ position on linked in?
and what does the 6.6% translate into? a round of drinks?
Here's the cop-out, "let's be friends again", post that followed once Wipeout threw yet another ill tempered, expletive filled temper tantrum (again emphasis mine):
johnnie walker Joined: 09 Jan 08
Replies: 178 24 May 11 17:30
Ehy whippet to be honest it's the first time I make a comment about someones position. But in reality I wasnt commenting on the trade itself, I actually think these are unrealistic valuations, but more on the tone of the comment. You re up 6pct, you thank the world for being silly. You re down 100pct and you're quiet until someone pushes you to admit something didn't go according to plans. In the Betfair shares thread you laugh at whoever wasn't short with you at ipo prices, but now cannot take a tongue In cheek comment. One more advise, don't be rude to people when under stress, no point of tellingnpeople to fk off when they're simply asking how you fared on a previous successful trade. Ps you re short today at least?
Perhaps I need to invest in a good condition used Enigma machine to decipher the code that keeps posted here, but how does one post the comments in the second post with a straight face, after merely a day earlier posting something totally different and totally honest given the evidence?
Do you want the truth? Can you handle the truth despite the predictable profane temper tantrum coming up? Here's the truth: Wipeout is a small time amateur punter who tries very hard to impress on here beyond his knowledge and ability. A 6pc profit on a minuscule trade is minuscule. An 100pc loss on a minuscule trade is still minuscule. That's the truth and that's the end of the story, my word.
And before polybot, the forum's high priest weighs in again, did you hear that loud noise yesterday? It was the sound of the tech sector rolling over, the charts have been screaming "sell" for days. The euphoria on those great AAPL last quarter earnings and reports of fanboys lining up around the block to buy the latest icrap has faded. Reality is setting in that the US is really in a double dip, $4 a gallon petrol is starting to bite and Bernanke's printing presses will really take a break. Not to mention the stench emitting from a myriad of other issues affecting global markets that the FED/CBs had been able to keep the lid on so far.
My AAPL puts are now in the money (yes, MASSIVE short). I think anyone with a few thousand quid in a trading account can come on here and play the part of a financial analyst, but eventually these markets have a habit of catching up with the uninitiated and those who try to fake it. That's the way it always was, that's the way it is, that's the way it will always be.
Whippet, LNKD stock still on the Hard-To-Borrow List, and I'm guessing the puts will be well overpriced. This is one to avoid simply due to the interest of the big fish, they will play this like a fiddle and it could be a while before LNKD finds it's value.
Plenty of US brokers to choose from, I use Thinkorswim which is about a dollar per contract (for 20+ contracts) and they have excellent software. http://www.online-broker-guide.com/
Plenty of US brokers to choose from, I use Thinkorswim which is about a dollar per contract (for 20+ contracts) and they have excellent software. http://www.online-broker-guide.com/
Menelaus, you're an idiot fantasist, though you have beaten the Betfair aftertimer record (though even with aftertiming your "trade" doesn't add up).
Yes, of course, it was a matter of time until we heard from polybot, the forum's high priest who's lone contribution is to constantly remind us everyday to.......buy all things Apple.
Not quite lone contribution since you bring it up, the other trades on this forum posted ahead of time or at time of trade are:
MBLX.US (8.75) a long term speculative, will continue to buy if it drops (continuing to buy)
NZX.NZ (1.74) decent dividend, also growth in any potential govt asset sales etc (currently +43.02percent, ave 1.71 price paid)
NZO.NZ (.85) almost bought before Pike River disaster, lucky I didn't (+9.09percent)
SLV JUL 30 PUTS (.21) (+140percent - already sold a quarter at 400percent+)
Hope you've learnt something from this Menelaus.
Not quite lone contribution since you bring it up, the other trades on this forum posted ahead of time or at time of trade are:
MBLX.US (8.75) a long term speculative, will continue to buy if it drops (continuing to buy)
NZX.NZ (1.74) decent dividend, also growth in any potential govt asset sales etc (currently +43.02percent, ave 1.71 price paid)
NZO.NZ (.85) almost bought before Pike River disaster, lucky I didn't (+9.09percent)
SLV JUL 30 PUTS (.21) (+140percent - already sold a quarter at 400percent+)
Hope you've learnt something from this Menelaus.
polybot, it looks like I touched a nerve. The only lesson here is that you are complete clown. My short Apple play was posted long ago on these forums, your "fairytale" silly games are exactly that...games, or at best the plays you post are after the fact, yet you call me the aftertimer. Get your eyes away from being blinded by all that iglitz and you may just be able to see that you've been the beneficiary of Bernanke's monetary madness and nothing more. Trying to explain it in any other terms and take credit for stock/market analysis makes you look like a fool.
Silly old Melanie, only subject she has any knowledge on is the cheesurger.
Melly -
I have never claimed I was a big time, or pro punter, so I don't see why you are gloating. However, that doesn't make everything I say invalid. By this logic, everything you say is also invalid, because there are thousands of people who have a bigger bank than you.
If your sole purpose in life is to come onto this forum to gloat about having more money than other people, then no wonder you have made so many enemies. Half of the forum you accuse of being amateurs (such as me, MrBen) and the other half, you claim are fantasists (such as polybot, JW, and Winston). All the while, you NEVER post any of your own trades, instead preferring to just slag off everyone else's without ever offering any alternatives or advice. It is really quite strange, and sad in my opinion.
Thanks for the advice on LNKD/Brokers poly, I will take a rain check on it for a while I think.
I have never claimed I was a big time, or pro punter, so I don't see why you are gloating. However, that doesn't make everything I say invalid. By this logic, everything you say is also invalid, because there are thousands of people who have a bigger bank than you.
If your sole purpose in life is to come onto this forum to gloat about having more money than other people, then no wonder you have made so many enemies. Half of the forum you accuse of being amateurs (such as me, MrBen) and the other half, you claim are fantasists (such as polybot, JW, and Winston). All the while, you NEVER post any of your own trades, instead preferring to just slag off everyone else's without ever offering any alternatives or advice. It is really quite strange, and sad in my opinion.
Thanks for the advice on LNKD/Brokers poly, I will take a rain check on it for a while I think.
Poly, ive looked at a lot of these sites, and so far all them say they don't accept UK residents/citizens.
Whippet -
One of the best posts you've ever written.
Your points are well taken, I fully agree the value one brings to the forum should be judged by the quality of the input, not one's size of wallet. After all, as you stated, I would take a guess even the "big" players on here are small fish in the overall scheme of things.
You do post some interesting stuff one here, a lot I agree with, some I don't, but if we all shared the same opinions there wouldn't be a market. I posted this before but I'll say it again, I don't post my trades on here because if I did I would be obligated to post any subsequent changes to my positions otherwise eventually posting the outcome when I close those positions loses all credibility. In my case, since most of my trading in equities now revolve around ETFs, those changes could and usually do occur several times a trading day. As you know, there's a decay factor to consider when trading leveraged ETFs so it's not very often I hang on to positions for longer than a few days. Also some of the positions I take in the markets are simply hedges to larger long or short positions that I have mostly through options, so without spending time to explain their purpose, a reader will undoubtedly misinterpret what my read of the market may be at that point in time. That's why I usually limit my discussions to more macro views on the market that have a tendency not to change on a daily basis.
I apologize for taking shots at you, I admit sometimes totally unwarranted, but I just don't take kindly to posters on here suggesting I'm someone I am not. Which brings us to winston. I still can't believe that intelligent posters on the forum take anything this piece of trash has to say seriously. Buying into his bullsh1t was driven by your disdain for me, not by logic. He's never made a single contribution to this forum and only started visiting and posting his fantasies here when he was convinced I was someone that exposed his fraud on the US Racing forum and he had a score to settle. The chap is a complete psychopath, who was suspended for a couple of years from the forum for posting anti-semitic remarks and asking others to join him in neo-nazi training camps. He now amuses himself in fantasies about being a pro punter, winning an incredible amount of money, who never has a losing day, and living a rich and famous lifestyle. He is a fraud, a fantasist and the most repugnant poster I've ever come across. But make up your own mind.
JW is one of the most knowledgeable posters on here. We don't get along simply because he made a habit of taking shots at my posts and I just got tired of it. Polybot is also very knowledgeable but unfortunately he believes some of his plays in the market that have worked out for him turned out that way because of solid fundamental analysis. Reality of it is that without FED liquidity lifting/underpinning these markets virtually none of those would have worked out. This is where we differ. At any rate, I think I'm going to take a break from posting for a while and just follow in silence. I'll make way fewer enemies that way.
One of the best posts you've ever written.
Your points are well taken, I fully agree the value one brings to the forum should be judged by the quality of the input, not one's size of wallet. After all, as you stated, I would take a guess even the "big" players on here are small fish in the overall scheme of things.
You do post some interesting stuff one here, a lot I agree with, some I don't, but if we all shared the same opinions there wouldn't be a market. I posted this before but I'll say it again, I don't post my trades on here because if I did I would be obligated to post any subsequent changes to my positions otherwise eventually posting the outcome when I close those positions loses all credibility. In my case, since most of my trading in equities now revolve around ETFs, those changes could and usually do occur several times a trading day. As you know, there's a decay factor to consider when trading leveraged ETFs so it's not very often I hang on to positions for longer than a few days. Also some of the positions I take in the markets are simply hedges to larger long or short positions that I have mostly through options, so without spending time to explain their purpose, a reader will undoubtedly misinterpret what my read of the market may be at that point in time. That's why I usually limit my discussions to more macro views on the market that have a tendency not to change on a daily basis.
I apologize for taking shots at you, I admit sometimes totally unwarranted, but I just don't take kindly to posters on here suggesting I'm someone I am not. Which brings us to winston. I still can't believe that intelligent posters on the forum take anything this piece of trash has to say seriously. Buying into his bullsh1t was driven by your disdain for me, not by logic. He's never made a single contribution to this forum and only started visiting and posting his fantasies here when he was convinced I was someone that exposed his fraud on the US Racing forum and he had a score to settle. The chap is a complete psychopath, who was suspended for a couple of years from the forum for posting anti-semitic remarks and asking others to join him in neo-nazi training camps. He now amuses himself in fantasies about being a pro punter, winning an incredible amount of money, who never has a losing day, and living a rich and famous lifestyle. He is a fraud, a fantasist and the most repugnant poster I've ever come across. But make up your own mind.
JW is one of the most knowledgeable posters on here. We don't get along simply because he made a habit of taking shots at my posts and I just got tired of it. Polybot is also very knowledgeable but unfortunately he believes some of his plays in the market that have worked out for him turned out that way because of solid fundamental analysis. Reality of it is that without FED liquidity lifting/underpinning these markets virtually none of those would have worked out. This is where we differ. At any rate, I think I'm going to take a break from posting for a while and just follow in silence. I'll make way fewer enemies that way.
careful melly, this is almost becoming a love-in. Are you feeling ok? You make some good points. I think a few of us should take a step back, and keep it more friendly.
Back to this thread. I now have an options account. Haven't used it yet, whilst I figure out what I'm doing with it.
There's another company I think may be worth adding to the list - Netflix. This essentially seems like a piece of crap to me, and an expensive one at that. PE of 75. With QE2 about to come to an end, this could be an excellent time to short.
I'm thinking that Jan13 puts might be a good shout for trading this? thoughts?
You make some good points. I think a few of us should take a step back, and keep it more friendly.Back to this thread. I now have an options account. Haven't used it yet, whilst I figure out what I'm doing with it.
There's another company I think may be worth adding to the list - Netflix. This essentially seems like a piece of crap to me, and an expensive one at that. PE of 75. With QE2 about to come to an end, this could be an excellent time to short. I'm thinking that Jan13 puts might be a good shout for trading this? thoughts?
Pierre, I set mine up a few years back as an NZ resident so it may be different from the UK, there's a few forms (tax status etc) but not too bad, email/message them directly and ask.
Whippet, NFLX may be overpriced but it has a very high institutional ownership, potential for partnering with facebook, possible buyout (Mkt Cap 14B), very well run company and one of the best CEOs around. Also it's a young growth company so that PE can drop fairly quickly if they have a great quarter, and it's a US only service.
People have been saying it's a short since it was well below $100, one day they'll be right but knowing when exactly is the problem. One possibility is Apple hinting a similar service as part of it's Cloud announcement which could cause ripples but that's just speculation.
With options you really need the timing right, and the change in price needs to be significant, get it wrong and you'll lose a lot.
Whippet, NFLX may be overpriced but it has a very high institutional ownership, potential for partnering with facebook, possible buyout (Mkt Cap 14B), very well run company and one of the best CEOs around. Also it's a young growth company so that PE can drop fairly quickly if they have a great quarter, and it's a US only service.
People have been saying it's a short since it was well below $100, one day they'll be right but knowing when exactly is the problem. One possibility is Apple hinting a similar service as part of it's Cloud announcement which could cause ripples but that's just speculation.
With options you really need the timing right, and the change in price needs to be significant, get it wrong and you'll lose a lot.
Whippet, my opinion is that this is a good time to short NFLX. This is not intended to be a shot at polybot's post but again he views and analyzes stocks/market like one would pre-2007. It's not pre-2007, we're a fair bit down the road from that with unprecedented actions taken by central banks. The predominant factor driving the markets today usually doesn't even get an honorable mention in polybot's posts....FED liquidity. All the analysis polybot provides is true but none of it matters if the FED decides to prop or deflate the market tomorrow by announcing a continuation of a loose monetary policy or conversely tightening.
My read of the FED options right now is that they will not continue with QE, at least not without taking a break first. Inflation head winds will not allow that and we have an election year coming up in the US, despite organized commodities smack-downs by the FED. This is not equities friendly. I think the banks have been capitalized enough to step in and prevent the market from crashing but not enough to prevent a healthy correction. That's a lot of liquidity the FED is about to remove.
Combine this with other macro economic news (Japan is a basket case, euroland sovereign solvency issues won't go away anytime soon, China bubble possibly bursting) and the global economic situation doesn't look very bullish. Also, from a technical standpoint, the NASDAQ chart at the moment is looking very bearish and rolling over, so in my opinion the whole tech sector (AAPL included) is about to feel the impact of that. But that's only my opinion and I've often been wrong before. Good luck with whatever you decide to do.
My read of the FED options right now is that they will not continue with QE, at least not without taking a break first. Inflation head winds will not allow that and we have an election year coming up in the US, despite organized commodities smack-downs by the FED. This is not equities friendly. I think the banks have been capitalized enough to step in and prevent the market from crashing but not enough to prevent a healthy correction. That's a lot of liquidity the FED is about to remove.
Combine this with other macro economic news (Japan is a basket case, euroland sovereign solvency issues won't go away anytime soon, China bubble possibly bursting) and the global economic situation doesn't look very bullish. Also, from a technical standpoint, the NASDAQ chart at the moment is looking very bearish and rolling over, so in my opinion the whole tech sector (AAPL included) is about to feel the impact of that. But that's only my opinion and I've often been wrong before. Good luck with whatever you decide to do.
Menelaus Joined: 03 Feb 05
Replies: 654 27 May 11 11:20
Whippet, my opinion is that this is a good time to short NFLX.
Replies: 654 27 May 11 11:20
Whippet, my opinion is that this is a good time to short NFLX.
Menelaus Joined: 03 Feb 05
Replies: 658 27 May 11 11:20
Whippet, my opinion is that this is a good time to short NFLX.
......Also, from a technical standpoint, the NASDAQ chart at the moment is looking very bearish and rolling over, so in my opinion the whole tech sector (AAPL included) is about to feel the impact of that. But that's only my opinion and I've often been wrong before. Good luck with whatever you decide to do.
NASDAQ down about 150 points (5pc+) since I posted that. Who says I don't take positions on here?
Have a nice weekend everyone.
Replies: 658 27 May 11 11:20
Whippet, my opinion is that this is a good time to short NFLX.
......Also, from a technical standpoint, the NASDAQ chart at the moment is looking very bearish and rolling over, so in my opinion the whole tech sector (AAPL included) is about to feel the impact of that. But that's only my opinion and I've often been wrong before. Good luck with whatever you decide to do.
NASDAQ down about 150 points (5pc+) since I posted that. Who says I don't take positions on here?
Have a nice weekend everyone.
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