Tradefair & Financials
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Time to go short again
Time to go short again
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Replies: 120
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yea the market is pricing in more stimulus talk and is looking for comments to cheer it up, if it gets any hessitation and we dont get it then wel have decent pull back coupled this with slowdown talks from China it could represent another buying op tho. China will loosen its own fiscal policies and the market will move forward again, the market eventually nearly always gets what it wants.
Goring: Do you participate in other forums? |
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tempeted to go short now we could get a nice sell off in the closing hr or a good op to buy for tomor,eeerr aah!!
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jayyceee 10 Aug 10 11:32
Something doesn't make sense here. In europe, we are all implementing austerity measures to cut deficits which "the markets" say are unsustainable. America's is every bit as bad as ours and will get worse if they stimulate further. Is there a reason why they are different? And unless there is, aren't they eventually going to drag us down with them? Yes, there is something different about them - being the world's largest economy (the EU is larger, but not quite a country yet) and, as a result, having the status of reserve currency. As most of their trade is internal, they can afford to trash their currency whenever it suits and revive their exports. However, as you say they can take us with them to an extent as 70% of their GDP is consumer spending - large parts of which go to China and Germany. |
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Both cable and EU getting a pounding today.
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Theirs ur short for you!! bit of a bloodbath today, nice pull back to 11400 could represent a nice buying op,I wont dare go bottom fishing tho, fed going to be forced into doing something
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Stimulus is not a good thing although looking at some of the comments on here its to be lauded.
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Cable short from the daily pivot (1.5693). Looking for 1.555
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Half closed at 1.562. Rest @ break even.
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Rest closed at 1.559.
Will wait for a retracement and another leg down when the US open. |
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for the month of july the USA deficit for the month was 165 billion$.Thats for one month!
More stimulus? come on surely these sorts of monthly deficits already the USA is in permenent stimulus? |
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permenent stimulus, agree! its stimulus package on top of stimulus package, but the packages will be given a different title all the time.
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Whole us system is a massive ponsi scheme, how much oil they got left, when that goes they are baankrupt 20 yrs ?
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Don't be too despondent chaps. See it as an opportunity to makes lots of $$$!
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The US is fine, the trump card is their gas reserves
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Mr Ben
Do you think the market has priced in the potential of a significant slowdown in Chinese real estate? I think they have to a certain extent but theirs more to go in this move, once it does and theirs a good over reaction the market can only shoot up providing Chinese fiscal policies are addressed, thing Oct-Nov could be a very rocky months |
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All very scary. I've put my longs back on here 10270 level in the Dow - bit nervous though. Lifted Gold hedges and am quite long ahead of next week's bond buying etc.
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maybe bio, chinese real estate is ludicrious on any type of analysis.A chinese student here told me that a mortgage in his home area would take 50 years to pay off.He and his friends all say they are not willing to spend all their life paying off such a mortgage.
I used to be super critical of the chineses system based on fundamentals but the govt there has the luxury of pull the levers in any direction it wants to achieve its goals without the annoyance of having to answer to anyone.Hence they can manipulate their economy to any desired level. Hence I don't belive in any china based catastrophy. Based on this week on the dow I'm betting the month will close to the downside.Reality is that its a trading range over about 9600 to 11000. Taking that as a given, its a fantastic time to be trading. Sell when it gets towards 11k and buy back in under 10k. |
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u want to be using wide stops tho. Was talking to a Chinese embassy official that worked in Dublin and he said he could see real estate prices fall 30%. The RMB is to be gradually appreciated this will provide good support for commodities and the markets in general.
The Chinese student payback period of 50yrs is a perfect example that this market is going to come off by 20% at least. |
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http://uk.reuters.com/article/idUKPTIP42198520100813
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gone long on crude now,could rise during asian trade, its forming a base wel hope for some positive economic news to lift the market, wels see and watch it closely
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Yeah, nice trade. I've been shorting medium-dated puts every month instead. Good vol and profit from stagnation too, but it might be time to get rid of the neg. gamma.
I hope you all bought some equities down here, because it's off to the races now. It refused several times to drop any further. |
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Got knocked out at the support levelof $75, we are now at $74, IAM IN AGAIN!!
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Goring, do u trade options? What are your experiences with them?
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Sure, all the time. How do you mean exactly? I did it for a job for over a decade so I'm pretty comfortable with them. :)
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Ow, got a bit rogered on that Phili Fed number. I'm out of short-term spec length in Equities and just long Gold and Crude (short puts) as biggest positions. Looks like we might be in for another few months of down down down and more stimulus nonsense...
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I was introduced to options trader well his engineer but he uses options to give himself a very good return on his money,he mostly uses straddles, whats ur experience with them. His on holidays now but his going showing me in a week or so.like to know ur opinion on them
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Cable closed below 1.55 and finally broke through support.
EU also opened up the week below 1.275. It 'Should' be a short week. Will wait for Frankfurt to push cable higher before shorting. A good area of resistance will be the hourly 20ema (1.549ish), the previous area of support (1.55)or the daily pivot (1.553). Not sure it'll go as high as the DP though. |
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Blimey. Horrible numbers coming out of the US.
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Mrben Joined: 25 Oct 03
Replies: 2499 14 Aug 10 06:27 Based on this week on the dow I'm betting the month will close to the downside.Reality is that its a trading range over about 9600 to 11000. Taking that as a given, its a fantastic time to be trading. Sell when it gets towards 11k and buy back in under 10k. you heard it here first! month will finish lower and next month, september, will finish higher.Pyramid in over the next 2/3 weeks and bail mid october. |
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Standard way to put vol curve trades on. Example, sell short-dated straddle, buy long dated. The theta comes your way and you're long vega (vol). I don't do that much PA because it's two spreads to pay (or 4 for the curve trade), but I do diagonal spreads a lot which are similar. So, say I think Gold is going higher but don't know when. I buy Dec 1250 calls and sell Sep 1250 calls (possible in smaller number and possibly even with lower strike). That way I don't have theta decay, but keep the vol exposure. It's bad if the market rallies very quickly so it's not an extreme bull position, but a mild one. This trade is really the same as the straddle spreads without neutralising the delta.
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In bonds. :)
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dow up 164 then down 140.Market is going nowhere.The daily news does not really matter for the monthly picture.Total range trading. Great for option sellers.
 Looking to buy this week now and keep for less than a month. |
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Just bought
Apple £158. Intel £11.60 Microsoft £15.45 |
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What was the FSTE price at 4.30
Feel ive been cheated by betfair |
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I like this rally...I think it could go much higher
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Why do you like it?
Do you actually have a position? |
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huge rally now after the friday close. Must be nearly 600 points by now.Off what I ask? just the range trading through, the closer we get to 11,000 the more profits I will take.Goes over 11k and I will look to short at a suitable point.
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Mr B
It is a strange trading idea from you . Surely you will make your decision nearer the time depending what news is coming out of the States. My view is that the recent "bad news" is not quite as bad as was reported, if you know what i mean? |
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not really chisel.If I base my decisions on what the news is going to be I will get whippsawed around by the reactions.Also as Im sure you know, the media hints at the news b4 its realeased, the markets react in anticipation.If the actual confirms the rumour most of the move has already happened.If the actual is less than the rumour theres big reversal.This market is neither bear nor bull, its range until proven otherwise.
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Mr B
The point is that if teh market hits 11000 and there is only good news flowing from teh States, would you still sell?? I obviously hope you are buying it all the way up to 11000, in which case taking a slightly more pessimistic view may not be a bad shout.. To be fair to you though you generally have the trend sussed out , and have made some good profits.. Fair play to you ! How was teh remainder of your Thailand trip? |