^^ wot he said.

Go look on the 20 year chart and come back to me. All you are trying to trade is noise at the moment.

Go look at the 2000 and 2008 crashes - did stocks crash from their top to the bottom overnight? No.

Furthermore, these two crashes are completely different beasts to what is happening now. Do you seriously think that $150 oil would cause stocks to crash overnight? You are stark raving mad if you do. Assuming oil did hit $150 and stay there, and that did impact stocks - it would be a slow and painful death over a period of a year or more, not an overnight crash.   

Top investors can't even predict highs/lows properly. What chance do you have? You are just p1ssing into the wind with your current strategy, and will end up wasting money doing this long term.

Again - this isn't a debate on your opinions of the fundamentals. These are fine. Your strategy is horrible though and will do you no favours.

Not really sure why you are getting so uptight about this - you have admitted yourself that you aren't an expert, and the info I am suggesting here is pretty common knowledge amongst anyone who has even bothered to formulate even a simple strategy for investing (you do realise there is more to it than simply picking good stocks, right?). Most of it is in the book "reminiscences of a stock operator" in fact. Go read it.

No - you are missing my point. There is no point being right if you are a year too early. I mean, stocks are bound to come down at some point, but what evidence do you have that it is exactly now? All evidence suggests we are still in a bull market.   

The reason I mention that there will not be a crash (by that, I mean significant rapid sell off over a short period of time), is because you seemed to be obsessed with trying to pick the top of the market. If there isn't going to be a crash, rather a slow change of trend, then there is no rush to bail out of your positions.

Here is a strategy that works better:

Wait till you think the market has peaked, and there has actually been a bit of a sell off before exiting (and to do this, do not look at any charts under 10 years). This is a far better plan than trying to arbitrarily pick the top. You have absolutely zero chance of doing that, and will, almost certainly, get a better exit point by selling on the way down after a peak. There is also a psychological advantage doing this - tell me, what would you do, if you sold on monday, and the stocks kept going up for another 6 months to a year, or even longer?

Anyway, as for you trying to pick the top - what evidence do you have that it has peaked other than a whim? Did you check out the 10 or 20 year chart like I said? I can't see anything other than noise on the one I'm looking at.



the last time oil hit $150 in 2008 it caused a rapid and steep crash so i dont know why u think if it happened again it would cause 'a slow and painful death over a year or more'


No, just no. I'm not even going to begin to tell you what is wrong with that statement. Go look at a chart of the FTSE overlaid with the oil price and come back to me on that.

surely if you believe that the oil price is high enough at the moment to stop the market (which i do) and that its only going to get higher in the mid-term (which i do) then it makes perfect sense to sell yr stocks.

No. It makes perfect sense to hold your stocks and hedge with oil - you have no evidence the market has peaked. If you are very unlucky, stocks will go down and oil up, and you will break even. If as I expect, oil and stocks both go up, you will make more. I can't really see a scenario where oil and stocks plummet, unless there is another '08 style sub prime crash.

Stocks - down. The question is, is this as bad as kobe was? Certainly a bigger earthquake, but has it caused more damage? Kobe caused 2.5% of GDP worth of damage. Sendai looks to have been hit hard in this one, it is a slightly smaller city than kobe. Now I have no idea of general economy at the time, but there was an 8.5% sell off on the NIKKEI after the kobe quake (jan 15th 1995). There was also an additional sell off till july that year (totaling ~25%). 

Oil - No the oil price won't drop. There was no shortage of supply anyway, yet the market has ignored this because of fears for the rest of the area (i.e saudi).

IMO - long US, short JPN

japan imports 4.4 million BBL of oil a day.This will dwindle to sfa in the coming weeks.Say 1 mill a day

you cannot be serious

are u seriously saying that the way to predict the stock market is to look solely at the historical graph??!

Are you an idiot? Go look at any chart. How can you tell the market has peaked? Like I said, you are a complete guesser who has absolutely no clue. I don't really care if you listen to me or not, but you will lose profits investing like this long term. About time you bucked your ideas up and actually did some research.

because oil is $115 ffs!! how many times do i have to say it??!

i knew it was only a matter of time before you resorted to insults. god bless x

Saudi was the big issue re oil, Libya is more a regional stability issue as their production levels isn't substantial.
The Japan nuclear issue will create demand (temporarily) for other energy options.
Nikkei down but the Yen should strengthen.

as for Japan, apart from the devastated areas, the disaster could prove a strong economic stimulus, and the Japanese are a very resilient and stoic culture, and technically very well suited to rebuild recovery.

a strong yen isn't a disadvantage in a rebuilding phase given Japan lack of natural resources, at least in the near term.

are you implying dennis that demand will remain unchanged?Why so?

of course im not implying that demand will be unchanged. i was merely incredulous at the figure of 1 million barrels estimated

I sold the lot last week, except my GSK shares. My S & P short is looking pretty healthy too!
Well done Sir Denis on your timing.

Let me get this straight - you are congratulating him because the FTSE has fallen 2.29% in 2 days, for reasons other than why he sold?

This might be funny if it wasn't so sad. How clueless can you get? On second thoughts, don't answer that. I can see by your refusal to sell your GSK shares and invest in a decent company that the answer is obviously "a lot more".

Are the two cronies still patting each other on the back now about their excellent "timing"?

FTSE:

9th March - Close at 5927.

1st April - Close at 5991.


Congrats on selling in the middle of a bull market on noise. Is your trigger finger getting itchy yet? I give it 6 months before you decide to get back in.

er...so its gone up 64 points in about 3 weeks and you have come to the conclusion that there is still a lot more upside to come? Why is it not 'just noise'? We'll see where its at in 6 months time when oil is at $200 and china and the USA are squaring up over QE

i think you'll find i havent been crowing about 'excellent timing' if you bother to read the thread (which obviously u dont - u prefer to make up stuff to suit). i merely stated the opinion that i dont see a lot of upside at the moment. time will tell if im wrong. i wish u'd stop being so vindictive. if in a year's time im proved wrong then so be it

Sir Denis, you're probably wise selling up if you're uncertain, nothing worse than blindly following the advice of others, and we all have different risk profiles and goals. If you're not comfortable/fairly confident of your investments then it's not worth the sleepless nights. But there are always opportunities and there always multiple influencing factors, it's never just one thing (eg oil). Also don't focus too much on indexes, they don't say enough about what individual stocks are doing or when/which to buy.
main buys from first 2 weeks of Feb:
MBLX +22%
NZX +26%
NZO +10%

and in reply to polybot yr right that its never one thing exclusively but it just happens to be my opinion that by far the most important single factor in the health of the global economy and equities is the oil price. maybe im wrong, we'll see - oil about $120 now - the world cant afford it imo

Judging from your posts over a number of different fora denis, you are a bit of a dullard, and a hysterical one at that. It is pointless even trying to explain anything to you. I advise you to go read a book before you lose all your money on the markets. Ta.