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bigH
03 Jul 10 17:16
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Date Joined: 04 Apr 03
| Topic/replies: 7,325 | Blogger: bigH's blog
A friend who is an South London estate agent told me that June was a bad month, most of the properties they they took on were either repossessions or forced sales.

This scenario is completely different from March, April, May - the tipping point looks like it has been reached

Expect house prices to plummet

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Replies: 71
By:
tuck
When: 03 Jul 10 19:02
at last house price plummet....after 10 yrs of failed predictions do you still think it is going to happen with the Tories...comme on
By:
Ganton
When: 03 Jul 10 20:57
what more can be done to keep the market propped up?

Banks dont have the capacity to offer mortgage deals like the good old days and interest rates habe nowhere to go but up.

On the plus side rental prices are heading north.
By:
Mc Moonbeam
When: 03 Jul 10 22:07
TIMMMMMBBERRRRRRRRRR !!!!!!!!!!!!
By:
bobby2424
When: 04 Jul 10 22:56
where's chisel when you need him?
By:
chisel
When: 05 Jul 10 11:38
A ridiculous claim from desperate individuals!

Mortgage arets are at all time lows, house prices increasing by 12% in past 15 months ensure that peopel wit mortgageas are able to sell their property at a decent price, and probably plenty enough to cloear any mortgage.

The threat to mortgage lenders was 18 months ago when prices were 20% down, repossessing at that time would have led to massive losses. The slashing of interest rates, QE , ets has saved the banks, and to be honest better rates at higher loan to values are coming out all the time.

Things are defiantely going to be tough for next 18 months, but interets rates are going to be kept low as a result. My advice? Dont panic, The Country is in good hands
By:
Live4
When: 09 Jul 10 16:40
Ridiculous?  If people don't have jobs they can't pay a mortgage Chis.  Unemployment is set to soar over the coming months/years.
By:
Pangloss
When: 09 Jul 10 17:23
Also note the warning from the Bank of England earlier this week that mortgage finance will be more difficult to obtain going forward.

It's all change, and we'd better start getting used to it.
By:
Valero
When: 09 Jul 10 18:25
chisel you are a downright liar.

we dont need to read your carp, we all know people who have being trying to sell their homes without joy.

what a total idiot you are.
By:
KRACKERS
When: 10 Jul 10 07:11
Valero - "what a total idiot you are"
A statement you must be familiar with - chisel states as he sees it.
By:
simple mind
When: 10 Jul 10 10:31
Krackers---I think you'll find that Valero is spot on.

Anyone that claims that
house prices increasing by 12% in past 15 months is a downright liar.
By:
Valero
When: 10 Jul 10 11:41
KRACKERS, very apt.
By:
Utd Fan
When: 11 Jul 10 15:35
My house is up for sale and I popped into my estate agents yesterday and directed them to remarket the property with a 2.5% lower asking price.

I was in the estate agents for around an hour and the phones were very quiet and nobody called in during that hour.

In 2007 the house next to me went for 22% higher than mine is asking at.

I live in one of the most desirable places in the north of england ten minutes walk from the city centre. If it is like this in my area then I would expect it to be much worse around the country.  People cant keep talking up the market and throw incorrect stats around. 

London has its own market so that cant really compare to the rest of the UK.
By:
chisel
When: 12 Jul 10 12:43
Utd fan

I am sorry to say that you are actually wrong. Houses are selling steadily in many parts of teh country, and are certainly not 22% down from the peak now. Live 4 , we have been hearing that unemployment will go through teh roof for 3 years. It simply has not materialised as expected. Mortgage arrears and repossessions are miles lower than experts predicted.

Live 4
Mortgage finance is readily available for customers with decent deposits, and new lenders are coming to the market. There are even mortgage lenders lending to those with poor credit again!! With respect Live 4, teh banks that are lending in teh UK currently are strong companies, who have seen house prices rise 12% since 2008 , ensurin g they are in a much stronger position than they were. Mortgage arrears are low, profit margins are enormous and this has not been a bad playing field for them the padt 18 months. Interest rates are likely to stay 0.5% for forseeable future as Austerity cuts create a difficult financial landscape.
By:
grey shark
When: 12 Jul 10 14:26
utd fan
thanx for the anecdote telling it as it is , hope you sell your house .
By:
Utd Fan
When: 12 Jul 10 17:44
Just looked on right move and two houses I was interested in buying have dropped in asking price by 5% since last week.  Although I am now fully set on going into rented accomadation if I manage to sell. 

My City York is being squeezed at the moment from a sales perspective.  My agency blamed the world cup for the recent quiet spell and they said they will expect it to be quiet over the next six months due to the summer holidays. Sounds to me like they are already building up a raft of excuses.

Maybe York is not a true refelction for the rest of the country but I am saying it how I see it based on true facts.

Thanks gs, me too.
By:
Utd Fan
When: 12 Jul 10 17:45
* six weeks
By:
JML
When: 12 Jul 10 19:33
House prices rise 12% since 2008

Is there no limit to what this loser will claim?

The Halifax index for 2008 ranges from £196,244 to £160,070. It now stands at £166,203.

That ranges from a 15% decreaseto a 3.8% increase.

Where the Fcuk does 12% increase come from.



I am sorry to say that you are actually wrong. Houses are selling steadily in many parts of teh country, and are certainly not 22% down from the peak now


The truth is that house sales in every part of the country have fallen off a cliff and there is no sign of a recovery.

House prices in many parts of the country are 22% or more down from the peak.

If the average is 17%,there must be areas over 22% to compensate for areas where falls have been much lower than 17%,most notably London


Mortgage finance is readily available for customers with decent deposits.

That has always been the case.

and new lenders are coming to the market

Increasing the no of available mortgages 10 fold increases the no of people with enough deposit by 0.
By:
Valero
When: 12 Jul 10 21:13
great post JML

somebody who knows what he is talking about

you feckwit chisel, lowlife scumbag lurking around on a betting forum looking for mortgage business, terrible state of affairs!

UTDfan - excellent idea to sell now, ASAP even at 5-7% drop, and rent for 18-24 months = QUIDS IN
By:
wilson
When: 12 Jul 10 22:56
Have just sold my house to  a couple coming back from Australia. Been on the market since October had 3 viewings. Was valued at 300k in 2006 and have accepted 242k as there is no chain. The other viewers were trying to sell bigger properties and had not even had a viewing in 5 months. I don't know whether prices will drop again, but I do know they won't be going up anytime soon. At the moment I would sooner be outside looking in than inside looking out of the property market.
By:
crediter
When: 12 Jul 10 23:56
dont think drop applies to the south of uk. seems to be its own price market.
By:
crediter
When: 12 Jul 10 23:57
rent for 18-24 months ..dumbest move ever.
By:
grey shark
When: 13 Jul 10 09:35
wilson
good anecdote like Utd fan's , thanx for sharing , be prepared to be told your wrong or accused of lying.
By:
wilson
When: 13 Jul 10 10:03
My property was on the market at 265k I only have a small mortgage so any drop in price was going to come out of me. Houses between 250 and 300k are very hard to sell because of mortgage availability and stamp duty threshold. Only low interest rates are holding the whole thing together, if rates do go up there could be a bloodbath imo.
By:
Valero
When: 13 Jul 10 12:02
yup good point crediter... with vat up to 20% in jan, and nowhere but up for interest rates to go now... renting would be a mugs game.

Laugh
By:
potlis
When: 13 Jul 10 13:07
dont think drop applies to the south of uk. seems to be its own price market.
---------------
LaughHow many more people can the Kensington&Chelsea liferaft take?
By:
crediter
When: 13 Jul 10 16:31
if you dont know south....get a map.....and yeah you keep renting...lol pmsl.
By:
crediter
When: 13 Jul 10 16:32
sussex kent hampshire are in england polis...just arrived or what.
By:
jme
When: 13 Jul 10 16:56
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By:
potlis
When: 13 Jul 10 18:03
if you dont know south....get a map.....and yeah you keep renting...lol pmsl.
----------
Never lived further north than Lambeth, and was an owner before you left your Fathers scrotum.
By:
potlis
When: 13 Jul 10 18:08
sussex kent hampshire are in england polis...just arrived or what.
-----------------------
You missed out Surrey, where you apparently purchased a mansion on an overdraftLaughLaughLaugh

Oh sussex! isn't that where Bognor is?
By:
crediter
When: 13 Jul 10 18:33
no its where son and one daughter are..newick..oh you wouldnt know anyway ...you know surrey huh...or just driven thru it ...apparently it was in fir tree road...epsom downs anywiser ..thought not.
By:
crediter
When: 13 Jul 10 18:34
where u live pot.....
By:
potlis
When: 13 Jul 10 19:47
Retired in Hampshire, previously Tonbridge, Bromley and Lambeth.
Family all over southern suburbs, many in surrey, Sutton, Ewell, Croydon, etc.
Was in surrey two weeks back, tried the new Marriott Country club Hotel on Lingfield racecourse, can highly recommend it.
By:
crediter
When: 13 Jul 10 22:18
any where near fleet...
By:
chisel
When: 14 Jul 10 11:35
Just to add Valero. For such a great post JML is totally wrong. The average House price from Halifax in April 2009 was £154716 and it is now £166203. Nationwide was 151861 and is now £170111. A rise of over 12%

thanks very much
By:
JML
When: 14 Jul 10 11:45
What a d!ckhead.


April 2009 was NOT in 2008.
By:
potlis
When: 14 Jul 10 12:19
any where near fleet
--------------
No, other side of the New Forest.
By:
chisel
When: 14 Jul 10 12:55
JML

As the bottom of the market was a few months after 2008 I am happy to stand corrected. What I should have written is since the market reached its low in April 2009..With respect I was hardly going to state why the market had risen 12% if there were 4 months of drops!!

The end of 2008 was teh watershed though , with Base rate being slashed taht is what sparked the recovery.
By:
billy hill
When: 14 Jul 10 13:07
anyone read the extracts from the FSA report?

2.5 We have undertaken a detailed analysis of affordability, using data from the Living Costs & Food/Expenditure & Food Survey (LCF/EFS), and our Product Sales Data (PSD) and Arrears dataset.
2.6 We used a representative sample of 9,000 households holding a mortgage from the LCF/EFS covering the period 2005 to 2008, to calculate how much money
borrowers had after mortgage payments and living costs were deducted from their income.

The tough new proposals, published in the consultation paper, form part of a major review by the FSA into the UK mortgage market and are based on detailed analysis of past lending decisions, looking at the causes of arrears and repossessions since 2005.

The FSA found that:

    * 46% of households either had no money left, or had a shortfall after mortgage payments and living costs were deducted from their income;
    * Almost half of new mortgages between 2007 and the first quarter of 2010 were provided without a customer having to verify their income;
    * The share of interest-only mortgages has been increasing. At the peak of the market, over 30% of all mortgages were interest-only;
    * Many consumers with no repayment vehicle count on future house price rises or uncertain life events to repay their mortgage and some have no plan at all;
    * Borrowers with a credit-impaired history are particularly vulnerable.
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