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Tech Bubble Mk II - Greatest shorting opportunity of all time
Tech Bubble Mk II - Greatest shorting opportunity of all time
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Poly, ive looked at a lot of these sites, and so far all them say they don't accept UK residents/citizens.
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Whippet -
One of the best posts you've ever written. Your points are well taken, I fully agree the value one brings to the forum should be judged by the quality of the input, not one's size of wallet. After all, as you stated, I would take a guess even the "big" players on here are small fish in the overall scheme of things. You do post some interesting stuff one here, a lot I agree with, some I don't, but if we all shared the same opinions there wouldn't be a market. I posted this before but I'll say it again, I don't post my trades on here because if I did I would be obligated to post any subsequent changes to my positions otherwise eventually posting the outcome when I close those positions loses all credibility. In my case, since most of my trading in equities now revolve around ETFs, those changes could and usually do occur several times a trading day. As you know, there's a decay factor to consider when trading leveraged ETFs so it's not very often I hang on to positions for longer than a few days. Also some of the positions I take in the markets are simply hedges to larger long or short positions that I have mostly through options, so without spending time to explain their purpose, a reader will undoubtedly misinterpret what my read of the market may be at that point in time. That's why I usually limit my discussions to more macro views on the market that have a tendency not to change on a daily basis. I apologize for taking shots at you, I admit sometimes totally unwarranted, but I just don't take kindly to posters on here suggesting I'm someone I am not. Which brings us to winston. I still can't believe that intelligent posters on the forum take anything this piece of trash has to say seriously. Buying into his bullsh1t was driven by your disdain for me, not by logic. He's never made a single contribution to this forum and only started visiting and posting his fantasies here when he was convinced I was someone that exposed his fraud on the US Racing forum and he had a score to settle. The chap is a complete psychopath, who was suspended for a couple of years from the forum for posting anti-semitic remarks and asking others to join him in neo-nazi training camps. He now amuses himself in fantasies about being a pro punter, winning an incredible amount of money, who never has a losing day, and living a rich and famous lifestyle. He is a fraud, a fantasist and the most repugnant poster I've ever come across. But make up your own mind. JW is one of the most knowledgeable posters on here. We don't get along simply because he made a habit of taking shots at my posts and I just got tired of it. Polybot is also very knowledgeable but unfortunately he believes some of his plays in the market that have worked out for him turned out that way because of solid fundamental analysis. Reality of it is that without FED liquidity lifting/underpinning these markets virtually none of those would have worked out. This is where we differ. At any rate, I think I'm going to take a break from posting for a while and just follow in silence. I'll make way fewer enemies that way.  |
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careful melly, this is almost becoming a love-in. Are you feeling ok?
 You make some good points. I think a few of us should take a step back, and keep it more friendly.Back to this thread. I now have an options account. Haven't used it yet, whilst I figure out what I'm doing with it.  There's another company I think may be worth adding to the list - Netflix. This essentially seems like a piece of crap to me, and an expensive one at that. PE of 75. With QE2 about to come to an end, this could be an excellent time to short. I'm thinking that Jan13 puts might be a good shout for trading this? thoughts? |
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Pierre, I set mine up a few years back as an NZ resident so it may be different from the UK, there's a few forms (tax status etc) but not too bad, email/message them directly and ask.
Whippet, NFLX may be overpriced but it has a very high institutional ownership, potential for partnering with facebook, possible buyout (Mkt Cap 14B), very well run company and one of the best CEOs around. Also it's a young growth company so that PE can drop fairly quickly if they have a great quarter, and it's a US only service. People have been saying it's a short since it was well below $100, one day they'll be right but knowing when exactly is the problem. One possibility is Apple hinting a similar service as part of it's Cloud announcement which could cause ripples but that's just speculation. With options you really need the timing right, and the change in price needs to be significant, get it wrong and you'll lose a lot. |
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Whippet, my opinion is that this is a good time to short NFLX. This is not intended to be a shot at polybot's post but again he views and analyzes stocks/market like one would pre-2007. It's not pre-2007, we're a fair bit down the road from that with unprecedented actions taken by central banks. The predominant factor driving the markets today usually doesn't even get an honorable mention in polybot's posts....FED liquidity. All the analysis polybot provides is true but none of it matters if the FED decides to prop or deflate the market tomorrow by announcing a continuation of a loose monetary policy or conversely tightening.
My read of the FED options right now is that they will not continue with QE, at least not without taking a break first. Inflation head winds will not allow that and we have an election year coming up in the US, despite organized commodities smack-downs by the FED. This is not equities friendly. I think the banks have been capitalized enough to step in and prevent the market from crashing but not enough to prevent a healthy correction. That's a lot of liquidity the FED is about to remove. Combine this with other macro economic news (Japan is a basket case, euroland sovereign solvency issues won't go away anytime soon, China bubble possibly bursting) and the global economic situation doesn't look very bullish. Also, from a technical standpoint, the NASDAQ chart at the moment is looking very bearish and rolling over, so in my opinion the whole tech sector (AAPL included) is about to feel the impact of that. But that's only my opinion and I've often been wrong before. Good luck with whatever you decide to do. |
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Menelaus Joined: 03 Feb 05
Replies: 654 27 May 11 11:20 Whippet, my opinion is that this is a good time to short NFLX.  |
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Menelaus Joined: 03 Feb 05
Replies: 658 27 May 11 11:20 Whippet, my opinion is that this is a good time to short NFLX. ......Also, from a technical standpoint, the NASDAQ chart at the moment is looking very bearish and rolling over, so in my opinion the whole tech sector (AAPL included) is about to feel the impact of that. But that's only my opinion and I've often been wrong before. Good luck with whatever you decide to do. NASDAQ down about 150 points (5pc+) since I posted that. Who says I don't take positions on here? Have a nice weekend everyone.  |
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those f*ckers down at groupon (and the multitude of banks they are touting it around) better get their ass in gear with that IPO. Must...list...before...liquidity...pulled...
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