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lifted from CNBC website. Read it and weep into your losses.No wonder your so aggro[:p]
Bears Give Up: Biggest Switch in Sentiment in 7 Years
The number of investors with a bearish outlook plunged by more than a third in one week according to a widely followed investor survey released Wednesday, the largest amount of bears to throw in the towel in this poll since 2003.
The survey ending April 5 came as the indomitable Dow Jones Industrial Average [.DJIA 12426.75 32.85 (+0.26%) ] touched its highest intraday point since the two-year bull market began.
Middle East turmoil, an Irish bailout, fears of a municipal bond crisis, a nuclear disaster in Japan and an impending end to the Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing has failed to keep the market down this year. And the bears are simply done fighting the tape.
Bears collapsed to just 15.7 percent of those surveyed from a 23.1 percent part of the pie just one week ago, according to the weekly survey of financial newsletter writers by research firm Investors Intelligence. That 32 percent drop is the biggest in a single week since a 37 percent switchover in 2003, according to Bespoke Investment Group’s analysis of the II data.
“That action in the face of still ongoing negative news from around the world was certainly impressive and it reinforced the perception that US stocks were still offering value,” wrote Mike Burke and John Gray of Investors Intelligence, in the report. “A week ago we noted the speed of the (equity) move from the March lows didn't allow for much reaction from the advisors. However, another week of markets moving higher was clearly enough for many newsletter editors to make a shift.”
Dow Jones Industria...(.DJIA)
12426.75 32.85 (+0.26%%)
Dow Jones Global Indexes
Note that bullish investors now take up 57 percent of the total pie in this week’s survey, while the other 27 percent fit a category of investors who are expecting a pullback, but are still generally long-term bullish.
This survey is often used as a contrarian indicator, so a jump of this magnitude may give other bulls the chills on concern the long trade has gotten too crowded. After all, if everyone is bullish, who is there left out there to convert into buyers and lift the market higher?
Burke and Gray say this much in their accompanying commentary: “At the end of last August's market lows the bulls were as few as 29.4%, suggesting a time to buy. The latest reading suggests increased danger. At the October 2007 top the bulls were 62.0%.”
History shows that they may be onto something, as the market’s returns tend to slow or turn negative when sentiment reaches such an extreme.
“While the market has averaged modestly positive returns over the next one, three and six months” following 30 percent drops in bearish sentiment, wrote the Bespoke analysts in their report. “the returns have been below the average returns for all one, three and six month periods since 1975.”
In the 15 other occasions since 1975, when the number of bears in this survey collapsed by more than a third, the S&P 500 has averaged a 0.1 percent return one month out, a 0.8 percent return three months out and a 1.9 percent return six months out, according to Bespoke.
“The rise in equity prices today effectively ‘steals’ away part of the forward-looking one, three and six-month returns,” said Alan Zafran, a partner with Luminous Capital. “So the returns are positive, but most of the upside in the stock prices is captured immediately at the time that the sentiment has improved. Bottom line: It’s tough to time the market.”
Bears were warned numerous times in this forum by the winners that contribute here. If only melly and other assorted doomsayers had spent some time embracing the ideas of the winners instead of ridiculing them , they could had participated in the magnificent rises of the past 2 years.
All I can say is
[;)]
______________________________________________________
Bears Give Up: Biggest Switch in Sentiment in 7 Years
The number of investors with a bearish outlook plunged by more than a third in one week according to a widely followed investor survey released Wednesday, the largest amount of bears to throw in the towel in this poll since 2003.
The survey ending April 5 came as the indomitable Dow Jones Industrial Average [.DJIA 12426.75 32.85 (+0.26%) ] touched its highest intraday point since the two-year bull market began.
Middle East turmoil, an Irish bailout, fears of a municipal bond crisis, a nuclear disaster in Japan and an impending end to the Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing has failed to keep the market down this year. And the bears are simply done fighting the tape.
Bears collapsed to just 15.7 percent of those surveyed from a 23.1 percent part of the pie just one week ago, according to the weekly survey of financial newsletter writers by research firm Investors Intelligence. That 32 percent drop is the biggest in a single week since a 37 percent switchover in 2003, according to Bespoke Investment Group’s analysis of the II data.
“That action in the face of still ongoing negative news from around the world was certainly impressive and it reinforced the perception that US stocks were still offering value,” wrote Mike Burke and John Gray of Investors Intelligence, in the report. “A week ago we noted the speed of the (equity) move from the March lows didn't allow for much reaction from the advisors. However, another week of markets moving higher was clearly enough for many newsletter editors to make a shift.”
Dow Jones Industria...(.DJIA)
12426.75 32.85 (+0.26%%)
Dow Jones Global Indexes
Note that bullish investors now take up 57 percent of the total pie in this week’s survey, while the other 27 percent fit a category of investors who are expecting a pullback, but are still generally long-term bullish.
This survey is often used as a contrarian indicator, so a jump of this magnitude may give other bulls the chills on concern the long trade has gotten too crowded. After all, if everyone is bullish, who is there left out there to convert into buyers and lift the market higher?
Burke and Gray say this much in their accompanying commentary: “At the end of last August's market lows the bulls were as few as 29.4%, suggesting a time to buy. The latest reading suggests increased danger. At the October 2007 top the bulls were 62.0%.”
History shows that they may be onto something, as the market’s returns tend to slow or turn negative when sentiment reaches such an extreme.
“While the market has averaged modestly positive returns over the next one, three and six months” following 30 percent drops in bearish sentiment, wrote the Bespoke analysts in their report. “the returns have been below the average returns for all one, three and six month periods since 1975.”
In the 15 other occasions since 1975, when the number of bears in this survey collapsed by more than a third, the S&P 500 has averaged a 0.1 percent return one month out, a 0.8 percent return three months out and a 1.9 percent return six months out, according to Bespoke.
“The rise in equity prices today effectively ‘steals’ away part of the forward-looking one, three and six-month returns,” said Alan Zafran, a partner with Luminous Capital. “So the returns are positive, but most of the upside in the stock prices is captured immediately at the time that the sentiment has improved. Bottom line: It’s tough to time the market.”
Bears were warned numerous times in this forum by the winners that contribute here. If only melly and other assorted doomsayers had spent some time embracing the ideas of the winners instead of ridiculing them , they could had participated in the magnificent rises of the past 2 years.
All I can say is
[;)]______________________________________________________
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Mrben Joined: 25 Oct 03
Replies: 2828 25 Jan 11 03:09
Im with you there johhnie re gold.Im thinking the same as whippet, first stop around 1250, the lower and lower
I have a long range bet based on gold going under 1000 in the last 3 mths of 2011 and the first 3 mths of 2012.
Replies: 2828 25 Jan 11 03:09
Im with you there johhnie re gold.Im thinking the same as whippet, first stop around 1250, the lower and lower
I have a long range bet based on gold going under 1000 in the last 3 mths of 2011 and the first 3 mths of 2012.
Mrben Joined: 25 Oct 03
Replies: 2687 27 Dec 10 04:13
What you find is that when all the predictions are for catastrophy its plain sailing.
When booms are predicted, recession soon follows.
Gold down, silver down, USD up- thats the way to bet from here.
I can hear melly chocking on his cornflakes from here.
Replies: 2687 27 Dec 10 04:13
What you find is that when all the predictions are for catastrophy its plain sailing.
When booms are predicted, recession soon follows.
Gold down, silver down, USD up- thats the way to bet from here.
I can hear melly chocking on his cornflakes from here.
IN SUMMARY:
Those who traded MrBean's predictions have blown up, those who directly took the other side of the trade are rolling in dough
Those who traded MrBean's predictions have blown up, those who directly took the other side of the trade are rolling in dough
Thing is though, this article is suggesting that the bears may soon be right.
When sentiment is at an extreme positive, that is the time to sell.
When sentiment is at an extreme negative, that is the time to buy.
I don't think this bull market has run it's course just yet, but keep one eye out for a reversal.
When sentiment is at an extreme positive, that is the time to sell.
When sentiment is at an extreme negative, that is the time to buy.
I don't think this bull market has run it's course just yet, but keep one eye out for a reversal.
Silver's only up 300% from it's 2009 lows, so I guess the doomsdayer's should be disappointed...
but keep one eye out for a reversal
am i seeing things?!
am i seeing things?!
MrBen, the fact that 'prices' have gone up doesn't in any way disprove or counter claims of impending hyperinflation.
Money supply has been kept up, but there is no proof that the value of dollar currency is correct. The fact that bears no longer want to bid against asset prices doesn't make a big case either way.
Regarding gold, I don't think you'll ever see $1200 ever again. Ever! Gold is being traded right now as a back-up reserve currency. Right now!!
This is not being done properly and the metal itself is not moving to cover anywhere like the contracts. So this 'false market' will explode when physical possession starts to take greater priority. The price of an ounce of gold will probably hit $2000 by year-end rather than $1000.
Still learning,
ahosang
Money supply has been kept up, but there is no proof that the value of dollar currency is correct. The fact that bears no longer want to bid against asset prices doesn't make a big case either way.
Regarding gold, I don't think you'll ever see $1200 ever again. Ever! Gold is being traded right now as a back-up reserve currency. Right now!!
This is not being done properly and the metal itself is not moving to cover anywhere like the contracts. So this 'false market' will explode when physical possession starts to take greater priority. The price of an ounce of gold will probably hit $2000 by year-end rather than $1000.
Still learning,
ahosang
Yes you are seeing things you dullard denis.
I stated numerous times on that other thread that I didn't actually disagree with your reasoning, it is just you are probably 1-2 years early with your thinking.
Being right at the wrong time is one of the biggest mistakes you can make. The right thing to do upon spotting a potential scenario unfolding, is to bide your time. This is why all these bears have done tons of money over the past 2 years. They are right in their thinking that the current trend will eventually collapse, as it is built entirely on a house of cards, but wrong in their timing. You have unfortunately made this common mistake by selling your entire portfolio in the middle of a dip.
This really is investing 101, please familiarize yourself with it.
I stated numerous times on that other thread that I didn't actually disagree with your reasoning, it is just you are probably 1-2 years early with your thinking.
Being right at the wrong time is one of the biggest mistakes you can make. The right thing to do upon spotting a potential scenario unfolding, is to bide your time. This is why all these bears have done tons of money over the past 2 years. They are right in their thinking that the current trend will eventually collapse, as it is built entirely on a house of cards, but wrong in their timing. You have unfortunately made this common mistake by selling your entire portfolio in the middle of a dip.
This really is investing 101, please familiarize yourself with it.
i just cant see how this bull market has another 1-2 years left in with oil at $125 a barrel. we will have to wait and see
What bull market? Measured in what depreciating fiat currency?
What you are seeing is a massive liquidity FED/CB intervention driven market and one which reflects......INFLATION through the debasement of the USD. Nothing more, nothing less.
Price the markets in the only currency which can't be reproduced by a CB's printing press and see how "bull" these markets have really been. (Hint: it's yellow)
That's why most of the calls made on these forums by our resident experts MrBean and Wipeout have been consistently wrong. They don't understand the key fundamental driving these markets right now. LIQUIDITY.
How long can the FED continue on it's QE/ZIRP policy without breaking the buck is the key question. Nothing else matters.
What you are seeing is a massive liquidity FED/CB intervention driven market and one which reflects......INFLATION through the debasement of the USD. Nothing more, nothing less.
Price the markets in the only currency which can't be reproduced by a CB's printing press and see how "bull" these markets have really been. (Hint: it's yellow)
That's why most of the calls made on these forums by our resident experts MrBean and Wipeout have been consistently wrong. They don't understand the key fundamental driving these markets right now. LIQUIDITY.
How long can the FED continue on it's QE/ZIRP policy without breaking the buck is the key question. Nothing else matters.
Actually to be fair to Whippet, some of his recent calls are at least grounded in reality and he's shied away from defending unattainable positions.
MrBean on the other hand continues to post epic drivel despite the fact he's been consistently wrong on just about everything he's ever posted on this forum.
MrBean on the other hand continues to post epic drivel despite the fact he's been consistently wrong on just about everything he's ever posted on this forum.
Mr Ben Sir, i'm not here to argue with people over the internet, but how on Earth a person of your alleged money making ability can be so gullible and easily fooled (unless you are indeed a fisherman) is beyond me.
First of all, a two year bull market in dow jones stocks? As Menelaus says this is based on nothing but inflation based on the creation of 'money' by a privately owned central bank serving its own self interests. It's in the interests of the banks to keep this ponzi scheme going and the mainstream media lap it up. How many articles have you seen about the bull markets in gold and silver? Gold breaking all time highs, silver making multi decade highs. Real assets are the only way to protect wealth and the stock market is in for a major correction in the next few years. Propping up the stock market is just a tool for the fed to say QE2 is working. This allows them to start talking about a recovery. The fact is this money printing is papering over the huge cracks and is designed purely to keep the game going a little longer.
As for your long term bet, I won't mock you, I will just simply ask why? As someone who has spent thousands of hours researching precious metals I don't see any convincing argument that you can come up with but I would like to see you try.
The following is copied from a website and isn't my work. Source: http://seekingalpha.com/article/262524-dow-gold-ratio-following-strong-resistance-lower-will-it-continue
# Back in 1999, it took nearly 45 ounces of gold to buy the DJIA.
# On Friday March 6 of 2009 the Dow-gold ratio hit a 17-year low of 7.03.
# As of Today (April 7, 2011) it only takes 8.51 ounces of gold to buy the DOW.
I realise there has been a rise since March 6th 2009.In November 2008 the fed began money pri- sorry, 'quantitative easing'.
So, with respect, please explain why you would short gold? The Chinese would buy it back up so fast if it even hit 1300. It won't hit 1000 again in our life time, if ever. If it does, call me out on it and I shall hail you a genius.
First of all, a two year bull market in dow jones stocks? As Menelaus says this is based on nothing but inflation based on the creation of 'money' by a privately owned central bank serving its own self interests. It's in the interests of the banks to keep this ponzi scheme going and the mainstream media lap it up. How many articles have you seen about the bull markets in gold and silver? Gold breaking all time highs, silver making multi decade highs. Real assets are the only way to protect wealth and the stock market is in for a major correction in the next few years. Propping up the stock market is just a tool for the fed to say QE2 is working. This allows them to start talking about a recovery. The fact is this money printing is papering over the huge cracks and is designed purely to keep the game going a little longer.
As for your long term bet, I won't mock you, I will just simply ask why? As someone who has spent thousands of hours researching precious metals I don't see any convincing argument that you can come up with but I would like to see you try.
The following is copied from a website and isn't my work. Source: http://seekingalpha.com/article/262524-dow-gold-ratio-following-strong-resistance-lower-will-it-continue
# Back in 1999, it took nearly 45 ounces of gold to buy the DJIA.
# On Friday March 6 of 2009 the Dow-gold ratio hit a 17-year low of 7.03.
# As of Today (April 7, 2011) it only takes 8.51 ounces of gold to buy the DOW.
I realise there has been a rise since March 6th 2009.In November 2008 the fed began money pri- sorry, 'quantitative easing'.
So, with respect, please explain why you would short gold? The Chinese would buy it back up so fast if it even hit 1300. It won't hit 1000 again in our life time, if ever. If it does, call me out on it and I shall hail you a genius.
whilst i am firmly in the 'end-of-the-world-is-nigh' camp with menelaus and j2blue i would disagree that the stock market rally is entirely down to currency debasement. it has contributed for sure but for me the main driver was that the oil price went down to $40ish a barrel. at this low price a stock recovery was guaranteed. despite QE2 stocks have not gone up in the last year anywhere like they did in 2009.
i also dont agree that precious metals give an exactly accurate picture of the level of currency devaluation - i think the gold/silver price exaggerates it somewhat due to fear and speculation. (not that i am saying for a moment that there hasnt been a lot of devaluation!)
i also dont agree that precious metals give an exactly accurate picture of the level of currency devaluation - i think the gold/silver price exaggerates it somewhat due to fear and speculation. (not that i am saying for a moment that there hasnt been a lot of devaluation!)
Surely it is an incontestable fact that the markets are falling eventually?
What is the anti thesis; The markets will rise forever?
The big question is will they rise further before the fall?
Moi? i do not understand how they are at the level they are. I trust those who blame it on money printing. Sounds likely but why hasn't the market seen through this; are they idiots?
A good way to check how people feel about money is to check gold. How's it doing now?
What is the anti thesis; The markets will rise forever?
The big question is will they rise further before the fall?
Moi? i do not understand how they are at the level they are. I trust those who blame it on money printing. Sounds likely but why hasn't the market seen through this; are they idiots?
A good way to check how people feel about money is to check gold. How's it doing now?
Surely it is an incontestable fact that the markets are falling eventually?
In real terms.
In nominal terms they can rise indefinitely if the will is there to kick the can down the road.
In real terms.
In nominal terms they can rise indefinitely if the will is there to kick the can down the road.
Melv it's wall street. A land of greed and insider trading. You would be amazed how many people cannot see the giant financial tsunami heading straight for us. The media, the fed and world governments are desperately trying to paper over the cracks and we now live in a world where to question anything makes you either a nutter or a terrorist.
QE is the giant shot of crack to the junkie wall street traders to paraphrase Gerald Celente.
Good to see you agree Denis, I think you talk a lot of sense. I do believe though instead of giving us the end of worlders tag or Mr Ben's 'doomsday losers' we'd prefer to be known as realists!
Mr Ben would do well to do a little research on world financial history. Perhaps he could start with the American Continental, German hyperinflation and the fall of the Roman Empire.
QE is the giant shot of crack to the junkie wall street traders to paraphrase Gerald Celente.
Good to see you agree Denis, I think you talk a lot of sense. I do believe though instead of giving us the end of worlders tag or Mr Ben's 'doomsday losers' we'd prefer to be known as realists!
Mr Ben would do well to do a little research on world financial history. Perhaps he could start with the American Continental, German hyperinflation and the fall of the Roman Empire.
yep, just like the roman empire we will fail through lack of energy growth. in their case slaves, in our case oil
Was mainly talking about them fighting expensive wars all over the place which they couldn't afford like the US is now!
same thing really - the romans were fighting the wars because their empire was under pressure as it ran out of energy to sustain it
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