Tradefair & Financials
Welcome to Live View – Take the tour to learn more
Start Tour
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
23 Apr 11
02:00
Joined:
Date Joined:
28 Jun 10
Are they rising on fundamentals, are we in flight to safety mode at this stage or is it a bubble about to pop in your view?
My personal view is that if we are in a bubble we are still in the early stages. I think we are still some way off hearing shoe shine boys espousing the virtues of PM's.
Anybody else with any views?
I'll go with a prediction that gold will be at $1600 an ounce and silver at $52 dollars by year end. Still some way to go but not quite parabolic.
My personal view is that if we are in a bubble we are still in the early stages. I think we are still some way off hearing shoe shine boys espousing the virtues of PM's.
Anybody else with any views?
I'll go with a prediction that gold will be at $1600 an ounce and silver at $52 dollars by year end. Still some way to go but not quite parabolic.
Show More
it has all the hallmarks of a property/dotcom/commodity bubble peaking, where silver is like the subprime to golds A-minus. the hype is similar eg "limited resource, they're not making anymore" (700million ounces of silver per year is mined) "it can only go up" (look at the 40 year chart), etc etc
currently silver is partly fueled by a mix of panic buying, leveraged speculation, restricted selling
it could keep going and stabilize or possibly, like property, catalysts will (deliberately or not) bring it down.
personally I wouldn't invest anything significant either way, it's just not transparent enough, only position is July puts.
currently silver is partly fueled by a mix of panic buying, leveraged speculation, restricted selling
it could keep going and stabilize or possibly, like property, catalysts will (deliberately or not) bring it down.
personally I wouldn't invest anything significant either way, it's just not transparent enough, only position is July puts.
polubot, are you really that clueless? $USD, that is all you need to know when talking about PM's but I don't think you understand that.Silver is going up because it has been artificially suppressed for years. Gold is going up because it can not be reproduced by a central bank printing press. Funny, you should speak of hype, the only hype out there right now is your AAPL long positions.
For those holding physical, put it in a closet and forget about it. For those trading paper, take some short positions now (just as benny decides to abandon being short for 4 months and is now long). The FED will take a breather from printing money. High gasoline and food prices don't get politicians re-elected and the FED will give them cover by toning down the money printing. Commodities and PM's will go down as a result.....until the next inevitable "we need to save the economy" money printing orgy. That's not to say anything about Greece defaulting, the euro weakening, the USD strengthening and therefore PM's heading lower. TRADE ON IT.
For those holding physical, put it in a closet and forget about it. For those trading paper, take some short positions now (just as benny decides to abandon being short for 4 months and is now long). The FED will take a breather from printing money. High gasoline and food prices don't get politicians re-elected and the FED will give them cover by toning down the money printing. Commodities and PM's will go down as a result.....until the next inevitable "we need to save the economy" money printing orgy. That's not to say anything about Greece defaulting, the euro weakening, the USD strengthening and therefore PM's heading lower. TRADE ON IT.
it s weird silver and gold are rising at faster rate now than any other period in the last 3 yrs, right at the time the fed shud start to contemplate withdrawing the excess cash ( 2-3 months away ? ).
could this be the final tailspin of a bubble, normally charaterized by exponential price surges?
are people panicking or there s more? are we expecting qe3 to be unveiled soon?
i dont like the fed these days as they re likely to keep rates at record low for at least another 15 months, so probably buying of metals will continue thruout the year. 1600 and 50/55 will be hit, but unelss we go there very soon, they could be the top for few yrs afterwards. i would imagine when the fed starts their tightening process in h2 12, the metals would start to drop about 20%.
could this be the final tailspin of a bubble, normally charaterized by exponential price surges?
are people panicking or there s more? are we expecting qe3 to be unveiled soon?
i dont like the fed these days as they re likely to keep rates at record low for at least another 15 months, so probably buying of metals will continue thruout the year. 1600 and 50/55 will be hit, but unelss we go there very soon, they could be the top for few yrs afterwards. i would imagine when the fed starts their tightening process in h2 12, the metals would start to drop about 20%.
anyway, it s easter time so yday we were reminded of how much 30 coins of silver ( 15 oz roughly ) were buying 2000 yrs ago ( a substantial bribe, later used to buy a field in jerusalem ).
we can interpret it 2 way. either silver has to recover the purchasing power it lost ( and trade more at level of gold ), or it s not such a great mean to preserve wealth.
happy easter!
we can interpret it 2 way. either silver has to recover the purchasing power it lost ( and trade more at level of gold ), or it s not such a great mean to preserve wealth.
happy easter!
How can it be a bubble if no one is buying it?
During the dotcom bubble, even my gran, who only ever invests in things like marks and spencers, was trying to buy them.
Even gold, which has been going up for a decade, still isn't in a bubble. How many people do you know that own gold? Once I hear commoners saying they have just bought 10 krugerrands, then it might be, but that hasn't happened yet.
Why are you worried anyway EO. You told me you were long silver from $5.
During the dotcom bubble, even my gran, who only ever invests in things like marks and spencers, was trying to buy them.
Even gold, which has been going up for a decade, still isn't in a bubble. How many people do you know that own gold? Once I hear commoners saying they have just bought 10 krugerrands, then it might be, but that hasn't happened yet.
Why are you worried anyway EO. You told me you were long silver from $5.
Whippet
I wish that were me. My profits are more modest than that I'm afraid. My shoe shine boy quote accords with your view and I'm thinking about whether it is possible in our world of 24 hours news information and vast widespread wealth for bubbles to form without at some point getting the average Joe on board in the latter stages.
I wish that were me.
My profits are more modest than that I'm afraid. My shoe shine boy quote accords with your view and I'm thinking about whether it is possible in our world of 24 hours news information and vast widespread wealth for bubbles to form without at some point getting the average Joe on board in the latter stages.
i predict what goes up must come down and what goes down must come up there you have it
I just hit the super in the last at Hollywood so screw you gold
guys time to chuck down a few drinks
this is your financial assignment for tonight
$6,983.90 X 5 = ?????????
GN
this is your financial assignment for tonight
$6,983.90 X 5 = ?????????
GN
Silver will crash and burn when all the mugs buying it decide they will cash in.
burst bubble.
burst bubble.
If you had ever got a tip right in your life I might be a little concerned.
Try getting physical silver without a huge premium MT.
Try getting physical silver without a huge premium MT.
Money Tree
That is the point. How many people do you know who have bought gold and silver as a hedge? I don't know anybody. When friends and family begin buying a few silver dollars or a couple of sovereigns here and there then I will feel we are definitely in bubble territory.
That is the point. How many people do you know who have bought gold and silver as a hedge? I don't know anybody. When friends and family begin buying a few silver dollars or a couple of sovereigns here and there then I will feel we are definitely in bubble territory.
Those trading gold beware. Take short positions before the FED announcement and close them by the end of the week. Profit from a quick scalp. Those owning physical, either buy the dip, or just put your bullion in a safe place and don't worry about it.
As long as gold is priced in USD (or GBP for that matter) it will keep going up over the medium term. Over the long term I believe gold and silver will continue to rise in price exponentially before both currencies ultimately collapse.
Of course there will be some corrections (or buying opportunities as I prefer to call them) along the way.
There is a relatively small amount of physical gold and silver available compared with the total value of currency in circulation. As central banks print more money, and as people realise how quickly paper money is losing value it will only take a small shift away from currency to send the price of gold in particular sky high.
I would expect gold to be around $1,700-$1,800 by the end of the year and silver to be up to around $55-$60. That's pretty conservative if you ask me.
Accordingly, oil will be up to the $140 mark by which time we'll be thinking £1.45 diesel was quite cheap.
Of course there will be some corrections (or buying opportunities as I prefer to call them) along the way.
There is a relatively small amount of physical gold and silver available compared with the total value of currency in circulation. As central banks print more money, and as people realise how quickly paper money is losing value it will only take a small shift away from currency to send the price of gold in particular sky high.
I would expect gold to be around $1,700-$1,800 by the end of the year and silver to be up to around $55-$60. That's pretty conservative if you ask me.
Accordingly, oil will be up to the $140 mark by which time we'll be thinking £1.45 diesel was quite cheap.
Bought 4,000 GLL at a strike price of $24.048 at the NYSE open.
There's no one more bullish than gold than me on this forum, I'd be recommending gold since the $580 level on here BUT THAT DOESN'T MEAN I CAN'T TRADE AGAINST PAPER GOLD THIS WEEK. I'm betting that the FED will announce that QE2 will end as planned in June, and then they will convert maturing MBSs into USTs on the balance sheet. That's about $17 billion of monetization per month versus the current $100 billion. Gold markets won't like that.
I'm on record now, let's see how it plays out.
There's no one more bullish than gold than me on this forum, I'd be recommending gold since the $580 level on here BUT THAT DOESN'T MEAN I CAN'T TRADE AGAINST PAPER GOLD THIS WEEK. I'm betting that the FED will announce that QE2 will end as planned in June, and then they will convert maturing MBSs into USTs on the balance sheet. That's about $17 billion of monetization per month versus the current $100 billion. Gold markets won't like that.
I'm on record now, let's see how it plays out.
Stop telling lies Melanie , on your Mcdonlds wages you couldn't afford to buy 4000 penny chews let along some gold.
I bought Silver when it was 14 and cashed it in when it hit 28 (too early obviously). Put almost all my savings into gold when it was $800 and have been holding it ever since. I did consider selling at various stages but never did. I am really holding it as a long term store of wealth and to preserve my purchasing power of things I need (like energy and food). So I do not care much about short term price fluctuations. Apart from the CGT implications of selling a lot in one go, I just don't know what I would buy with the proceeds which would provide a similar level of security. So I am hanging on to it.
If the dollar continues to head south then the price in dollar terms should easily breach $1600 by year end. Silver does seem to have gone a bit mad and I would not be surprised to see that tumble back to the $30 mark.
If the dollar continues to head south then the price in dollar terms should easily breach $1600 by year end. Silver does seem to have gone a bit mad and I would not be surprised to see that tumble back to the $30 mark.
wykhamist
Hope I'm not seeking to teach my granny to suck eggs with this one but if your gold is in sovs there are no capital gains tax implications as far as I'm aware.
Hope I'm not seeking to teach my granny to suck eggs with this one but if your gold is in sovs there are no capital gains tax implications as far as I'm aware.
I think you are right that sovereigns do not attract CGT. However mine is a mixture of bullion stored at bullionvault.com and some PHAU ETF paper.For sure the ETF is taxable; pretty sure the bullion is too. What I can do each year is use up my own and wife's allowance.
But on the downside what you can't do is get your hands on your gold when the balloon goes up.
I know a few people buying it as a back up, load of lads in pub talking about it so prob a bit more of an increase then some bad news and panic selling.
I know a few people buying it as a back up, load of lads in pub talking about it so prob a bit more of an increase then some bad news and panic selling.
the gold 'bubble' has been going on for 10 years now so its not exactly news!!
Melanie are you that stupid ?? obviously yes ! Bubble is something that comes in them Mcdonalds diet cokes you serve .
will keep on an upward surge, ontill North Africa and the middle east is under full control of the bank, how long is a pice of string.
Closed the position at $24.18 in basically what worked out to be a neutral trade. The FED statement a lot more dovish than I expected. Yes, "inflation is transitory" much the same way our entire life is transitory. The FED gave no hints of serious tightening......because THEY CAN'T.
Stop telling lies Melanie
Only postion thats you've closed today is on the Mc flurry machine .
what a loser
Only postion thats you've closed today is on the Mc flurry machine .
what a loser
Post Your Reply
Please login to post a reply.
Wonder
Instance ID: 13539