Tradefair & Financials
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Im thinking down on last weeks closing price 5997.38
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Im betting that ALL markets are headed higher.Maybe shanghai excepted.
Too hard to pick day to day but I'm betting that 18 months from now the DOW will be around 16,000.Thats about 25% higher from here. The footsie could go up say 20%, pushing it beyond 7000. My view is its suicidal to bet on the downside from here.The :crash and burn scenario has a very low probability.Markets want to go higher. Get on!!!!  |
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Stocks are going higher because the value of the currency they are priced in is falling.
I wouldn't get too excited about it. |
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Live4 we all know you are melly.You have an aversion to making money.
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....may be we can all start making money in our sleep Mr Bean......like you.
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With inflation going up, people have less disposable income and may pull money out of the markets. There is so many unemployed, creating a burden on their states and there is less consumer spending. With raw materials going up, companies profits may be hit. The banks still have an awful lot of tier 3 capital. I think the pivot point is going to be this year. Either America go for QE3 or they stop at QE2 and try to cut their huge debt mountain. They can't prop the markets up in the long term, so the markets should absolutely tank down at some point imo. QE3 may delay it, albeit temporarily.
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When you think of it, much of the world is buggered. America are in debt beyond their eyeballs. Europe is buggered. The PIGS are buggered - Portugal, Ireland Greece and Spain's economies are in dire straits, riots on the streets to follow. The UK is buggered (big debts, rising inflation, huge unemployment) Parts of Asia are slightly buggered. (Inflation sky rocketing, food prices flying up, interest rates continuing an up-trend, currency rising fast, which will slow down growth). Egypt and the surrounds buggered ......
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I don't think people are going to withdraw their money from the markets. They are getting bugger all return on their savings elsewhere, which is primarily why they piled in in the first place (that and they saw the markets had been going up for 2 years, so think it's a good time.
). People may have a bit less disposable income, but I don't think the middle classes and up are much worse off than they were a few years ago, in my experience. |