I don't know how you can even argue that I didn't short silver today. I posted on this forum when it was $30.76 saying I did it, and it hit a low of $29.33 at one point. Even if you don't believe I shorted at $31.15, that is still a decent return. Jealousy isn't really an attractive trait. Instead of being bitter, why not just join the party?

[:D][;)]Menelaus
Is there ANYONE on this forum who didn't short gold and silver at the top yesterday and timed today's take-down to perfection?


YES THERE IS---------YOU!!!!!!



Hey trolley boy- why dont you come clean and admit your a total novice? Admit you have self esteem issues and that you need help.

  It takes a real man to admit when he is wrong, even bigger to admit he was a total pretender all along.

   Labrat- your credibilty is now in shreds, you will never be taken seriously here again unless you confess that you are a beginner all along.

In the meantime whippet and I will enjoy cashing in our positions and spending the money on fun and good times.You squeeze back into the dormitory at  the homeless peoples joint.[;)][smiley:crazy]

Whippet, two questions for you:

1. Please explain the method you used, either technical analysis or fundamentals, to reach the conclusions that PM's should have been shorted at that precise moment you shorted at the top, and
2. What vehicle do you use to short Gold & Silver?

I ask this in the sense that the trend line was ABOVE both the 200 MDA and the more important (and the one gold "technicians" use) the 50 MDA as well as the momentum was the other way just making new highs on the CCI. So from a technical analysis point view there was little reason to suspect a sell-off (especially when those booking profits would have done so before the end of the year, not at the start of the following month) and the fundamentals certainly didn't change overnight. Also, the precise timing of your short at the very top of the day before the take-down would make anyone but Blythe Masters blush.

Or, the alternative, you had God whisper it in your ear, or you have a sixth sense that tells you these things, or  you just flipped a coin and hoped for the best?




Mr Bean, you continue to litter this forum with drivel. The louder you rant, the more you expose yourself the ignoramus you really are. The last time I saw anything intelligent posted on this forum by you was..............well, NEVER. So throw another dart on the board, make an imaginary trade, go to sleep and may be you'll wake up richer again.......but not an iota wiser.

As for credibility, that matter was settled long ago when you evidently:

didn't know that money was created as debt,

didn't know that hyperinflation is NOT "huge inflation" nor a monetary event ,

you couldn't even describe the basic methodology of how National Statistics calculates CPI,

nor could you explain that if you expected year-end window dressing why you wouldn't wait to execute your trade and maximize profits.


But all's forgiven, you made an imaginary FX trade, started losing money, went to sleep for a few days, and suddenly.....a miracle......the skies opened over Queensland causing an epic flood.....and your position reversed and it all worked out for you. This conclusively proves you are indeed not just any fool, but a lucky fool at that.

In closing, let me say that you are ignorant beyond belief, more annoying than an ugly cold sore and soon to be very poor, if you are not already. Exchanging posts with you is a complete waste of time and I shant be bothering with you anymore.

hey whippet, dont bother explaining it to him.Let him go away and spend 10 years learning it himself.No free rides here melly.

Menelaus
Whippet, two questions for you:

1I ask this in the sense that the trend line was ABOVE both the 200 MDA and the more important (and the one gold "technicians" use) the 50 MDA as well as the momentum was the other way just making new highs on the CCI. So from a technical analysis point view there was little reason to suspect a sell-off (especially when those booking profits would have done so before the end of the year, not at the start of the following month) and the fundamentals certainly didn't change overnight. Also, the precise timing of your short at the very top of the day before the take-down would make anyone but Blythe Masters blush.


melly, come on, stop posting please.Thats the most amatuerish post I've seen for a long time.Its the sort of question newbies ask at their first seminar.

"little reason to suspect a sell off"???  have you got a ring thru your nose so it easier to lead you around? Please.

Menelaus
I must apologize. I can't go on. After this experience, you may not hear from me for a while.
I don't think that I can summon the strength


FINALLY!!!!!!!!!!

bye melly, say hello to the other labrats and trolleys boys.

my d1ck's tiny

My Cad vs CHF isn't looking too bad either :D happy days .

^^

this lot in the top 1% of the worlds intelligentsia yet they continually waste their precious time with schoolyard bickering. You could've built a new hedge fund with the time spent arguing on here

My bet is you are all liars and are only posting in between stacking shelves and helping old ladies out with their weekly shop. [;)]

Whippet says: "I'm not about to tell you my method of making money, which took years to work out."

Hmmmm, I didn't realize ignorance was proprietary. Learn a new thing every day on this forum...

One chap evidently is using a proprietary formula that allows him to time market top down to the very second, followed by a major take-down, and the obnoxious Australian apparently is making boat loads of money in his sleep. So telling them to get a proper job is not going to fly I'm afraid Sir Denis.

yeah, time to get the gloves off, doesnt sound too nice...

anyway, not to have arguments but to 'render unto caesar' i would like to clarify 2-3 pts.

1- average fx trading duration is not 30 seconds. that might be the duration for algo trading bots, but not for fx trading per se. you have normally spot desks who hold positions for anything between seconds to hours ( but they re market makers, and in that function of liquidity providers they work as human bots ), and prop desks where traders hold their positions for days or weeks. or even months if the prop desk is a macro desk. fx option traders hold their positions for days ( shortest position is on o/n opts ). ah, and of course: soros trade with horizon of months, and thats a fact, trust me. the fact that he has a hft outfit doesnt make him an algo trader the same way he s not a computer programmer if he buys 10million microsoft shares.

2- fxings at month/quarter/year end.
i wouldnt reccomend anyone to play on the fixings unless from the comfort of a city desk. they re regular as swiss watches (you can build models that forecast the amount of ccies needed according to how the asset markets performed in the period), but you need to be very sharp as the fixing happens at 4pm and exactly 4pm, and if you try to fade the move you could end up missing it by seconds and with some good losses. you can easily see a 30-40 points move in the space of few seconds, which is normal considering that the amounts of hedges going thru are easily in the 10s of billions ( according to how big the rebalancing of global ptfolios are needed ). now, try to play the fixing at 4pm on ny eve it s not simple. liquidity is poor ( as a matter of fact some mutual funds require the fixing on the 30th ),but it s poor all day long. the only certainty you got is that between 3.58 and 4.00 some crazy buying will go thru, but you def dont know what s the price going to be at 3.58..so if you want to go short, pick up your level and forget the fixing.

3- australia floods. in normal circumstances a natural disaster is a bullish factor on ccies. after the initial emotions, people start to clculate how much money will need to be repatriated, and how much the rebuilding is going to help the economy. remember the kobe earthquake and the usdyen? even more so in a fiscally fit country like australia where some spending from the government is not going to make a dent in their public finances.

4- i dont know why anyone else got short on the aud and gold. someone im sure has done it looking at charts, or listening to their guts, or even consulting their miraculous winning method ;-)
but there were some big events that couldnt and shouldnt have been neglected.
on xmas day china hiked the rates. few days later china pmi was released and was down for 1st time ( altho still above 50 ), then they semi announced that this yr they ll fight inflation using finally a revaluation, few days more and oz pmi was lower than expected. ( and on top the msci rebalancing for metals which shud punish gold in the coming days.)
add that all the numbers from the us had been coming stronger than expected ( they still are, actually )and you have an explosive situation for liquidity expectations, hence for the commodities ( most of which are used as ccies ), and commodity ccies.
wheter it will go on all year - or even all month - it s all to be seen. but forecasting aud lower was the national and easiest sport around the end of the year. especially after the monster rally it had in the last 10days of the year ( vs the usd but even vs the eur or the peers nzd and cad ).
ehy have a look at my own "2111 forecasts" thread contribution, and even I indicated ( among all the other winners,lol) at least 4 aud-xau-zar short positions to have ( based off the same rationale i m explaining now ).

5- always remember something adam smith was saying some 2-300 yrs ago.
prices are the result of demand and offer. there s no theoretical price of anything in finance. the prices of assets and ccies are only the result of demand and offer, ie of liquidity conditions.

anyway,
have fun with your trading and good luck everyone.

ps menelaus, i found the 'stupid' piece very amusing. did you write it yourself or is a quote form someone else, a movie or something?

nice post JW

your just too polite!.You have given melly the answers he was seeking although i doubt he has the experience to understand it anyway.

re the aussie floods- its actually much worse than it appears.Its being reported in a typical aussie fashion.The " she'll be right" attitude.Floods are supposed to peak either today or tomorrow.The problem is MORE rain is forecast in about 2 weeks time. Currently things have been underwater about 2 weeks and it will take another 2 weeks for the waters to recede.Underwater for a month who really knows the extent of the damage?If it rains heavily again who knows how long underwater.

   The main coal port in QLD reported today it expects to run out of coal to load on either friday or saturday this week.Not a single mine in QLD is working. Not only do the waters have to recede, the clean up done but all the equiptment will have to be repaired or replaced and tested.Word is that there will be no coal for at least 2 months.
  The reality is no one really has any idea how it will play out or  how it affect things in china.They have stockpiles for such a situation.?

   How will it affect the AUD? I wish I knew.

re your point 4. Both gold and AUD were set up to fall.I won't go into the machinations but suffice to say that the price action between the christmas eve close and the nye close were a dead giveway. As you succintly stated its impossible to  catch the window dressing close.Had I not been so positioned in the AUD I would have gone for more gold contracts.In any case it was a big and beautiful result.I wish all trades were that obvious.

   All the best
           Benny.

I'm afraid you have become so bogged down in theory that you are unable to see the wood for the trees anymore.

You were the one who assumed I used some sort of complicated formula. I never confirmed nor denied it.

As you say, it is the fed, in collusion with banks such as JPMorgue, suppressing the price, as I alluded to in my 05 Jan 11 23:46 post. It is almost like clockwork. All that is needed is to start shorting somewhere near the top of the higher high. The best trades are often the simple, common sense ones.

Make no mistake though, there is no way they can keep suppressing the price forever. Things will eventually implode. JPMorgue are short a huge number of paper contracts, and the supply of silver is running out at the Comex. Once people start to shun the worthless fiat then they will be up sh1t creek without a paddle.

And you'd still be WRONG.

There's no such thing as "algo trading and the rest". It's ONE market we're all trading on and one that is dominated by HFT. When I take a position, I don't request that a human take the other side, anyone can, and more often than not it's a HFT computer.

And in this market, I repeat, the avearge FX position is held for 30 seconds.



(p.s. the reason the average for equities is lower is frontrunning by HFT of EVERY trade)

JW, I don't want to argue semantics with you.

Of course Mr Bean CAN have a position open in AUD overnight, or a few days, or as long as he likes. What I am saying is that considering today's volatility and level of CB intervention (we've seen this in the case of CHF, Euro, USD, and some others) it is downright stupid and suicidal to hold positions open while you sleep. You will get slaughtered, and it will mostly fast machines that will be doing the slaughtering.

Yes, the 30 seconds average IS because of HFT which dominates the number of trades on the market. I said that repeatedly in my posts. You can't have a different average for humans and a different average for computers, we are ALL trading on the same market and don't know who the other side of the trade is. So my original statement of "the average FX position is held for 30 seconds" as per Prof. Hudson's study, that you so strongly objected to, is factually correct.

I don't know how you make the giant leap in assuming I own and hold XAU. I don't and never have. I have been posting on this forum at nauseum that those interested in protecting their wealth against fiat debasement through owning gold, should own PHYSICAL gold, not the paper ETF kind.

At any rate, I enjoy trading posts with you, at least they are very intellectually stimulating. Best of luck trading currencies.

Just read the last 60 something posts since I posted and I must say I haven't got a clue what anyone is talking about. Where would I find a decent book on trading currencies?

don't worry about melanie....he used to post on the US racing forum .....got spanked so badly that he retreated to financials ...pmsl .....see the same is happening here.....the most unsuccessful "know it all" you'll ever meet

I applaud your post winston.I was getting worried.I mean what does it take for the penny to drop that melly is a total fraud? This guy is worse than a novice.Hes like a 17yo kid going on his first driving lesson and tell his dad "I know how to drive!"

   Some of the stuff he has posted here is so outrageously see through newbie  its embarrasing to the forum.
  Its obvious to anyone who trades in the real world that melly never has.His postings are so "out there "  real traders just sit there scratching their heads at it.

    This financial forum has been too soft on him.Too polite.We need to take a leaf out of the US racing forum and  give him the treatment he deserves.

Haven't posted my position for a few days now. I sold silver right before the non-farms, at 2850. I then decided to go long after the non-farms results, at 2855.

I thought I was initially onto a winner, when it shot up to 2936. It has now crept back down to 2868, for reasons unknown to me. You would have thought that non-farms coming in at a lot less than was expected, would have given people more appetite for risk averse investments.

Either way, my stop is around where I bought at, so will re-evaluate if that happens. Would have thought we had hit the low for now though, and should see $32 around the end of jan, unless some outside forces are at work (i.e fed/jpmorgue). We shall see.