Tradefair & Financials
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09 Mar 11
23:37
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16 Nov 08
im no financial expert so feel free to shoot me down/enlighten me, but is there not a massive correlation between oil price and the stock market?
when oil peaked at $148 in 2008 the market crashed. With oil back down to $40 the recovery came and has continued as the oil price has crept up. but now we're getting to the danger zone. can their be any other result than a crash some time in the near future? i.e. some time this year probably.
At the very least i cannot see how their can be any upside to stocks with oil over $100. is it a no-brainer to sell up now? i think so but i would welcome other opinions!
when oil peaked at $148 in 2008 the market crashed. With oil back down to $40 the recovery came and has continued as the oil price has crept up. but now we're getting to the danger zone. can their be any other result than a crash some time in the near future? i.e. some time this year probably.
At the very least i cannot see how their can be any upside to stocks with oil over $100. is it a no-brainer to sell up now? i think so but i would welcome other opinions!
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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bothQuBwhDU
this video explains the correlation well. seems that once oil gets higher than $80ish/barrel there's trouble for stocks. (perhaps with dollar devaluation that figure might be nearer $100/barrel now?) |
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I agree and can't understand why it is not happening now. How many things need to go wrong? Oil over $100, US debt spiralling out of control, the PIGS dragging Europe towards it's knees, Mass worldwide unemployment, food & commodity prices rising, significant inflation problems .....
I have shorted the June S & P with a spread bet. |
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well i've flogged most of my shares today. needless to say i wish i'd done it yesterday as most of my shares had taken a hit today! always the bloody way innit?! particularly rio tinto which conveniently decided to plunge about 4% today before i sold!
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Where are you going to put your hard earned?
I am currently ca 30% mining fund (mostly gold & silver), ca 20% metals managed funds ca 30% cash & 20% GSK |
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I sold my SSE shares today for a small profit
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Rio & their mates would not have done me too many favours today.
 These are two of the funds I have. http://funds.ft.com/firststate/investmentuk/CFRESP/assets http://funds.ft.com/JPMorgan/assetmanagement/SPCOM/assets .. |
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At least GSK and the S&P are going in the right direction for me today
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im afraid im the last person to ask for investment advice! i inherited a fairly large amount of money a few years ago and lets just say its been a steep and rocky learning curve trying to put it in a good place! i've got about half of it in gold and silver and the rest in cash now. it just seems to me that we're approaching 2008 all over again - a too high oil price causing a global crash. as i said above imo the stock market 'recovery' was purely enabled by a comparitively low oil price. with oil back over 100 a barrel the only way is down imo.
if its just like 2008 then gold and silver will take a hit as well. maybe cash is the best place to be now... (yes i know interest rates are sh1t but at least u cant lose money! (nominally)) |
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i think i should probably sell off my silver now but its always easier to do nothing!
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I'm starting to think that everything is going down the pan, including gold and silver. I'm tempted to
stick a fair whack in the below bonds. While inflation probably exceeds the return, you may be losing less than in most other options. http://www2.postoffice.co.uk/finance/savings-investments/growth-bonds .. |
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or maybe I'll just short the arrrse out of everything
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take a look at the 3-year chart for yr first asset fund (i havent looked at the 2nd). it bombed in mid-2008 (high oil price) and since then has steadily climbed up to what looks to me a plateau since start of 2011. this pretty much mirrors the stock market performance (and the inverse of the oil price). I dont know when u invested in this fund but im assuming you've made a decent profit.
Honestly, if i were you i'd get the fck out of it now while the going's good. its had a very nice run but all good things come to an end. high oil price is the killer. its a no-brainer imo. |
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its very hard to be sure and im certainly no expert but IF we get a repeat of 2008 then there will be an oil spike followed by a crash of stocks, commodities AND oil. if this happens then u want to be in readily available cash so u can buy stocks/commodities on the cheap just like late 2008/early 2009. however, whether things will pan out the same way this time i dunno
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i looked at the post office bond but there's a few issues i have with it.
1) if there is another big crash due to high oil price we may well get DEFLATION again for a period, so not good for RPI index. 2) the RPI is probably fiddled by the government. it is in their interests to try to downplay the rate of inflation, especially as they are so impotent about it. 3) yr locked up for 5 years |
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the fact is in a declining world economy (yes i am a peak-oiler!) its pretty much impossible to preserve yr wealth long-term.
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If the Fed announces QEIII stocks can start there mystical levitation process once again for a couple of months.
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well maybe QE has some effect on stocks but i really think by far the most important factor is the oil price. i think we're due another massive spike - maybe $200 or more. they all talk about OPEC opening the taps because they're terrified of scaring the markets but its all bullsh1t (capitalism runs on bullsh1t and oil). OPEC has FCK ALL spare capacity and the markets are slowly realising this. its gonna get ugly imo
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'Brent crude oil pushed back above $115 a barrel as fighting in Libya intensified, and after the Opec crude oil producers’ cartel said it saw no need to hold an emergency meeting to ease oil supply fears.'
people think they can just turn on the taps!! they're not even HOLDING A FCKING MEETING TO TALK ABOUT IT!! |
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Any views on this?
http://www.rns-pdf.londonstockexchange.com/rns/5755C_-2011-3-8.pdf ... |
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i havent the foggiest what its about!! care to enlighten me
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It's a Lloyds bond. 5 years paying 5.5% per annum
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i see. is that widely available? the choice is fairly simple imo in that investing is the same as it ever was in that you can go for low risk/low return or higher risk/higher return, except that now the cards are stacked against you. the essentials in life are sure to go up more than 5.5% over a reasonable period of time (say 5 years) so you are gonna lose a bit of spending power in a bank bond.
the alternative is to keep yr money at hand, wait for the stock crash (and oil crash), and buy stocks at a low price. this assumes that we are set for 2008 all over again. i dunno if the exact same scenario will play out. my tip would be to hold onto readily available cash for now as im sure with oil over $100 the economy and stocks are gonna get very shakey again and u want to have options. |
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the best u can hope for is to reduce the inevitable decline of yr personal wealth but its a lot easier said than done! its a bit like trying to plug a failing **** and running out of fingers! (oo-er!)
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ffs - d1ke
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crisis of the week is tomorrow's "day of rage", if that turns out to be a flop and libya starts to resolve you may see some buying.
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here's one for next week, remember to wear your tinfoil hats....
On March 19, the moon will swing around Earth more closely than it has in the past 18 years, lighting up the night sky from just 221,567 miles (356,577 kilometers) away. On top of that, it will be full. And one astrologer believes it could inflict massive damage on the planet. Richard Nolle, a noted astrologer who runs the website astropro.com, has famously termed the upcoming full moon at lunar perigee (the closest approach during its orbit) an "extreme supermoon." When the moon goes super-extreme, Nolle says, chaos will ensue: Huge storms, earthquakes, volcanoes and other natural disasters can be expected to wreak havoc on Earth. (It should be noted that astrology is not a real science, but merely makes connections between astronomical and mystical events.) |
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8.4 mag earthquake has just hit Japan, the moon men may be right.....
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"moon man" Ken Ring
http://www.predictweather.com/ArticleShow.aspx?ID=339&type=home |
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That's the earthquake and a potential deadlock from the Euro meeting to add to the mix
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SDEH, I'm not sure if that is available to all. I am a halifax account holder and have a very small number of lloyds shares
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libya starts to resolve
yeah right. maybe resolve into civil war |
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Factsheet on the Lloyds bond
http://www.halifax.co.uk/filestore/Lloyds_TSB_Sterling_Retail_Bond_Factsheet_March_2011.pdf ... |
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'day of rage' flopped, markets bounced back.
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Bears gone bankrupt yet again. I'm not really sure why people feel the constant need to try and predict the exact start of a reversal. That is not the way to make money, in fact you will lose your money several times over before you get lucky and manage to pick the start.
Here is news for you - the bull market will continue whilst QE2 or even QE3 (if it happens) is ongoing. Until then, keep your powder dry. There will be an opportunity to short the market but it isn't yet. |
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yr entitled to yr opinion but i cant see any upside whilst oil is over $100/barrel
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p.s. selling yr shares at a decent profit is a funny way to go 'bankrupt'
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you should be selling shares when it is obvious a reversal has happened. A short term blip is not the time to be selling. Furthermore, trying to blindly predict the exact start or end of a trend is futile and idiotic. Bears have been repeating your opinion for every day for the past year or so. Where are they now? All of them have lost money several times over.
These facts are all highlighted in the book, "reminiscences of a stock operator". Please go read it. |
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you should be selling shares when it is obvious a reversal has happened. A short term blip is not the time to be selling
erm... and exactly how does one know the difference between an 'obvious reversal' and a 'short-term' blip before its too late? Bears have been repeating your opinion for every day for the past year or so. Where are they now? All of them have lost money several times over. erm... considering the FTSE has only gone up about 5% in the last year they havent lost much have they? i repeat my assertion that the primary factor in the stock market is oil prices. when they were low in 2009 the stocks shot up, in 2010 with higher oil prices they went up less, and in 2011 with $100+ oil prices they are struggling |
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What do you mean "too late"? Even assuming there is a crash like 2008, there would still be plenty of time to get out.
If you are a long term investor, which you obviously are, it is fairly stupid to bail out after a 2% blip on a complete hunch. If you are going to do this, then you might as well just become a day trader. Fair enough, if stocks continue to trend lower, then might be the time, but as it is, 2% is not sufficient to be bailing out. Oil prices increasing could well cause another recession - but markets are not simply going to crash overnight. More like, as oil trends gradually higher, stocks will trend gradually lower. There is plenty of time to actually evaluate what is happening, and make an informed decision based on facts. Anyway, in your position, instead of simply selling everything, a much better play would be to go long oil as a hedge, and re-evaluate the state of your stocks in a month or more. Like I say, you might get lucky, and manage to predict the exact start of the reversal, but equally, you could very likely miss another continuation of this trend as has been happening for the last year. Markets have been ignoring fundamentals for a while now. Like I said, you need to re evaluate your investment strategy. Your opinions are perfectly good and valid, but your approach isn't. You are trying to do things beyond your capabilities (i.e trying to predict the exact start of a reversal, which even the experts can't do very well). Furthermore, being right a few months too early is no good. I agree with you that we are likely to slip into another recession with high oil, but I am keeping my powder dry for a few months yet to see how things pan out. |