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In the interests of fairness I wish to respectfully suggest that ALL forum members begin to search for the mystical beast-
hyperinflation.[:x][smiley:crazy][:p][:x]
[;)]
Any sightings should be confirmed by a second person if possible, or photo.
If you are a regular poster I guess we could take your word for it that you spotted some.
Unfortunatly u-tube videos will not be accepted as evidence.
Come on guys, do your best to spot some hyperinflation and report it here to pep up the doomsayers.
They have not had much to smile about for a few years and most of them are probably down to their last few zacs.
Also if you are near a coastal area in your search, put an hour or two in checking the horizon for a financial tsumami. Some forum members swear blind its out there.
Lets get together now and do it for the losers!!!!
Thanks in advance for your co-operation.[:p]
Benny.
hyperinflation.[:x][smiley:crazy][:p][:x]
[;)]Any sightings should be confirmed by a second person if possible, or photo.
If you are a regular poster I guess we could take your word for it that you spotted some.
Unfortunatly u-tube videos will not be accepted as evidence.
Come on guys, do your best to spot some hyperinflation and report it here to pep up the doomsayers.
They have not had much to smile about for a few years and most of them are probably down to their last few zacs.
Also if you are near a coastal area in your search, put an hour or two in checking the horizon for a financial tsumami. Some forum members swear blind its out there.
Lets get together now and do it for the losers!!!!
Thanks in advance for your co-operation.[:p]
Benny.
Show More
You have lost the plot. But in all fairness to you, if I traded your prediction "Gold down, silver down, USD up- thats the way to bet from here.", I would too.
4/4 care to go for the lot dipstick?
like leading a puppy around.
hey melly- better call in some of your alter ego's for help.your not doing too well on your own
clueless dropkick.
Mr Ben...look around. What do you see? You see gold going to record highs, you see the world bank saying food is up 36% around the world, commodity price of soybeans up 50%, commodity price of corn doubled, orange juice doubled, wheat doubled, why Mountsin House (a supplier of emergency food) has a message on their website about shortages (http://www.mountainhouse.com/)!
And that is just inflation. We're not even close to hyperinflation with the above. Hyperinflation is when people lose faith in the currency and don't want to hold it. You're right though, there's no proof of that whatsoever unless you open your eyes.
> China and Russia dealing in their own currencies rather than US Dollars
> China buying gold and other commodities by the ton
> China encouraging their citizens to buy precious metals
> Middle Eastern countries calling for a gold backed regional currency
> American states introducing bills to allow them to mint their own gold and silver coins
> THE FEDERAL RESERVE PRINTING MONEY TO BUY 70% OF ALL US TREASURIES AND BONDS - WHY? OTHER CENTRAL BANKS HAVE STOPPED BUYING COMPLETELY - THE GAME IS NEARLY OVER
> The fed propping the stock market up so people like you can boast about the 'bull market'
> The Euro is failing and PIIGS are being bailed out (Spain next), you cannot keep printing money to pay debt.
And that is just inflation. We're not even close to hyperinflation with the above. Hyperinflation is when people lose faith in the currency and don't want to hold it. You're right though, there's no proof of that whatsoever unless you open your eyes.
> China and Russia dealing in their own currencies rather than US Dollars
> China buying gold and other commodities by the ton
> China encouraging their citizens to buy precious metals
> Middle Eastern countries calling for a gold backed regional currency
> American states introducing bills to allow them to mint their own gold and silver coins
> THE FEDERAL RESERVE PRINTING MONEY TO BUY 70% OF ALL US TREASURIES AND BONDS - WHY? OTHER CENTRAL BANKS HAVE STOPPED BUYING COMPLETELY - THE GAME IS NEARLY OVER
> The fed propping the stock market up so people like you can boast about the 'bull market'
> The Euro is failing and PIIGS are being bailed out (Spain next), you cannot keep printing money to pay debt.
blah blah blah J2.Have you heard of the term" flogging a dead horse"?
you must be happy with you gold this week? Good move.
Spent the day with an old trader friend of mine yesterday at bondi beach.It was raining cats and dogs all day by the way. He talked me out of shorting gold. I've been wanting to short ot for a while but he convinced me to leave it alone.
His reason mainly was nothing to do with inflation.He said he has it from some chinese friends of his than the chinese will continue to convert their USD to gold, silver, copper, aluminium and tin.
They are also pursuing the euro and the AUD.Their CEO's in china have been instructed { by the govt presumably} to convert any USD payments received to " something they can use in production"
Being in OZ we are more tuned into what the chinese are doing.So in the end your gold silver move is going to pay off it seems.He thinks gold will lag the other because of its limited industrial use. He favours the others, in particular aluminium and tin.
His caveat is however the bernake statement on April 28. Must wait and see which direction he is heading.
For interest he has gold going to 2000, silver to 62 , the AUD to over 1.10 and the euro to 1.60
IF things stay as they are today in trend terms.
I asked him " what about infrasshion?" His answer- what about it?
Take from that what you will.
you must be happy with you gold this week? Good move.
Spent the day with an old trader friend of mine yesterday at bondi beach.It was raining cats and dogs all day by the way. He talked me out of shorting gold. I've been wanting to short ot for a while but he convinced me to leave it alone.
His reason mainly was nothing to do with inflation.He said he has it from some chinese friends of his than the chinese will continue to convert their USD to gold, silver, copper, aluminium and tin.
They are also pursuing the euro and the AUD.Their CEO's in china have been instructed { by the govt presumably} to convert any USD payments received to " something they can use in production"
Being in OZ we are more tuned into what the chinese are doing.So in the end your gold silver move is going to pay off it seems.He thinks gold will lag the other because of its limited industrial use. He favours the others, in particular aluminium and tin.
His caveat is however the bernake statement on April 28. Must wait and see which direction he is heading.
For interest he has gold going to 2000, silver to 62 , the AUD to over 1.10 and the euro to 1.60
IF things stay as they are today in trend terms.
I asked him " what about infrasshion?" His answer- what about it?
Take from that what you will.
Thank you for that post, interesting stuff. I have mentioned the China factor several times on here. They are buying gold on every pullback.
The University of Texas has bought $1b in gold bars recently.
What will your opinion be if Bernanke announces QE3 or an extended QE2?
I don't see how he has any choice. Foreign central banks aren't buying US treasuries and private funds aren't either. The largest private holder (until recently) of us treasuries now doesn't own any. I can't remember the fund name but i'll look it up if you want a reference. The US now can't survive without printing money.
The University of Texas has bought $1b in gold bars recently.
What will your opinion be if Bernanke announces QE3 or an extended QE2?
I don't see how he has any choice. Foreign central banks aren't buying US treasuries and private funds aren't either. The largest private holder (until recently) of us treasuries now doesn't own any. I can't remember the fund name but i'll look it up if you want a reference. The US now can't survive without printing money.
J2BLUE, nobody wins arguing with a fool. Let him be in his ignorance.
Hi J2, well I somehow doubt there will be QE3. However I see geithner is confident that the congress WILL lift the debt ceiling. Is that a de-facto QE3?
If there were a QE3 on the same terms as QE2 then things would keep going in the direction they are now.
If not and bernake hints at raising rates, things could reverse just as easily.
I'll put this one to you- if QE 1+2 was say one trillion and wealth destruction was one trillion. Whats the result?
Blot.I'm somewhat suspicious that this is the case in US.House prices are still falling,company profits are high but are being retained and not spent.Where is the restoration of wealth? Hence you could strongly argue that QE1/2 has had only a stabilizing effect.Sure the USD has fallen but that is due in at least part to the expectation of a money flood. If the tap were turned off would the USD rise?
Thats why april 28 is a game changer day. QE3 and the consequences.No QE3 and hints at interest rate rises.Different game.
Thats why in the trading game you have to be open to all the options.
As a bye the bye- opec says it thinks 90$ is a good oil price.Then it cuts production- guaranteeing a HIGHER price.Always be careful at taking statements at face value.
If there were a QE3 on the same terms as QE2 then things would keep going in the direction they are now.
If not and bernake hints at raising rates, things could reverse just as easily.
I'll put this one to you- if QE 1+2 was say one trillion and wealth destruction was one trillion. Whats the result?
Blot.I'm somewhat suspicious that this is the case in US.House prices are still falling,company profits are high but are being retained and not spent.Where is the restoration of wealth? Hence you could strongly argue that QE1/2 has had only a stabilizing effect.Sure the USD has fallen but that is due in at least part to the expectation of a money flood. If the tap were turned off would the USD rise?
Thats why april 28 is a game changer day. QE3 and the consequences.No QE3 and hints at interest rate rises.Different game.
Thats why in the trading game you have to be open to all the options.
As a bye the bye- opec says it thinks 90$ is a good oil price.Then it cuts production- guaranteeing a HIGHER price.Always be careful at taking statements at face value.
For those who don't want to bother reading benny's long post, allow me to summarize: I HAVEN'T A CLUE but to make it sound like I know what I'm talking about I'LL STATE THE OBVIOUS
No benny, lifting the debt ceiling is not de-facto QE3 if the USG can find a way of finding itself without the FED monetizing. In other words, borrowing their budget deficit from the open market. Who's going to lend the USG $1.6 trillion on top of rolling over another $2 trillion in bills and bonds coming due in the next 12 months. The Chinese? Look what they've done the last twelve months for your clues. The Japanese? Look at the impact to their economy as a result of the tsunami/fukushima disaster. The UK? Let's not even go there. Who?
The FED needs to continue to monetize because once you go down this road THERE IS NO RETURN. They have purchased 70pc of UST issuance since the start of QE2 because they had to. No other buyers out there to cover this level of obscene borrowing.
Rising......drum roll please.....INFLATION is making it difficult for the FED to hide the insanity of their ZIRP/QE policy (higher OIL prices, higher commodity prices drive higher price inflation). Not to mention that the PM's rise has been unstoppable, further exposing the farce fiat money really is, not exactly something the FED wants to see. Announcing QE3 as QE2 winds down without a major deflationary event is a non-starter for the FED. American's don't vote for the politicians in power when petrol is at $4.00 a gallon......and 2012 is an election year.
On the other hand, without the FED being almost the entire market for USTs like they have been, interest rates go up and EVERYONE BLOWS UP (I posted about this before - start reading my posts instead of making an ass of yourself and you might learn something).
The FED has painted themselves in a corner. Print they must and print they will. In order to contain that inflation/Oil/PMs thing however they may announce not QE3 but rather a continuation of QE2 (which they can, read the QE2 announcement) at a reduced level of monetizing. This way they would hope to avoid a major fall in the equities markets with all that liquidity removed, as well as keeping rates in check.
Where's the rest of the money the USG needs going to come from you say? The same place it came from when the FED was injecting massive liquidity into the system in the fall of 2008. Caribbean banks. Still confused? The FED will monetize surreptitiously.
Already too long a post, so I'll stop at that. Your post also includes a lot of other laughable statements like "you could argue QE1/2 has had only a stabilizing effect" but I want get into it with you. You sound very confused. I don't think you understand the big difference between QE1 and QE2. (HINT: QE1 was not inflationary, QE2 is.) Also, your oil/opec comment also tells me you are getting your news from mainstream media outlets, accepting it at face value without applying any critical thinking. Start doing some research on peak oil and then I can guarantee you when you see yet another OPEC announcement in your local newspaper you'll flip the page without reading it. (HINT: the spouts are running at full tilt, there are no increases or cuts in production)
I understand that you are a day trader so the macro picture is a little fuzzy for you. But day trading without a solid understanding of macro drivers and without technical analysis (you already posted you don't use charts) is akin to flying a airplane without instruments. Sooner or later you crash.
No benny, lifting the debt ceiling is not de-facto QE3 if the USG can find a way of finding itself without the FED monetizing. In other words, borrowing their budget deficit from the open market. Who's going to lend the USG $1.6 trillion on top of rolling over another $2 trillion in bills and bonds coming due in the next 12 months. The Chinese? Look what they've done the last twelve months for your clues. The Japanese? Look at the impact to their economy as a result of the tsunami/fukushima disaster. The UK? Let's not even go there. Who?
The FED needs to continue to monetize because once you go down this road THERE IS NO RETURN. They have purchased 70pc of UST issuance since the start of QE2 because they had to. No other buyers out there to cover this level of obscene borrowing.
Rising......drum roll please.....INFLATION is making it difficult for the FED to hide the insanity of their ZIRP/QE policy (higher OIL prices, higher commodity prices drive higher price inflation). Not to mention that the PM's rise has been unstoppable, further exposing the farce fiat money really is, not exactly something the FED wants to see. Announcing QE3 as QE2 winds down without a major deflationary event is a non-starter for the FED. American's don't vote for the politicians in power when petrol is at $4.00 a gallon......and 2012 is an election year.
On the other hand, without the FED being almost the entire market for USTs like they have been, interest rates go up and EVERYONE BLOWS UP (I posted about this before - start reading my posts instead of making an ass of yourself and you might learn something).
The FED has painted themselves in a corner. Print they must and print they will. In order to contain that inflation/Oil/PMs thing however they may announce not QE3 but rather a continuation of QE2 (which they can, read the QE2 announcement) at a reduced level of monetizing. This way they would hope to avoid a major fall in the equities markets with all that liquidity removed, as well as keeping rates in check.
Where's the rest of the money the USG needs going to come from you say? The same place it came from when the FED was injecting massive liquidity into the system in the fall of 2008. Caribbean banks. Still confused? The FED will monetize surreptitiously.
Already too long a post, so I'll stop at that. Your post also includes a lot of other laughable statements like "you could argue QE1/2 has had only a stabilizing effect" but I want get into it with you. You sound very confused. I don't think you understand the big difference between QE1 and QE2. (HINT: QE1 was not inflationary, QE2 is.) Also, your oil/opec comment also tells me you are getting your news from mainstream media outlets, accepting it at face value without applying any critical thinking. Start doing some research on peak oil and then I can guarantee you when you see yet another OPEC announcement in your local newspaper you'll flip the page without reading it. (HINT: the spouts are running at full tilt, there are no increases or cuts in production)
I understand that you are a day trader so the macro picture is a little fuzzy for you. But day trading without a solid understanding of macro drivers and without technical analysis (you already posted you don't use charts) is akin to flying a airplane without instruments. Sooner or later you crash.
Thats almost a conversation rather than bickering. Bravo and great information.
FWIW
Fed to signal end of monetary easing
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/bcad7330-691a-11e0-9040-00144feab49a.html#axzz1JxQ6MHdx
Fed to signal end of monetary easing
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/bcad7330-691a-11e0-9040-00144feab49a.html#axzz1JxQ6MHdx
And one more
Bernanke May Sustain Stimulus to Avoid ‘Cold Turkey’ End to Aid
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-04-19/bernanke-may-reinvest-maturing-debt-to-avoid-cold-turkey-end-to-stimulus.html
Bernanke May Sustain Stimulus to Avoid ‘Cold Turkey’ End to Aid
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-04-19/bernanke-may-reinvest-maturing-debt-to-avoid-cold-turkey-end-to-stimulus.html
Hey J2, I'm on your train now.Went long gold yesterday. Already up almost 20$
go gold go gold.[;)]
Already up almost 20$go gold go gold.[;)]
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